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Old
12-08-2012, 09:20 AM
  #126
Liferleafer
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Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
Take out Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri and that is most likely Roberto's value.

The amount of risk in taking that contract is ridiculous when you consider both Roberto's age and by the time the NHL returns, he'll more than likely have been out of hockey for a year or more. Who knows if he'll have a monstrous decline that his play last spring hinted at.
Lol...

A. Read the contract. With all of the outs, it's essentially a 5 year deal.
B. His "decline" in play last spring may be attached to the whole team crapping the bed.
C. I could care less about his age, the fact remains that an "old" Luongo is hands down better than ANY of our "young" goalies.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:23 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
leaf fan here .. been following the thread but haven't posted. I think a lot of these are quite close in value, but every time i see Kulemin's name on the board I want to barf.

Kadri
McArthur
Blacker
2nd
You are close,but you will need to replace the bolded with something else. Van has no use for Mac. Now i'm not saying Kuli, but maybe Colborne or something similar.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:25 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
You guys are making it tough, thats our 1C and 3 good pieces out of our pool. This is a one time deal (and because i just watched the rammstein vid)...ok, i'll do it.
I understand. When I did some research and saw Blacker shoots right and it became more important because Vancouver lacks depth RH dmen. What you mean one time deal? Gonna hold you to it Almighty agreed to same deal last night. Nice to see some traction here among Leaf fans.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:26 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
leaf fan here .. been following the thread but haven't posted. I think a lot of these are quite close in value, but every time i see Kulemin's name on the board I want to barf.

Kadri
McArthur
Blacker
2nd
Just made a deal and it was

Bozak
Kadri
Colbourne
Blacker

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:32 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Lol...

A. Read the contract. With all of the outs, it's essentially a 5 year deal.
You're wrong. Current bargaining positions by both the NHL and NHLPA indicate that Roberto's contract could be likened to a kick in the balls to whoever acquires him.

Quote:
B. His "decline" in play last spring may be attached to the whole team crapping the bed.
So what you're saying is that Roberto cannot carry a team. What makes you think he'll perform better for the Leafs than the President's Trophy winning Canucks?

Quote:
C. I could care less about his age, the fact remains that an "old" Luongo is hands down better than ANY of our "young" goalies.
Those that do not learn from history are bound to make the same mistakes. This short-sighted opinion is why the Leafs spent eight years out of the playoffs: trading away young pieces for aging veterans that were on the brink of decline.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:35 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
You're wrong. Current bargaining positions by both the NHL and NHLPA indicate that Roberto's contract could be likened to a kick in the balls to whoever acquires him.



So what you're saying is that Roberto cannot carry a team. What makes you think he'll perform better for the Leafs than the President's Trophy winning Canucks?



Those that do not learn from history are bound to make the same mistakes. This short-sighted opinion is why the Leafs spent eight years out of the playoffs: trading away young pieces for aging veterans that were on the brink of decline.
Nice rationale, starting goalie on back to back president trophy winners cannot carry a team. I know you have been eyeing Burke's job for a while now, no wonder why you are trying to get him fired

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:40 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Just made a deal and it was

Bozak
Kadri
Colbourne
Blacker
To be honest considering lous contract and situation in van I think this is fair value for him, now the only question is will Lou fly or flop in Toronto. Theres risks for both teams considering bozak is the only roster player currently going to van in the deal but theres also no way to know just how well lou will play for the leafs or to project how the prospects going to van will develop. It's a tough call for both sides and I'm sure glad im not burke or gillis in this particular instance.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:45 AM
  #133
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Still going off the same ubsurd Canuck fan demands... I wonder when fans will realize that any player's value is limited to slightly greater than what the second most interested team is willing to pay...

So far the best offer is Antropov, Little & a 2nd for Luongo & Ballard, and I've yet to see a Jets fan provide any reasoning why they'd give up on their 25 year old goaltender while adding $3m to the goaltending position and a $4m+ defenceman they don't need.

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:46 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Still going off the same ubsurd Canuck fan demands... I wonder when fans will realize that any player's value is limited to slightly greater than what the second most interested team is willing to pay...
Got some Leaf fans on board for a new offer, getting some traction. Here come the walkers!

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Old
12-08-2012, 09:54 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Still going off the same ubsurd Canuck fan demands... I wonder when fans will realize that any player's value is limited to slightly greater than what the second most interested team is willing to pay...

So far the best offer is Antropov, Little & a 2nd for Luongo & Ballard, and I've yet to see a Jets fan provide any reasoning why they'd give up on their 25 year old goaltender while adding $3m to the goaltending position and a $4m+ defenceman they don't need.
So what's the second most interested team willing to pay? And how exactly is every team able to know each other's offer? Trades aren't negotiated in public.

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12-08-2012, 10:03 AM
  #136
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So what's the second most interested team willing to pay? And how exactly is every team able to know each other's offer? Trades aren't negotiated in public.
Trades aren't negotiated in public... but a negotiating position only comes from the next best alternative. Mike Gillis can't get more out of Brian Burke, unless he's got a better alternative. In this thread, you've got idiotic Leafs fans negotiating against themselves, and Canucks fans coming up with asking prices that have zero foundation.

I don't know what the 2nd most interested team is willing to pay... so far the only fans that seem interested in Luongo are Leafs fans, and one Jets fan who's yet to provide an explanation as to why his proposal makes any sense.

One team being interested establishes his value at a 7th round pick. If fans of other teams fans want to beat that, then obviously the price goes up until only one team is prepared to part with the level of value.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:04 AM
  #137
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I've liked the value of the most recent proposals, but considering van is in win now mode what about somthing like this.

To
Van
Liles
Bozak
Colborne/Ashton
Blacker
2013 cond 2nd based on making the playoffs turns to a first if the leafs make it past the first round.

Toronto
Lou
Alberts

Van gets a young scoring 2-3c a top 4 offensive dman, two solid mid level prospects and between a second and a first if lou does for toronto what everyone thinks he will. Toronto gets a big solid defensive dman and an elite goaltender.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:12 AM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Hockey 4 Life View Post
I've liked the value of the most recent proposals, but considering van is in win now mode what about somthing like this.

To
Van
Liles
Bozak
Colborne/Ashton
Blacker
2013 cond 2nd based on making the playoffs turns to a first if the leafs make it past the first round.

Toronto
Lou
Alberts

Van gets a young scoring 2-3c a top 4 offensive dman, two solid mid level prospects and between a second and a first if lou does for toronto what everyone thinks he will. Toronto gets a big solid defensive dman and an elite goaltender.
Leafs would do that.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:17 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Trades aren't negotiated in public... but a negotiating position only comes from the next best alternative. Mike Gillis can't get more out of Brian Burke, unless he's got a better alternative. In this thread, you've got idiotic Leafs fans negotiating against themselves, and Canucks fans coming up with asking prices that have zero foundation.

That I don't know... so far the only fans that seem interested in Luongo are Leafs fans, and one Jets fan who's yet to provide an explanation as to why his proposal makes any sense.

One team being interested establishes his value at a 7th round pick. If fans of other teams fans want to beat that, then obviously the price goes up until only one team is prepared to part with the level of value.
I don't think these in-thread negotiations can be compared to actual trade negotiations. There are too many inherent differences that cannot be overlooked.

I'd also take issue with your claim that a negotiating position only comes from the next best alternative. Instead, it comes from the perception of the next best alternative. Without open negotiations there is plenty of room for bluffing and deception to alter your negotiating stance. Since Burke can't be sure of what he's bidding against, the perceived alternative holds more power than the actual alternative.

None of us know what any of the real offers are, so obviously I can't fault you for being in the dark here. However what seems silly to me is speculating real life value based on HF fan offers. Just because Florida, Chicago, Edmonton fans aren't showing great interest on the internet doesn't mean their GM's don't have interest.

It's one thing to 'negotiate' a deal online. It's a completely other thing to assume the value is in accordance with NHL front office reality, which too many fans are doing in these threads.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:19 AM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Hockey 4 Life View Post
I've liked the value of the most recent proposals, but considering van is in win now mode what about somthing like this.

To
Van
Liles
Bozak
Colborne/Ashton
Blacker
2013 cond 2nd based on making the playoffs turns to a first if the leafs make it past the first round.

Toronto
Lou
Alberts

Van gets a young scoring 2-3c a top 4 offensive dman, two solid mid level prospects and between a second and a first if lou does for toronto what everyone thinks he will. Toronto gets a big solid defensive dman and an elite goaltender.
Easy no from Vancouver, but thanks for showing interest.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:24 AM
  #141
seanlinden
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
I don't think these in-thread negotiations can be compared to actual trade negotiations. There are too many inherent differences that cannot be overlooked.

I'd also take issue with your claim that a negotiating position only comes from the next best alternative. Instead, it comes from the perception of the next best alternative. Without open negotiations there is plenty of room for bluffing and deception to alter your negotiating stance, since Burke can't be sure of what he's bidding against.

None of us know what any of the real offers are, so obviously I can't fault you for being in the dark here. However what seems silly to me is speculating real life value based on HF fan offers. Just because Florida, Chicago, Edmonton fans aren't showing great interest on the internet doesn't mean their GM's don't have interest.

It's one thing to 'negotiate' a deal online. It's a completely other thing to assume the value is in accordance with NHL front office reality, which too many fans are doing in these threads.
Of course not... in this thread you've got a bunch of people coming up with ubsurd prices based on what they "want"... not based on being better than the next best offer.

Of course, there's room for bluffing, but there's also room to call a bluff. If Gillis were to ask for Gardiner, JvR and a 1st, Burke calls that bluff under the simple realization that nobody is going to give up anywhere NEAR that quality for Luongo, and he certainly isn't either. If Gillis asks for Kadri and a 2nd, Burke likely doesn't call that bluff, because chances are some other team is prepared to offer quality in that range, and it's a deal that probably makes sense for his team.

All we're doing in this thread is speculating what real life value might be based on HF fan offers. That doesn't mean the process can't be similar. Furthermore, you suggestion that just because Florida/Chicago/Edmonton fans aren't showing interest, that doesn't mean their GM's don't have interest is absolutely valid. However, it's exactly as valid as suggesting that Brian Burke doesn't have interest despite Leafs fans having interest.

At the end of the day, all we're doing is playing armchair GMs in this thread... which is fine... but doing so should at least follow some sort of similar logic to what an actual GM would do (i.e. offer just enough to beat the 2nd most interested team, and do an evaluation of what other teams would likely be prepared to give up in order to determine your offer price).


Last edited by seanlinden: 12-08-2012 at 10:29 AM.
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Old
12-08-2012, 10:24 AM
  #142
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Easy no from Vancouver, but thanks for showing interest.
Well I respect your opinion but that's more value then some of the trades posted on here by van fans themselves. As for an easy no I doubt that but again that's your opinion. If you would like to explain why its an easy no I'd love to hear why, maybe you might even change my mind lol.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:43 AM
  #143
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This trade is based upon:
a) losing the entire season
b) new CBA is signed allowing the trading of cap space

So with that caveat...

To Toronto
Luongo

To Vancouver
Kulemin
$3M in Cap Space for 3 seasons

Reasoning:
Toronto gets their goalie. Kulemin's spot in the roster is replaced by one of many free agents available after the season is wiped completely.

Vancouver gets a forward with a good cap hit who can play right now plus some additional cap space to go spend on a free agent of their choosing.

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:49 AM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Just made a deal and it was

Bozak
Kadri
Colbourne
Blacker
It looked like Leafa fans were pretty 50/50 on the package of
- Kadri
- Bozak
- Finn
- Frattin

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:52 AM
  #145
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Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
This trade is based upon:
a) losing the entire season
b) new CBA is signed allowing the trading of cap space

So with that caveat...

To Toronto
Luongo

To Vancouver
Kulemin
$3M in Cap Space for 3 seasons

Reasoning:
Toronto gets their goalie. Kulemin's spot in the roster is replaced by one of many free agents available after the season is wiped completely.

Vancouver gets a forward with a good cap hit who can play right now plus some additional cap space to go spend on a free agent of their choosing.
I think a lot of people overvalue cap space a lot of the time.

Cap space is an added bonus, but really a 1 for 1 for Kulemin just isnt good value for Van (regardless of when it happens)

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Old
12-08-2012, 10:57 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
I think a lot of people overvalue cap space a lot of the time.

Cap space is an added bonus, but really a 1 for 1 for Kulemin just isnt good value for Van (regardless of when it happens)
Vancouver clears over 5.5M in cap space in that deal.

Kulemin is not the main piece going back to the Canucks. It's the 5.5M+ player the Canucks will be able to afford to to sign from free agency.

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Old
12-08-2012, 11:03 AM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
This trade is based upon:
a) losing the entire season
b) new CBA is signed allowing the trading of cap space

So with that caveat...

To Toronto
Luongo

To Vancouver
Kulemin
$3M in Cap Space for 3 seasons

Reasoning:
Toronto gets their goalie. Kulemin's spot in the roster is replaced by one of many free agents available after the season is wiped completely.

Vancouver gets a forward with a good cap hit who can play right now plus some additional cap space to go spend on a free agent of their choosing.
Taking on the contract is enough from the Leafs side, no need to add a player like Kulemin.

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12-08-2012, 11:04 AM
  #148
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Whatever. While I have my disagreements over his portrayal of Luongo's contract, I don't think the value is too off. I'm not going to hate on someone because their opinion of what their team needs are differs from my understanding.(ex, I feel JVR makes Kulemin expendable. DougGilmour doesn't).
Just wanted to say, thanks for the support. I appreciate you understanding where I stand when others don't comprehend. I atest that to them only thinking of only their "wants". And that's ok. Not every poster on here knows what they are talking about, nor do they know the in's and out's of a complex transaction such as this.

They continue to set the bar, and aren't willing to compromise. I , on the other hand, have modified my proposals, reluctantly so, and they continue to want more. It's almost as if they, see what they can get out of me, than they raise the bar to get more and more and more. Whatever, I've been accomodating, but I can only go so far.

I'll continue by saying, that you, are easily one of the more intelligent posters I've dealt with. Not only intelligent but easy to continue a conversation with. Not condescending like some Vancouver fans.

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Old
12-08-2012, 11:09 AM
  #149
Liferleafer
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Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
You're wrong. Current bargaining positions by both the NHL and NHLPA indicate that Roberto's contract could be likened to a kick in the balls to whoever acquires him.



So what you're saying is that Roberto cannot carry a team. What makes you think he'll perform better for the Leafs than the President's Trophy winning Canucks?



Those that do not learn from history are bound to make the same mistakes. This short-sighted opinion is why the Leafs spent eight years out of the playoffs: trading away young pieces for aging veterans that were on the brink of decline.
Okay...

1. If i can't say his contract is good because we don't know what the new CBA says....you can't say it's bad for the same reason. It's a wash.

2. As far as i know, hockey is a team game. If your team can't score it really doesn't matter if your GA average is 2.00.

3. Wanna talk history do ya? Can you tell me what seat in the Gardens you were sitting in the last time the Leafs won the cup? I can, i also have my fathers 4 cup rings on my mantle. Want to know why we haven't seen the playoffs in eight years?

Reimer .921 and .900
Scrivens .902
Gustavsson .902
Toskala .891 and .904 and .874
Raycroft .894
Gerber .905
J.S Giguere 15 games .916
J.S Aubin .896
Michael Telquist .895
Scott Clemmensen .839
Justin Pogge .844
Curtis Joseph .869

Tell me, do you think Luongo's .913-.931may have helped?

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12-08-2012, 11:13 AM
  #150
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Still going off the same ubsurd Canuck fan demands... I wonder when fans will realize that any player's value is limited to slightly greater than what the second most interested team is willing to pay...

So far the best offer is Antropov, Little & a 2nd for Luongo & Ballard, and I've yet to see a Jets fan provide any reasoning why they'd give up on their 25 year old goaltender while adding $3m to the goaltending position and a $4m+ defenceman they don't need.
I'm goin to take a wild guess and say that you don't follow the jets vey much. I watch both the Canucks and the Jets, so it's easy for me to see what each team needs.

Ballard is an upgrade on Hainsey, who is a UFA next season, and provided that there is hockey, Hainsey could be dealt at the deadline for some more picks in a deep draft.

While I wouldn't mind keeping Antropov, he gets paid way too
much for the services he provides. If Van wants him, they are more then welcome to the guy.

Pavelec was one of the worst starters in the league last season, and has had his work ethic and dedication called into question, as well as his physical fitness. I'm altogether unsure whether Pavelec is the answer that is going to get us into the playoffs or not. You can call it giving up on a 25 yr old player...but when do you call it? The guy got cut from his team in the Czech Republic, but it's not like you can blame playing style.

This team getting closer and closer to competing, and I don't think Pavelec is going to be that guy. With Luongo between the pipes, this is a playoff team.

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