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Off-Season Madness the 16th: Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

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Old
12-30-2012, 03:00 PM
  #176
The Nemesis
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Congrat Pat Borders - this van is yours to give away to charity:

s****y.

edit: laugh: forgot that was in the censor.

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12-30-2012, 03:01 PM
  #177
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Congrat Pat Borders - this van is yours to give away to charity:

Kill it with fire.

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12-30-2012, 03:04 PM
  #178
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Borders manages to throw somebody out. I've got a good feeling about this game.
Interesting story they were saying about him being a 1B/3B till '86 when he asked Bobby Maddock if he could switch to C. Never knew that.

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12-30-2012, 04:45 PM
  #179
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The Marlins are apparently listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
What a joke of an organization.

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12-30-2012, 04:48 PM
  #180
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The Marlins are apparently listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
What a joke of an organization.
he wants out after the fire sale this off-season. Probably better to trade him and get a return than have it be an issue all season long.

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12-30-2012, 04:49 PM
  #181
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he wants out after the fire sale this off-season. Probably better to trade him and get a return than have it be an issue all season long.
We could make room for him here

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12-30-2012, 04:49 PM
  #182
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The Marlins are apparently listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
What a joke of an organization.
We need to be in talks with them

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12-30-2012, 04:54 PM
  #183
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he wants out after the fire sale this off-season. Probably better to trade him and get a return than have it be an issue all season long.
A guy that young with that much talent you find a way to make things work with him.
Try to convince him of the vision for the rebuild. They got some good young talent back in our trade.

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12-30-2012, 04:55 PM
  #184
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We could make room for him here
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Originally Posted by Brody View Post
We need to be in talks with them
Joey Batts to 1B, EE to DH and Stanton to RF.

Would leave us with a very right heavy bating lineup tho.

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12-30-2012, 04:57 PM
  #185
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But what do we have left that we could give up for him?

I would think they would want a deal involving Lawrie and that would probably be a non starter for me.

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12-30-2012, 05:05 PM
  #186
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But what do we have left that we could give up for him?

I would think they would want a deal involving Lawrie and that would probably be a non starter for me.
If we deal Lawrie, we could move Bautista to 3B and Stanton to RF

I don't want to trade Lawrie either, they'd probably be interested in prospects + picks though.

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12-30-2012, 05:13 PM
  #187
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Lind for Giancarlo?

Sounds ridiculous but then again so did Escobar/Hech/Nicolino/Marisnick/Alvarez/Mathis for Reyes/JJ/Buerhle/Boni/Buck and their flip of Escobar to TB wasn't a huge haul either.



In all seriousness, though, I think they'd finally demand a king's ransom after all the pressure on them and after the MLBPA is keeping an eye on them.
Also makes me wonder if Nolasco is on the market too.

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12-30-2012, 05:18 PM
  #188
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We unfortunately lack the pieces now to pull off that one. I doubt even Lawrie+Sanchez+Gose gets it done.

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12-30-2012, 05:19 PM
  #189
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Quote:
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Lind for Giancarlo?

Sounds ridiculous but then again so did Escobar/Hech/Nicolino/Marisnick/Alvarez/Mathis for Reyes/JJ/Buerhle/Boni/Buck and their flip of Escobar to TB wasn't a huge haul either.



In all seriousness, though, I think they'd finally demand a king's ransom after all the pressure on them and after the MLBPA is keeping an eye on them.
Also makes me wonder if Nolasco is on the market too.
I'd be willing to take on Nolasco's salary if they included Stanton .. We could send Lind back to balance it out a bit

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12-30-2012, 05:22 PM
  #190
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Frankly I can't see even the Marlins trading a premier talent making no money because he is unhappy. In 2 years when he makes real money sure, but not now.

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12-30-2012, 05:23 PM
  #191
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We unfortunately lack the pieces now to pull off that one. I doubt even Lawrie+Sanchez+Gose gets it done.
I was trying to put together a similar package and it pretty much included all our top10 prospects. He is a special talent though, one I would be willing to gut our farm system for.

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12-30-2012, 05:30 PM
  #192
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Pittsburgh or Tampa would get him if he is indeed available. They have the farm systems and are good enough teams to justify adding a cheap premier bat for 3 years of serious contention.

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12-30-2012, 05:33 PM
  #193
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Pittsburgh or Tampa would get him if he is indeed available. They have the farm systems and are good enough teams to justify adding a cheap premier bat for 3 years of serious contention.
I'd cry if Tampa got him ... He's a premier piece to add though

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12-30-2012, 05:36 PM
  #194
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I'd cry if Tampa got him ... He's a premier piece to add though
Longoria and Stanton (Myers would be headed their way) along with all that pitching would make them a world series contender for the next 3 years easily.

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12-30-2012, 07:22 PM
  #195
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The Marlins are apparently listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
What a joke of an organization.
He was pissed after our deal. He was lied to as well.

Wish we had him as part of the deal. Would have added anybody possible, Sanchez + Gose ++

In 2-3 years I believe he will be the best player in the league.

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12-30-2012, 07:27 PM
  #196
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I'd cry if Tampa got him ... He's a premier piece to add though
This is my fear. Good pitching prospects that can go Miami's way. Myers too.

I think KC could be a player. Added Shields and have a huge supply of prospects.

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12-30-2012, 07:59 PM
  #197
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Longoria and Stanton (Myers would be headed their way) along with all that pitching would make them a world series contender for the next 3 years easily.
He'd hit that ceiling catwalk on a nightly basis.

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12-30-2012, 08:09 PM
  #198
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If I'm the pirates I dangle 1 of Cole/Taillon and any other prospects to get it done. It would be a shame to waste McCutchens prime years while still retaining 1 stud pitcher to phase in this year.

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12-30-2012, 10:38 PM
  #199
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotst...e-not-born-mlb

insider article, but it's a solid read that I think does a good job of dispelling some of the mysticism that has been created around closers.

Quote:
All of this despite the fact that David Smith of Retrosheet.org wrote a research paper for the 2004 SABR Convention and found that despite the changes in reliever usage in recent decades, teams didn't do any better a job at holding leads.

To take Dave's research one step further, I took the roughly 3,000 pitchers over the last 30 years who were primarily used as a reliever and pitched 30 innings in two consecutive seasons, to see how changes in bullpen role affected expectations and results. For expectations, I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections, which is an easy source of historical projections. (My projection system, ZiPS, only goes back to 2002.)

Overall, middle relievers converted to closers tended to outperform their expectations in year two, a trend which disappeared when looking at closers that remained closer. This is to be expected as players that are improving are more likely to be trusted with additional responsibilities. This is what we call selection bias.

Going through players who received at least 10 more save opportunities after a season of fewer than 10 saves, the players that fit that storyline of "good reliever, can't cut it as closer" are damned few. I found only 10 that underperformed their projected ERA by at least a run and when you knock out the ones who turned out to be just fine in future seasons (C.J. Wilson, Dave Veres, Ron Davis) and the ones that were injured, you essentially end up with Mike Perez, Matt Herges, Cliff Politte, and Matt Lindstrom. Frightfully few for a 30-year period, even being nice and throwing in LaTroy Hawkins, who doesn't quite fit given that he handled the job admirably for a whole year before melting down.

Searching more deeply for the Loch Ness Closer, I ended up with the same results using other methods. Surely, given that no projection system takes into account moxie and mojo, the correlation between Marcel-projected ERA and actual ERA was no worse for middle relievers who got chances at closing than for middle relievers who didn't: 0.13 vs. 0.16, dreadfully small numbers. (And that low correlation is not a surprise given that reliever ERA jumps around more than Derek Jeter fielding a grounder in the hole.)

Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman were two of the best closers of this generation not because of a label or a job assignment, but because they were damn good pitchers. Rivera has succeeded because of a cutter that makes grown men cry and Hoffman succeeded because of a changeup that violates the gravitational constant of the universe. Why not just leave it at that?

In the end, the Hanrahan trade can best be evaluated on the basis of how good the players involved are, without the mumbo-jumbo. Lest we forget, Joel Hanrahan was a middle reliever just two years ago, rather than emerging from the womb as a ninth-inning closer. Hanrahan's job title has little bearing on the whether this trade turns out to be a good one or not for the Pirates.
The tl;dr version is that the success level of middle relievers who end up as closers isn't any different than those that stay in middle relief, and that a lot of closers end up coming from middle relief rather than just being born into the role of 9th inning specialist. This is in addition to the fact that the creation of the save stat and the 9th inning only closer hasn't significantly changed the outcomes of games in teh 100+ years of baseball history. Good closers are good closers because they're good pitchers, period. So we shouldn't be worried about Santos or Janssen in the 9th inning just because they don't have long-term experience in the closers role, or a history of closing playoff games or some such dismissal of their effectiveness. Similarly it's not necessary to have someone like Brian Wilson just because he's got WS closing experience or he's a character and everyone believes that closers should be flaky like goaltenders. The deciding factor is how good the guy is at pitching, and for someone like Wilson, the multiple significant arm surgeries should be a red flag that's not overlooked just because he's got an impressive beard and runs around the dugout like a court jester.

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12-30-2012, 10:53 PM
  #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BertCorbeau View Post
I'd cry if Tampa got him ... He's a premier piece to add though
He sure makes a lot of sense for Tampa. They would have to pretty much dump their farm system to do it but they should. With Stanton/Price/Longoria/Zobrist all under control for the next few years, they have a legit chance at winning... though they are a pretty good team right now too. Stanton puts them over the top.

Boston is another team that I think makes a lot of sense for Stanton. They have the prospects and wow, Stanton in that line-up playing in Fenway half the time. He would hit like 50 homeruns just at home.

Jays could have pulled off a deal for him before the Dickey trade but its tough to do it now unless they include Lawrie... which I would probably do if Jose is willing to move to 3rd base (would take something like Lawrie + Sanchez + Gose + Osuna and probably more).

But I find it hard to see Marlins trading Stanton now. They have already destroyed some of their fanbase and this would obliterate them. There is no reason to trade him until he gets expensive.

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