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Off-Season Madness the 16th: Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

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Old
01-01-2013, 10:56 AM
  #226
Dr.Funk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
For 2013, I'd take Halladay over any of our 5 starters.

Easily.

If Josh Johnson returns to form he's the only one I'd consider over Doc and that's if Doc doesn't return to form.

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Old
01-01-2013, 11:00 AM
  #227
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soriano is tempting

2012: 67.2 55 17 17 24 69 42sv
2010: 62.1 36 14 12 14 57 45sv

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01-01-2013, 11:05 AM
  #228
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soriano is tempting

2012: 67.2 55 17 17 24 69 42sv
2010: 62.1 36 14 12 14 57 45sv
He'll be very expensive ... But a hell of an addition

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Old
01-01-2013, 11:08 AM
  #229
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it would be so cool:

soriano
janssen
santos
delabar

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Old
01-01-2013, 11:22 AM
  #230
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My comment was:

Quote:
I would take any of the Jays top 5 pitchers over him, at this point.
I do not understand how makes me 'high'.

The movement and velocity on Halladay's pitches are not the same. He is also coming off a pretty questionable injury to his shoulder, which should not be ignored. As a result, he pitched pretty horrible to end the year, regardless of how much mental fortitude and hard work he was willing to put in.

The days of Roy Halladay being Roy Halladay are over. I understand that he was a hero to some of you, but this is just the unfortunate truth. The bar that was set was so high that I do not think he can reach it.

Now, how do I explain taking any pitcher in the Jays rotation over him?

Since Romero and Buerhle were brought up, I will explain them.

First, Romero was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season. Let's not ignore this fact. However, nobody predicted this to occur. It is also pretty much universally agreed upon that this is not something that is likely to carry over into a new season.

A pitcher who, increased his wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP prior to this season and finished 2011 with 15 wins, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178Ks, doesn't just suddenly suck. Plus, his problems are fairly identifiable: "His BABIP, which had been a very low .242 in 2011 jumped up to .311. His first pitch strike percentage dropped four points to 53.3%, nearly seven points lower than league average which can help explain why his already high walk rate spiked to league worst levels." (Fangraphs). From my gathering of Pitch F/X, there wasn’t a huge velocity loss. His mechanics look the exact same. Even his pitch moment is nearly identical. It was just a weird season.

Now for Buerhle, I will take his 10+ wins and 200+ innings over an injured and declining Roy Halladay. The advanced metrics certainly point to Halladay being a superior pitcher, even with his decline; however, there is no guarantee these two measures are reached. Buerhle has done it since 2001.

Now, it comes down to the fact that I do not think Halladay will be anywhere near the pitcher he once was. I also think he is declining, and a better Romero will surpass the range of Halladay's numbers. Buerhle will also have a direct impact towards the Jays winning more games. Having a consistent pitcher like this should not be ignored.

I realize that this is not the majority opinion, as you may feel Halladay will bounce back. You may also disagree with my assessment of Romero and Buerhle, however, I have presented a case for why I do not think my view makes me 'high'. That is the goal of this post, not to convince you otherwise.

In a somewhat fitting context, we'll just have to see what happens in 2013.

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01-01-2013, 11:30 AM
  #231
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It's Doc.... come on people. He'd be our opening day starter guaranteed.

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Old
01-01-2013, 11:37 AM
  #232
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Even if Doc isn't that top 3 pitcher anymore, he will surely be a heck a lot better than last season. Yes, he lost some velocity but its Doc, its not like he relies on velocity and should bounce back. FIP was a lot better than his ERA last year as well.

If you can expect Dan Haren to bounce back, I would argue Halladay is a bigger bet to bounce back.

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01-01-2013, 11:49 AM
  #233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
For 2013, I'd take Halladay over any of our 5 starters.

Easily.
I wouldn't go that far. I mean, our top 3 I might take ahead of him, given age and what they have done recently. But Buehrle and Romero? No question.

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Old
01-01-2013, 12:06 PM
  #234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
My comment was:



I do not understand how makes me 'high'.

The movement and velocity on Halladay's pitches are not the same. He is also coming off a pretty questionable injury to his shoulder, which should not be ignored. As a result, he pitched pretty horrible to end the year, regardless of how much mental fortitude and hard work he was willing to put in.

The days of Roy Halladay being Roy Halladay are over. I understand that he was a hero to some of you, but this is just the unfortunate truth. The bar that was set was so high that I do not think he can reach it.

Now, how do I explain taking any pitcher in the Jays rotation over him?

Since Romero and Buerhle were brought up, I will explain them.

First, Romero was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season. Let's not ignore this fact. However, nobody predicted this to occur. It is also pretty much universally agreed upon that this is not something that is likely to carry over into a new season.

A pitcher who, increased his wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP prior to this season and finished 2011 with 15 wins, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178Ks, doesn't just suddenly suck. Plus, his problems are fairly identifiable: "His BABIP, which had been a very low .242 in 2011 jumped up to .311. His first pitch strike percentage dropped four points to 53.3%, nearly seven points lower than league average which can help explain why his already high walk rate spiked to league worst levels." (Fangraphs). From my gathering of Pitch F/X, there wasn’t a huge velocity loss. His mechanics look the exact same. Even his pitch moment is nearly identical. It was just a weird season.

Now for Buerhle, I will take his 10+ wins and 200+ innings over an injured and declining Roy Halladay. The advanced metrics certainly point to Halladay being a superior pitcher, even with his decline; however, there is no guarantee these two measures are reached. Buerhle has done it since 2001.

Now, it comes down to the fact that I do not think Halladay will be anywhere near the pitcher he once was. I also think he is declining, and a better Romero will surpass the range of Halladay's numbers. Buerhle will also have a direct impact towards the Jays winning more games. Having a consistent pitcher like this should not be ignored.

I realize that this is not the majority opinion, as you may feel Halladay will bounce back. You may also disagree with my assessment of Romero and Buerhle, however, I have presented a case for why I do not think my view makes me 'high'. That is the goal of this post, not to convince you otherwise.

In a somewhat fitting context, we'll just have to see what happens in 2013.
So Romero will bounce back and Doc will not. Cool logic.

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Old
01-01-2013, 12:34 PM
  #235
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So Romero will bounce back and Doc will not. Cool logic.
You may not agree with it, and I may not agree entirely with it, but there is sound logic behind his argument.

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01-01-2013, 01:04 PM
  #236
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You may not agree with it, and I may not agree entirely with it, but there is sound logic behind his argument.
It truly is a "we will see" thing.

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Old
01-01-2013, 02:12 PM
  #237
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For fun I decided to do a "simulation" of the Jays on MLB 12 The Show. Got the most up to date rosters and I assigned high profile free-agents the the places they were rumoured to be going to.

Got some outlandish 'video game" numbers but aim high right? Made a couple trades, tried to stay realistic, only one of them is unlikely.

Jays Position Players
Jays Starting Lineup
1. Jose Reyes .315/.383/.443 4 HR 60 RBI 55 SB
2. Melky Cabrera .311/.357/.494 20 HR 97 RBI 16 SB
3. Jose Bautista .305/.372/.638 56 HR 151 RBI 9 SB
4. Edwin Encarnacion .267/.359/.516 41 HR 122 RBI 7 SB
5. Adam Lind .310/.358/.532 23 HR 64 RBI 1 SB (.322 RHP)
6. Brett Lawrie .260/.316/.422 17 HR 80 RBI 17 SB
7. JP Arencibia .246/.300/.462 27 HR 72 RBI 0 SB
8. Colby Rasmus .248/.302/.431 21 HR 60 RBI 15 SB
9. Emilio Bonifacio .326/.406/.470 9 HR 56 RBI 94 SB

Now these are pretty crazy numbers. Five .300 hitters, no one really low. Of couse this is really, really high end. No chance Bautista hits .305 and 56 homeruns. Edwin's numbers seem pretty realistic though, as do Arencibia's, Ramus's and Reyes (Though Reyes is a bit low on homeruns, his slugging goes way up since he had 12 triples and 51 doubles).

The worst one, though, has to be Bonifacio. Not only one of the highest BA in the league (I think it was 4th behind Trout, Mauer and Miguel Cabrera), but a .406 OBP? 94 SB really stands out as well, but know knows, if he hit that well he'd be on base enough to do it.

Blue Jays Bench
Josh Thole .146/.222/.171 0 HR 3 RBI
Maicer Izturis .193/.202/.256 1 HR 3 RBI 1 SB
Rajai Davis .227/.301/.356 4 HR 20 RBI 23 SB
Reed Johnson .273/.308/.374 5 HR 29 RBI 2 SB (.297 LHP)
George Kottaras .282/.310/.492 9 HR 23 RBI 0 SB
Billy Hamilton .317/.360/.481 2 HR 13 RBI 14 SB
David Cooper.233/.268/.500 1 HR 2 RBI 0 SB (Sent down for extra reliever pretty early

Italics indicates traded, bold indicates traded for. Jose Thole and Izturis were traded because they both started out horrible. Thole only had 2 hits in 60 at bats at the start of July, Izturis was under .200. Traded Mike McCoy and Jose Thole for Kottaras, don't think that's too absurd. Now to replace Izturis I traded for Billy Hamilton, which I did by giving Darren Oliver, Kyle Drabek and Maicer Izturis for Hamilton and another guy. Hamilton was the Jays supersub for the rest of the year.

I traded for Reed Johnson because I was platooning Davis and Lind at DH and Davis was hitting under .250 LHP while Johnson was hitting over .300. I don't remember what prospect I gave for Johnson, but it was a bad one.

Blue Jays Pitchers
Blue Jays Starters
1. RA Dickey 18-9 2.99 ERA 288 SO 237.2 IP 1.14 WHIP
2. Josh Johnson 17-6 3.53 ERA 242 SO 229.0 IP 1.23 WHIP
3. Mark Buerhle 20-4 3.01 ERA 162 SO 234.1 IP 1.12 WHIP
4. Brandon Morrow 17-7 3.38 ERA 234 SO 215.1 IP 1.16 WHIP
5. Ricky Romero 10-14 4.93 ERA 173 SO 183.0 IP 1.54 WHIP

Pretty crazy numbers again, I think this is another one on the high end. Is there any chance all 5 of these guys stay completely healthy? Probably not. And if they do, 4 guys with sub 4.00 ERAs?

Then again, the talent is there for this to happen. Maybe not Buerhle doing that well but the other guys sure.

Blue Jays Relievers

LRP -
1. Jason Happ 1-0 1.70 ERA 53 SO 37.0 IP 1.30 WHIP
MRP -
1. Brad Lincoln 5-3 3.76 ERA 66 SO 67.0 IP 1.27 WHIP
2. Esmil Rogers 3-3 3.62 ERA 44 SO 37.1 IP 1.34 WHIP
3. Luis Perez 7-5 2.89 ERA 61 SO 56.0 IP 1.07 WHIP
4. Sergio Santos 1-2 4.26 ERA 42 SO 31.2 IP 1.39 WHIP
Setup -
1. Jason Frasor 1-3 1.74 ERA 68 SO 51.2 IP 0.81 WHIP
Closer -
1. Casey Janssen 1-1 1.58 ERA 60 SO 51.1 IP 1.15 WHIP 45 Saves

I chose I have Frasor resign in this world, which meant Delabar was sent down. I went with an extra bullpen arm after I demoted Cooper, which was Lincoln but it returned to normal when I sent Oliver to Cinncinati. Delabar, Cecil and Stroman had excellent seasons and if the bullpen wasn't this good, they probably would have been up.

Overall it's a really high end simulation but is it any worse then others that have been done? I didn't do playoffs, just a season simulation, and the Jays went 104-58, finishing 7 games above the Yankees. MLB 12 The Show doesn't have the second wild card, but if it did the Cleveland Indians would have got it (Yankees got the first), 2 games above the Rays.

Awards in this simulation were:
Gold Glove: Mark Buerhle P
Silver Slugger: Melky Cabrera LF, Jose Bautista RF, Jose Reyes SS, Emilio Bonifacio 2B
Hank Aaron: Jose Bautista
AL Cy Young: RA Dickey
AL MVP: Jose Bautista

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01-01-2013, 02:43 PM
  #238
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I'm surprised they only got 104 wins with those kinds of numbers.

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01-01-2013, 03:13 PM
  #239
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Our number 9 hitter hitting .330 and stealing nearly 100 bases?

*heads downtown to get spot along parade route*

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01-01-2013, 03:14 PM
  #240
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So Romero will bounce back and Doc will not. Cool logic.
How long before Happ replaces Romero in the rotation, or well AA take the chance of moving Happ to regain some prospects for the system.

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01-01-2013, 03:46 PM
  #241
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Buehrle 20-4


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01-01-2013, 04:46 PM
  #242
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When this happens next year everyone better remember

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01-01-2013, 05:26 PM
  #243
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I really want Bonifacio to start over Izturis. The upside to having Boneface play everyday compared to Izturis is so much higher.

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01-01-2013, 05:32 PM
  #244
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I really want Bonifacio to start over Izturis. The upside to having Boneface play everyday compared to Izturis is so much higher.
I'm with you brother

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Old
01-01-2013, 05:45 PM
  #245
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I really want Bonifacio to start over Izturis. The upside to having Boneface play everyday compared to Izturis is so much higher.
As the supersub Boni will play nearly everyday day. Izturis is the superior defensive infielder.

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01-01-2013, 06:00 PM
  #246
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As the supersub Boni will play nearly everyday day. Izturis is the superior defensive infielder.
You can play Bonafacio at any position you want later in the game. Add in rest days/injuries for starters and he'll get plenty of time.

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Old
01-01-2013, 06:10 PM
  #247
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You can play Bonafacio at any position you want later in the game. Add in rest days/injuries for starters and he'll get plenty of time.
It's just that he might be playing everyday, it doesn't mean he's going to get 600 at bats. Maybe 400 if he's playing the supersub role. If he starts hot, I don't really care if Izturis is better defensively.

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01-01-2013, 06:21 PM
  #248
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I really want Bonifacio to start over Izturis. The upside to having Boneface play everyday compared to Izturis is so much higher.
I've heard rumblings that Izturis was promised the 2B role by AA when he signed. In either case though, Boni will get his 500-600 PAs when the injuries start to hit. The key is that he stay healthy.

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Old
01-01-2013, 06:25 PM
  #249
cyris
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It's just that he might be playing everyday, it doesn't mean he's going to get 600 at bats. Maybe 400 if he's playing the supersub role. If he starts hot, I don't really care if Izturis is better defensively.
You dont care about having good defense at one of the most important defensive positions?

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01-01-2013, 06:27 PM
  #250
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I've heard rumblings that Izturis was promised the 2B role by AA when he signed. In either case though, Boni will get his 500-600 PAs when the injuries start to hit. The key is that he stay healthy.
Even if the lineup is healthy Boni can start up to 5 or 6 games a week just giving guys a rest day.

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