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Jagr: What could have been

View Poll Results: If not for time lost, would Jagr have passed Messier in points?
Yes 180 91.84%
No 16 8.16%
Voters: 196. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-12-2012, 08:32 PM
  #76
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Kinda sucks that Jagr only has 1 Hart. He lost 2 Harts, one to the last dman to win a hart and one to the last goalie to win a hart. And he deserved it over Thornton in 06 imo.

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12-12-2012, 08:36 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by MeowLeafs View Post
Kinda sucks that Jagr only has 1 Hart. He lost 2 Harts, one to the last dman to win a hart and one to the last goalie to win a hart. And he deserved it over Thornton in 06 imo.
Theodore won the Hart a few years later but Hasek is the only goalie to win 2 Hart trophies.

I just had to correct you on this one.

The hopeful, somewhat unrealistic side of me says that maybe Jagr plays one more year at Jagr-like dominant level and pulls off a Lemieux and Howe-like 40 year old's season and somehow steals the Art Ross and Hart away from the likes of Malkin and such. If he was able to pull that off, he would shut up even his naysayers and doubters. He would easily be catapulted into the 5-10 top players of all time.

He's been on fire in the Czech Extraliga (I know it's not the NHL but he's got 43 Pts in only 27 games), he's 25 lbs lighter and looks quicker and faster on his skates than at anytime since leaving Pittsburgh, again I can only hope!!!


Last edited by livewell68: 12-12-2012 at 09:05 PM.
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12-12-2012, 09:37 PM
  #78
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224 points behind Messier. Missed half a season in the 94 lockout and let's say half a season this lockout, another season in the 04 lockout, 3 of the past 4 seasons in the KHL. That's 5 missed season where he just needed to make up 224 points. Hmm, could Jagr have averaged 45 points a season during that time span? YES!!

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12-12-2012, 10:22 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by MeowLeafs View Post
Kinda sucks that Jagr only has 1 Hart. He lost 2 Harts, one to the last dman to win a hart and one to the last goalie to win a hart. And he deserved it over Thornton in 06 imo.
Thornton was so valuable that year that he got traded

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12-13-2012, 05:13 AM
  #80
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What if what if....what if Messier never got injured in 84,85,89 and he also would of played a full season in 94. We could what if leperchauns, ferries and eskimos too.

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12-13-2012, 05:29 AM
  #81
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I think you just lost credibility with this statement alone.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were 2nd in the East in their first 39 games, in those first 39 games, Jagr had 71 Pts (32 goals and 39 assists). Jagr then misses 19 games, comes back and the Penguins have dropped to 9th in East and are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Jagr plays very well down the stretch and manages to push them to a 7th seed finish.

Kovalev that season had 66 Pts in all 82 games (Pittsbrugh's second leading scorer in 1999-00). In comparison, the Florida Panthers had two other 70 Pts players in Ray Whitney and Viktor Kozlov. Bure's 94 Pts were impressive and helped the Panthers a lot but Jagr was far and away more valuable to his team.
Bure completely drove the offense in Florida. He didn't score as much as Jagr, but that year in particular he was responsible for an especially high number of goal that came away from him; Whitney and especially Kozlov taking advantage of defenses trying to double-cover Bure caused much of this.

No other Pens hit 70, but Kovalev and Lang (both on the second line) hit 66 and 65 respectively, while their LW (Straka) hit 59. Bure had no threat like that waiting on the bench; the closest wa Sillinger, with 52, and some guys in the 40s. The real question is... why did Jagr's linemates never put up big numbers? Jan Hrdina was in the 40s that year centering Jagr. The argument about Francis is that his big numbers come from Jagr. But other guys who center Jagr don't see a "big number" effect. So perhaps it's actually true that Francis made an impact on some of Jagr's best years, such as 1995-96 (where the Jagr supporters always are quick to point out his ES advantage over Lemieux).

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As for Bourque, really? He wasn't even among the Norris finalists. How was he more valuable to his team than Jagr was?
1) Bourque should have been 3rd behind Lidstrom and MacInnis.
2) Bourque's teammates, especially the defensemen, were criminally bad. Allison did well and carried Khristich's numbers, but the second-best defenseman on the team was Hal Gill. Bourque and Byron Dafoe were it for that team in terms of reasons for making the playoffs.
3) Jagr had a great year. I'm not discounting that. But he had a better support cast. If you take away Bourque and Jagr, Pittsburgh is the better team, even considering Dafoe's big season and Barrasso's average performance. Kevin Hatcher, Darius Kasparaitis, and Jiri Slegr make a very solid top-three, and Martin Straka outscored any Boston forward, plus Pittsburgh had better help among depth forwards.

I didn't say Bourque beats Jagr by much. I just said he beats him in 1999.

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I have noticed one thing, you seem to value the Red Wings duo a lot and seem to devalue Jagr's accomplishments and value to an almost criminal extent.

BTW Bure was a not a top 10 player? He was easily top 5 in the league that season but Jagr was that much better.
I have him ranked 4th at forward, behind Yzerman, Sakic, and Jagr. I think that's fair. Then there's Pronger, Lidstrom, and MacInnis on the blueline who could be argued. And Belfour and Hasek in goal. If he makes the top ten depend on whether you consider guys like Gonchar, Kolzig, Brodeur, and Bourque better for that season. I'd probably put Bure around 7th or 8th. Definitely not "easily top 5."

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As for Jagr only deserving 1 Hart in 2006, I think you seem to forget what he did in 1998-99.
See above.

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Old
12-13-2012, 05:30 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by heartsabres View Post
What if what if....what if Messier never got injured in 84,85,89 and he also would of played a full season in 94. We could what if leperchauns, ferries and eskimos too.
What if Messier wasn't so overrated and he was accurately represented as only arguably top 10 among centers who have played in the league since 1980?

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12-13-2012, 06:14 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
What if Messier wasn't so overrated and he was accurately represented as only arguably top 10 among centers who have played in the league since 1980?
Messier's difficult to rate, but there's no denying his career value is excellent (at least top 5 center since '80) and he was quite a player at his peak and in his prime too. I see him more at Sakic/Yzerman level than at Jagr level. This is sort of like a rich man's Selanne vs. Modano argument. The overall game of Jagr and Selanne are underrated, and the scoring ability of Messier and Modano are underrated. I probably underrated Messier in the past, but I've gained appreciation for his career with a more well-rounded perspective. Messier may be overrated, but what most bothers me is the mythical, almost divine worship of his leadership, while completely ignoring that he didn't make the playoffs 7 years in a row.

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12-13-2012, 06:48 AM
  #84
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Messier only top 10 since 1980?

Career value he blows away any active centers. Crosby and Malkin might surpass him eventually, but they're far far away. Thornton is probably the closest on career value and... it's still no comparison.


The only two definitely above him are Gretzky and Lemieux. Even if we consider him to be even with Yzerman and Sakic (and I personally think he's slightly better than them), he's automatically in the top 5 since 1980.... I mean who are you going to argue was better?

I feel like Messier was overrated for his stay in New York, but that's what happens when you play for a team in the big apple (look at Mark Sanchez 2-3 years ago for the Jets...). However he gets crapped on so much for his time in Vancouver, so much that it seems like people forget how dominant he was.

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12-13-2012, 05:06 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Wrath View Post
Messier only top 10 since 1980?

Career value he blows away any active centers. Crosby and Malkin might surpass him eventually, but they're far far away. Thornton is probably the closest on career value and... it's still no comparison.


The only two definitely above him are Gretzky and Lemieux. Even if we consider him to be even with Yzerman and Sakic (and I personally think he's slightly better than them), he's automatically in the top 5 since 1980.... I mean who are you going to argue was better?

I feel like Messier was overrated for his stay in New York, but that's what happens when you play for a team in the big apple (look at Mark Sanchez 2-3 years ago for the Jets...). However he gets crapped on so much for his time in Vancouver, so much that it seems like people forget how dominant he was.
I think certain players like Lafontaine, Forsberg, Lindros and even Stastny all peaked higher than Messier.

If not for their injuries, all those centers I named other than Stastny would have most likely been greater players than Messier.

Stastny is vastly underrated on here BTW.

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12-14-2012, 12:50 AM
  #86
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Last year was Jagr's first year not hitting 70 points since his 2nd year in the NHL where he had 69 points.

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12-14-2012, 12:55 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Messier's difficult to rate, but there's no denying his career value is excellent (at least top 5 center since '80) and he was quite a player at his peak and in his prime too. I see him more at Sakic/Yzerman level than at Jagr level. This is sort of like a rich man's Selanne vs. Modano argument. The overall game of Jagr and Selanne are underrated, and the scoring ability of Messier and Modano are underrated. I probably underrated Messier in the past, but I've gained appreciation for his career with a more well-rounded perspective. Messier may be overrated, but what most bothers me is the mythical, almost divine worship of his leadership, while completely ignoring that he didn't make the playoffs 7 years in a row.
But he won a Cup with the Rangers. That's putting a square peg in a round hole to say the least. The worship of his leadership is almost divine because it takes just about divinity to get that franchise to win anything

To be fair though, Jagr led the Rangers to great things too and would have done the same thing Messier did had he had any help whatsoever. At the end of the day those teams were basically Jagr, Lundqvist and 18 tackle dummies.


Last edited by Machinehead: 12-14-2012 at 01:09 AM.
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12-14-2012, 01:05 AM
  #88
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The mediocre team comment wasn't about by example. Both teams could still be horrible or great becuase I didn't bring up defense. However no matter the case Player A is the best of the bunch and deserves the MVP. If you put Player A on Player C's team then that team becomes better. The best player would be most valuable on any team he is placed on.
If it were meant to be awarded that way, the words would be "player adjudged most valuable to his league." In 2011 Corey Perry won the Hart. My personal choice was Rinne. If you go back to the beginning of 2010-11, and trade Rinne for Perry, does Nashville fare better or worse? How about Anaheim? Which team suffers more?

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Originally Posted by Wrath View Post
Messier only top 10 since 1980?

Career value he blows away any active centers. Crosby and Malkin might surpass him eventually, but they're far far away. Thornton is probably the closest on career value and... it's still no comparison.


The only two definitely above him are Gretzky and Lemieux. Even if we consider him to be even with Yzerman and Sakic (and I personally think he's slightly better than them), he's automatically in the top 5 since 1980.... I mean who are you going to argue was better?
Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Dionne, Sakic, Clarke, Trottier were better and arguments can be made for Fedorov, Larionov, Forsberg, Lindros, Stastny, Oates, LaFontaine. Plus there's Crosby and Malkin, who are doing quite well for themselves.

Quote:
I feel like Messier was overrated for his stay in New York, but that's what happens when you play for a team in the big apple (look at Mark Sanchez 2-3 years ago for the Jets...). However he gets crapped on so much for his time in Vancouver, so much that it seems like people forget how dominant he was.
Messier gets crapped on because he went in as a greedy UFA who left NYR for more money, he basically demanded that Linden be stripped of the C (officially Linden resigned, but it was coerced) and then was a major reason fan favorite Linden was traded; fans preferred Linden as the team's captain rather than some mercenary who feels entitled to the "C". And he wasn't even that good in Vancouver.

As for his "dominant" years, people talk about Messier being a dominant force, etc. etc. He had a good time in the 80s but his peak was around 1990, and his prime ran from 1986-87 to 1995-96. Great time to hit your prime. Some excellent league scoring averages.

Messier's scoring during his prime:

By comparison, over that same span, here are some centers and their scoring during Messier's prime (per-82 numbers in parentheses):
1) 731GP, 434-603-1037 (49-68-117)
2) 708GP, 311-628-939 (36-73-109)
3) 638GP, 381-436-817 (49-56-105)
4) 590GP, 285-461-746 (40-64-104)
5) 708GP, 227-667-894 (26-77-103)
6) 432GP, 212-317-529 (40-60-100)

In that list are, in alphabetical order, Fedorov, LaFontaine, Messier, Oates, Sakic, and Yzerman. All during Messier's prime. Can you tell which is which without looking them up?


Last edited by pdd: 12-14-2012 at 01:29 AM.
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12-14-2012, 01:17 AM
  #89
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I think he would've hit 2k. It's a real shame he left to the KHL and the NHL can't get their **** together with their constant lockouts.

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12-14-2012, 01:24 AM
  #90
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Messier has to be the most underrated player on this site.

Are there people really trying to say Yzerman and Sakic were better than him? That is so comical.

Messier blows both of them completely out of the water...anyone who thinks either of them had a better career than Mess well..simply does not follow hockey.

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12-14-2012, 01:29 AM
  #91
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I don't think Messier's leadership is overrated.. guy won six cups and won two without Gretzky.

You want to see an overrated leader? take a look at Jarome Iginla.

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12-14-2012, 01:42 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by FakeKidPoker View Post
Messier has to be the most underrated player on this site.

Are there people really trying to say Yzerman and Sakic were better than him? That is so comical.

Messier blows both of them completely out of the water...anyone who thinks either of them had a better career than Mess well..simply does not follow hockey.
Ok, now explain what Messier did that blows them out of the water.

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12-14-2012, 01:45 AM
  #93
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an argument could easily be made that Jagr really didn't lose as much to the 04-05 lockout as you might think

the opening up of the game that resulted immediately following it definitely gave his stats a significant boost

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12-14-2012, 01:51 AM
  #94
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He won six stanley cups.

Combined Yzerman and Sakic have 5 (and you could very well argue they had stronger teams than Messier had...certainly in Goal and on D.)

He won two hart trophies.. Yzerman never won one hell how many Hart votes does Yzerman have like..3?

Two Pearson awards..more then either of them.

Just a complete playoff beast.. 2nd all time in playoff scoring.

Yzerman's numbers are pretty mediocre.. not even close to a PPG.


I honestly don't know how anyone could argue Yzerman had even close to a better career than Messier ...Sakic is slightly closer but not that close to Moose.

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12-14-2012, 02:27 AM
  #95
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Originally Posted by FakeKidPoker View Post
He won six stanley cups.

Combined Yzerman and Sakic have 5 (and you could very well argue they had stronger teams than Messier had...certainly in Goal and on D.)

He won two hart trophies.. Yzerman never won one hell how many Hart votes does Yzerman have like..3?

Two Pearson awards..more then either of them.

Just a complete playoff beast.. 2nd all time in playoff scoring.

Yzerman's numbers are pretty mediocre.. not even close to a PPG.


I honestly don't know how anyone could argue Yzerman had even close to a better career than Messier ...Sakic is slightly closer but not that close to Moose.
Yzerman and Sakic had stronger teams?

The Oilers were a dynasty. Kurri, Gretzky, Coffey, Anderson and Fuhr.

All in the hall of fame. He is still easily one of the best centers in the last few decades. But if he played against teams nowadays he would be more comparable to Joe Thornton than to Lemieux/Gretzky.

And in Messier's defense, people seem to forget that Sakic signed an offer sheet from NY. Why? Because he wanted to play with Gretzky. It isn't always about money. Messier loved NY, but maybe he was tired of playing in Wayne's shadow lol.

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12-14-2012, 04:20 AM
  #96
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Messier does lose over 100 points in the 92, 95, and 05 lockouts. Id say it could go either way, if we gift Jagr these years.

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12-14-2012, 10:40 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by FakeKidPoker View Post
He won six stanley cups.
Henri Richard won more than Maurice Richard. Kris Draper won four Cups to Marcel Dionne's 0. Is that suppoed to indicate the better individual player?

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Combined Yzerman and Sakic have 5 (and you could very well argue they had stronger teams than Messier had...certainly in Goal and on D.)
Osgood is probably the most-bashed goalie of recent history, despite being a top-ten goalie or better most years he started.

Fuhr is considered one of the great playoff goalies of all-time, and did win a Vezina and contend for others. Not as great a leap to Roy as it is in the regular season.

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He won two hart trophies.. Yzerman never won one hell how many Hart votes does Yzerman have like..3?
Yzerman should have won the 1989 Hart, but the voters were apparently swayed by Detroit's drop in the standings at the end of the season.

Messier, IMHO, should have none. He won 1990 under suspicious circumstances, and in 1992 he somehow won over Mario Lemieux (who scored 30 more points in almost 20 fewer games, while barely outscoring Norris winner Brian Leetch)

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Just a complete playoff beast.. 2nd all time in playoff scoring.
Over 500 seasons. If Yzerman had a better team from 84-91, he'd be well above Messier.

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Yzerman's numbers are pretty mediocre.. not even close to a PPG.
Yzerman played 196 playoff games. 121 came after 30, including the 1997 playoff run - one of his best but weak for PPG; 13 in 20, but he was arguably the best forward in the playoffs - his production was lowered because he was often matched against Sakic to play defense (3/6 vs COL) and then Lindros in the finals (4/4 vs PHI).

Also, while flipping through Youtubes on 1997 I came across these Fedorov gem highlighting his power, speed, forechecking, and anticipation (at 2:45, 3:55)



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I honestly don't know how anyone could argue Yzerman had even close to a better career than Messier ...Sakic is slightly closer but not that close to Moose.
If Yzerman had paid comparable attention to defense as Messier did for his entire career, we can realistically assume that his production would have been 15%-20% greater from 1995-96 on, and as much as 50% in 1994-95; he was often used as a third-line forward by Bowman in 1995 to "get the message" to switch his two-way game from "offense #1, defense #2" to "defense #1, offense #2".

Let's assume half of that (25% increase in 1994-95, 10% for post-95) and spread it evenly on goals and assists. These would be Yzerman's numbers:

1983-84 through 1993-94:
815GP, 469-653-1122

1994-95: 47GP, 15-33-48
1995-96: 80GP, 40-65-105
1996-97: 81GP, 24-69-93
1997-98: 75GP, 26-50-76
1998-99: 80GP, 32-50-82
1999-00: 78GP, 39-48-87
2000-01: 54GP, 20-37-57
2001-02: 52GP, 14-39-53
2002-03: 16GP, 2-7-9
2003-04: 75GP, 20-36-56
2005-06: 61GP, 14-22-36

Adjusted 1994-95 through 2005-06:
699GP, 246-456-702

Total with adjusted years:
1514GP, 715-1109-1824

He probably doesn't get the Selke nod. But his defensive game would still get more notice with the Wings' improved team defense. He likely still takes home the 2000 first-team selection (in real life, he was third among centers with 79 points, Modano and Sakic tying for first at 81). He also has a very good chance at taking the 2nd team nods in 1997 (Gretzky) and 1999 (Yashin). If his defense were getting enough notice, he might even steal the #2 away from Gretzky in 1998 as well with that improved offense. In 2001, he becomes PPG to finish for 6th among centers and 12th overall (he was PPG to finish 10th and 21st). In 2002 it makes him PPG for 1st center and 4th overall (he was PPG for 6th and 11th).

He still finishes slightly behind Messier and Howe in 4th for total points, but with 200 fewer games played. With that, and the additional 1-3 2nd team selections in the late 90s, people would view Yzerman's career very differently.

And many argue that Yzerman actually became a better overall player when he became a defense-first player.

Who was the better player, Rod Langway or Brad Park?

The answer is not the one with the major awards.

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12-14-2012, 10:46 AM
  #98
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Originally Posted by TheGoldenJet View Post
Messier does lose over 100 points in the 92, 95, and 05 lockouts. Id say it could go either way, if we gift Jagr these years.
Messier lost zero points in the 1992 strike (not lockout); it lasted ten days and there was no loss of total games (he played 79 of 80).

In 1994-95, he loses about 40-50 points.

In 2004-05, it's arguable whether he even plays; many players who aged better retired because of the lockout, such as MacInnis and Stevens. I'd include Hull, but he tried to keep playing and his doughboy conditioning made that a non-starter.

But he was on a serious downswing, and probably would have been maybe a 30-point player at that time.

So 70-80 points.

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12-14-2012, 01:12 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Iceonfire View Post
Yzerman and Sakic had stronger teams?

The Oilers were a dynasty. Kurri, Gretzky, Coffey, Anderson and Fuhr.

All in the hall of fame. He is still easily one of the best centers in the last few decades. But if he played against teams nowadays he would be more comparable to Joe Thornton than to Lemieux/Gretzky.

And in Messier's defense, people seem to forget that Sakic signed an offer sheet from NY. Why? Because he wanted to play with Gretzky. It isn't always about money. Messier loved NY, but maybe he was tired of playing in Wayne's shadow lol.
Impressive list of players... anything with The Great one will be but c'mon look at what Yzerman got to play with.. it's just a little overkill isn't it.

But I think this list of players is just a little more impressive.

Lidstrom, Fedorov, Shanahan, Hull, Chelios, Larionov, Hasek, Murphy, Coffey, etc

All in or going into the Hall of Fame.. sure there is a couple i'm missing... hell he even got a few decent years of Datsyuk in there too who is going to the Hall.

As for New York he wasn't in Gretzky's shadow at all.. in New York Messier was always number 1 with the fans.

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12-14-2012, 01:30 PM
  #100
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As for the playoff comments Yzerman actually had more seasons where his teams made the playoffs over Messier.

If Yzerman and the Red Wings didn't blow up constantly in the playoffs his numbers would probably look better and he wouldn't have been subject to constant trade speculation for so much of his early career.


There really is no argument for Yzerman having a better career than Messier.. there just isn't... no matter what spin one person puts on it.

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