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What would happen if the NHL adopted the NFL's gate split?

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Old
12-20-2012, 07:01 PM
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haseoke39
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What would happen if the NHL adopted the NFL's gate split?

Question: If the only piece of revenue sharing the NHL did was an NFL-style 60-40 gate revenue split, how would that compare to the revenue sharing agreed to in the current NHL negotiations?

Short answer: If the NHL split all gate revenue 60-40, they would in effect redistribute $94.72M from 16 teams (including all 6 Canadian franchises) to the rest of the league. In the current negotiations, the NHL has agreed to share $200M from 10 teams, while the NHLPA is asking for $250M.

Long answer (including all the math): Calling the NFL's split 60-40 is being a little generous. The NFL actually gives a few % less than 40% to the common pot for all visitors, with the difference going to pay various liabilities for the home team. In addition, the NFL's revenue split does not include luxury boxes. The NFL does a lot more sharing than just their gate receipts, however: a huge TV deal and league licensing is split evenly between all teams (which I can't compare to the NHL here, because nobody publishes good figures to base a comparison off of). On the other hand, the NFL's gate revenue represents a much smaller piece of their pie than the NHL's. The NHL also splits money from their national TV deal, but it's a much smaller deal.

Forbes gives estimates of each team's gate revenues, used in the calculations below.

Average gate receipts per NHL team: $46.2M. Note: because the NFL doesn't actually contribute 40% of gate to the specific visiting team, but to a fund which is split between all teams, I therefore don't need to calculate out the average of the 29 teams besides the one in question. Instead, I'll just use this same figure each time.

Toronto: Gate Revenue $88M
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.60*88) + (.4*46.2): $71.28M
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into or taken from RS): $16.72M

NYR: Gate revenue $95M
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*95) + (.4*46.2): $75.48
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $19.52M

MTL Gate revenue: 83
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*83) + (.4*46.2): $68.28
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $14.72

CHI Gate revenue: 51
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*51) + (.4*46.2): $49.08
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $1.92M

BOS Gate revenue: 53
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*53) + (.4*46.2): $50.28M
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $2.72M

DET Gate revenue: 49
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*49) + (.4*46.2): $47.88
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $1.12M

VAN Gate revenue: 73
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*73) + (.4*46.2): $62.28
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $10.72M

PHI Gate revenue: 60
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*60) + (.4*46.2): $54.48
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $5.52M

PIT Gate revenue: 51
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*51) + (.4*46.2): 49.08
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $1.92M

LAK Gate revenue: 46
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*46) + (.4*46.2): 46.08
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -0.12M

WAS Gate revenue: 54
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*54) + (.4*46.2): $50.88M
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $3.12M

CGY Gate revenue: 61
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*61) + (.4*46.2): $55.08
Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $5.92M

DAL Gate revenue: 26
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*26) + (.4*46.2): $34.08M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -8.08M

EDM Gate revenue: 60
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*60) + (.4*46.2): $54.48M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $5.52M

SJS Gate revenue: 48
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*48) + (.4*46.2): 47.28
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $0.72M

OTT Gate revenue: 50
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*50) + (.4*46.2): $48.48
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $1.52M

MIN Gate revenue: 41
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*41) + (.4*46.2): $43.08
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -2.08M

COL Gate revenue: 30
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*30) + (.4*46.2): 36.48
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -6.48M

NJD Gate revenue: 47
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*47) + (.4*46.2): $46.68M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $0.32M

WPG Gate revenue: 53
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*53) + (.4*46.2): $50.28M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): $2.72M

ANA Gate revenue: 30
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*30) + (.4*46.2): $36.48M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -6.48M

BUF Gate revenue: 34
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*34) + (.4*46.2): $38.88M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -4.88M

TBL Gate revenue: 23
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*23) + (.4*46.2): $32.28M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -9.28M

FLA Gate revenue: 25
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*25) + (.4*46.2): $33.48M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -8.48M

NSH Gate revenue: 29
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*29) + (.4*46.2): $35.88M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -6.88M

CAR Gate revenue: 27
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*27) + (.4*46.2): $34.68M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -7.68M

NYI Gate revenue: 19
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*19) + (.4*46.2): $29.88M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -10.88M

CBJ Gate revenue: 28
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*28) + (.4*46.2): $35.28M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -7.28M

PHX Gate revenue: 22
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*22) + (.4*46.2): $31.68M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -9.68M

STL Gate revenue: 31
If they adopted the NFL's split: (.6*31) + (.4*46.2): $37.08M
Negative Difference (i.e., how much would be paid into RS): -6.08M

Total of all the positive contributions to RS above: $94.72M

Takeaway: NHL gate receipts are the biggest driver of NHL revenue, but "sharing" them in the style of the NFL doesn't actually redistribute that much. Under the NFL gate sharing system, even the poorest teams pay into the pot, and even the richest teams take out of it. You can "share," in the NFL sense, 100% of revenues just by putting them all in a common pot. But if everyone were then to take back out exactly what they put in, you'd have 100% sharing, 0% redistribution. The NHL model is pure redistribution, and, in my opinion, people need to start comparing it to the NFL model with a little more care and precision.


Last edited by haseoke39: 12-20-2012 at 07:08 PM.
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Old
12-20-2012, 07:51 PM
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Thank you for this. Hopefully everyone who is still around will read it

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12-20-2012, 08:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Question: If the only piece of revenue sharing the NHL did was an NFL-style 60-40 gate revenue split, how would that compare to the revenue sharing agreed to in the current NHL negotiations?

Short answer: If the NHL split all gate revenue 60-40, they would in effect redistribute $94.72M from 16 teams (including all 6 Canadian franchises) to the rest of the league. In the current negotiations, the NHL has agreed to share $200M from 10 teams, while the NHLPA is asking for $250M.
....
Long answer (including all the math): Calling the NFL's split 60-40 is being a little generous. The NFL actually gives a few % less than 40% to the common pot for all visitors, with the difference going to pay various liabilities for the home team. In addition, the NFL's revenue split does not include luxury boxes. The NFL does a lot more sharing than just their gate receipts, however: a huge TV deal and league licensing is split evenly between all teams (which I can't compare to the NHL here, because nobody publishes good figures to base a comparison off of). On the other hand, the NFL's gate revenue represents a much smaller piece of their pie than the NHL's. The NHL also splits money from their national TV deal, but it's a much smaller deal.
I don't think this is the complete answer.

You've identified the gate portion that would be moved, but neglect to sum up the other amounts that are shared by the NFL. For example, the NFL does not have local TV contracts, so neglecting that in this exercise isn't painting a very complete picture at all seeing that it's the same big teams that have the majority of the local TV money, in addition to getting their share of the national money ($13 MM from this year forward, iirc).

Furthermore, the NHL funds that revenue transfer in a couple of ways. There's the playoff receipts and the national TV money that funds a portion of the revenue transfer program.

I'll take a stab at the local TV dollars, at least to get a ballpark idea:

Toronto - $41 MM (per Yotes bk trial disclosure)
Montreal - $18 MM
Detroit - $25-30 MM
NYR - $30 MM
Philly - $25 MM
Isles - $20 MM (number has been floating around for a while)
NJD - $20-30 MM
Chicago - should be comparable to Detroit, but let's be conservative and say $15-20 MM
Minnesota - $10 MM?
Tampa - $9 MM
Columbus - $2 MM (per Doug McLean from a few yrs back)
Yotes - $4-5 MM, not sure if that's still the case
Vancouver??? - $20 MM
Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Wpg - $10 MM each?
Pittsburgh - $10-15 MM
Boston - $15-20 MM

No idea: STL, FL, Car, Nash, Wash, Buff, SJ, LA, Ana, Dal, Col = say $2-7 MM range, so $30-35 MM for the group?


Maybe close to $400 MM total?

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12-20-2012, 08:32 PM
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haseoke39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I don't think this is the complete answer.

You've identified the gate portion that would be moved, but neglect to sum up the other amounts that are shared by the NFL. For example, the NFL does not have local TV contracts, so neglecting that in this exercise isn't painting a very complete picture at all seeing that it's the same big teams that have the majority of the local TV money, in addition to getting their share of the national money ($13 MM from this year forward, iirc).

Furthermore, the NHL funds that revenue transfer in a couple of ways. There's the playoff receipts and the national TV money that funds a portion of the revenue transfer program.

I'll take a stab at the local TV dollars, at least to get a ballpark idea:

Toronto - $41 MM (per Yotes bk trial disclosure)
Montreal - $18 MM
Detroit - $25-30 MM
NYR - $30 MM
Philly - $25 MM
Isles - $20 MM (number has been floating around for a while)
NJD - $20-30 MM
Chicago - should be comparable to Detroit, but let's be conservative and say $15-20 MM
Minnesota - $10 MM?
Tampa - $9 MM
Columbus - $2 MM (per Doug McLean from a few yrs back)
Yotes - $4-5 MM, not sure if that's still the case
Vancouver??? - $20 MM
Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Wpg - $10 MM each?
Pittsburgh - $10-15 MM
Boston - $15-20 MM

No idea: STL, FL, Car, Nash, Wash, Buff, SJ, LA, Ana, Dal, Col = say $2-7 MM range, so $30-35 MM for the group?


Maybe close to $400 MM total?
I acknowledged that I couldn't figure out the TV side of things for lack of sources and stated the only question I was trying to answer was regarding the gate split. Do you have any source on these figures?

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12-20-2012, 08:33 PM
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You could also argue what if the NHL received the TV money the NFL did ......

The issue is that because of that huge TV deal, revenue sharing is workable. Tell Toronto to split its revenue IF their national TV deal paid 100% of the payroll, and yes they would go for it.

The two go hand in hand. Dallas finds writing a huge check palatable simply because they get more back in TV money.

Also, the revenue difference between teams in the NFL is relatively small compared to the NHL, so it works. Not so in the NHL. To make it much the same, you'd have to drop the lower 15 revenue based teams.


So its nice to think it would work, but it is just not the same. I believe they need to share more revenue, but its not the complete answer.

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12-20-2012, 08:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
I acknowledged that I couldn't figure out the TV side of things for lack of sources and stated the only question I was trying to answer was regarding the gate split. Do you have any source on these figures?

Some of those figures have been published. (See business board data thread.)

Unfortunately, for many of the smaller market teams, we don't have any info. My guesstimates are based off what is known, and then trying to put teams based on their relative strength in terms of revenues in between the known data points. It's okay for the thought experiment if nothing less.

Also, I still think you're not accounting all the money that goes into the RS program. It's not just money from the ten teams, but playoff gate 'tax' and some of the media money.

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12-20-2012, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
Also, the revenue difference between teams in the NFL is relatively small compared to the NHL...
Not really, not anymore. Teams have "team-specific" merchandising revenue that they keep 100% (thank you Dallas Cowboys). Luxury box revenue is *huge*. As but one example, the Redskins generate more in luxury box revenue than nearly one third the league generates in total gate receipts.

Etc etc etc.

The revenue differential in the NFL is now meaningfully greater than 2x. That is right in line with the same measure in the NHL.

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12-20-2012, 08:50 PM
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Any NHL team that couldn't survive with with a big gate split and local tv split...and only paying out 50-55 % of the revenues....

Doesn't deserve to survive

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12-20-2012, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I don't think this is the complete answer.

You've identified the gate portion that would be moved, but neglect to sum up the other amounts that are shared by the NFL. For example, the NFL does not have local TV contracts, so neglecting that in this exercise isn't painting a very complete picture at all seeing that it's the same big teams that have the majority of the local TV money, in addition to getting their share of the national money ($13 MM from this year forward, iirc).

Furthermore, the NHL funds that revenue transfer in a couple of ways. There's the playoff receipts and the national TV money that funds a portion of the revenue transfer program.

I'll take a stab at the local TV dollars, at least to get a ballpark idea:

Toronto - $41 MM (per Yotes bk trial disclosure)
Montreal - $18 MM
Detroit - $25-30 MM
NYR - $30 MM
Philly - $25 MM
Isles - $20 MM (number has been floating around for a while)
NJD - $20-30 MM
Chicago - should be comparable to Detroit, but let's be conservative and say $15-20 MM
Minnesota - $10 MM?
Tampa - $9 MM
Columbus - $2 MM (per Doug McLean from a few yrs back)
Yotes - $4-5 MM, not sure if that's still the case
Vancouver??? - $20 MM
Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Wpg - $10 MM each?
Pittsburgh - $10-15 MM
Boston - $15-20 MM

No idea: STL, FL, Car, Nash, Wash, Buff, SJ, LA, Ana, Dal, Col = say $2-7 MM range, so $30-35 MM for the group?


Maybe close to $400 MM total?
I am pretty sure that Buffalo is near the Pitt range on TV. Their ratings percent is right there with Detroit. It's huge, but it is a tiny TV market. IIRC, Colorado might be up there as well, but I think the rest of your unknown group is in the range you suggest.

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12-21-2012, 06:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
The revenue differential in the NFL is now meaningfully greater than 2x. That is right in line with the same measure in the NHL.
2X? Not in the NHL. 3X is the differential.

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12-21-2012, 06:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Any NHL team that couldn't survive with with a big gate split and local tv split...and only paying out 50-55 % of the revenues....

Doesn't deserve to survive
The other thing too though is the players are asking for a split in revenues that would probably be over 60%, and may not get below that for a few years.

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12-21-2012, 07:42 AM
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Split all the playoff money equally among the 30 teams.

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12-21-2012, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
Split all the playoff money equally among the 30 teams.
I see you have a Leafs avatar, how can you say that with a straight face .....

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12-21-2012, 08:06 AM
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I see you have a Leafs avatar, how can you say that with a straight face .....
Just as straight as the fans that want money from a team that hasn't made a dime from the playoffs in 7 years. Afterall isn't that where all the real money is, soldout arenas at higher than normal ticket prices?

Perhaps the teams that are winning in the playoffs are the problem. A team that cannot sellout at even average ticket prices, a team that makes very little in local broadcast money, goes deep in the playoffs. A lost opportunity for the league as a whole to split up some major cash.


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12-21-2012, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
2X? Not in the NHL. 3X is the differential.
The NFL is > 2x. The NHL < 3x. Close enough to being the same.

And note that the NFL number is after all kinds of revenue sharing that the NHL does not do.

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12-21-2012, 05:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Any NHL team that couldn't survive with with a big gate split and local tv split...and only paying out 50-55 % of the revenues....

Doesn't deserve to survive
Nobody should expect an NHL to somehow have a life if it couldn't keep its head above water in that scenario. But that isn't the current scenario.

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12-22-2012, 11:51 AM
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I wish people would stop comparing the NHL to the NFL. It just shows how NHL fans either underrate the NFL or overrate the NHL.

Either way the two leagues are not comparable, and most likely never will be.

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12-22-2012, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
Just as straight as the fans that want money from a team that hasn't made a dime from the playoffs in 7 years. Afterall isn't that where all the real money is, soldout arenas at higher than normal ticket prices?

Perhaps the teams that are winning in the playoffs are the problem. A team that cannot sellout at even average ticket prices, a team that makes very little in local broadcast money, goes deep in the playoffs. A lost opportunity for the league as a whole to split up some major cash.

This is the MLB's approach, maximize revenue on a total basis.

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12-22-2012, 01:27 PM
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Looking at the figures I think a major problem with the NHL is the canadian/american dollar exchange rate changes. A few years ago the american dollar was higher and candian teams were in trouble now american teams are on the bottom. Perhaps the solution is just to break the league in two. Canadian teams in one American teams in another.

I mean even cities like Edmonton and Calgary have more gate revenue than the Capitals. DC is a pretty rich area and they sell out every game at ridiculous prices and I would guess Chicago is in a similar position. So how do smaller cities like Edmonton and Calgary get so much ticket revenue. It has to be the exchange rate.

There is no guarantee that it won't flip around

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12-22-2012, 02:10 PM
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I think revenue sharing should be increased, but within reason.

Don't have an MLB situation where teams dump tens of millions into teams that sit at the bottom and make no attempt to improve.

I also have a huge moral problem with having to stretch my entertainment money to afford $100 Jets tickets, just for the benefit of $10 night in Phoenix.

Revenue sharing should be capped at say, $25 million per team. If you can't survive with something gifting you $25 million a year, then frankly I don't know what to do with you outside of moving.

Also morally disagree with Canadian fans subsidizing foreign markets.

My team got moved and NO TEAM came to help. No revenue sharing. No salary cap. No massive TV contract. When the going got tough the world told us to **** off and that was that.

Now we have teams that are receiving tens of millions a year in money out of market, plus the benefit of a salary cap, plus the benefit of a massive TV contract. And everyone in the league is rushing to their defense.

The Jets moved with $0 of outside help. The Coyotes make more in revenue sharing than they do in ticket revenue. And we are expected to bail them out so Phoenix area fans can continue to enjoy their cheap tickets.

Edit: Also think teams should have to meet a minimum gate revenue ($20,$25 million?) to be eligible for revenue sharing.

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12-22-2012, 02:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
I think revenue sharing should be increased, but within reason.

Don't have an MLB situation where teams dump tens of millions into teams that sit at the bottom and make no attempt to improve.

I also have a huge moral problem with having to stretch my entertainment money to afford $100 Jets tickets, just for the benefit of $10 night in Phoenix.

Revenue sharing should be capped at say, $25 million per team. If you can't survive with something gifting you $25 million a year, then frankly I don't know what to do with you outside of moving.

Also morally disagree with Canadian fans subsidizing foreign markets.

My team got moved and NO TEAM came to help. No revenue sharing. No salary cap. No massive TV contract. When the going got tough the world told us to **** off and that was that.

Now we have teams that are receiving tens of millions a year in money out of market, plus the benefit of a salary cap, plus the benefit of a massive TV contract. And everyone in the league is rushing to their defense.

The Jets moved with $0 of outside help. The Coyotes make more in revenue sharing than they do in ticket revenue. And we are expected to bail them out so Phoenix area fans can continue to enjoy their cheap tickets.

Edit: Also think teams should have to meet a minimum gate revenue ($20,$25 million?) to be eligible for revenue sharing.
You'd be giving them a big raise, I think the most any team got was around 15 million.
As for the 100 dollar Jets ticket. Pretty sure the Jets wouldn't drop the ticket prices if they didn't pay into rev sharing. They will charge as much as the fans are willing to pay.

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12-23-2012, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
I think revenue sharing should be increased, but within reason.

Don't have an MLB situation where teams dump tens of millions into teams that sit at the bottom and make no attempt to improve.

I also have a huge moral problem with having to stretch my entertainment money to afford $100 Jets tickets, just for the benefit of $10 night in Phoenix.

Revenue sharing should be capped at say, $25 million per team. If you can't survive with something gifting you $25 million a year, then frankly I don't know what to do with you outside of moving.

Also morally disagree with Canadian fans subsidizing foreign markets.

My team got moved and NO TEAM came to help. No revenue sharing. No salary cap. No massive TV contract. When the going got tough the world told us to **** off and that was that.

Now we have teams that are receiving tens of millions a year in money out of market, plus the benefit of a salary cap, plus the benefit of a massive TV contract. And everyone in the league is rushing to their defense.

The Jets moved with $0 of outside help. The Coyotes make more in revenue sharing than they do in ticket revenue. And we are expected to bail them out so Phoenix area fans can continue to enjoy their cheap tickets.

Edit: Also think teams should have to meet a minimum gate revenue ($20,$25 million?) to be eligible for revenue sharing.
When the canadian dollar was down where you against american teams subsidizing canadian teams? why should there a be a minimum gate revenue? Different cities have different economies.

also if you have a problem with 100 dollar tickets to see the jets don't pay it. that is a ridiculous amount of money to pay for one game. I would never pay that much. median income in phoenix is much less than winnipeg. How would you expect hockey fans to pay as much for a ticket in phoenix as they do in winnipeg. Also they had a big housing crisis there.

canadian hockey fans seem to be the most selfish people. I am just basing that on what I read here. But when canada was doing badly and losing teams I felt bad for them. I have been to nova scotia, new brunswick, montreal, quebec city and enjoyed them all but the people on here that are from canada are not good ambassadors for their country at all. I am sure if I were from phoenix or columbus I would really never want to visit canada after reading this forum and the views expressed on here.

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12-23-2012, 05:13 PM
  #23
metalfoot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atomic View Post
When the canadian dollar was down where you against american teams subsidizing canadian teams?
The relative amount of subsidization was peanuts then compared to what we're seeing now, but the overall sentiment is correct; what's good for the goose is good for the gander, as the old saying goes.

But the great bitterness you perceive in Canada comes from both Winnipeg and Quebec City being whisked away with hardly any resistance at the upper echelons. It would be kind of like some of the heartland-of-NFL or MLB teams suddenly being relocated to Canada at the drop of a hat for emotional impact to the Canadian cities.

And yes, the Canadian teams really do charge more, generally speaking, than the US teams for tickets. They can. The NHL holds the place in the Canadian psyche that the NFL does in the states. It's the #1 and #2 is way down the list. (Here in this part of the prairies, it's pretty much a toss-up between CFL and pro curling for #2.)

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12-26-2012, 04:10 PM
  #24
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Looking at these numbers again I came up with the perfect solution to the leagues problem. The Rangers, Canadians, and Maple Leafs have more money than everyone else and it causes problems with cap maximums and cap minimums. Here is a simple solution to the problem. Each of the cities gets a second team. The Islanders are moving to NYC so that should help with them. Now we just need new teams in Montreal and Toronto.

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