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Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

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Old
12-17-2012, 06:56 AM
  #101
InjuredChoker
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Over the past few years I've learned not to bet against this kid.

There was thread about this around an year ago. His sh% was 18.8 at the time iirc and some poster said no way he maintains that for the whole season.

Eberle finished the season with 18.9 sh%.

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Old
12-17-2012, 07:48 AM
  #102
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Stamkos is a better goalscorer, so yes.

Eberle has had some great luck. It's not going to last.
IMO saying that any achievement realized by a pro player is due to luck is being ignorant or just disliking that player... the only thing about ones career that i could attribute to luck is the lack of injuries..

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12-17-2012, 08:48 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
IMO saying that any achievement realized by a pro player is due to luck is being ignorant or just disliking that player... the only thing about ones career that i could attribute to luck is the lack of injuries..
every player gets injured. just some are able to play through basically anything and everything.

thornton has played with torn rib cartilage, broken hands/feet, missing a finger (basically it was hanging by a thread), dislocated shoulder.

i am actually starting to think he can play though anything.

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Old
12-17-2012, 08:57 AM
  #104
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Eberle's a great player but I doubt he gets that high a shooting percentage every year.

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12-17-2012, 09:29 AM
  #105
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There's no such thing as "wasting a shot"

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12-17-2012, 09:30 AM
  #106
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There's no such thing as "wasting a shot"
See Magnus Paajarvi and Ethan Moreau

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Old
12-17-2012, 09:34 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
every player gets injured. just some are able to play through basically anything and everything.

thornton has played with torn rib cartilage, broken hands/feet, missing a finger (basically it was hanging by a thread), dislocated shoulder.

i am actually starting to think he can play though anything.
yeah what i meant was that sometimes players are lucky for not getting seriously injured on certain plays.

see


Gorges didnt miss any games IIRC

thats pretty lucky if u ask me

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12-17-2012, 09:37 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
yeah what i meant was that sometimes players are lucky for not getting seriously injured on certain plays.

see


Gorges didnt miss any games IIRC

thats pretty lucky if u ask me
lol yeah i know, then you have this waste of money.


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Old
12-17-2012, 09:50 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
All these arguments about S% are so stupid they are literally tough to read. I think people should study a book on statistics before be allowed to post. Almost every argument raised is a mish mash of concepts and examples that contradict eachother and render the argument useless. You cannot compare players on an objective basis. Every player is different and has different playing styles. Please stop using the term "regression to the mean" when talking about humans, there is no mean that one can objectively say every single player must be bound to.

The s% is a product of a good shot and a specific playing style. Also, stop linking a regression in s% to a regression in points. Eberle played the least amount of minutes amongst anyone in the top 15 in league scoring and had the 2nd most ppts/min. Whats going to happen when he plays more? more shots.
lol wut.

You can absolutely use descriptive statistics to describe probable behaviour in a structured environment, when you have a massive amount of data upon which you can draw. It's not a matter of a mean that every player must be bound to, it's that the historical data suggests it is likely (*likely*, not inevitable) that regression will occur. I don't think anyone is saying that this 'must' happen, but it is likely that it will happen.

I agree that subjectively, Eberle seems like he might be able to sustain a high S%. However, 18.9% over the long term puts him in the top 20 to play since S% has been measured. I find this unlikely.

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12-17-2012, 09:59 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Yossarian54 View Post
lol wut.

You can absolutely use descriptive statistics to describe probable behaviour in a structured environment, when you have a massive amount of data upon which you can draw. It's not a matter of a mean that every player must be bound to, it's that the historical data suggests it is likely (*likely*, not inevitable) that regression will occur. I don't think anyone is saying that this 'must' happen, but it is likely that it will happen.

I agree that subjectively, Eberle seems like he might be able to sustain a high S%. However, 18.9% over the long term puts him in the top 20 to play since S% has been measured. I find this unlikely.
one thing about the mean in stats in a situation like this is they are pointless, because not every player is the same. if every player played the same, had the same power shot, accuracy, played the same style then it would matter. but the mean in this type of situation means absolutely nothing.

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12-17-2012, 10:01 AM
  #111
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lol yeah i know, then you have this waste of money.

wooow i hadnt seen this before... thats bad...

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12-17-2012, 10:06 AM
  #112
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I don't know what type of shooting% Eberle will be able to sustain in his career, but I will venture a guess that he will have a much higher % than average.

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12-17-2012, 10:34 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
IMO saying that any achievement realized by a pro player is due to luck is being ignorant or just disliking that player... the only thing about ones career that i could attribute to luck is the lack of injuries..
So he's going to shoot almost 20% the majority of years of his career?

A high shooting percentage like that reflects luck until proven otherwise. Eberle had one season at a normal percentage and one season at this high percentage.

Whenever I post on the main boards, I seem to get the response "you're wrong because you're ignorant or you hate player/team X." It's so elementary... like if I don't agree with you, well man, I must just be a blind hater, right? It's like people just aren't capable of intelligent discussion. I especially like it when people say I'm wrong because I'm ignorant, i.e. "you're wrong because you're wrong." Heh.

Anyway... yes, when a higher percentage than normal of players' shots go in one year, it tends to have been a fortunate year. If he goes on and puts up this percentage for a year or two more in a row in the NHL, I'll eat my words. Until then...

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12-17-2012, 10:39 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
So he's going to shoot almost 20% the majority of years of his career?

A high shooting percentage like that reflects luck until proven otherwise. Eberle had one season at a normal percentage and one season at this high percentage.

Whenever I post on the main boards, I seem to get the response "you're wrong because you're ignorant or you hate player/team X." It's so elementary... like if I don't agree with you, well man, I must just be a blind hater, right? It's like people just aren't capable of intelligent discussion. I especially like it when people say I'm wrong because I'm ignorant, i.e. "you're wrong because you're wrong." Heh.

Anyway... yes, when a higher percentage than normal of players' shots go in one year, it tends to have been a fortunate year. If he goes on and puts up this percentage for a year or two more in a row in the NHL, I'll eat my words. Until then...
thats not waht im saying, it could be due to many factors, teammates, good matchups or whatever, but to me it sounds silly to attribute things to luck

by no means did i mean to say that he was going to keep a 20% average

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Old
12-17-2012, 10:44 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
thats not waht im saying, it could be due to many factors, teammates, good matchups or whatever, but to me it sounds silly to attribute things to luck

by no means did i mean to say that he was going to keep a 20% average
Eberle is Edmonton's best offensive player at the moment. I don't think he put up a 30+ goal season because he was facing weak defensive pairings or forward lines from other teams.

His teammates are more or less a constant from his first to second year. They don't explain an 8-9% hike in shooting percentage. A bit of luck, however, certainly does.

I don't see what is so wrong with saying this. When guys are shooting 6 and 7 percent above the league average, they're either an exceptional goal scorer or they had a good - but also lucky - year. I wouldn't label Eberle as the former, as to do so would put him on par with the Stamkoses of the world... so it has to be the second. For me, anyway.

If he shoots a lower percentage on average for the rest of his career(say, significantly lower... 3, 4, 5 percent lower, what have you), then was I not correct? An aberration, a career year (in terms of shooting percentage alone). Luck. Every player gets it sometimes.

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12-17-2012, 11:03 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
Eberle is Edmonton's best offensive player at the moment. I don't think he put up a 30+ goal season because he was facing weak defensive pairings or forward lines from other teams.

His teammates are more or less a constant from his first to second year. They don't explain an 8-9% hike in shooting percentage. A bit of luck, however, certainly does.
.
You can't group all the factors into "Luck", you're also talking about a 1st year player jumping to 2nd year....

within the first 5 years of any players career, huge jumps in improvement are more than likely, so take his rookie season with a grain of salt. Everyone seems downplay his high shooting % by comparing it to his rookie season, obviously some 19 year old isn't likely going to come out shooting at 20%.

There's learning the game, physically and mentally improving, adapting to D-man... Eberle seems like a quick learner on all levels of hockey, no surprise just about every facet of his game tremendously improved in 1 short year. This kid was a ppg+ player in the AHL a year before even playing a single NHL game, no surprise he's dominating it right now.

This is like saying Stamkos scoring 51 in his 2nd season was "luck". I disagree with your logic, but I'll agree that he needs to do it again to disprove the non-believers..

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12-17-2012, 11:24 AM
  #117
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Jordan "Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions" Eberle

Sounds like a fantastic argument

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Old
12-17-2012, 12:11 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle Brodziak View Post
Jordan "Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions" Eberle

Sounds like a fantastic argument
I don't expect Oilers fans to view this rationally, given none of them have so far.

I didn't say he has nothing to do with his own success. I said shooting such a high percentage tends to indicate a player who had a fortunate year.
Apparently he'll be shooting 19% for the rest of his career, though. He's as good a goalscorer as Stamkos.

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12-17-2012, 12:26 PM
  #119
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He is going to go on a tear.

32 points in his last 19 games

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12-17-2012, 12:28 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
You can't group all the factors into "Luck", you're also talking about a 1st year player jumping to 2nd year....

within the first 5 years of any players career, huge jumps in improvement are more than likely, so take his rookie season with a grain of salt. Everyone seems downplay his high shooting % by comparing it to his rookie season, obviously some 19 year old isn't likely going to come out shooting at 20%.

There's learning the game, physically and mentally improving, adapting to D-man... Eberle seems like a quick learner on all levels of hockey, no surprise just about every facet of his game tremendously improved in 1 short year. This kid was a ppg+ player in the AHL a year before even playing a single NHL game, no surprise he's dominating it right now.

This is like saying Stamkos scoring 51 in his 2nd season was "luck". I disagree with your logic, but I'll agree that he needs to do it again to disprove the non-believers..
If you can show me a bunch of players that have jumped from ~10 to ~20 in shooting percentage from their rookie to sophomore seasons, then I'll agree with you. Until then I see little reason to believe that such a high percentage was anything other than an aberration.

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12-17-2012, 12:34 PM
  #121
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No such thing as an outlier?

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12-17-2012, 12:35 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leman Russ View Post
No such thing as an outlier?
Of course there is, that's what I've been calling it all along. An outlier season for Eberle. Lucky. Almost 20% of his shots went in. Eberle isn't Stamkos, nor he is some incredible generational talent. I think it's fair to take my chances on calling it a fortunate season.

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12-17-2012, 12:45 PM
  #123
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Of course there is, that's what I've been calling it all along. An outlier season for Eberle. Lucky. Almost 20% of his shots went in. Eberle isn't Stamkos, nor he is some incredible generational talent. I think it's fair to take my chances on calling it a fortunate season.
Nobody is saying that...
Stamkos can shoot all the time and score each time.
Eberle has to pick his spots more carefully because he ISN'T as talented as Stamkos.
You can't just look at it as "SAME SHOT %!! HE IS AS GOOD AS STAMKOS!! THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE!!"

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12-17-2012, 12:49 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Leman Russ View Post
Nobody is saying that...
Stamkos can shoot all the time and score each time.
Eberle has to pick his spots more carefully because he ISN'T as talented as Stamkos.
You can't just look at it as "SAME SHOT %!! HE IS AS GOOD AS STAMKOS!! THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE!!"
I don't look at it that way. I just don't believe Eberle is the best in the league at "picking his spots carefully," as your post would imply (has to have some trait to put him on top of the league in s%, doesn't he?). He is not a 19% shooter. That's insane.

He had a lucky season where almost a fifth of his shots went in. I'm not saying he's never going to score 30+ goals again, I'm only saying that chances are he won't do that in about 150 shots again.

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12-17-2012, 12:54 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Chris Hansen View Post
I don't expect Oilers fans to view this rationally, given none of them have so far.

I didn't say he has nothing to do with his own success. I said shooting such a high percentage tends to indicate a player who had a fortunate year.
Apparently he'll be shooting 19% for the rest of his career, though. He's as good a goalscorer as Stamkos.
That is the definition of luck. Of course a player having a s% near 20 year in and year out is pretty unheard of, but you can't discredit his success by saying the only reason why his numbers were so good last year is because all the bounces were going his way.

What is your reasoning for his success right now? Is it luck or is it 'nhl allstars should have no problem lighting up the ahl'? I think it is more along the lines of the kid having success no matter where he plays. There's a lot more evidence to back that up then attributing all his success to chance.

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