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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-09-2013, 05:02 PM
  #501
Steve Kournianos
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Of course there are exceptions, I've said that several times already. It's wishful thinking to think that any player is going to become an exception and not the rule.
The problem your argument runs into is that Kreider's 2012 prospect ranking is based off of his dominant Junior season which was followed by his NHL postseason. If Kreider went to the AHL after college, chances are he wouldnt have been ranked that high.

Cling to his one sophomore season all you want. That was two full seasons ago. In about a week, he'll be getting a regular shift with one of the better teams in the NHL while the "vast majority" of "elite prospects" are either still in the CHL, NCAA or AHL.

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01-09-2013, 05:07 PM
  #502
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I think we've reached an impasse folks

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01-09-2013, 06:15 PM
  #503
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
The problem your argument runs into is that Kreider's 2012 prospect ranking is based off of his dominant Junior season which was followed by his NHL postseason. If Kreider went to the AHL after college, chances are he wouldnt have been ranked that high.

Cling to his one sophomore season all you want. That was two full seasons ago. In about a week, he'll be getting a regular shift with one of the better teams in the NHL while the "vast majority" of "elite prospects" are either still in the CHL, NCAA or AHL.
I'm just curious, what do you think his offensive upside is. I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that Kreider will be a NHL player, he will be one with his speed and size. People are arguing against the notion that Kreider will be a 30+ goal scorer/60 pt player in the NHL as many Ranger fans are expecting(some of which are more ridiculous with 70 point+ potential).

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01-09-2013, 06:30 PM
  #504
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Originally Posted by Kishire View Post
I'm just curious, what do you think his offensive upside is. I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that Kreider will be a NHL player, he will be one with his speed and size. People are arguing against the notion that Kreider will be a 30+ goal scorer/60 pt player in the NHL as many Ranger fans are expecting(some of which are more ridiculous with 70 point+ potential).
It looks like Kreider will be put in a position to succeed at the NHL level playing some type of top line minutes with stars such as Richards, Gaborik, Nash, Callahan and etc. It would not surprise me if he is a 30 goal 30 assist guy next year

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01-09-2013, 06:33 PM
  #505
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Originally Posted by Kishire View Post
I'm just curious, what do you think his offensive upside is. I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that Kreider will be a NHL player, he will be one with his speed and size. People are arguing against the notion that Kreider will be a 30+ goal scorer/60 pt player in the NHL as many Ranger fans are expecting(some of which are more ridiculous with 70 point+ potential).
You have to remember that Rangers fans expected him to hit at least 20-50 as a rookie because of Gaborik's injury. With no lockout, Kreider was looking at a good three full months of hockey playing at worst top-9 minutes with PP time as well (anywhere from 14-18 MPG) . With Gaborik back and a shortened season, I'd say 10-12 goals and maybe 20-25 points.

The 70-point expectations come from the idea that at some point in the next few years he will play with nash and Richards, or eventually he and Stepan will develop clockwork chemistry.

But let's be honest -- David Clarkson scored 30 goals and Joffrey Lupul was on pace for 82 points this season.

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01-09-2013, 06:55 PM
  #506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
You have to remember that Rangers fans expected him to hit at least 20-50 as a rookie because of Gaborik's injury. With no lockout, Kreider was looking at a good three full months of hockey playing at worst top-9 minutes with PP time as well (anywhere from 14-18 MPG) . With Gaborik back and a shortened season, I'd say 10-12 goals and maybe 20-25 points.

The 70-point expectations come from the idea that at some point in the next few years he will play with nash and Richards, or eventually he and Stepan will develop clockwork chemistry.

But let's be honest -- David Clarkson scored 30 goals and Joffrey Lupul was on pace for 82 points this season.
It's certainly possible, Clarkson had a career year, I wouldn't expect him to repeat that, although Devil fans may know better. I see him hitting 70 points in a career year, I don't see him as a consistent 70 pt guy, 30 goals is more realistic, I do like his shot, but his hockey IQ is not very good IMO.

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01-09-2013, 08:43 PM
  #507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
The problem your argument runs into is that Kreider's 2012 prospect ranking is based off of his dominant Junior season which was followed by his NHL postseason. If Kreider went to the AHL after college, chances are he wouldnt have been ranked that high.

Cling to his one sophomore season all you want. That was two full seasons ago. In about a week, he'll be getting a regular shift with one of the better teams in the NHL while the "vast majority" of "elite prospects" are either still in the CHL, NCAA or AHL.
Can you really call his junior season that dominant? Guys who go PPG in their third college year are pretty much a time per dozen. He wasn't a Hobey Baker finalist or anything.

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01-09-2013, 09:13 PM
  #508
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I've always seen Kreider as an Erik Cole type of player. Theres absolutely nothing wrong with that.

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01-09-2013, 09:57 PM
  #509
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Can you really call his junior season that dominant? Guys who go PPG in their third college year are pretty much a time per dozen. He wasn't a Hobey Baker finalist or anything.
Yes. He was dominant in his conference. He lead his team in scoring. His team won a local, league and national championship. He was voted to both his conference and NCAA regional post season AS teams.

Again, it boggles my mind how so many people in this thread fail to acknowledge the following:


1) The difference in style of play between the NCAA, the AHL and the CHL

2) The difference in style of play between the CCHA, WCHA and Hockey east

3) Leading any championship winning team team in scoring, or being among the leaders in your league in multiple offensive categories will never make you "average" or "dime a dozen"

4) That rookies are initially assessed and categorized on how they perform among their peers, not their respective leagues as a whole.

5) Kreider was a pure rookie. He went straight from the NCAA to the NHL playoffs. McPhee, Cote and Mazur made their NHL debuts in the playoffs but all had already played multiple seasons of pro hockey prior to hitting NHL ice.

Rod Brindamour, Tony Amonte, Doug Weight, Rob Blake are just some of the players who made their NHL debuts in the postseason right after the NCAA season ended. It's just not normal for an NHL coach to entrust a college kid with a key role during a deep playoff run in meaningful series deciding games. Torts did it a few times with Kreider. How that has become a knock on him just boggles my mind.

6) To the people knocking Kreider because he was benched -- I suggest you watch more Rangers games. Torts benches everyone at some point. He benched Richards. He benched Gaborik when the team was starved for goals and gaborik was playing with a torn shoulder. Means nothing.

As for his WJC stats (which people keep trying to minimize BTW)

Only four US-born players in the history of the tournament scored as many goals (10) over two WJC as he did.

John Leclair
Mike Modano
Jeremy Roenick
Brian Gionta

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01-09-2013, 10:11 PM
  #510
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Originally Posted by SomebodySaveKreider View Post
I've always seen Kreider as an Erik Cole type of player. Theres absolutely nothing wrong with that.
You're damn skippy there isn't. I would take that and run.

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01-09-2013, 10:28 PM
  #511
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These are prospects, not sure why so many people who have never met these guys are so invested that they get upset when someone doesn't think their team's prospect is the bee's knees. It's O.K., the sun will rise tomorrow, don't jump.

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01-10-2013, 01:02 AM
  #512
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6'3 230 pound speed demon with a great shot joins a stacked team. Why wouldn't it be a big deal?

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01-10-2013, 05:48 AM
  #513
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Big, and crazy fast. Above average shot. Decent hockey IQ. Great prospect.

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01-10-2013, 08:19 AM
  #514
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Labeling him a future star after 18 playoff games/solid NCAA career is as stupid as labeling him a tweener after 33 minor league games.

I'll wait until AT LEAST after the 2013-14 season to label him anything more than just a prospect.

Gotta love those AHL stat-watchers though. Must be the same people still waiting for these guys to break out in the NHL:

Darren Haydar
Chris Bourque
Jason Krog
Corey Locke
Keith Aucoin
etc, etc, etc...

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01-10-2013, 08:31 AM
  #515
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptCally View Post
Labeling him a future star after 18 playoff games/solid NCAA career is as stupid as labeling him a tweener after 33 minor league games.

I'll wait until AT LEAST after the 2013-14 season to label him anything more than just a prospect.

Gotta love those AHL stat-watchers though. Must be the same people still waiting for these guys to break out in the NHL:

Darren Haydar
Chris Bourque
Jason Krog
Corey Locke
Keith Aucoin
etc, etc, etc...
But Keither Aucoin will score 30 goals for the Leafs one day

Seriously though, I liked what I saw from Kreider last year in the playoffs. I haven't seen him at all this season, but going into last year I thought he was the next Viktor Stalberg. After watching him play though his IQ is clearly better and he uses his body in ways that Stalberg wouldn't be able to figure out. I think Kreider will be a good top 6 forward in the NHL one day. Maybe not top line, but top 6 for sure.

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01-10-2013, 12:18 PM
  #516
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I'd be pretty surprised if kreider broke camp with the big team this year.

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01-10-2013, 01:22 PM
  #517
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I'd be pretty surprised if kreider broke camp with the big team this year.
You must surprise easily. He will be on the big team and he will likely be in the top 6. Whether he stays depends on him performing better than he has in Hartford.

btw, what's lost in this discussion is how difficult it was to score goals (by anyone) in last year's playoffs. The Rangers' goal totals for the 20 games were:

4, 2, 1,2, 0, 3, 2,3 ,2, 2, 2,3,1,2,3,2,3,1,3,2 for an average of 2.15 per game. I'm guessing that the other rookies who debuted in the playoffs who scored 5 goals weren't part of such a defensive struggle. I can do the research but I'm pretty sure about this. The Rangers went to game 6 of the Stanley Cup Semifinals barely scoring. His 5 goals in his 18 games is very good considering the types of games that were played.

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01-10-2013, 02:41 PM
  #518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptCally View Post
Labeling him a future star after 18 playoff games/solid NCAA career is as stupid as labeling him a tweener after 33 minor league games.

I'll wait until AT LEAST after the 2013-14 season to label him anything more than just a prospect.

Gotta love those AHL stat-watchers though. Must be the same people still waiting for these guys to break out in the NHL:

Darren Haydar
Chris Bourque
Jason Krog
Corey Locke
Keith Aucoin
etc, etc, etc...
The failure of AHL scorers to translate to the NHL is not equivalent to a player who fails to score in the AHL succeeding in the NHL. It simply does not logically follow. If you were pointing to guys that didn't score in the AHL becoming NHL scorers then you'd have an argument but the converse doesn't hold.

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01-10-2013, 03:17 PM
  #519
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
The failure of AHL scorers to translate to the NHL is not equivalent to a player who fails to score in the AHL succeeding in the NHL. It simply does not logically follow. If you were pointing to guys that didn't score in the AHL becoming NHL scorers then you'd have an argument but the converse doesn't hold.

Unfortunately, that's not really something worth trying to look up (unless you know some guys off hand). I'll stick to making judgements after watching him play in the NHL.

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01-10-2013, 03:33 PM
  #520
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You have to remember that every year there are plenty of rookies that play the last part of the season and play well and they are hyped up. This could be just that.

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01-10-2013, 07:20 PM
  #521
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Originally Posted by CaptCally View Post
Unfortunately, that's not really something worth trying to look up (unless you know some guys off hand). I'll stick to making judgements after watching him play in the NHL.
I've looked it up, the only players from the US or Canada who has scored 25 or more goals in the NHL in the past 10 years scored less than .5 PPG during an 21+ year old AHL developmental season is king of the late bloomers Alex Burrows and an injury shortened year by David Backes who only got 13 in 31 after getting 10 in 12 the year before.

Its a pretty much universal rule amoung North Americans that guys who go on to be significant scorers in the NHL are very high scorers in developmental leagues. So AHL scorers don't necessarily become NHL scorers, but good NHL scorers are nigh universally great AHL scorers.

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01-10-2013, 07:29 PM
  #522
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
The failure of AHL scorers to translate to the NHL is not equivalent to a player who fails to score in the AHL succeeding in the NHL. It simply does not logically follow. If you were pointing to guys that didn't score in the AHL becoming NHL scorers then you'd have an argument but the converse doesn't hold.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=35679

Probably not the person you imagine/hope your top prospect becomes but...

Michael Ryder

2000-01 Quebec Citadelles AHL 61 6 9 15
2001-02 Quebec Citadelles AHL 50 11 17 28

6 25+ goal seasons in the NHL

It should be noted

2002-03 Hamilton Bulldogs AHL 69 34 33 67

But he was 22 at that time

I will agree though it's much easier to find guys who had good AHL stats transition that to good NHL states then somebody like Ryder(and in the case of Ryder he needed that extra season in 2002-03)

All that being said what Kreider's time in the AHL tells me is don't expect him to come guns a blazzing in the NHL, he probably will take 2-3 years before he hits his stride(so all this talk of Kreider being one of the favorites for rookie of the year is a pipedream)


Last edited by boredmale: 01-10-2013 at 07:45 PM.
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01-10-2013, 07:38 PM
  #523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
I've looked it up, the only players from the US or Canada who has scored 25 or more goals in the NHL in the past 10 years scored less than .5 PPG during an 21+ year old AHL developmental season is king of the late bloomers Alex Burrows and an injury shortened year by David Backes who only got 13 in 31 after getting 10 in 12 the year before.

Its a pretty much universal rule amoung North Americans that guys who go on to be significant scorers in the NHL are very high scorers in developmental leagues. So AHL scorers don't necessarily become NHL scorers, but good NHL scorers are nigh universally great AHL scorers.
And this has been my point the entire thread(not the AHL specifically, just lower leagues in general).

Now to be fair to Kreider, he doesn't fit neatly into this category as it was only 33 AHL games. Who knows if he'd have picked up his scoring pace over a full season.

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01-10-2013, 10:03 PM
  #524
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I'd be pretty surprised if kreider broke camp with the big team this year.
Camp was the playoffs. He made the team.

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01-11-2013, 09:38 AM
  #525
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Torts is not in the habit of handing spots to players who haven't earned it.

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