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F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-01-2013, 08:31 AM
  #351
Baemon Severson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
And again, why was he out in key defensive situations that Gaborik, Richards, Callahan, Fedotenko, Boyle, Dubinsky and Anisimov weren't in?

Another stat monger who simply just doesn't watch the game and get the point.

It's a shame because you have no excuse, being exposed to Rangers games in that MSG NY Metro Market.

Instead, you continue to post like you know, when you don't, despite having the access to possibly know.
I actually live in the Philly market and go to school in Rhode Island, but that's besides the point. Center Ice is a great thing my friend.

Anyway, you're right, I cant prove that Kreider wasn't used in key defensive situations. But I do believe that common sense should prevail here for several reasons:

1) Kreider got significantly less ice time than those guys. There is a reason for that
2) Torts would bench him for long stretches of time.
3) He played against weaker competition
4) He started well over 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone. This means that the coach didnt trust him in these key situations

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Old
01-01-2013, 09:26 AM
  #352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
Even if you were judging him on his college career, which you're not, you're still leaving out a point per game junior season being the leading scorer on a national champion.
How am I leaving any of his college career out? I specifically said his 114 game college career. Thats EVERY game he played in college, including his junior year. What the hell are you talking about?

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No it IS that way because you use a stat to make one point when there are other stats there that DISPROVE your point at a higher level at you ignore them.

This isn't hard to see.
Do you even know what the word subjective means? What stats disprove my points?

Quote:
20-25 goal pace as a rookie, did it in the playoffs none the less. 3 of his 5 goals came against Jersey in a 6 game series. I'll take the production at the highest level he's ever played at in his career over your word and an ok college career.
And do you know how sample sizes work? He played 18 games in the playoffs. He shot a very likely unsustainable 17%. He was given incredibly favorable zone starts and soft minutes. And including all that, he produced at the rate of a third line forward.

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His college production is more important than how he performed in the NHL. I guess the same can be said for others than too. Amazing argument, excellent logic.
Yet again, sample size. Yet again, its not like he produced amazingly in the playoffs. he produced at a 3rd line pace.

Quote:
And that's why he's enjoyed his greatest success so far at the NHL level.

Not saying he's the exception to the rule, but you look ridiculous right now saying something like that.
"Greatest success", producing at a 3rd line forward pace. Good to know.

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Oh, it doesn't for him, but does for you? Because that's all you've done so far. I've seen no reasoning as to why college numbers should be more impotant than NHL numbers.
Its a really simple thing called sample size. Im basing my argument on valuing a 114 game sample size over an 18 game sample size.

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We're not judging his college or AHL career, we're judging the ability he has at the NHL level and the potential to grow on that. You don't judge that through previous college play or AHL play after he came up and had success after jumping past the AHL to go into the NHL playoffs.
So because he produced at a 3rd line pace over a small sample size in the NHL playoffs, that means hes going to be a 1st or 2nd line scorer now? And that means you can completely ignore his lack of production over a much larger sample size prior to that?

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You can say all you want about his college career, but at the end of the day, you still discount the fact that he did something that Reilly Smith, Jaden Schwartz and all of these others weren't doing... being a major contributor to their team deep into the playoffs.
So now you bring in the team argument. Which has nothing to do with Kreiders history of lack of production.

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No YOU are the personification of HF hypocrisy. You'll be the first to hype your own team's prospect up as if he's the next one, but you'll turn around and say that another team's fans shouldn't be doing that and their player is crap, but when the rules are applied to his own team's player, well those rules suck and are false.
Where in this thread have I mentioned any of my teams prospects? Please show me.

Quote:
You talk about others regurgitating the same BS arguments, that's ALL THAT YOU'VE DONE in this thread. Pot, meet kettle.
See the difference is, my arguments are based on facts, numbers, history, and the relationship between them. Your argument(and GWOW's) are based on wishful thinking. I think we all know which is far more likely to be the BS argument between the two.

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01-01-2013, 09:47 AM
  #353
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He's big, fast and has a good shot.. he's the prototypical NHL player

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01-01-2013, 01:44 PM
  #354
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SMantzas View Post
2) Torts would bench him for long stretches of time.
3) He played against weaker competition
This is exactly why you don't know what you're talking about.

When was he benched? Not only that, but he scored 3 of his 5 goals against the Devils in the ECF.

I guess a pretty weak team made the Stanley Cup finals then.

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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
How am I leaving any of his college career out? I specifically said his 114 game college career. Thats EVERY game he played in college, including his junior year. What the hell are you talking about?
First off, his college numbers are mediocre, but you leave out his point per game junior season and shove it aside. All I see you doing is conglomerating 114 games like you've actually watched a single one (you definitely haven't) and looking at a point per game average while ignoring his last year in college completely and ignoring the fact that he jumped from winning the NCAA championship into the NHL playoffs.

If you can't see this, then I see no further point in arguing with you.


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Do you even know what the word subjective means? What stats disprove my points?
Yeah, your arguments. You're not objective at all. Stats can be used to twist in someone's favor, it happens on here all the time. Are you really that naive?

Quote:
And do you know how sample sizes work? He played 18 games in the playoffs. He shot a very likely unsustainable 17%. He was given incredibly favorable zone starts and soft minutes. And including all that, he produced at the rate of a third line forward.
So it's not likely that Kreider could ever score 20-25 goals? LMFAO wow, this is excellent stuff here man.

Yet again, sample size. Yet again, its not like he produced amazingly in the playoffs. he produced at a 3rd line pace.

Quote:
"Greatest success", producing at a 3rd line forward pace. Good to know.
Scoring 5 goals in 18 games jumping from the NCAA national championship to the NHL playoffs and 3 of his 5 goals in the ECF against the Devils. Let's just ignore those facts, they don't count because the almighty Chaos said so.

Quote:
Its a really simple thing called sample size. Im basing my argument on valuing a 114 game sample size over an 18 game sample size.
Yeah, that would be nice if you actually acknowledged his junior year and what he did in it, but there's not one mentioning of him doing that. Yet, Reilly Smith is a god for jumping past the AHL to come into the NHL.

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So because he produced at a 3rd line pace over a small sample size in the NHL playoffs, that means hes going to be a 1st or 2nd line scorer now? And that means you can completely ignore his lack of production over a much larger sample size prior to that?
I never said he'll be a 1st line scorer. Do I think it's possible? Absolutely, with his skill set, size and speed. I think a more realistic figure is a 25-30 goal guy who scores about maybe 50-60 points. His playmaking skills are actually pretty underrated, but he is more of a shoot first player.

Because if you watched Kreider at BC or know BC hockey (which you don't) you'd know that Jerry York plays his seniors moreso than this underclassmen. Their first line last year was Barry Almeida, Stephen Whitney and Pat Mullane and Almeida is gone. Whitney and Mullane are seniors this year.

Kevin Hayes, a 1st round pick (24th overall in 2010) is going through the same thing Kreider went through at BC. You simply don't get the ice time in your freshman and sophomore years to produce. Johnny Gaudreau is the exception to the rule.

Quote:
So now you bring in the team argument. Which has nothing to do with Kreiders history of lack of production.
Again, when you're getting 3rd line minutes with a goon and a nobody who belongs in the ECHL, that will happen. Teams will key in on you, knowing that you're the guy that does the damage on the line. You've clearly never even played hockey before if you can't see this.

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Where in this thread have I mentioned any of my teams prospects? Please show me.
Did I say you did it in this thread? What I said is that you're the type to do it.

Quote:
See the difference is, my arguments are based on facts, numbers, history, and the relationship between them. Your argument(and GWOW's) are based on wishful thinking. I think we all know which is far more likely to be the BS argument between the two.
No, your arguments are based on SOME and NOT ALL numbers. There is no "History" to base things on when you're conveniently leaving out the parts that don't fit argument to the way you want to it.

Your argument would make a lot more sense if Kreider had spent time in the AHL, came up for a bit in the NHL and got sent back down. This is a kid that hurdled the AHL, went straight to the NHL and scored as many goals as almost anyone on the Rangers in the playoffs without playing a single regular season NHL game.

Oh and he lead the Rangers in goals in the Devils series. You can ignore that fact too if you want, since it doesn't fit your argument.

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Old
01-01-2013, 06:19 PM
  #355
Baemon Severson
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Lol weak competition means the lines he was matched against, not the overall team. Kreider started 70.4 percent of shifts in the offensive zone. Torts wasn't fond of his defensive game

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01-01-2013, 06:36 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by SMantzas View Post
Lol weak competition means the lines he was matched against, not the overall team. Kreider started 70.4 percent of shifts in the offensive zone. Torts wasn't fond of his defensive game
This has been brought up already and ignored by the "but he is a top prospect guy" crowd.

He clearly had a variance of luck scoring those 5 goals, wasn't trusted by torts, despite a great physical package for the playoffs and is having a really lousy season in the AHL, line mates be dammed.

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01-01-2013, 06:38 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
Because if you watched Kreider at BC or know BC hockey (which you don't) you'd know that Jerry York plays his seniors moreso than this underclassmen. Their first line last year was Barry Almeida, Stephen Whitney and Pat Mullane and Almeida is gone. Whitney and Mullane are seniors this year.

Kevin Hayes, a 1st round pick (24th overall in 2010) is going through the same thing Kreider went through at BC. You simply don't get the ice time in your freshman and sophomore years to produce. Johnny Gaudreau is the exception to the rule.
So when Cam Atkinson was a sophomore and got good ice time (and produced 30 goals when no one else had more than 17), was that because of a shortage of upperclassmen or because his play on the ice dictated it?

Quote:
Scoring 5 goals in 18 games jumping from the NCAA national championship to the NHL playoffs and 3 of his 5 goals in the ECF against the Devils. Let's just ignore those facts, they don't count because the almighty Chaos said so.
Also, I like the fact that I referenced this a couple pages back, yet you chose to ignore it.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=431

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01-01-2013, 06:45 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
This has been brought up already and ignored by the "but he is a top prospect guy" crowd.

He clearly had a variance of luck scoring those 5 goals, wasn't trusted by torts, despite a great physical package for the playoffs and is having a really lousy season in the AHL, line mates be dammed.
That's not too surprising being a rookie, a player who doesn't have a strong defensive game and who's best attributes are his offensive skills.

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01-01-2013, 09:20 PM
  #359
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I keep hearing this "5 goals in 18 games" thing, but check out these two goals and tell me the goaltenders shouldn't have had them




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01-01-2013, 09:25 PM
  #360
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That seems a bit of a stretch to start discrediting players scoring abilities based on how many goals should have been stopped. Have you analyzed all of Kreider's shots in the NCAA and AHL and analyzed how many of them should and shouldn't have scored?

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01-01-2013, 09:31 PM
  #361
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Yeah I'm not sure about that. The first one maybe, but he's still shooting from a pretty good scoring area. There's no way the goalie should be expected to stop the 2nd one.

But, I hope you are ready for CM Lundqvist to come storming in here, putting words in your mouth and contradicting himself in the same sentence.

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01-01-2013, 09:31 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Callys Chicken Parm View Post
And there's a reason why they are the only two you can think of. It doesn't happen often because most players are not worthy of the task. Tony Amonte is another one. He was pretty good, right?

He, along with Hagelin, is one of the fastest players in the league, and he's 6'3 230 lbs. He also has a wicked shot and is very physical. The only thing he is lacking in is hockey sense. He's not always making smart plays, but that can be taught. He has every tool that a hockey player could dream of having.
You said it right there. He has all the tools but lacks hockey sense.

BUT, actually hockey sense can't be taught. You usually have it or you don't. How many times do you see dumb players become smart?

Hockey sense is probably the most important part of a good hockey prospect. Because of that, in my mind, Kreider will never be an elite prospect.

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01-01-2013, 10:13 PM
  #363
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The Rangers fans in this thread defending Kreider sound absolutely ridiculous. Juxtaposer, Chaos and others laid down all the facts very straightforward. I think any unbiased fan from another team can see this.

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01-01-2013, 11:11 PM
  #364
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Originally Posted by SMantzas View Post
Lol weak competition means the lines he was matched against, not the overall team. Kreider started 70.4 percent of shifts in the offensive zone. Torts wasn't fond of his defensive game
Or maybe Torts was simply playing the hot hand. He was the Rangers' best forward in the ECF. I just don't understand why people automatically think that favorable zone starts means that the player is a defensive liability.

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01-01-2013, 11:55 PM
  #365
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Sorry, reading these posts are boring as hell. Its getting a little personal. Can I get a summary? Some posts seem to imply that he will never be more than he was last year. Should he not be a 1/2nd line power forward? If he reachs his best he scores 30 goals 60 points? Most likely 20 goals 50 points and play physical?

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01-02-2013, 12:00 AM
  #366
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Originally Posted by 3rdlineglory View Post
Or maybe Torts was simply playing the hot hand. He was the Rangers' best forward in the ECF. I just don't understand why people automatically think that favorable zone starts means that the player is a defensive liability.
Seems like a typical strategy for a rookie. Give him some confidence. Its not like Torts had much of a chance to coach him into the Ranger system.

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01-02-2013, 12:16 AM
  #367
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Seems like a typical strategy for a rookie. Give him some confidence. Its not like Torts had much of a chance to coach him into the Ranger system.
I think it's because he already had confidence and Torts was utilizing it considering that the other forwards already had injuries and fatigue. As for your other post, it's all about the type of player he is. When it comes to what he can become in the future, it all depends on him finding out his role and not play like something he's not. I can see him being very useful on the forecheck and on the transition. I don't see his upside as another Viktor Stalberg or Mason Raymond. That's most likely his "downside" if he doesn't reach his potential.

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01-02-2013, 12:18 AM
  #368
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That's not too surprising being a rookie, a player who doesn't have a strong defensive game and who's best attributes are his offensive skills.
No it's not I agree but his play in the playoffs last year is being trumped over what he is, actually isn't doing in the AHL this year.

Sure scouting isn't all about stats it's more about the process but Kredier isn't some slight 18 year old from Sweden either, his production over a rather large sample of 30 games is somewhat disturbing for an elite top 10 prospect as too many had him pegged at.

Heck even as a 30-50 prospect his performance has been nothing short of disappointing so far in his entire professional career of 30 AHL games and 18 limited action NHL playoff games.

That's the entire point here.

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01-02-2013, 12:34 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by SMantzas View Post
Lol weak competition means the lines he was matched against, not the overall team. Kreider started 70.4 percent of shifts in the offensive zone. Torts wasn't fond of his defensive game
LMFAO, trying to use sabremetrics in hockey.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[QUOTE=Mayor Bee;56993455]So when Cam Atkinson was a sophomore and got good ice time (and produced 30 goals when no one else had more than 17), was that because of a shortage of upperclassmen or because his play on the ice dictated it?

Atkinson played with Whitney and Gibbons for most of his collegiate career because they had AMAZING chemistry together. Who else that was on the team at that time was going to give him competition for that spot? Ben Smith? Yeah, because he was in the same stratosphere talentwise... Jimmy Hayes wasn't as developed yet, otherwise he was the only guy that would have. Notice how both Hayes brothers stats have had similar spikes to the one that Kreider had at BC. Now, notice how all 3 players are power forwards.

Quote:
Also, I like the fact that I referenced this a couple pages back, yet you chose to ignore it.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=431
If you read the corresponding post in which I responded to the other parts, I told you that I ignored that and the 2nd part to that post where you said "Kreider looked good, let's see if he sustains it" due to the fact that they were general statements.

You brought up a fact that had been brought up during the cup finals when Dwight King scored his 5th against the Devils.

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Originally Posted by 3rdlineglory View Post
Or maybe Torts was simply playing the hot hand. He was the Rangers' best forward in the ECF. I just don't understand why people automatically think that favorable zone starts means that the player is a defensive liability.
Thank you.

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01-02-2013, 12:42 AM
  #370
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I don't see a lot to worry about with this guy yet. He's doing what many College prospects do. Play 3 years in College do a year in the AHL to learn the pro game. I think the offense will come. This is a perfect chance to work on other aspects of the pro game he is not as comfortable with. 30 games is a pretty small sample size to look at.

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01-02-2013, 01:34 AM
  #371
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
No it's not I agree but his play in the playoffs last year is being trumped over what he is, actually isn't doing in the AHL this year.

Sure scouting isn't all about stats it's more about the process but Kredier isn't some slight 18 year old from Sweden either, his production over a rather large sample of 30 games is somewhat disturbing for an elite top 10 prospect as too many had him pegged at.

Heck even as a 30-50 prospect his performance has been nothing short of disappointing so far in his entire professional career of 30 AHL games and 18 limited action NHL playoff games.

That's the entire point here.
I wouldn't blow either sample size out of proportion but it's a bit ironic that both the playoff sample and the AHL sample work out to about 30 points over an 82 game schedule. Ryan Kesler struggled his first go around in the AHL. He had 11 points in 33 games. He rebounded the next season to dominate of course and Kreider can't play like this forever and keep the good vibes. David Backes similarly had a mediocre start in the AHL. After 10 points in 10 games in his first taste the next year he came back and had 13 points in 31 games in the AHL before being called up to the NHL. He then posted point totals of 23, 31, 54 in the NHL. It's certainly not a good thing that he's been only average in the AHL, but it also doesn't mean he is a complete bust.

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01-02-2013, 01:41 AM
  #372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
First off, his college numbers are mediocre, but you leave out his point per game junior season and shove it aside. All I see you doing is conglomerating 114 games like you've actually watched a single one (you definitely haven't) and looking at a point per game average while ignoring his last year in college completely and ignoring the fact that he jumped from winning the NCAA championship into the NHL playoffs.

If you can't see this, then I see no further point in arguing with you.
You are literally completely contradicting yourself within the same point. You cant say I'm "conglomerating 114 games" and then within 3 lines say "ignoring his last year in college completely." You simply cannot have it both ways.

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Yeah, your arguments. You're not objective at all. Stats can be used to twist in someone's favor, it happens on here all the time. Are you really that naive?
Please show me, how am I twisting the stats?

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So it's not likely that Kreider could ever score 20-25 goals? LMFAO wow, this is excellent stuff here man.
Again, where did I say this? In fact, I said I believe his upside is something around Viktor Stalberg from last season. You know, where he scored 22 goals.

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Scoring 5 goals in 18 games jumping from the NCAA national championship to the NHL playoffs and 3 of his 5 goals in the ECF against the Devils. Let's just ignore those facts, they don't count because the almighty Chaos said so.
Where am I ignoring any of this? His 5 goals are part of the 3rd line pace he produced at. Which is exactly what I said. What in the hell are you talking about?

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Yeah, that would be nice if you actually acknowledged his junior year and what he did in it, but there's not one mentioning of him doing that. Yet, Reilly Smith is a god for jumping past the AHL to come into the NHL.
I do believe I said he had a good junior year. you obviously chose to ignore that. And I havent mentioned the name Reilly Smith once in this thread. yet again there you go with the strawman argument.

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I never said he'll be a 1st line scorer. Do I think it's possible? Absolutely, with his skill set, size and speed. I think a more realistic figure is a 25-30 goal guy who scores about maybe 50-60 points. His playmaking skills are actually pretty underrated, but he is more of a shoot first player.
So your whole defending Kreider tooth and nail is over a difference of roughly 10 points in what we think he will produce.

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Again, when you're getting 3rd line minutes with a goon and a nobody who belongs in the ECHL, that will happen. Teams will key in on you, knowing that you're the guy that does the damage on the line. You've clearly never even played hockey before if you can't see this.
More excuses. Mr more likely is he simply isnt good enough, as his entire college career showed. Whether or not I have ever played hockey has absolutely no relevance in this discussion. Its the argument of someone who is desperate to come up with something.

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Did I say you did it in this thread? What I said is that you're the type to do it.
And you know this how?

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No, your arguments are based on SOME and NOT ALL numbers. There is no "History" to base things on when you're conveniently leaving out the parts that don't fit argument to the way you want to it.
Yet again, what am I leaving out?

Quote:
Oh and he lead the Rangers in goals in the Devils series. You can ignore that fact too if you want, since it doesn't fit your argument.
So now you focus on an even smaller sample size.


Answer me this. If Kreider had been drafted by any other team than the rangers, would you be defending him like this? Hell, whould you even be in this thread?

I think we all know the answer to those last two questions.

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01-02-2013, 02:03 AM
  #373
Hardyvan123
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Originally Posted by Xokkeu View Post
I wouldn't blow either sample size out of proportion but it's a bit ironic that both the playoff sample and the AHL sample work out to about 30 points over an 82 game schedule. Ryan Kesler struggled his first go around in the AHL. He had 11 points in 33 games. He rebounded the next season to dominate of course and Kreider can't play like this forever and keep the good vibes. David Backes similarly had a mediocre start in the AHL. After 10 points in 10 games in his first taste the next year he came back and had 13 points in 31 games in the AHL before being called up to the NHL. He then posted point totals of 23, 31, 54 in the NHL. It's certainly not a good thing that he's been only average in the AHL, but it also doesn't mean he is a complete bust.
I don't think he's a complete bust as the skill set and process is more important than the results but the top 10 prospect status some put on him wasn't deserving either IMO.

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01-02-2013, 02:15 AM
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Jason MacIsaac
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Lets look at facts. Kreider averaged 1.6 shots per game in the playoffs with favorable offensive minutes. His 17.2 sh% made his point total look respectable. Realistically he he is a 3 goal 2 assist player in those 18 games.

In his latest college season he had 3.15 s/g, a respectable number but certainly not what you expect from a speedster who is suppose to be a goal scorer. It is slightly higher than another future 3rd line type player in Blake Pietila.

In the AHL he is getting outshot by many future playmaking 2nd/3rd line centers, his s/g is just under 2 s/g. He has been a terrible disappointment this season.

Judging by his numbers to date it seems be may peak around 160 shots and on the odd good season he reaches 20 goals + goals.

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01-02-2013, 05:46 AM
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It seems lots of the stat mongers are valuating Kreider here on stats alone. The facts are that there are very few players in the history of the NHL who have the size and speed that Kreider has. This is what makes him a very polarizing prospect here on HF.

Will Kreider develop his game where he gets the points? Who knows.. It seems Kreider would need a star play making center such as Richards to really bring out Kreider's potential. He certainly does not have this luxury at the AHL right now.

However, as case be argued that any decent prospect would look great on a line with Brad Richards. It will be interesting in a few years to see the career path that Kreider takes.

He is an almost perfect position for a prospect to succeed in the NHL. He was groomed a few years in college, had a taste of NHL success in the playoffs learning from stars and quality veteran players such as Richards, Callahan, Gaborik Girardi and etc. He has a great coach in Torts who will push Kreider to reach his potential. Kreider wont have the added pressure some young prospects have to be "the man" on this Ranger team. He can blend in and develop at his own pace. Kreider can't ask for a better position to be in. It is now up to him to reach his potential.

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