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Tampa Bay Prospect Pool - Underrated?

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Old
12-09-2012, 11:14 AM
  #1
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Tampa Bay Prospect Pool - Underrated?

The Tampa Bay Lightning have quietly accumulated high end talent.

Their depth at the forward position is absolutely stacked.

C:
1. Tyler Johnson
2. Vladislav Namesnikov
3. Alexander Killorn

LW:
1. Cory Conacher
2. Nikita Gusev
3. Ondrej Palat
4. Alex Hutchings

RW:
1. Brett Connolly
2. Richard Panik
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. JT Brown

I see a lot of players that can make the NHL from that list.

Now factor in their G prospects Tokarski, Janus and Vasilevski(who IMO is the top goalie prospect in the game).

Defense may be a bit weak, but it's headlined by Mark Barberio, the AHL d-man of the year last season at the age of 21 in his first pro season. Not even Subban did that. Nikita Nesterov is also a regular on the best KHL team in the league and I came away very impressed with him last WJC. And then there is Koekoek, who was drafted last year and seems to be having a decent season in Peterborough.

IMO they really get sold short on here.

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12-09-2012, 11:17 AM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tortorella View Post
The Tampa Bay Lightning have quietly accumulated high end talent.

Their depth at the forward position is absolutely stacked.

C:
1. Tyler Johnson
2. Vladislav Namesnikov
3. Alexander Killorn

LW:
1. Cory Conacher
2. Nikita Gusev
3. Ondrej Palat
4. Alex Hutchings

RW:
1. Brett Connolly
2. Richard Panik
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. JT Brown

I see a lot of players that can make the NHL from that list.

Now factor in their G prospects Tokarski, Janus and Vasilevski(who IMO is the top goalie prospect in the game).

Defense may be a bit weak, but it's headlined by Mark Barberio, the AHL d-man of the year last season at the age of 21 in his first pro season. Not even Subban did that. Nikita Nesterov is also a regular on the best KHL team in the league and I came away very impressed with him last WJC. And then there is Koekoek, who was drafted last year and seems to be having a decent season in Peterborough.

IMO they really get sold short on here.
I will say this your not seriously arguing that Mark Barberio is better then subban are you?

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12-09-2012, 11:21 AM
  #3
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Originally Posted by subbanged View Post
I will say this your not seriously arguing that Mark Barberio is better then subban are you?
Obviously not.

But for the hype Subban was receiving while down at the AHL, Barberio had put up better words and I'm sure only a quarter of the hockey world knows about him.

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12-09-2012, 11:40 AM
  #4
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Originally Posted by Tortorella View Post
Obviously not.

But for the hype Subban was receiving while down at the AHL, Barberio had put up better words and I'm sure only a quarter of the hockey world knows about him.
Barberio was in his second AHL season when he put up those numbers, Subban was in his first, and yet there numbers are similar. As well Subban then came up from hamilton that year and played as the defacto number 1 during a deep playoff run. That's why people know and Hype Subban over Barberio, who looks like he'll be a good number 3 or number 4.

On to what your saying,

I actually think Tampa's a little overrated, I do like Barberio, and Vaseliveski, but a lot of their higher potential guys have a lot of question marks. Yes, there's always the chance they always pan out, but that's doubtful. Personally I think there view a little to highly but that's my opinion.

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12-09-2012, 11:44 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tortorella View Post
The Tampa Bay Lightning have quietly accumulated high end talent.

Their depth at the forward position is absolutely stacked.

C:
1. Tyler Johnson
2. Vladislav Namesnikov
3. Alexander Killorn

LW:
1. Cory Conacher
2. Nikita Gusev
3. Ondrej Palat
4. Alex Hutchings

RW:
1. Brett Connolly
2. Richard Panik
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. JT Brown

I see a lot of players that can make the NHL from that list.

Now factor in their G prospects Tokarski, Janus and Vasilevski(who IMO is the top goalie prospect in the game).

Defense may be a bit weak, but it's headlined by Mark Barberio, the AHL d-man of the year last season at the age of 21 in his first pro season. Not even Subban did that. Nikita Nesterov is also a regular on the best KHL team in the league and I came away very impressed with him last WJC. And then there is Koekoek, who was drafted last year and seems to be having a decent season in Peterborough.

IMO they really get sold short on here.
The thing is you could break down a team's prospect pool and come to the same conclusion. A lot of it has to do with the fact that not many people follow TB so they don't know their pool very well. I myself don't follow them but from what I've read they've got a lot small skilled forwards in their pool, that would make me assume their are quite a few boom or bust guys. Just for comparison look at the Wings pool as a comparison:

C:

1. Calle Jarnkrok
2. Riley Sheahan
3. Landon Ferraro
4. Joakim Andersson

LW:

1. Gustav Nyquist
2. Tomas Tatar
3. Andreas Athanasiou
4. Marek Tvrdon

RW:

1. Tomas Jurco
2. Martin Frk
3. Teemu Pulkkinen

D:

1. Brendan Smith
2. Xavier Ouellet
3. Ryan Sproul
4. Mattias Backman
5. Nicklas Jensen

Then in net the wings have Mrazek, Paterson & McCollum.

When you break down any pool in this format like we did you'll see every pool has their weaknesses and their strengthes,by doing it like this we also tend to overrate some of our own prospects. I'm sure looking at either the Wing's or TB's poolyou can see a couple of NHLers at every position. (Not trying to turn this into my team vs your team, just trying to show how TB compares to a team around them prospect wise)

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Old
12-09-2012, 01:42 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DatsyukToZetterberg View Post
The thing is you could break down a team's prospect pool and come to the same conclusion. A lot of it has to do with the fact that not many people follow TB so they don't know their pool very well. I myself don't follow them but from what I've read they've got a lot small skilled forwards in their pool, that would make me assume their are quite a few boom or bust guys. Just for comparison look at the Wings pool as a comparison:

C:

1. Calle Jarnkrok
2. Riley Sheahan
3. Landon Ferraro
4. Joakim Andersson

LW:

1. Gustav Nyquist
2. Tomas Tatar
3. Andreas Athanasiou
4. Marek Tvrdon

RW:

1. Tomas Jurco
2. Martin Frk
3. Teemu Pulkkinen

D:

1. Brendan Smith
2. Xavier Ouellet
3. Ryan Sproul
4. Mattias Backman
5. Nicklas Jensen

Then in net the wings have Mrazek, Paterson & McCollum.

When you break down any pool in this format like we did you'll see every pool has their weaknesses and their strengthes,by doing it like this we also tend to overrate some of our own prospects. I'm sure looking at either the Wing's or TB's poolyou can see a couple of NHLers at every position. (Not trying to turn this into my team vs your team, just trying to show how TB compares to a team around them prospect wise)
Well at first you totally forget about Korobov and Gudas as near NHL-ready d-men

And at the post from DatsyuktoZetterberg: If you include Athanasiou ( a mid-round pick from 12) we could very well include guys like Richard, Jimmy Mullin, Brian Hart, or Blujus, who show a lot of promise, but are simply not old enough to say anything about their NHL-future.

I always tought about them as a underrated pool ( at least on HF, because they simply doesn't care about us), but after the new Team Rankings I think, they are right where they should be.

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12-09-2012, 01:46 PM
  #7
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Underrated? Maybe, but its not "stacked".

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12-09-2012, 01:56 PM
  #8
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I see alot of boom/bust.. alot of talent, but alot of guys that could very easily end up being career AHLers or going back to/staying in Russia.

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12-09-2012, 02:12 PM
  #9
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edit -- I am an idiot --


as far as their ranking, it seems to be fair but like another couple posters have state... not everyone is on the up and up about Tampa's prospect pool and value a lot of them as boom or bust guys.


Last edited by LordFletcher: 12-09-2012 at 03:04 PM.
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12-09-2012, 02:14 PM
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One of the main reasons they are underrated is they aren't "sexy" top 60 picks.

Conacher, Johnson, Korobov, Brown etc all undrafted.

And Conacher and Johnson both holding the number 1 spots on your positional rankings.

Barberio, Palat, Tokarski, Janus, Peca, Nesterov etc all late round picks.

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12-09-2012, 02:18 PM
  #11
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I'd say it's underrated but like HossTheBoss said there's a lot of boom or bust players, and players that could go back/stay in Russia. There's not a tone of "safe" picks outside of Brown, and Barberio, but if everyone or most pans out (which is unlikely) it'll be scary.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LordFletcher View Post
Trouba is the only current prospect in Tampa that I am really expecting to have a great career... (IMO)

as far as their ranking, it seems to be fair but like another couple posters have state... not everyone is on the up and up about Tampa's prospect pool and value a lot of them as boom or bust guys.
No matter how much Id love Trouba to be Tampa's property, he's not.

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12-09-2012, 02:21 PM
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That is not anywhere close to stacked.

They are severely overrated on here.

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12-09-2012, 02:47 PM
  #13
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not really.... they have too many hit or miss prospects

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12-09-2012, 03:03 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shello View Post
I'd say it's underrated but like HossTheBoss said there's a lot of boom or bust players, and players that could go back/stay in Russia. There's not a tone of "safe" picks outside of Brown, and Barberio, but if everyone or most pans out (which is unlikely) it'll be scary.




No matter how much Id love Trouba to be Tampa's property, he's not.

dur... I mean't Jets.... and I also mean Koekkoek

FAIL!

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12-09-2012, 03:13 PM
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They lack a blue chip prospect. Connolly would be the closest thing to that but he isnt really tearing it up...

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12-09-2012, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AwesomePanthers View Post
Underrated? Maybe, but its not "stacked".
Yeah, agreed. I ended up with them in our board's 2010 Mock Drafts, and noticed that there was a lot of quality, but a lot of their development still seemed like it could go either way. I think Namestnikov, Johnson, Kucherov, Gauthier, Conacher, Gusev, Koekkoek, Nesterov, and Vasilevsky have all been added to the fold since that mock, but still... it's another group of guys that could end up going either way to some degree.

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12-09-2012, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
They lack a blue chip prospect. Connolly would be the closest thing to that but he isnt really tearing it up...
I also don't think he's technically a prospect anymore, either by HF's definition or by the NHL's. But he is at a .95 P/G clip in the AHL which is pretty good for a 20 year old in his 2nd pro season.

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12-09-2012, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by DatsyukToZetterberg View Post
I also don't think he's technically a prospect anymore, either by HF's definition or by the NHL's. But he is at a .95 P/G clip in the AHL which is pretty good for a 20 year old in his 2nd pro season.
From what I saw he didnt impress me much...

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12-09-2012, 03:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
They lack a blue chip prospect. Connolly would be the closest thing to that but he isnt really tearing it up...
AHL MVP isnt blue chip these days? Sheesh.

The funny thing is the HFBoards ranking right or wrong, was a horribly written piece and doesnt make much sense in a lot of areas.

TB had BOTH of their affiliates in the AHL and ECHL win championships last year. In the AHL they had the best team EVER assembled in the history of the league.

Its amazing to me how incredibly underrated TBs prospect pool is on these boards. Although its simply because no one takes the time to watch them or do even remotely minute research on them. Not even the HF staff in which its their job.

I also think its funny that everyone is saying "oh they have a lot of potential guys, but they may not pan out". Ummm no ****. Thats why they are prospects, you can say that ANY prospect on ANY team.

This is the best prospect pool the Lightning have ever has in their history and its not even close. The goalie situation has gone from bleak to ridiculously stacked and in 5 years we will have at the least 3 NHL starter capable goalies no doubt in my mind.

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12-09-2012, 05:37 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
They lack a blue chip prospect.
For the most part, I agree with this. (Although I consider Vasilevskiy "blue chip")

The Lightning don't have a Huberdeau/Granlund/Zibanejad/Yakupov to grab people's attention. Even their top 10 pick from the most recent draft was an "off the board" pick.

As others have said, the Lightning have a lot of boom/bust prospects, and the reason why they suddenly have a top 10 prospect pool is because a lot of those prospects are looking more and more like "booms" than "busts". What the Lightning lack in big names and top end talent, they make up for with a large amount of NHL ready players.

The following are all "boom/bust" prospects who are ready to challenge for a spot on the Lightning roster as soon as the lockout is over:
Cory Conacher (F), Tyler Johnson (F), Richard Panik (F), Mark Barberio (D), Alex Killorn (F), J.T. Brown (F), Radko Gudas (D).

Add to the fact that Nikita Kucherov is now playing in North America. One of the biggest reasons why he wasn't taken in the 1st round was concerns about him coming over as well as whether or not his game would translate to the NA style. He currently has 9g/13a in 13 games in the QMJHL.


For those who are curious about Tampa's prospects, and why some people are rating them so highly, you can checkout http://boltprospects.com/.

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12-09-2012, 06:09 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IdealisticSniper View Post
AHL MVP isnt blue chip these days? Sheesh.

The funny thing is the HFBoards ranking right or wrong, was a horribly written piece and doesnt make much sense in a lot of areas.

TB had BOTH of their affiliates in the AHL and ECHL win championships last year. In the AHL they had the best team EVER assembled in the history of the league.

Its amazing to me how incredibly underrated TBs prospect pool is on these boards. Although its simply because no one takes the time to watch them or do even remotely minute research on them. Not even the HF staff in which its their job.

I also think its funny that everyone is saying "oh they have a lot of potential guys, but they may not pan out". Ummm no ****. Thats why they are prospects, you can say that ANY prospect on ANY team.

This is the best prospect pool the Lightning have ever has in their history and its not even close. The goalie situation has gone from bleak to ridiculously stacked and in 5 years we will have at the least 3 NHL starter capable goalies no doubt in my mind.
I agreed with everything you said up until that. I respect your opinion Sniper, but goal-tending is soo hard to predict. Were going the patience route with Tokarski, which is an awesome route to go with goaltenders, but honestly he is a very hit or miss with me. If he hits, it won't be by much either. He may become a starter, but I think the most likely scenario is to max out as a back up.

Janus while his KHL numbers are encouraging, couldn't even out play Tokarski in his role in the AHL. Unless he trained his ****ing ass off during the last off season and simply surpassed him, I don't think he will pan out as a legit starter. He always seemed like a Halak type of goaltender. When his back is against the wall, he will drag his team out of a **** hole, but at the same time the one thing he doesn't do as well as Halak is when his defense shows up, he has a hard time getting into that zone that makes him a dangerous goaltender. Just from what I seen. He seems to be more accustomed to the Big Ice...which may be bad for his NHL career, but great for his European one.

The progression on Helenius is still out, though with the likes of Gudas, Barberio, Korobov, Aulie in the minors his start so far this season has been some what disappointing to me. I don't know. He seems like a goaltender who is a European star, but still needs to get NA hockey down. I hope that he can, but times has shown you can be one without the other, time and time again. I hope he just needs to get settled, but right now he isn't ready. On a one way next season as well, if there is a season, are we really ready to be a backup for us next year? Right now I would feel more comfortable with Tokarski than I would Helenius.

Wilcox....well so far the kid has been a great Value pick, and is playing out of his mind in the NCAA. I hope he can continue that progression, but will need at least a year or two in the AHL after his NCAA career before we can even think about him in the NHL. He is more than five years away. So far I like what i see though.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has all the tools to be a star, the only thing holding him back is his experience, which the only way to get is to play more. I feel comfortable with him and expect him to be ready within that 5 year time slot.

Nagle....don't get me started. Value investing that really failed. In the investing world, this is a situation where you sell your losses and move on. Hes getting lit up in the ECHL, I would shudder to think what NHLers would do to him.

Overall I would say we have 1 starter out of that mix, maybe two. Possibly one back up. Still though, extremely solid. Sorry for going over analytical on you.

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12-09-2012, 06:43 PM
  #22
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I agreed with everything you said up until that. I respect your opinion Sniper, but goal-tending is soo hard to predict. Were going the patience route with Tokarski, which is an awesome route to go with goaltenders, but honestly he is a very hit or miss with me. If he hits, it won't be by much either. He may become a starter, but I think the most likely scenario is to max out as a back up.

Janus while his KHL numbers are encouraging, couldn't even out play Tokarski in his role in the AHL. Unless he trained his ****ing ass off during the last off season and simply surpassed him, I don't think he will pan out as a legit starter. He always seemed like a Halak type of goaltender. When his back is against the wall, he will drag his team out of a **** hole, but at the same time the one thing he doesn't do as well as Halak is when his defense shows up, he has a hard time getting into that zone that makes him a dangerous goaltender. Just from what I seen. He seems to be more accustomed to the Big Ice...which may be bad for his NHL career, but great for his European one.

The progression on Helenius is still out, though with the likes of Gudas, Barberio, Korobov, Aulie in the minors his start so far this season has been some what disappointing to me. I don't know. He seems like a goaltender who is a European star, but still needs to get NA hockey down. I hope that he can, but times has shown you can be one without the other, time and time again. I hope he just needs to get settled, but right now he isn't ready. On a one way next season as well, if there is a season, are we really ready to be a backup for us next year? Right now I would feel more comfortable with Tokarski than I would Helenius.

Wilcox....well so far the kid has been a great Value pick, and is playing out of his mind in the NCAA. I hope he can continue that progression, but will need at least a year or two in the AHL after his NCAA career before we can even think about him in the NHL. He is more than five years away. So far I like what i see though.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has all the tools to be a star, the only thing holding him back is his experience, which the only way to get is to play more. I feel comfortable with him and expect him to be ready within that 5 year time slot.

Nagle....don't get me started. Value investing that really failed. In the investing world, this is a situation where you sell your losses and move on. Hes getting lit up in the ECHL, I would shudder to think what NHLers would do to him.

Overall I would say we have 1 starter out of that mix, maybe two. Possibly one back up. Still though, extremely solid. Sorry for going over analytical on you.
For the record, my three included Lindback (Not really a prospect I know but I consider him one due to the situation, eh), Helenius, and Vasilevsky.

Vasil is going to be the guy. He is going to be the franchise goalie we have never really had.

Obviously goaltending is extremely hard to predict. Its really just an opinion based on educated guesses. Dont read too much into it.

Its like me saying Connolly will be a 40 goal scorer on the regular in the NHL. Which by the way Im not on that hype train. 30, probably. But in the end its just a guess because with a very very very small exception to the rule, prospects are prospects because there is potential and the goal is to find the ones who reach that potential.

We shall see, but one thing I think is definitely not up for debate. The fact that we have the best prospect pool we have ever had as a franchise right now. So its exciting to think of the future.

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12-09-2012, 06:46 PM
  #23
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Cory Conacher is going to be a heck of a player.

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12-09-2012, 07:06 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
They lack a blue chip prospect. Connolly would be the closest thing to that but he isnt really tearing it up...
On top of that he isn't even considered a prospect anymore(I believe he played close to 70 games last year).

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12-09-2012, 07:13 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
Cory Conacher is going to be a heck of a player.
This.

I'd say Conacher is a safe pick to be an NHLer. His work ethic and talent level are very impressive.

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