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Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

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Old
12-16-2012, 05:25 PM
  #76
Krishna
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angelus View Post
You know if there's an increase in scoring like the last two lockouts he's even more likely to do it.



Other examples that illustrate "the norm" are?
For all players
NHL-Average-Shot-Percentage.jpg

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NHL-Forwards-Average-Shot-Percentage.jpg

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12-16-2012, 05:28 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
All these arguments about S% are so stupid they are literally tough to read. I think people should study a book on statistics before be allowed to post. Almost every argument raised is a mish mash of concepts and examples that contradict eachother and render the argument useless. You cannot compare players on an objective basis. Every player is different and has different playing styles. Please stop using the term "regression to the mean" when talking about humans, there is no mean that one can objectively say every single player must be bound to.
Except, you can.

The vast, vast, vast, VAST...vast majority of NHL players have a shooting percentage of at or around 12-15%.

Eberle is an exceptional player who can create scoring opportunities out of nothing. But because his shooting percentage is above the League average, we can expect him to regress.

Unless your name is Steven Stamkos, you don't have multiple seasons at 19%+ shooting. Now, maybe Eberle is such an amazing player that he will join Stamkos in being unique to every other player in the League. But when the question is "Stamkos vs. the rest of the League", it should be obvious why people are going with the rest of the League.

So, yes. Eberle's shooting percentage is unsustainable. He'll probably compensate by taking more shots or getting more assists.

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12-16-2012, 05:29 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angelus View Post
You know if there's an increase in scoring like the last two lockouts he's even more likely to do it.



Other examples that illustrate "the norm" are?
These.


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12-16-2012, 05:30 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
Unless your name is Steven Stamkos, you don't have multiple seasons at 19%+ shooting.
That's not how you spell Andrew Brunette.

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12-16-2012, 05:31 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
That's not how you spell Andrew Brunette.
The player whose shot percentage (and goals) have been steadily decreasing since his year of 19% in 2009-2010?

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12-16-2012, 05:40 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
The player whose shot percentage (and goals) have been steadily decreasing since his year of 19% in 2009-2010?
I'm sorry I forgot players are supposed to score more and shoot better once they start turning 37,38 and 39


Last edited by Sky04: 12-16-2012 at 05:50 PM.
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12-16-2012, 05:44 PM
  #82
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His shooting % is not sustainable. I predict it will go up and settle in the 87-94% range.

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12-16-2012, 05:52 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
I'm sorry I forgot players are supposed to score more and shoot better once they start turning 37,38 and 39
Yes, I made a mistake and saw only the last 3 years of his career.

So there's Stamkos and Brunnette. That's two. Still the vast, vast, vast, VAST majority of players have a shooting percentage of around 12-15%.

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12-16-2012, 06:11 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
He's had one season at 18.4%

His AHL shooting percentage is irrelevant since he is playing against worse goalies.

His first season's shooting percentage was about 11%
You would not say that if his shooting percentage was hovering around 12% in the AHL. You'd use that as evidence that he can't maintain a higher than average shooting percentage.

You're basically saying "I disregard what he's doing now because it doesn't fit my opinion of what I expect to see."

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12-16-2012, 06:17 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
You would not say that if his shooting percentage was hovering around 12% in the AHL. You'd use that as evidence that he can't maintain a higher than average shooting percentage.

You're basically saying "I disregard what he's doing now because it doesn't fit my opinion of what I expect to see."
No?

I pretty much disregard the AHL stats for the most part

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12-16-2012, 06:20 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
You would not say that if his shooting percentage was hovering around 12% in the AHL. You'd use that as evidence that he can't maintain a higher than average shooting percentage.

You're basically saying "I disregard what he's doing now because it doesn't fit my opinion of what I expect to see."
No, it's because we're talking about a guy's production and shooting percentage in the NHL.

The AHL is irrelevant.

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12-16-2012, 06:40 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
No, it's because we're talking about a guy's production and shooting percentage in the NHL.

The AHL is irrelevant.
Shooting at near 30% is not irrelevant.

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12-16-2012, 06:51 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Shooting at near 30% is not irrelevant.
When you're an NHLer who has scored at near a PPG pace in the NHL and you are shooting against career AHLers, it is irrelevant.

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12-16-2012, 07:04 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Shooting at near 30% is not irrelevant.
but it must be put into contex, he is an established NHL player and goal scorer playing in the AHL. It helps the substainable shooting % but doesn't prove it, one or two more seasons in the NHL will.

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Old
12-16-2012, 07:10 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Shooting at near 30% is not irrelevant.
Um... I think that speaks volumes to the fact that these numbers are silly to consider, does it not?

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Old
12-16-2012, 07:55 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
Shooting more doesn't necessarily equate to taking bad shots. That's not how Eberle plays...which unfortunately, most don't understand or want to accept.
Point being that you already said Eberle doesn't take low percentage shots, wasteful shots. The question of why doesn't he shoot more then becomes pretty easy to answer - he simply doesn't put himself in position to score as often as a guy like Stamkos. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Somehow, you have to account for why he doesn't take a higher volume of high percentage shots.

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12-16-2012, 08:00 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
he's shown that he doesn't shoot much, but still puts up goals. in the nhl and now even in the ahl. 19 goals on 68 shots (this is really high).

this year in the ahl he is averaging 2.72 shots per game, and averaging 0.76 goals per game. so basically for every 2 shots he takes he scores a goal.

in the nhl he averaged 2.30 shots per game, and averaged 0.43 goals per game.
That's some interesting math. His shooting percentage is about 28% which means for roughly every 3 three shots he takes he scores a goal...

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12-16-2012, 08:03 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
Stamkos and Eberle are both guys that pick their spots relative to guys like Ovi and Landeskog who throw a lot of pucks at the net and therefore will always have above average shooting %s.

That said, both of their percentages are unsustainable. They'll tail off a bit and people will make ridiculous threads about Stamkos being past his prime in a few seasons just like with Ovi.
If Stamkos goes from scoring 55-60 goals to 30-35 he will be past his prime.

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12-16-2012, 08:22 PM
  #94
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Why does it matter? He was a 50 goal scorer in Junior, scored 34 in his second NHL season, and is now on pace for over 50 goals and over 100 points in the AHL as a 22 year old. I could care less about his shooting %. He's a proven scorer, so I'll expect him to be a top line scorer in the NHL regardless of cherry picked stats like shooting %

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12-16-2012, 08:28 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by Shanahanigans View Post
Why does it matter? He was a 50 goal scorer in Junior, scored 34 in his second NHL season, and is now on pace for over 50 goals and over 100 points in the AHL as a 22 year old. I could care less about his shooting %. He's a proven scorer, so I'll expect him to be a top line scorer in the NHL regardless of cherry picked stats like shooting %
So to what extent could you care less?

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12-16-2012, 08:29 PM
  #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Two players had a shooting percentage that high last year, and one of them was Steven Stamkos.

I think luck is a safe explanation, unless Eberle has suddenly become as good a scorer as Stamkos. Maybe that's his new HF reputation, I admit I haven't kept up with the ridiculous Oilers hype train lately.
Eberle is one of the guys closest to Stamkos at finishing. He like everyone else lags behind in creating opportunities to finish.

Summery, Stamkos is better than pretty much everyone at getting into scoring position. he is also much better than most players at cashing in those opportunities.

Some players come close in often getting into scoring position, but can't light the lamp as often. Some aren't quite as good at creating scoring opportunities, but are almost as good at finishing them off when they do.(Eberle is in the 2nd group.)

Stamkos stands out because he excels at both being in the right place to score goals, and in making those chances count.

The types of chances Eberle turns into goals seem less susceptible to randomness than a lot of players. he doesn't score a lot by just shooting at the net. he scores by getting himself into position to bury the chances. (His backhand is deadly in close, the one thing I feel safe saying he actually does better than Stammer.) If his scoring goes down dramatically, it is more likely going to be because his number of chances decreases (IE people stop him from breaking in on net,) than it would be from him somehow starting to miss.

he scores most of his goals in tight, with sick hands, he doesn't score often by taking shots from everywhere.

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12-16-2012, 08:50 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by UnrefinedCrude View Post
he scores by getting himself into position to bury the chances. (His backhand is deadly in close, the one thing I feel safe saying he actually does better than Stammer.) If his scoring goes down dramatically, it is more likely going to be because his number of chances decreases (IE people stop him from breaking in on net,) than it would be from him somehow starting to miss.

this. Eberle is such a smart player, he just knows where to go to get the goals. Throw in a top tei backhand and some very very good hands you got a guy who is going to score on a lot of his shots just because he gets himself to places where it's easy to score.

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12-16-2012, 09:09 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
When you're an NHLer who has scored at near a PPG pace in the NHL and you are shooting against career AHLers, it is irrelevant.
That's the whole point. If he was a flash in the pan his shooting % would be similar or even lower. The fact that he's almost doubled it in the AHL says something.

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12-17-2012, 03:24 AM
  #99
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What's with the whole "career average" BS? Every player has a prime, that is how most players are measured, and since he is in his early 20's his prime is quickly approaching. He will not shoot 12% in his next full NHL season no matter how many people think that he will just because math says that that is the case with most players. Eberle is not most players. I'd suspect that he'll shoot between 15-20% the next full NHL season.

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12-17-2012, 03:34 AM
  #100
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1) Guy has a top-15 shot in the game - unreal accuracy/timing
2) He doesn't waste shots - high hockey IQ lets him shoot when he feels the time is right - probably top-5 in the game in terms of KNOWING when to shoot
3) He plays with RN freakin' H, the guy gets wide-open chances more than most forwards in the league. He's gonna pot them.

Is 17-19% sustainable? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him do it a few more times before his career is done.

I say he probably averages around 15-16% for the next 10 years though. Yes that's high. Probably puts him in the top-10 on an annual basis. But why not? Some players just have that touch - it's pretty clear that he's one of them.

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