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Off-Season Madness the 16th: Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

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Old
01-01-2013, 06:56 PM
  #251
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
You dont care about having good defense at one of the most important defensive positions?
Bonifacio isn't horrible defensively so no I don't.

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01-01-2013, 07:00 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
You may not agree with it, and I may not agree entirely with it, but there is sound logic behind his argument.
Not really... It's a lot easier to make a sound argument for Halladay over any of the 5 pitchers. He even contends that himself:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
The advanced metrics certainly point to Halladay being a superior pitcher, even with his decline; however, there is no guarantee these two measures are reached.
Keep in mind the original assertion was over any of the 5. That isn't a winning argument. It's almost entirely based on 'what ifs'.

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Old
01-01-2013, 07:37 PM
  #253
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The only one that should be bumped down is Philadelphia, since Halladay is getting too much credit based on his past reputation. I would take any of the Jays top 5 pitchers over him, at this point. He's also Philadelphia's #3 pitcher, so I am not sure how they are better, unless you think Lee and Hamels makes up the ground on the rest of the Jays rotation.

Tampa Bay is also interchangeable. Price is the best pitcher in the division, however, outside of that, they have a huuuge amount of depth but nothing concrete. I think Moore has a huge season and Hellickson regresses a bit, but is that better than the Jays top 5?

The rest I think I agree with, at least certainly Washington and Detroit.

Anyway, I think Jays' fans should take happiness in:

1) Going from a bottom 10 rotation to a top 10 rotation.
2) Possessing the potential to be the best rotation in baseball.
3) Having a starting pitcher who can win you a game on any given night.

I would be interested in seeing where the Jays rank on a list concerning the best teams on paper (with all things -- bullpen, rotation, offense, defense, and base-running -- considered).
If Halladay was still on the Blue Jays and put up the same numbers with the Phillies and I'm including his 2012 season, I would still put him in the Blue Jays starting rotation.

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Old
01-01-2013, 09:04 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER View Post
If Halladay was still on the Blue Jays and put up the same numbers with the Phillies and I'm including his 2012 season, I would still put him in the Blue Jays starting rotation.
That's cool. You're entitled to this opinion, as it can be argued for. I just disagree with it. We'll see what happens over the course of the season. I would love for Halladay to be that pitcher of old, I just don't see it happening anymore.

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Originally Posted by The Expert View Post
Not really... It's a lot easier to make a sound argument for Halladay over any of the 5 pitchers.
Please make this argument. I would love to see it. Keep in mind, if you are referring to Halladay's past, then guy's like Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum should also be better than the 5 pitchers the Jays have in their rotation.

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Originally Posted by The Expert View Post
He even contends that himself:
The post you quoted was regarded towards Buerhle, not the likes of Johnson, Dickey, and Morrow. I would for sure take them over Halladay.

I was saying the advanced metrics will show that Halladay is better than Buerhle, but I stated reasons why I would prefer Buerhle at this time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Expert View Post
Keep in mind the original assertion was over any of the 5. That isn't a winning argument. It's almost entirely based on 'what ifs'.
And any argument saying Halladay is better than any of the Jays top 5 pitchers is not a winning argument either.

Also, I do not know what you mean by 'what ifs' in this context.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
If you can expect Dan Haren to bounce back, I would argue Halladay is a bigger bet to bounce back.
This is the funny part.

A lot of people were down on Haren saying he's no longer an ace, the Jays should look into Edwin Jackson, etc., but are so quick to still believe in Halladay, even though his numbers, decline in velocity, and lingering injury issues are just as bad. This was even before the Chicago debacle with the breakdown of Haren being traded.

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Originally Posted by Ace14 View Post
So Romero will bounce back and Doc will not. Cool logic.
Did you even read my post, where I argued for this claim?

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Originally Posted by darko View Post
Disagree completely. I think Doc puts up a 5+ WAR season, something Buehrle has done once in his career and trumps Buehrle in most major pitching categories. Doubt Doc ever returns to the level he was but I'd be surprised if he doesnt bounce back. Doc will be better than both Buehrle and Romero (and I have Romero pegged as a bounce back candidate too).
Yeah, I have Doc around a 3-3.5 WAR season, while Buerhle will be around that same mark roughly, but will have more wins and more innings pitched. These two will be very close. However, I have Romero coming in at a 4.5 WAR season. I think not having to carry a staff will do wonders for him.

We'll see what happens. I look forward to this season.


Last edited by Epictetus: 01-01-2013 at 09:14 PM. Reason: Added the post directly below me.
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Old
01-01-2013, 09:08 PM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
Now for Buerhle, I will take his 10+ wins and 200+ innings over an injured and declining Roy Halladay. The advanced metrics certainly point to Halladay being a superior pitcher, even with his decline; however, there is no guarantee these two measures are reached. Buerhle has done it since 2001.

Now, it comes down to the fact that I do not think Halladay will be anywhere near the pitcher he once was. I also think he is declining, and a better Romero will surpass the range of Halladay's numbers. Buerhle will also have a direct impact towards the Jays winning more games. Having a consistent pitcher like this should not be ignored..

Disagree completely. I think Doc puts up a 5+ WAR season, something Buehrle has done once in his career and trumps Buehrle in most major pitching categories. Doubt Doc ever returns to the level he was but I'd be surprised if he doesnt bounce back. Doc will be better than both Buehrle and Romero (and I have Romero pegged as a bounce back candidate too).

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01-01-2013, 09:55 PM
  #256
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Epictetus would you like to make an Avatar bet on this?

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Old
01-01-2013, 10:53 PM
  #257
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I think R.A Dickey and Josh Johnson will be better than Halladay in 2013. I think Brandon Morrow should be better than Halladay in 2013. I think Mark Buerhle and Roy Halladay will have similar numbers - 200 innings with an ERA around 3.60-4.00. I take Halladay though. Romero having a good or bad season is like flipping a coin... unless someone proves me there is statiscal evidence that are strong indications Romero will bounce back than i'm not even going to debate it. Halladay is mentally stronger than Romero, possibly stronger than anyone in Majour league baseball, he's a warrior and thats a trait Romero lost last year.


RE: Onely top 10 rotations - any of the top 10 are interchangeable. Any rotation could blow up and see 3 pitchers go down with injuries or any rotation could be the best... If you put your self in the top 10 on paper you are in the card game to be one of the best.

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01-01-2013, 10:57 PM
  #258
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I don't think Halladay will come back with being the best pitcher in the NL but I do think he will be a top ten pitcher in the NL.

An ERA in the low 3's.

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01-01-2013, 11:06 PM
  #259
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Roy Halladay has lost stuff and thus loses pitching ability. I don't know why so many people get hung up on past performance with pitchers. Pitchers only perform at the level their stuff allows them too so as you age you lose stuff. It is really not that complicated if you take off the bias glasses and look at it objectively.

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01-01-2013, 11:11 PM
  #260
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DIPS loved Halladay's 2012, he was only slightly worse than his career average because his BB/9 was over 2 for the first time since 2004. He'll bounce back and have a solid season of 3.5 run ball, with over 200 IP. I'd take him over Buehrle and Romero quite easily.

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Old
01-01-2013, 11:26 PM
  #261
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Originally Posted by TheKule View Post
DIPS loved Halladay's 2012, he was only slightly worse than his career average because his BB/9 was over 2 for the first time since 2004. He'll bounce back and have a solid season of 3.5 run ball, with over 200 IP. I'd take him over Buehrle and Romero quite easily.
Outright agreed but for our rotation, Buerhle and Romero are a better fit. Our pitching diversity is unreal. Two righty firethrowers(Johnson+Morrow), two finesse lefties(Buerhle+Romero), and a knuckleballer(Dickey).

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Old
01-02-2013, 06:18 AM
  #262
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Originally Posted by Paris in Flames View Post
Our number 9 hitter hitting .330 and stealing nearly 100 bases?

*heads downtown to get spot along parade route*
Lind hitting 310 too. If those numbers are close to what happens, we win 100 games. Buehrle 20 wins..

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Old
01-02-2013, 08:23 AM
  #263
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Lind hitting 310 too. If those numbers are close to what happens, we win 100 games. Buehrle 20 wins..
If it's any consolation, you could count the number of hits Lind had against LHP that season on your hands.

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01-02-2013, 09:52 AM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Roy Halladay has lost stuff and thus loses pitching ability. I don't know why so many people get hung up on past performance with pitchers. Pitchers only perform at the level their stuff allows them too so as you age you lose stuff. It is really not that complicated if you take off the bias glasses and look at it objectively.
I agree. However, I don't think he will be worse than Buerhele. Halladay isn't the best pitcher in the NL anymore and won't have 2.50 ERA. I can't see him having an ERA well over 4.00 though which Buerhele will have.

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Old
01-02-2013, 11:19 AM
  #265
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The Rays and David Price have reached agreement on a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, a baseball source told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

Price obtained $10.1MM for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports

The left-hander was arbitration eligible for the second time this winter thanks to his Super Two status. Price is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2015 season.

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01-02-2013, 11:36 AM
  #266
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Just in time to replace Dickey.

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01-02-2013, 11:50 AM
  #267
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so Price is a free agent in 2014? He's 99.9% heading to free agency and he's going to get a record breaking contract. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first pitcher to get 30 million. I could honestly see the Dodgers and Yankees getting in a bitting war and it getting out of hand lol.

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01-02-2013, 11:50 AM
  #268
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Just in time to replace Dickey.
What are you taking about Dickey's still going to be here in 2025.

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01-02-2013, 11:56 AM
  #269
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"... if the Jays win the World Series, it will be baseball's way of making up for foisting Donald Fehr on the NHL"

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/87...headlines-2013


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01-02-2013, 11:56 AM
  #270
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Is it wrong that I'm almost as excited about Tim Raines joining the organization as a coach as I am about all of the player acquisitions? Raines, as a player, was always a huge favorite of mine and the hiring him of as a baserunning/outfield coach would seem to indicate that the Jays plan on taking their baserunning game very seriously this season which, if true, would make them even more exciting to watch.

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Old
01-02-2013, 12:06 PM
  #271
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so Price is a free agent in 2014? He's 99.9% heading to free agency and he's going to get a record breaking contract. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first pitcher to get 30 million. I could honestly see the Dodgers and Yankees getting in a bitting war and it getting out of hand lol.
The left-hander was arbitration eligible for the second time this winter thanks to his Super Two status. Price is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2015 season.

they traded shields with 1 yr left and probably do the same with price after 2014
so they have him for 2 more seasons

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01-02-2013, 12:06 PM
  #272
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Quote:
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so Price is a free agent in 2014? He's 99.9% heading to free agency and he's going to get a record breaking contract. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first pitcher to get 30 million. I could honestly see the Dodgers and Yankees getting in a bitting war and it getting out of hand lol.
Quote:
The left-hander was arbitration eligible for the second time this winter thanks to his Super Two status. Price is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2015 season.
He has another two years of arbitration.

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Old
01-02-2013, 12:16 PM
  #273
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so they'll give him another 1yr 10mil deal on jan 1st 2014 - unless a nice trade offer comes up

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01-02-2013, 12:55 PM
  #274
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so they'll give him another 1yr 10mil deal on jan 1st 2014 - unless a nice trade offer comes up
I wouldn't be surprised if he's moved sometime this year, maybe at the deadline.

If the Rays are 1) Not in the playoff picture and 2) Have they're young guys like Myers etc. step up maybe they look to get a big haul now.

I think you could get alot more for Price with 1 more year of arb and a full season left than you could if you wait and are in the position where everyone knows the Rays have to deal him. Plus teams know Price is going to test FA... tough to get a big haul for him with 1 yr left, then it would with 1.5 years and a full offseason to workout a longterm deal.

I think the chances of the Rays signing Price longterm is less than 10%. They ponied up for Longoria, but he's on a good deal and Price is going to be way above market value.

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01-02-2013, 01:35 PM
  #275
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Yeah, I have Doc around a 3-3.5 WAR season, while Buerhle will be around that same mark roughly
Oh, boy. You will feel really foolish by the all-star break.

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