Why? You think that any other union leader would not be able to get Make Whole and the maintenance of FA rights in exchange for a lowering of revenues to a 50/50 split? Fehr isn't the only skilled negotiator in the world - in fact, we don't even know where he stands among negotiators since he essentially inherited a situation from one of the most famous union heads of all time.
Not only that, but he failed to negotiate Make Whole properly. The actual Make Whole payments for (full seasons) 2012 and 2013 should have been $221M and $172M respectively. By agreeing to $300M, he's essentially letting the league off the hook for the second year. The league thinks that revenue growth will account for most of the $172M.
Since they are only going to play at most 68% of a full season, the make whole will be prorated to $151M. $50M is pension money, not soft landing - IMO another mistake. So $100M will remain to pay off Make Whole year 2.
The remaining $79M in year 2 represents a 2% growth in revenue - somewhat reasonable but definitely not guaranteed after a lockout year. To me the scenario of <2% growth is real and fairly likely. If revenues stall, by accepting a fixed Make Whole amount the players could be out tens of millions of dollars - every 1% less of revenue growth is around $32M.
That's why I've been saying since Make Whole came out that the PA needed to negotiate guaranteed Make Whole dollars for years in which revenue doesn't cover the difference in the money put in and what is owed.
Keep in mind too that the $300M number worked a lot better if a full season had been saved. $300M would barely cover the first $221M of MW, leaving only $79M to pay a $172M bill in the second year. If the owners had spun $50M of that into pension, then there would only be $29M to pay a $172M bill. The remaining $143M would have to be covered by growth and would amount to a 4% growth in league revenues - which was reasonable with a full season. Actually, even the original $221M offer would have been fine since $172M would be around 5% revenue growth.
Another thing - even if growth covers the MW - it is taking money away from players who become FA's since that growth is the EXTRA money they will be resigned with. Otherwise you are signing more players (new + FA - retired) every year with the same amount of salary that was freed up when those players turned FA.
Likewise, the BARE MINIMUM that the players had to keep out of this deal was the UFA years. They weren't going to go back to the days where UFA's were 31.
Fehr has already conceded 32% of salary, 32% of this year's Make Whole (which was there for the taking anyhow, contract term limits and (presumably) variance - for things probably any decent negotiator could get. If I put myself in a player's shoes I can't justify his actions whatsoever.
The funny thing is that Fehr isn't the one that even proposed the make whole. All Fehr said was that the players want existing contracts honoured. The league is the one that introduced the make whole concept.
Also, I don't think the make whole will be prorated. The make whole will be separate from the players share of HRR. I believe it's the players HRR share that will be prorated to fit a shortened season.
I have to admit that I never thought we would be out this long.
I've heard that same thing from other players and because of it I wonder exactly what it is Fehr sold them. I truly sense from some of them that the most they figured to be out was about two months as in no later than mid November.
That was a good read. Seemed honest and heartfelt. Also nice to someone directly involved that isn't trying to push any sort of agenda. He just misses the game.
11 is pretty early for these guys. Good for them to try and leave time to work on things instead of starting at 5. Of course, talks will probably break down by 2 anyway.
I have to admit that I never thought we would be out this long.
I've heard that same thing from other players and because of it I wonder exactly what it is Fehr sold them. I truly sense from some of them that the most they figured to be out was about two months as in no later than mid November.
It seems like Fehr is fighting for the sake of fighting and not for the sake of the PA. In all likelihood, this is his last CBA negotiation and he wants to "win".
That was a good read. Seemed honest and heartfelt. Also nice to someone directly involved that isn't trying to push any sort of agenda. He just misses the game.
I hope HL is preparing for his public reprimand by Scott Hartnell.
Is a deal gunna get done soon I'm getting sick of this ****! I feel like we will have one by saturday
The longer it goes, the more it shows how well the players have been doing in recent years. This whole thing could've been done over 2 weeks in August. It's going on 3 months though because each side just has too much money. The owners have more money, which is why they'll get more of what they want, but both sides can afford to prove a point to the other.
He isn't wrong. This lockout will likely hurt some of these markets short term at the very least. Particular with a team like the Panthers, how does a shortened or no season affect their momentum? Should be interesting to see how it all works out.
11 is pretty early for these guys. Good for them to try and leave time to work on things instead of starting at 5. Of course, talks will probably break down by 2 anyway.
