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Top Prospect Game rosters showcase wealth of 2013 talent

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Old
12-13-2012, 01:15 AM
  #1
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Top Prospect Game rosters showcase wealth of 2013 talent


"Nate or Seth" might not have the same ring to it that "Taylor or Tyler" had a couple years ago, but phonetics aside, Nathan MacKinnon and Seth Jones find themselves in a similar situation to Hall and Seguin before them: competing to be the first player drafted in the upcoming NHL Draft.



For MacKinnon of the Halifax Mooseheads and Jones of the Portland Winterhawks, that competition will be played out on the ice next month when the pair face-off against one another as opposing captains at the 2013 Home Hardware CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game.

It is a highly anticipated match-up, not just because the duo is considered by many to be the top candidates to be drafted first overall, but also because of what each player represents.… read more



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Old
12-13-2012, 12:56 PM
  #2
hawksfan50
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Not every good prospect can get selected to the game BUT still why 2 Brandon Wheat Kings prospect D-men made it (Pulock and Roy) ,while only 1 Kelowna prospect made it (Bowey) is perhaps debateable--sure Pulock and Roy are "offensive" but Bowey and WHEATON are reliable defenively ...In the selection OBVIOUSLY they chose ROY over WHEATON because I guess 6g+14a for 20 pts in 33 games played is enticing when you are a 6'3 190 lb d-man and only 0g+7a for 7pts in 30GP is not so "worthy of selection EVEN though you are BIGGER (6'5 225 for WHEATON)--and oh yes that "insignificant" differential in the +/- : that is ROY's stinky -24 vs, Wheaton's impressive +20 ...

Now the usual response is that everyone knows that =/- is meaningless-it only reflects TEAM not INDIVIDUAL net positive or negative equal strength performance ...YET i) EVERYONE also knows Kelowna actually teaches their D-men how to play defense,while this is an after-thougtr over the years in Brandon --and a betting man would be a fool to think all they have to do is teach the Brandon kid properly and they will learn to be better d-men...but I suugest that looking at the differential in+/- even between the 2 Brandon D-men --we find Pulock is at least ok at a +11 while ROY is a whopping -24 -that simply cannot be due to TEAM defense (both are good offensively --Pulock at 28 pts in 27GP and Roy at 20 pts in 33GP...MAYBE ROY simply is awful defensively and may NEVER LEARN ?

Meanwhile--as usual--Kelowna teaches their d how to play good defense---BOWEY is +26 wth 14 pts in 31Gp and WHEATON is +20 in 30GP despite only contributing 7 assits to the offense.

Now usually 6'5 225 d-men who are +20 in just 30GP WOULD spark a lot of TOP PROSPECT consideration--but somehow I guess the scouts think ROY has more 'upside" and think they can teach him out of having NO CLUE how to play the D-man position properly to stop the opponents from scoring.

WEll life is a mystery --and it would seem the selectors for this game have perhaps overlooked THE OBVIOUS... which is that it occurs to me that a +54 TOTAL differential in favour of Wheaton ought to be more "deserving" of the spot-but what do I know? Sure offense sells tickets --defense is hard work and boring -but If you are going to win games -what would you rather have --the better offensive player or the steady and reliable defensive guy ? yes I know--scouts are looking at the not now but the overall potential several years out -WHEATON won't ever bring much offense but MAYBE they can teach ROY defense --the caveat is MAYBE --the clincher is that Roy leads the entire BRANDON team in this stat of NEGATIVE 24
and yes 3 other Brandon d-men are -10,-16,-19 the other top 2 are +11 and +9
(Bowey and Yaworsky respectively) --but this only shows how bad Roy is in comparioson to the 3 other poor defensive D-men ...and the fact that with their top pairing being +11 and +9 --it means that the real problem is with iNDIVIDUAL d-men D-zone play and not really the whole team --because SOME D-men mnaged to be POSITIVE in ES play -so in THIS CAE it reaaly does seem to be an "INDIVIDUAL" issue..IF it was simply forwards and goalie issues that WOULD impact NEGATIVELY even on Pulock and Yaworsky -but it hasn't---sometimes the +/- really does show INDIVIDUAL flaws ..and so it sure does look like ROY simply stinks defensively and so not sure why he gets the selection over the even bigger but clearly more solid on d WHEATON?

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12-13-2012, 01:46 PM
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Kevin Forbes
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One thing I didn't get the chance to do (for length and time) was compare the rosters to the preliminary and identification lists from CSB to see if any 'A' level prospects didn't get the call.

Keep in mind that these rosters aren't built for fan enjoyment, nor are they necessarily representative of the "top prospects" available in the CHL. I believe that NHL teams have significant input in determining what players are attending based on who they want to see. That doesn't always reflect any one person's opinion of what player ranks where or who is "better" or "more deserving" than anyone else.

Something else that interests me about this (and there's quite a bit, I got genuinely excited to cover this event while writing this article) are the storylines entering in. Not only is it Jones and MacKinnon (which is defenseman vs. forward, American vs. Canadian, West Coast vs. East Coast and maybe even a redemption for one after the World Juniors), but a lot of the other players involved have some cool stories too. I hope to be able to share some of them.

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12-13-2012, 02:33 PM
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Kevin Forbes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
Not every good prospect can get selected to the game BUT still why 2 Brandon Wheat Kings prospect D-men made it (Pulock and Roy) ,while only 1 Kelowna prospect made it (Bowey) is perhaps debateable--sure Pulock and Roy are "offensive" but Bowey and WHEATON are reliable defenively ...In the selection OBVIOUSLY they chose ROY over WHEATON because I guess 6g+14a for 20 pts in 33 games played is enticing when you are a 6'3 190 lb d-man and only 0g+7a for 7pts in 30GP is not so "worthy of selection EVEN though you are BIGGER (6'5 225 for WHEATON)--and oh yes that "insignificant" differential in the +/- : that is ROY's stinky -24 vs, Wheaton's impressive +20 ...

Now the usual response is that everyone knows that =/- is meaningless-it only reflects TEAM not INDIVIDUAL net positive or negative equal strength performance ...YET i) EVERYONE also knows Kelowna actually teaches their D-men how to play defense,while this is an after-thougtr over the years in Brandon --and a betting man would be a fool to think all they have to do is teach the Brandon kid properly and they will learn to be better d-men...but I suugest that looking at the differential in+/- even between the 2 Brandon D-men --we find Pulock is at least ok at a +11 while ROY is a whopping -24 -that simply cannot be due to TEAM defense (both are good offensively --Pulock at 28 pts in 27GP and Roy at 20 pts in 33GP...MAYBE ROY simply is awful defensively and may NEVER LEARN ?

Meanwhile--as usual--Kelowna teaches their d how to play good defense---BOWEY is +26 wth 14 pts in 31Gp and WHEATON is +20 in 30GP despite only contributing 7 assits to the offense.

Now usually 6'5 225 d-men who are +20 in just 30GP WOULD spark a lot of TOP PROSPECT consideration--but somehow I guess the scouts think ROY has more 'upside" and think they can teach him out of having NO CLUE how to play the D-man position properly to stop the opponents from scoring.

WEll life is a mystery --and it would seem the selectors for this game have perhaps overlooked THE OBVIOUS... which is that it occurs to me that a +54 TOTAL differential in favour of Wheaton ought to be more "deserving" of the spot-but what do I know? Sure offense sells tickets --defense is hard work and boring -but If you are going to win games -what would you rather have --the better offensive player or the steady and reliable defensive guy ? yes I know--scouts are looking at the not now but the overall potential several years out -WHEATON won't ever bring much offense but MAYBE they can teach ROY defense --the caveat is MAYBE --the clincher is that Roy leads the entire BRANDON team in this stat of NEGATIVE 24
and yes 3 other Brandon d-men are -10,-16,-19 the other top 2 are +11 and +9
(Bowey and Yaworsky respectively) --but this only shows how bad Roy is in comparioson to the 3 other poor defensive D-men ...and the fact that with their top pairing being +11 and +9 --it means that the real problem is with iNDIVIDUAL d-men D-zone play and not really the whole team --because SOME D-men mnaged to be POSITIVE in ES play -so in THIS CAE it reaaly does seem to be an "INDIVIDUAL" issue..IF it was simply forwards and goalie issues that WOULD impact NEGATIVELY even on Pulock and Yaworsky -but it hasn't---sometimes the +/- really does show INDIVIDUAL flaws ..and so it sure does look like ROY simply stinks defensively and so not sure why he gets the selection over the even bigger but clearly more solid on d WHEATON?
I'm not intimately familiar with the WHL or the players you mentioned here, but this is an excellent reason why utilizing the plus/minus stat as some sort of indication for defensive play, especially when comparing players in different organizations is an incomplete argument.

The Brandon Wheat Kings are winning at a pace of .394, nothing to write home about, they're on the losing side of the spectrum. They've scored 94 goals this year and have allowed 138 goals against. In total, as a team, they've scored 44 fewer goals than they've let in. So the team's plus/minus is -44.

The Kelowna Rockets are winning at a pace of .688, which is something to write home about, they're one of the top teams in the Western Conference. They've scored 130 goals this year and have only allowed 78 goals be scored against them. In total, as a team, they've scored 52 more goals than they've let in. So the team's plus/minus is +52.

Now again, as mentioned, I don't know a lot about the particular strengths and weaknesses of the players mentioned above in comparison to one another, but I can tell you without a doubt that the plus/minus of a top defenseman for Brandon will be quite a bit lower from the plus/minus for a top defenseman in Kelowna. You can't compare players from two teams that have a differential of over 90 goals between them and expect that you're comparing apples to apples.

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Old
12-13-2012, 03:28 PM
  #5
caley
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I like Wheaton, but I think it comes down to some very simple numbers, rather than analyzing +/- and points and GF and GA.

The numbers are 9 and 22.

As in, Eric Roy is rated at #9 on the CSB Rankings for the WHL, while Wheaton is #22.

Will this change by the end of the year? Possibly, possibly not. Roy is a big defenceman logging lots of minutes on a terrible team and putting up decent points with a bad +/-. Wheaton is a big defenceman playing less ice time on a terrific team and putting negligible points with a good +/-/ It's not as cut and dried as you think.

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