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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-09-2013, 12:38 PM
  #476
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
You keep missing the point. Rookies (especially pure rookies like Kreider was) dont step right into a drive to the CF and score goals. The reason they dont score goals is because their coaches (surprise surprise) dont trust them with enough ice time or in key situations because (surprise surprise) they're friggin rookies.
You do realize that Kreider was given 70% offensive zone starts, right? he was put in an incredibly advantageous position to succeed.

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Offensive Era:

Jagr -- 3 goals in 24 games
Shanahan -- 2 goals in 12 games
Roenick -- 1 goal in 10 games
Lafontaine -- 3 goals in 16 games
Fleury -- 5 goals in 22 games
Tocchet -- 3 goals in 19 games
Murray -- 4 goals in 15 games

Dead Puck:

Daze -- 0 goals in 16 games
Morrow -- 2 goals in 21 games
Tanguay -- 2 goals in 17 games
Gomez -- 4 goals in 23 games
Datsyuk -- 3 goals in 21 games
Jagr, Shanahan, Roenick,Lafontaine, Daze were all 19 years old. Not comparable. Morrow was 20, and barely played in the playoffs. Not comparable. Gomez was 20, and was coming off a 70 point regular season. Not comparable.Fleury had produced nearly a point a game in 36 NHL games before that(and nearly a goal per game in the minors that season). Not comparable.

If you want to actually compare Kreider to Datsyuk, go right ahead. Im fairly confident at how that will turn out.

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01-09-2013, 12:50 PM
  #477
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Your view on what "production" is sophomoric. You have yet to prove that Kreider didn't produce as a collegian. You've repeated ignored my posts which showed Kreider was statistically one of the better freshman in the country.
0.81 ppg over 114 college games. Sorry, not very impressive for a supposed top 10-15 prospect in the league. I've ignored nothing at all, you just want to see that.

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In addition to all that, you also ignored the fact that at several current 1st line NHL players had horrible AHL rookie seasons and were top-rated prospects.
I havent ignored anything:

Andrei Kostitsyn: 19 years old in the AHL. Not really comparable, but also a career 0.55 ppg in the NHL(45 points in an 82 game season)
Tomas Fleischmann: 20 years old his 1st year in the AHL. At kreiders age, 30 goals and 63 points in 57 AHL games.
Alexandre Burrows: An obvious exception, yet still only a career 0.51 ppg in the NHL. But if you are fine with Kreider not doing anything worthwhile until he is 27, then so be it.
David Desharnais: A similar exception, if you are fine with waiting until age 25.
Michael Ryder: Maybe the one good comparable you've come up with, but even he is an exception.
Mark Streit: Defenseman, not comparable.
Ryan Kesler: 19 years ol his first AHL season. Followed that up with 58 points in 78 games at age 20. Not comparable.
Nathan Horton: In the AHL)for 21 games) at age 19. Not comparable.
Brandon Sutter: Another decent comparable. Although one you should really be pushing if you think kreider is going to turn into any significant scorer.

See theres the problem. You come up with guys who are not comparable at all to Kreider.

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(Enter "zone starts" argument)
"Dont care" for them all you want, it doesnt make them any less relevant. Getting 70% offensive zone starts is extremely helpful in producing offense.

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01-09-2013, 12:52 PM
  #478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
How is it flawed when Kreider did in fact lead (or tied) his rookie class in goals?

I'm not arguing he could have lead his class in goals. I'm saying he did and by doing so, he joined an esteemed group of accomplished forwards.
Of course he lled that specific little category in goals. Because he played more games and was put in a very advantageous positon to do so. Your stat doesnt take games played or several other factors into consideration.

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If Player X hits a rookie-leading 5 HR's in 18 playoff games, and Player Y hits 2 in 5 games, not a single objective fan would say what Player Y did was comparable to what Player X did.
Sure you could. games played is extremely helpful.

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01-09-2013, 12:53 PM
  #479
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Never seen so much talk about such an average prospect.

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01-09-2013, 12:54 PM
  #480
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Kreider scored three goals in the CF. How many rookies have done that?
How many were able to play in the CF? how many were given extremely advantageous zone starts with great linemates? You cant just leave thse things out, they are all a part of the entire picture.

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Again, all I'm doing is explaining why he was rated so high. While 18 games isnt a large sample size, 18 NHL playoff games will always trump one or two or three years in the CHL or NCAA when scouts, coaches and GMs assess their and other teams players
Not to me. Large sample size>extremely small sample size.

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01-09-2013, 02:52 PM
  #481
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overrated kreider

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01-09-2013, 03:44 PM
  #482
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He benefited a ton from having fresh legs while everyone else had to go through a season grind that coupled with his speed let him pressure the puck really well.

It comes down to him being big and fast, which is what everyone wants in a utility winger nowadays. He seems like a bigger/faster North American version of Kulemin with a bit less hockey IQ.

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01-09-2013, 03:50 PM
  #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
I've seen him plenty. I see size, speed, and a good shot. Thats it. I see a clear lack of hockey IQ, a clear lack of being able to generate offense, and a clear lack of consistent production over any decent sample-size.

Those add up to someone who is IMO not an elite-level prospect. Elite level prospects playing in North America(juniors, college) almost always produce offense when they are in juniors or college. Kreider didnt consitently do that, yet alot of people seem to think that its magically going to change when he gets to the NHL.
So according to your personal scouting department, a yearly statistical improvement in offense is not considered "consistent" and disqualifies anybody from being an elite prospect.

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01-09-2013, 03:53 PM
  #484
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Im going to give you the benefit of the doubt here and assume you arent actually comparing these two.


See this is what I dont get. He's never produced at a consistently high level over any decent sample size, yet people still put his upside at 30 goals. IMO his ceiling just isnt as high as alot of people want to believe it is. its extremely rare for players playing in North American leagues to not produce at lower levels, then somehow produce more at the NHL level.
Already proven he produced in college, unless you consider guys named to all-rookie teams and postseason all-Conference teams as unproductive, which we all know is downright ridiculous and laughable.

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01-09-2013, 03:56 PM
  #485
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Ya i dont get the love for Kreider. Seems more like a elite 3rd liner, average 2nd liner at most.

Some ranger fans seem to think hes a lock to be a 30-30 player or more.

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01-09-2013, 04:05 PM
  #486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Pacioretty put up 39 points in 37 games as an 18/19 year old in college, then 29 points in 37 games in the AHL at age 19/20(split with NHL games.

Parise put up seasons of 61 and 55 points at ages 18 and 19 respectively in college. His AHL season was at age 20.

Neither are good comparisons for Kreider at all.
Yeah, let's fail to mention that Parise scored 32 points as a full-season NHL rookie and scored one goal in nine playoff games.

That number 32 sure rings a bell. Oh yeah...that was Kreider's "unimpressive" point total over a full 82 NHL games based off his postseason.

Love the logic -- It's OK for Parise to score 32 points as a rookie and have a no-show postseason because he had one above-average AHL season. But Kreider's expected 32 points as a rookie means he's destined for failure because he struggled in 30 AHL games of his own.

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01-09-2013, 04:08 PM
  #487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Yeah, let's fail to mention that Parise scored 32 points as a full-season NHL rookie and scored one goal in nine playoff games.

That number 32 sure rings a bell. Oh yeah...that was Kreider's "unimpressive" point total over a full 82 NHL games based off his postseason.

Love the logic -- It's OK for Parise to score 32 points as a rookie and have a no-show postseason because he had one above-average AHL season. But Kreider's expected 32 points as a rookie means he's destined for failure because he struggled in 30 AHL games of his own.
Extrapolating from his postseason numbers

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01-09-2013, 04:12 PM
  #488
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Of course you would say that, it doesnt fit your agenda. I just love how you prop up 18 ok games in the NHL playoffs(where he shot a likely unsustainable 17% and had 70% offensive zone starts), but throw out his two mediocre years in college(even his 3rd wasnt even that great), and his Scott Glennie-esque production so far in the AHL.
Name me the two mediocre years in college please.

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01-09-2013, 04:14 PM
  #489
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Yeah, let's fail to mention that Parise scored 32 points as a full-season NHL rookie and scored one goal in nine playoff games.

That number 32 sure rings a bell. Oh yeah...that was Kreider's "unimpressive" point total over a full 82 NHL games based off his postseason.

Love the logic -- It's OK for Parise to score 32 points as a rookie and have a no-show postseason because he had one above-average AHL season. But Kreider's expected 32 points as a rookie means he's destined for failure because he struggled in 30 AHL games of his own.
No surprise here, you are completely ignoring Parises two years in college, in which his production completely dwarfed anything Kreider did in college.

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01-09-2013, 04:15 PM
  #490
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
But its not like he was some unstoppable force or something in the playoffs. He scored at a 32 point pace, while shooting 17% and getting extremely favorable zone starts.

It literally makes no sense how someone can hold that OK playoff performance in such high regard while completely ignoring his lack of college and AHL production
LOL another gem...


Lack of college production, despite the fact that in two of the three college seasons he was statistically one of the better players in his conference as both a rookie and a Junior, facts cemented by his selection to postseason all star teams.

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01-09-2013, 04:16 PM
  #491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Already proven he produced in college, unless you consider guys named to all-rookie teams and postseason all-Conference teams as unproductive, which we all know is downright ridiculous and laughable.
0.81 ppg in 114 college games. For a supposed top 10/15 prospect, that's just not that productive.

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01-09-2013, 04:18 PM
  #492
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Originally Posted by Badger Mayhew View Post
Extrapolating from his postseason numbers
The anti-Kreider crowd did in previous posts.

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01-09-2013, 04:18 PM
  #493
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
LOL another gem...


Lack of college production, despite the fact that in two of the three college seasons he was statistically one of the better players in his conference as both a rookie and a Junior, facts cemented by his selection to postseason all star teams.
0.81 ppg over 114 games. Not very impressive for a supposed top 10/15 prospect.

You can throw out all the "conference all star teams" you want. It doesn't change the number 0.81.

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01-09-2013, 04:18 PM
  #494
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
0.81 ppg in 114 college games. For a supposed top 10/15 prospect, that's just not that productive.
Says who? Besides you.

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01-09-2013, 04:19 PM
  #495
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
The anti-Kreider crowd did in previous posts.
Anti-Kreider? Hardly. I just don't buy his offensive upside. And I only said that was his pace, doesn't mean that's necessarily what he would produce

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01-09-2013, 04:21 PM
  #496
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Says who? Besides you.
History. The vast majority of forwards who don't produce that much in North American juniors or college, don't suddenly go on to produce more at the highest level in the world.

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01-09-2013, 04:24 PM
  #497
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
0.81 ppg in 114 college games. For a supposed top 10/15 prospect, that's just not that productive.
Like Blake Wheeler?

Billy Guerin in an offensive era averaged 0.64 PPG as a freshman. He became a 40-goal scorer.


Last edited by Steve Kournianos: 01-09-2013 at 04:38 PM.
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01-09-2013, 04:26 PM
  #498
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really dont get how anyone can talk crap about Kreider except those ridiculously jealous of him. it sucks that he was drafted and has played in a major market like New York and will be under the microscope, but on raw ability and talent, this kid has a very bright future ahead of him. It took a while for a kid like Bill Guerin to get rolling, but I can see him having a similar steady growth per year like Guerin did. Comparing players college numbers from almost 10 years apart is flat out stupid.

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01-09-2013, 04:38 PM
  #499
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History. The vast majority of forwards who don't produce that much in North American juniors or college, don't suddenly go on to produce more at the highest level in the world.
Kesler had 11 goals in 40 games as a freshman yet went on to be a 40-goal scorer in the NHL.

Ryan Malone -- 16 goals in his first 74 NCAA games

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01-09-2013, 04:42 PM
  #500
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Like Blake Wheeler?

Billy Guerin in an offensive era averaged 0.64 PPG as a freshman. He became a 40-goal scorer.
Of course there are exceptions, I've said that several times already. It's wishful thinking to think that any player is going to become an exception and not the rule.

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