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Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

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Old
12-16-2012, 02:34 PM
  #51
Puritania
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Stamkos is a better goalscorer, so yes.

Eberle has had some great luck. It's not going to last.
That was a great way to tell people you don't watch Eberle at all. If you watched him you would see how skilled and precise he is. That's not to say he will always stay at such a high percentage. He will likely drop a bit, but I wouldn't expect it to regress dramatically like people hope.

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12-16-2012, 02:54 PM
  #52
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I'm pleased with Eberle's ability to put up an ungodly shooting percentage while he can in any professional league. I can't say for sure why some Oilers fans appear to take offense to people saying Eberle has an unsustainable SH%. Some of those raw nerves are likely a result of "Oiler fan(?)" Tyler Dellow and his this time is different blog post.

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Old
12-16-2012, 03:07 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
And the best part is he's taking as many shots as Kovalchuk. Stamkos is a pure goal scorer. Eberle isn't
Why exactly isn't Eberle a pure goal scorer? He has been an elite level goal scorer everywhere he's played. Of course Jordan Eberle is not Steven Stamkos, but it isn't unreasonable to suggest that he has an unusually good wrist shot and knows when to use it.

It is likely that his shooting % drops to a more sustainable level, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that he will maintain a higher than usual one due to the caliber of his wrist shot.

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12-16-2012, 03:12 PM
  #54
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All these arguments about S% are so stupid they are literally tough to read. I think people should study a book on statistics before be allowed to post. Almost every argument raised is a mish mash of concepts and examples that contradict eachother and render the argument useless. You cannot compare players on an objective basis. Every player is different and has different playing styles. Please stop using the term "regression to the mean" when talking about humans, there is no mean that one can objectively say every single player must be bound to.

The s% is a product of a good shot and a specific playing style. Also, stop linking a regression in s% to a regression in points. Eberle played the least amount of minutes amongst anyone in the top 15 in league scoring and had the 2nd most ppts/min. Whats going to happen when he plays more? more shots.

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12-16-2012, 03:24 PM
  #55
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Obviously he's not going to up a +20% shooting % forever, however it is a testament of how the kid plays, he's a highly effective hockey player with high hockey IQ, he knows how to pick his shots.

14-18% shooting % during his prime is not unreasonable, which is exactly where he'll be shooting on a yearly basis

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:01 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
All these arguments about S% are so stupid they are literally tough to read. I think people should study a book on statistics before be allowed to post. Almost every argument raised is a mish mash of concepts and examples that contradict eachother and render the argument useless. You cannot compare players on an objective basis. Every player is different and has different playing styles. Please stop using the term "regression to the mean" when talking about humans, there is no mean that one can objectively say every single player must be bound to.

The s% is a product of a good shot and a specific playing style. Also, stop linking a regression in s% to a regression in points. Eberle played the least amount of minutes amongst anyone in the top 15 in league scoring and had the 2nd most ppts/min. Whats going to happen when he plays more? more shots.
Couldn't have said it better. When Stamkos shoots, its because he's just that good. When Eberle shoots, he's just lucky. The guy just picks his shots all the time-his style sets himself up for a higher shooting percentage.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:20 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Puritania View Post
That was a great way to tell people you don't watch Eberle at all. If you watched him you would see how skilled and precise he is. That's not to say he will always stay at such a high percentage. He will likely drop a bit, but I wouldn't expect it to regress dramatically like people hope.
Huh? I must have not realized that I also typed "Eberle has no skill and sucks."

Great, he's skilled and precise. So are a bunch of players in the league, and almost none of them have shooting percentages that high.

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12-16-2012, 04:21 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Huh? I must have not realized that I also typed "Eberle has no skill and sucks."

Great, he's skilled and precise. So are a bunch of players in the league, and almost none of them have shooting percentages that high.
Because they're not as precise? better explanation than "luck"

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12-16-2012, 04:24 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
Because they're not as precise? better explanation than "luck"
Glad someone got the point I was getting across.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:25 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
Because they're not as precise? better explanation than "luck"
Two players had a shooting percentage that high last year, and one of them was Steven Stamkos.

I think luck is a safe explanation, unless Eberle has suddenly become as good a scorer as Stamkos. Maybe that's his new HF reputation, I admit I haven't kept up with the ridiculous Oilers hype train lately.

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12-16-2012, 04:36 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Two players had a shooting percentage that high last year, and one of them was Steven Stamkos.

I think luck is a safe explanation, unless Eberle has suddenly become as good a scorer as Stamkos. Maybe that's his new HF reputation, I admit I haven't kept up with the ridiculous Oilers hype train lately.
shooting % does not measure their complete goal scoring ability...it's just an indicator of how well or how accurate they shoot... or was Ovechkin never an elite goal scorer either? guy shot at like 12-14%

Im surprised you don't know the difference.

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12-16-2012, 04:39 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
shooting % does not measure their goal scoring ability...it's just an indicator of how well or how accurate they shoot... or was Ovechkin never an elite goal scorer either? guy shot at like 12-14%

Im surprised you don't know the difference.
I do know the difference and have said what it is, only to be shot down by mostly Edmonton fans. The difference tends to be luck.

Some years, your shots are just going in more often than usual. Such was the case for Eberle.

Shooting percentage is a great indicator of how lucky a player was. Stamkos is one of the few exceptions.

If Eberle goes and does it again in the NHL whenever we next have a season, I'll eat my words. Until then, I'll stick with the norm for judging a high shooting percentage... that is, the guy was pretty fortunate.

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12-16-2012, 04:39 PM
  #63
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Funny how Stamkos has a high shooting %age and no one says anything about sustainability...
Eberle is not as good as Stamkos. Stammer's ability to sustain that kind of % is one of the things that makes him an elite player. Eberle is a very good player, but I in no way expect he'll be shooting over 15-16% once the NHL starts again.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:40 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Yourface View Post
Eberle can seriously score from everywhere. He's an elite finisher in front of the net, he has an extremely accurate wrist shot and great positioning. He also loves to dangle and make sure he has a great angle/opportunity to score before shooting the puck.

His goal at 3:02 in this video really demonstrates why he has such a high sh%... So much patience.
Interesting video. It shows me that Eberle mostly scores (and prefers to shoot) from in close, but has a pretty decent writer and backhand.

Ultimately, though, that kind of situation isn't always good for a player's career. I'll bring up Andrew Brunette again. He had a great shot, but took the majority of his shots from in close. Therefore he had a strong shooting percentage and a couple of solid scoring years. But in years where he didn't get to those areas as much, and didn't take the shot, his scoring dropped (even if his s% didn't). Eberle is a much better skater and less likely to suffer that (although he doesn't have Brunette's "magic hands") but if he wants to be an elite scoring winger he needs to become a bit more of the Kovalchuk type and be willing to take those shots from distance.

Quote:
I should also mention that he's been playing with (likely) career AHLers in Arcobello and Hamilton these last few games (including the one where he scored 4 goals on 4 shots last night) so the "playing with good players helps his %" argument doesn't really hold water.
1) Playing with good players does help your shooting percentage, by improving your offensive situation.

2) A career AHLer does not necessarily mean they are worse in the AHL than many NHL players. Donald MacLean is a good example.

3) Playing against bad players (especially goaltenders) also helps your s%. If a player's teammates suck, but the oppoing goalie always 1) drops into the butterfly when he sees a shot released, and 2) has a slow glove, and 3) that player has a quick wrist shot, then 4) a quick wrister to the high glove side will often go in.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:47 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
All these arguments about S% are so stupid they are literally tough to read. I think people should study a book on statistics before be allowed to post. Almost every argument raised is a mish mash of concepts and examples that contradict eachother and render the argument useless. You cannot compare players on an objective basis. Every player is different and has different playing styles. Please stop using the term "regression to the mean" when talking about humans, there is no mean that one can objectively say every single player must be bound to.

The s% is a product of a good shot and a specific playing style. Also, stop linking a regression in s% to a regression in points. Eberle played the least amount of minutes amongst anyone in the top 15 in league scoring and had the 2nd most ppts/min. Whats going to happen when he plays more? more shots.
Of course there is regression to the mean when it comes to players who had a season with extremely high shooting percentage. Every player doesn't have the same mean, of course. Eberle most likely has a higher mean than Eager.

There is plenty of data about this and many players have had outliers where their shooting percentage is much higher than what it will be in other years. Playing style doesn't make you immune to this. Being highly skilled doesn't make you immune to this.

Even though a player takes a couple of hundred shots in a season, statistically speaking it's a tiny sample and randomness will have a big impact on the shooting percentage of a season.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:55 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Two players had a shooting percentage that high last year, and one of them was Steven Stamkos.

I think luck is a safe explanation, unless Eberle has suddenly become as good a scorer as Stamkos. Maybe that's his new HF reputation, I admit I haven't kept up with the ridiculous Oilers hype train lately.
Actually there were about 5 or 6 players with 20 goals at or above 18%

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12-16-2012, 04:56 PM
  #67
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That's unsustainable, but I wouldn't see his % going the other way either, and dropping very low. Eberle is a special player, he's so slick, I can see him continually putting himself in great shooting area and being in the upper echelon year after year.

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Old
12-16-2012, 04:59 PM
  #68
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Actually there were about 5 or 6 players with 20 goals at or above 18%
That's not really the point, but I stand corrected.

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Old
12-16-2012, 05:49 PM
  #69
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So... When is Ebs going to start getting unlucky? It's been awhile now...

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12-16-2012, 05:50 PM
  #70
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You can't compare Eberle to guys like Kovalchuk/Ovechkin. Those guys have really heavy shots and are confident in their ability to score from anywhere. As a result they shoot from further out and have lower %'s. Eberle scores most of his goals from inside the hashmarks. He doesn't fire slapshots from the blueline like a lot of players in the league.

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12-16-2012, 05:51 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsujimoto74 View Post
Eberle is not as good as Stamkos. Stammer's ability to sustain that kind of % is one of the things that makes him an elite player. Eberle is a very good player, but I in no way expect he'll be shooting over 15-16% once the NHL starts again.
who would you say is the better goal scorer joe thornton or eberle?

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Old
12-16-2012, 06:01 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by The Great Ones View Post
So... When is Ebs going to start getting unlucky? It's been awhile now...
Not really. Just one season of an abnormally high (ahem, lucky) shooting percentage.

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12-16-2012, 06:11 PM
  #73
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As an oiler fan this stat considers me not at all. Eberle is a very good hockey player and he will get his points and his goals. I'd be more worried about young oilers health than their shooting %.

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Old
12-16-2012, 06:13 PM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Great Ones View Post
So... When is Ebs going to start getting unlucky? It's been awhile now...
He's had one season at 18.4%

His AHL shooting percentage is irrelevant since he is playing against worse goalies.

His first season's shooting percentage was about 11%

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Old
12-16-2012, 06:20 PM
  #75
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Quote:
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If Eberle goes and does it again in the NHL whenever we next have a season, I'll eat my words.
You know if there's an increase in scoring like the last two lockouts he's even more likely to do it.

Quote:
Until then, I'll stick with the norm for judging a high shooting percentage... that is, the guy was pretty fortunate.
Other examples that illustrate "the norm" are?

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