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v24: Rudy Gay/Hamed Haddadi for Ed Davis/Jose Calderon swap imminent

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Old
01-09-2013, 06:13 PM
  #476
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The word clutch should be banned from internet forums. Its too much of a 'you have to be there with the guy' term/assessment for any internet junkie to understand yet alone measure.

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01-09-2013, 06:17 PM
  #477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyperglide View Post
I'd rather have the latter.

I'd take Gay for DeRozan + an expiring Calderon, if the difference is only $7 million in a heartbeat. You fill a position of need and grab someone who is, not only for the reasons I mentioned earlier, a statistically better rebounder, shotblocker and brings more to the table in terms of stretching the floor and also taking opponents off the dribble in Iso's then the player going out.
That's not the proposed deal that was mentioned in rumors. That's your own creation that obviously makes more sense than Calderon/Davis/Picks

Quote:
Raptors get a star name player which they wouldn't otherwise obtain via free agency and don't give up any significant assets to do it. Memphis gets a solid PG to help their run in the playoffs and not cause Conley to burn out and they get an explosive you talented SG who is still improving and get rid of one of their big contracts in the process.
again, based on a new trade that you concocted for the discussion, not the media-supported rumor that's floating around out there. And I don't get what this "star name player" bit has to do with anything. Rudy Gay will not put butts in the seats any more than DeRozan or Davis would. To Joe-Average Basketball fan, there are probably 10-20 players in the entire league that would be marquee draws now. Rudy Gay is not on that list.

Quote:
Also how is it not a fair question? Explain to me how it isn't? It's quite possible a trade could be centered around these 2 players. I'm just asking who would you rather choose to take the game winning shot. Put yourself in the coaches shoes. This is what I mean about going with your gut instinct and intuition and how it's not a quantifiable stat. Obviously you make plays centered around your go to player and have 5 options on the court but your #1 option between DD and Rudy only who do you take?
it's not a fair question to ask if you'd rather have DeRozan or Gay because the scenario would not be an either/or situation. To get Gay you give up a bunch of other assets and take on additional debt. The decision doesn't exist in a vacuum. The comparison in this regard can't be made in a vacuum.

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01-09-2013, 06:24 PM
  #478
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i would much rather do a package around DD and jose for gay then davis + jose. i value davis higher then DD because of his skill set. DD also has trouble vs the good teams at creating his own and getting off good shots.

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01-09-2013, 06:34 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by Crabovski View Post
The word clutch should be banned from internet forums. Its too much of a 'you have to be there with the guy' term/assessment for any internet junkie to understand yet alone measure.
No, it should be banned because too often it's a a distortion of reality that ignores tangible evidence or the cold hard truth of a situation in favor of a preferred narrative.

Clutch in baseball has been discussed to death in the Jays threads. The gist of it is that at best, clutch is defined by the absence of collapse. That in situations where clutchness is called on, your best players are still bound to be your best players, and more often than not, the out-of-nowhere folk hero type performance (David Eckstein) is either a small sample size issue or collection of perception biases.

To that end, I found the article I wanted to about Kobe and clutchness:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time

Quote:
No matter how you define crunch time -- from the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime to the last 24 seconds -- and no matter how you define production -- field goal percentage, offensive efficiency, David Berri's Wins Produced, the results tell the same story: Bryant is about as likely to hit the big shot as any player.

ESPN Stats & Information's Alok Pattani dug through 15 years of NBA data (see table below) -- Bryant's entire career, regular season and playoffs -- and found that Bryant has attempted 115 shots in the final 24 seconds of a game in which the Lakers were tied or trailed by two or fewer points. He connected on 36, and missed 79 times.
In other words, Kobe is about a 45% shooter in these clutch situations. His career shooting mark? 45%

Kobe Bryant in crunch time is not some magical transendence of ability who always rises to the occasion. Kobe Bryant in crunch time is just Kobe Bryant the way he is the rest of the time. Which is still a damn good player. But that's not the point. The point is that he's not any better based on what the clock or the scoreboard reads.

I get that not everyone likes stats, and a lot of people are comfortable with the "truths" that they've been raised on and indoctrinated in for sports. This is not an argument for stats or to destroy all knowledge that's been accumulated for sports. It's an argument for common sense and open mindedness. It's an argument that rather than just trust what you've been told about sports, it's probably a good idea to look at what the evidence says and what solid conclusions can be drawn.

it's the mark of an educated mind to entertain a though without necessarily accepting it.

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01-09-2013, 06:49 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
No, it should be banned because too often it's a a distortion of reality that ignores tangible evidence or the cold hard truth of a situation in favor of a preferred narrative.

Clutch in baseball has been discussed to death in the Jays threads. The gist of it is that at best, clutch is defined by the absence of collapse. That in situations where clutchness is called on, your best players are still bound to be your best players, and more often than not, the out-of-nowhere folk hero type performance (David Eckstein) is either a small sample size issue or collection of perception biases.

To that end, I found the article I wanted to about Kobe and clutchness:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time

In other words, Kobe is about a 45% shooter in these clutch situations. His career shooting mark? 45%

Kobe Bryant in crunch time is not some magical transendence of ability who always rises to the occasion. Kobe Bryant in crunch time is just Kobe Bryant the way he is the rest of the time. Which is still a damn good player. But that's not the point. The point is that he's not any better based on what the clock or the scoreboard reads.

I get that not everyone likes stats, and a lot of people are comfortable with the "truths" that they've been raised on and indoctrinated in for sports. This is not an argument for stats or to destroy all knowledge that's been accumulated for sports. It's an argument for common sense and open mindedness. It's an argument that rather than just trust what you've been told about sports, it's probably a good idea to look at what the evidence says and what solid conclusions can be drawn.

it's the mark of an educated mind to entertain a though without necessarily accepting it.

If you think you can measure an individuals ability to be clutch you simply dont understand the assessment. Ill just keep it at that. Dont give yourself (or your numbers) too much credit.

I spend a lot of time looking at stats too. You cant claim to know the personal and emotional being (which you do by evaluating clutchness and leadership, which are 2 qualities that go 100% hand in hand) of the athletes. Well you can, but it would make you a moron.

Theres a lot more to the game than you might think. And Im just going to take a shot in the dark here and guess the only sport you might have played competitively was baseball.


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01-09-2013, 06:53 PM
  #481
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Originally Posted by Crabovski View Post
If you think you can measure an individuals ability to be clutch you simply dont understand the assessment. Ill just keep it at that. Dont give yourself (or your numbers) too much credit.

I spend a lot of time looking at stats too. You cant claim to know the personal and emotional being (which you do by evaluating clutchness and leadership, which are 2 qualities that go 100% hand in hand) of the athletes. Well you can, but it would make you a moron.

Theres a lot more to the game than you might think. And Im just going to take a shot in the dark here and guess the only sport you might have played competitively was baseball.
That's not an argument. That's the absence of an argument. That's "I can't back up my claim, so I'll just shroud it in mysticism and vagueness so that I don't have to defend the position I take."

I understand what people believe clutch is. I understand all of that. I just don't think it's as big of a deal as it gets made out to be.

and the sport I played was basketball, not baseball.

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01-09-2013, 06:56 PM
  #482
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At the end of the day if leadership or clutchness or intangibles is what is used in any argument it is not a very strong one, and probably shouldnt have been bothered being posted.

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01-09-2013, 07:00 PM
  #483
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Originally Posted by Crabovski View Post
At the end of the day if leadership or clutchness or intangibles is what is used in any argument it is not a very strong one, and probably shouldnt have been bothered being posted.
No, there's a place for discussion of intangibles and leadership. I'm setting aside clutch for the reasons I've noted before, but there absolutely is a time and a place in debates to talk about intangible attributes of players.

What I'm saying is that if established beliefs or truisms end up flying in the face of accumulated evidence to the contrary, maybe it's time to re-examine those things that everyone takes for granted as true. It's not about rejecting everything emotional about sports and reducing it to numbers on a stat sheet or cold, unflinching robotic/computational assessment. It's about being rational about things.

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01-09-2013, 07:02 PM
  #484
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In other news, ESPN has an article listing the top 10 potential trade chips approaching the NBA trade deadline (which is in february I think)

There's a Raptor on the list, but not the one you might think:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...10-trade-chips

Quote:
3. Amir Johnson (17.63) | Toronto Raptors

Johnson is playing well after a down year in the truncated 2011-12 season, and is signed long-term; he's owed $6.5 million next season and $7 million in 2014-15. Problem is, the rebuilding Raptors already have another emerging power forward in third-year man Ed Davis, who's both younger and cheaper.


For that reason, it wouldn't be surprising to see Toronto shop Johnson to a team in need of an experienced power forward who can rebound, block shots and finish at the rim.


Fits: Houston Rockets, Miami Heat
the # in brackets is ESPN's PER ranking, for the curious.
Good fits: Houston Rockets, Heat

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01-09-2013, 07:02 PM
  #485
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Why some stats guys laugh at being clutch is you can't define it by stats only. Being clutch involves being in the right spot at the right time and having success during those moments

A player can be clutch on a given night with a walk off HR. that is clutch now how do you quantify it for the stats guys like the sabre guys.

If a player does this over and over during his career he earns a reputation as a clutch player money player.

Michael Jordan was a great player but he was a clutch player making winning shot over and over again.

Sometimes there is part of sports you can't define by stats alone and have to understand the game and how people perform under pressure among other things

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01-09-2013, 07:13 PM
  #486
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
FWIW, Kobe's rep as a clutch guy for buzzer-beaters is overrated. I wish I could find the article, but I remember reading that he has a fairly poor record of hitting game-tying or game-winning shots, it's just that everyone will remember when he makes one and not the 8-10 that he misses in between.
I know. I said it a bit earlier on in the discussion.


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Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
I can go on youtube and show you a bunch of Anthony Morrow's clutch performances, doesn't mean you'd rather have him on the team than DeMar.

And I never said his 3pt shooting isn't better than DD's, I said it's overrated. It's as overrated as Kobe's clutchness.
Could be considered a hyperbole, because I mean we all hear about Kobe being the best shooter in crunch time, but Gay's 3pt shooting ability is overrated too.


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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Why some stats guys laugh at being clutch is you can't define it by stats only. Being clutch involves being in the right spot at the right time and having success during those moments

A player can be clutch on a given night with a walk off HR. that is clutch now how do you quantify it for the stats guys like the sabre guys.

If a player does this over and over during his career he earns a reputation as a clutch player money player.

Michael Jordan was a great player but he was a clutch player making winning shot over and over again.

Sometimes there is part of sports you can't define by stats alone and have to understand the game and how people perform under pressure among other things
It seems we always remember a player (like Jordan, Bryant, etc) as a clutch performer because of how many times they get the ball in their hands in the dying seconds, that we forget how many times they missed in those situations.

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01-09-2013, 07:22 PM
  #487
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Why some stats guys laugh at being clutch is you can't define it by stats only. Being clutch involves being in the right spot at the right time and having success during those moments
But if that level of success is not any different than the level of success you have the rest of the time in your career, how does that translate into having some sort of transcendent ability to do come up when it matters most? Your best players will usually be your best players no matter what the situation is. Some of them may collapse under pressure, but I've seen nothing that indicates that they're any better than their norm in the crunch other than anecdotal evidence. And that's the version of crunch that I take issue with.


Quote:
A player can be clutch on a given night with a walk off HR. that is clutch now how do you quantify it for the stats guys like the sabre guys.
HRs are a recorded stat. As are any number of situational breakdowns that can correspond to common "clutch" times (close and late, RISP, certain counts, high leverage situations for pitchers, etc. etc._

The stats are there if you're willing to look for them. The fact that you don't want to look (which is a perfectly valid choice. You don't need to be a stathead to enjoy the game) is in not an indictment of the evidence.

Quote:
If a player does this over and over during his career he earns a reputation as a clutch player money player.
Kobe Bryant has a reptuation as a clutch player. Kobe Bryant in clutch time is not any better than he is the rest of the time, nor any more likely to hit those clutch shots than many other big name players who don't get nearly the attribution of clutchness to their names that Kobe does.

Quote:
Michael Jordan was a great player but he was a clutch player making winning shot over and over again.
Except those times that he passed the ball to Paxon or Wennington to make those clutch shots (and it was the right choice)

and again, Michael Jordan is arguably the greatest person ever to play the sport of basketball in human history. Michael Jordan's clutchness comes down to the fact that he was just that good overall. and his talent tended to mean that the team leaned on him in important situations because it just makes sense to rely on your best players when it mattered.

I believe that there are players who wilt under pressure. I believe in, I guess you could call it "un-clutchness" or "choking", insofar as players who are otherwise good can't deliver when the situation gets to them. Hell, when the Vancouver Grizzlies where here, we had one in Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He was a very good scorer most of the time, but as soon as it got down to the end of the game with the score close, he suddenly couldn't hit a shot to save his life. But I don't think that being a choker or the like requires the opposite end of the spectrum (massive improvement in high-pressure situations) to be true.

Quote:
Sometimes there is part of sports you can't define by stats alone and have to understand the game and how people perform under pressure among other things
and this has nothing to do with people who like stats or use advanced metrics. Just because I don't subscribe to those ideas doesn't mean that I don't understand them.

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01-09-2013, 07:24 PM
  #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Why some stats guys laugh at being clutch is you can't define it by stats only. Being clutch involves being in the right spot at the right time and having success during those moments

A player can be clutch on a given night with a walk off HR. that is clutch now how do you quantify it for the stats guys like the sabre guys.

If a player does this over and over during his career he earns a reputation as a clutch player money player.

Michael Jordan was a great player but he was a clutch player making winning shot over and over again.

Sometimes there is part of sports you can't define by stats alone and have to understand the game and how people perform under pressure among other things
I really don't think you understand the debate.

The whole point of Nemesis' posts (in this thread and in the baseball threads) is that it's always the batter's job to get a hit, just like it's the Shooting Guard's job to nail jumpshots. When the game is on the line (in any sport), the true barometer for a player's situation value is if he can perform UP TO his career average. A .300 hitter should hit .300 in the 9th and RISP, and a career %40 field goal shooter should shot 40% in the last 2 minutes of the game. Nemesis even proved that Kobe Bryant in "clutch" scenarios performed EXACTLY to his career average.

The issue that Nemesis always mentions is that the notion that a player can become superhuman (by that player's standards) in a clutch scenario is false. With 2-minutes in the game Kobe doesn't become a 75% FG shooter...he simply performs to his standard level. In this sense, the illusion of Kobe being a "clutch player" is just that he's a very good player for 46 minutes of the game, and is just as good in the final 2 minutes. He doesn't morph into Kobe++, he's just Kobe.

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01-09-2013, 07:25 PM
  #489
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So the one shot at the end of the game determines an individuals ability to perform under pressure? You do realize Kobes put up those shots with alot less space than what most people would choose to take the shot with? How simple minded can you be. Theres alot more variables to this than you think. Alot more than what can be quantified by numbers or a few selective statistics. Nobodys professing Kobe to be the best pressure player in the world, but to say "He isnt clutch" is the same as saying he cant play under pressure. How many titles. Yea, tell me the guy isnt a pressure player, try too.

But please whatever you do, do not try to compare the pressures that one player faces to another because it is inherently flawed. The amount of variables that are involved in determining a pressure situation (or which situation has more pressure), you cant possibly expect to be able to measure this. You either are a pressure player or you're not. Theres no, "Hes more clutch" to it.


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01-09-2013, 07:29 PM
  #490
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
I believe that there are players who wilt under pressure. I believe in, I guess you could call it "un-clutchness" or "choking", insofar as players who are otherwise good can't deliver when the situation gets to them. Hell, when the Vancouver Grizzlies where here, we had one in Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He was a very good scorer most of the time, but as soon as it got down to the end of the game with the score close, he suddenly couldn't hit a shot to save his life. But I don't think that being a choker or the like requires the opposite end of the spectrum (massive improvement in high-pressure situations) to be true.
Agreed. In fact, for a true "clutch" player as most define it to exist, you'd need to find a player that is a career .220 hitter than regularly bats .350 in the post-season. Or a career 30% FG shooter that suddenly drains 50% in forth quarters. Of course, these players don't really exist because a .220 hitter likely isn't even going to get a CHANCE to bat in the post-season, because as you've preached, you need your best players to play in the so-called "crunch" time.

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01-09-2013, 07:45 PM
  #491
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Enough Pietrus.

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01-09-2013, 07:47 PM
  #492
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anderson is so ****** annoying....

does he really think hes lebron, stop giving him spread plays...

i wish demar hogged the ball


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01-09-2013, 07:54 PM
  #493
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Fields with 9 REB in the first half????

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01-09-2013, 08:57 PM
  #494
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Fields with 9 REB in the first half????
I need to go back and dig up that post I put up a week or two ago where I said Landry Fields would save us. Because he has. Fields comes back and we win games. Fields for MVP

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01-09-2013, 08:58 PM
  #495
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Why is our offense running through Alan Anderson?

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01-09-2013, 09:11 PM
  #496
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Holy hell, Amir. Where did that come from?

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01-09-2013, 09:14 PM
  #497
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Boring game but we needed the win.

Raps have to close out this homestand with a pair of victories. Can't lose either game

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01-09-2013, 09:19 PM
  #498
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Quote:
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Why is our offense running through Alan Anderson?
that is what i want to know..

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01-09-2013, 09:30 PM
  #499
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rising and falling player performances according to ESPN. On the rising side:


Quote:
Ed Davis | PF | Toronto Raptors

After a disappointing sophomore season, Davis began this season as a small part of Toronto's rotation. He averaged just 15 minutes a game in November, scoring 5.9 ppg with 5.4 rebounds. The Raps were losing, going 4-13 heading into December and promptly dropping their next six games.
In the fifth game of that losing streak, Andrea Bargnani got hurt and Davis was asked to fill a larger role. He put up 14 points and nine rebounds in 24 minutes. He followed that up with 24 points, 12 boards and three steals, going 11-for-13 from the field in 45 minutes. Though the Raptors barely lost to Brooklyn, neither the Raptors nor Davis have looked the same since.
After that coming out party, Toronto won eight of their next nine games (as Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry also shined), and Davis has become a legitimate starting power forward. Always able to finish shots, he showed he can be a bigger part of the offense while still focusing on rebounding. He finished December averaging over 10 ppg and 6.9 boards in 26 minutes and is up to 11.3 and 7.7 in January in 35 minutes a game. His defensive rebounding rate is better than Blake Griffin's, David Lee's and LaMarcus Aldridge's. Davis is one of Toronto's two best defenders, and in a 23-year-old body that is still maturing, he could be a strong starter for the Raptors for years to come.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...y-due-struggle

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01-09-2013, 09:56 PM
  #500
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I need to go back and dig up that post I put up a week or two ago where I said Landry Fields would save us. Because he has. Fields comes back and we win games. Fields for MVP
They need to give a raise to the surgeon who fixed his wrist and his confidence.

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