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Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:54 AM
  #1
franfrey*
 
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Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

Now shooting at a 28% pace in the AHL this year... Does everyone still think he can't keep up a 17-19% pace in the NHL?

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12-16-2012, 05:21 AM
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This won't end well

And 28% its unsustainable, at least in the NHL, he's insane though
Maybe he can have that 17-20% a couple of times more in his career but I doubt he'll have it that high in the NHL every season.

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12-16-2012, 05:28 AM
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Krishna
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The last few years has seen the average shooting percentage in the NHL under 10%.

Last year for players above 20 goals, the top 5 shooting percentages were :
Curtis Glencross with 23.6% with 26 goals
Steven Stamkos with 19.8% with 60 goals
Jiri Hudler with 19.7% with 25 goals
Jordan Eberle with 18.9% with 34 goals
David Perron with 18.4% with 21 goals

While he may have had a high shooting percentage last year, it's unlikely that he sustains that pace. 12-15% is more likely

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12-16-2012, 06:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post

While he may have had a high shooting percentage last year, it's unlikely that he sustains that pace. 12-15% is more likely
Wrong. Eberle has now demonstrated in consecutive seasons in professional leagues that he puts up unusually high shooting percentages. It is more likely that he will remain one of the highest percentage shooters in the league rather than dropping to a 12% shooting percentage.

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12-16-2012, 06:14 AM
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Krishna
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas View Post
Wrong. Eberle has now demonstrated in consecutive seasons in professional leagues that he puts up unusually high shooting percentages. It is more likely that he will remain one of the highest percentage shooters in the league rather than dropping to a 12% shooting percentage.
an 11.4% in his first year isn't considered 'unusually high'

Putting up high shooting percentages in the AHL is pretty irrelevant when it comes to the NHL since the goalies are much better

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12-16-2012, 07:38 AM
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no because he's clutch and has intangibles don't look at stats watch the games

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12-16-2012, 07:46 AM
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Most likely. I do expect him to have a below average shooting percentage due to the shots he takes, but if he was able to keep 18%+ up, I'd be surprised.

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12-16-2012, 08:04 AM
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Eberle's response was that it's because he doesn't waste shots. Unless he changes his mind and starts shooting from anywhere, he'll probably always be above average.

He's smart and skilled. If he doesn't feel like the shot is there he doesn't take it anyway, he tries to set up a play instead.

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12-16-2012, 08:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
no because he's clutch and has intangibles don't look at stats watch the games
But it's a thread about stats!

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12-16-2012, 09:34 AM
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Jordan Eberle is Unsustainable

Jordan Eberle is your favourite hockey player's favourite hockey player. Too good.

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12-16-2012, 09:58 AM
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Funny how Stamkos has a high shooting %age and no one says anything about sustainability...

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12-16-2012, 10:04 AM
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Guys like Stamkos and Eberle have better scoring touches. Thats it. Its not luck that they have a higher % than average. The actual % should be taken in relation to the overall numbers in a group.

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12-16-2012, 10:08 AM
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There's really no way to be sure of this...

In all likelihood, no.

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Old
12-16-2012, 10:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
Funny how Stamkos has a high shooting %age and no one says anything about sustainability...
Stamkos scoring 60 goals is likely unsustainable. But even if his shooting % drops a chunk, that's still like 50 goals.

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12-16-2012, 10:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
Funny how Stamkos has a high shooting %age and no one says anything about sustainability...
Stamkos is also the best goalscorer in the NHL by a mile. Eberle is not on that level.

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12-16-2012, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuklaNation View Post
Guys like Stamkos and Eberle have better scoring touches. Thats it. Its not luck that they have a higher % than average. The actual % should be taken in relation to the overall numbers in a group.
That's how I see it. Both are accurate, Stamkos just happens to shoot more than Eberle and therefore, more goals.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Stamkos scoring 60 goals is likely unsustainable. But even if his shooting % drops a chunk, that's still like 50 goals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Stamkos is also the best goalscorer in the NHL by a mile. Eberle is not on that level.
Not denying Stamkos isn't the best but my point was people make such a big deal about Eberle and his shooting % and say because it's Eberle, he'll never maintain it.

Some players just choose their shots better and when to shoot. Avoiding "wasteful" shots if you want to call it. Ovechkin was [is?] a great player but he has a ~12% shooting percentage...all because he just shoots for the sake of shooting the puck/

I reckon if Eberle shot as much as Stamkos [Eberle, over 2 seasons, avg ~180/year shots vs Stamkos ~250/year], he could be close.

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12-16-2012, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
I reckon if Eberle shot as much as Stamkos [Eberle, over 2 seasons, avg ~180/year shots vs Stamkos ~250/year], he could be close.
If Eberle would shoot more, wouldn't that mean he would start to take more low percentage shots and his shooting percentage would go down, given the logic used in this thread?

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12-16-2012, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Stamkos is also the best goalscorer in the NHL by a mile. Eberle is not on that level.
stamkos also shoots the puck at almost double the rate as eberle to.

eberle with his shooting stats, seems to be just like thornton when it comes to shooting the puck.

thornton over his career put up 15+ shooting % on a regular basis, and that is mainly for a 20 goal scorer.

thornton over his career is an odd breed, years where he shoots more he scores less, but when he shoots less he scores more.

i see the same kind of stuff happening with eberle.

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12-16-2012, 10:39 AM
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The shots will simply stop going in at such a high rate at some point, especially with how defensive-oriented the NHL is rapidly becoming.

19-20% is unsustainable for him.

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12-16-2012, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
This won't end well.
Does it ever?

Has there ever been a thread where people concede and all come to an agreement on anything? Curious.


Of course Eb's shooting % is unsustainable. Nobody's is sustainable.

Merry Christmas.


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12-16-2012, 10:50 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
If Eberle would shoot more, wouldn't that mean he would start to take more low percentage shots and his shooting percentage would go down, given the logic used in this thread?
Shooting more doesn't necessarily equate to taking bad shots. That's not how Eberle plays...which unfortunately, most don't understand or want to accept.

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12-16-2012, 10:52 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
The shots will simply stop going in at such a high rate at some point, especially with how defensive-oriented the NHL is rapidly becoming.

19-20% is unsustainable for him.
And it's sustainable for Stamkos? Some players just pick their shots.

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12-16-2012, 11:00 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
And it's sustainable for Stamkos? Some players just pick their shots.
Stamkos is a better goalscorer, so yes.

Eberle has had some great luck. It's not going to last.

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12-16-2012, 11:06 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vasilevski View Post
This won't end well

And 28% its unsustainable, at least in the NHL, he's insane though
Maybe he can have that 17-20% a couple of times more in his career but I doubt he'll have it that high in the NHL every season.
Is he Sergei Makarov? If not, he can't sustain that 28% in the NHL...

Makarov.

WTF no HHOF for him??????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
The last few years has seen the average shooting percentage in the NHL under 10%.

Last year for players above 20 goals, the top 5 shooting percentages were :
Curtis Glencross with 23.6% with 26 goals
Steven Stamkos with 19.8% with 60 goals
Jiri Hudler with 19.7% with 25 goals
Jordan Eberle with 18.9% with 34 goals
David Perron with 18.4% with 21 goals

While he may have had a high shooting percentage last year, it's unlikely that he sustains that pace. 12-15% is more likely
I didn't see every game of Eberle. Where were most of his goals/shots coming from? Was it an Andrew Brunette situation where he was in close for just about everything?

I kept a close watch on Hudler and he was scoring well on wrist shots from pretty much anywhere within 30 feet; so he should be able to sustain at least 16%+. Going back on Hudler's stats, you see a 14.8% in 2008-09 that is dragged down by his PP (he played down low as the primary playmaker with a bad angle on the right boards, but would sometimes fire a shot on net if he didn't have a pass or thought Z/Franzen would pick up the rebound (which often happened; he put up 6-22-28 on that PP unit compared to 17-12-29 at ES the same year). In 2006-07 Hudler's % is artificially high and probably should have been closer to 12%, and artifically low the next year (should have again been closer to 12-13%) because of his situations; in 2007 he scored most of his goals on close to the net chances and took far fewer range shots. In 2008 he played on a much weaker line than 09 or 12, and was forced to start shooting more, but he was focused on heavily as he was the only scoring threat and therefore didn't get many good chances because he was (for the most part) the only player on the ice creating scoring opportunities. In 2011, he started the year slumping with a slumping Modano who wouldn't play the system (IMHO Mo is the worst possible center type for Hudler) and an injured Dan Cleary. After 30 games of meh (1 goal, 6 points, 50 shots, 2%!!), Hudler turned it around and scored 9-22-31 in 43 games and 55 shots (, with a shooting percentage of 16.4%.

Eberle's shooting percentage could go down, up, or stay the same depending on how his situation compares to these for Huder. Will Edmonton split up the Big 4 and make it 2 and 2, with Gagner centering Hall and Yak while RNH centers Eberle and Hemsky? Do they stack Hall/RNH/Eberle? Does Eberle get bumped by Yak to the Hemsky/Gagner line?

I would expect Eberle to get closer to 16% the next couple of seasons, but I would also expect him to shoot more. However, if he starts getting a better percentage of chances his s% will obviously increase. See the "ten-foot killer" (Andrew Brunette) for that information.

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12-16-2012, 11:07 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Stamkos is a better goalscorer, so yes.

Eberle has had some great luck. It's not going to last.
he's shown that he doesn't shoot much, but still puts up goals. in the nhl and now even in the ahl. 19 goals on 68 shots (this is really high).

this year in the ahl he is averaging 2.72 shots per game, and averaging 0.76 goals per game. so basically for every 2 shots he takes he scores a goal.

in the nhl he averaged 2.30 shots per game, and averaged 0.43 goals per game.

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