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Getzlaf/Perry rentals?

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Old
01-06-2013, 06:14 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
I meant Getzlaf, the elusive big number 1C they've been searching for since Sundin left. Their RFA's will cost max 5M combined + he can always buy out Komisarek. He's got the room if wants to do it and for Getz I think he would.
Ah, my mistake.

I don't think 9M would be enough to get Getzlaf to play for Carlyle again. I don't think 2M/year (8M total) would be enough to get Getzlaf's wife to move to Toronto.

Hopefully I'm not wrong, and hopefully Murray isn't an idiot about contract negotiations.

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01-06-2013, 06:34 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
Ah, my mistake.

I don't think 9M would be enough to get Getzlaf to play for Carlyle again. I don't think 2M/year (8M total) would be enough to get Getzlaf's wife to move to Toronto.

Hopefully I'm not wrong, and hopefully Murray isn't an idiot about contract negotiations.
IMO, anybody would be hard pressed to turn down 2M/year more. I think it's gonna take 8M a year to keep him here because that's what the most comparable players (E.Staal/Lecavalier) got. If he takes less than that then I'll tip my hat to him for giving us the "hometown discount".

Another questions is will Samueli eat the 60M+ budget that will follow if all 3 big guys are kept? Interesting times ahead.

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01-06-2013, 06:47 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
IMO, anybody would be hard pressed to turn down 2M/year more. I think it's gonna take 8M a year to keep him here because that's what the most comparable players (E.Staal/Lecavalier) got. If he takes less than that then I'll tip my hat to him for giving us the "hometown discount".

Another questions is will Samueli eat the 60M+ budget that will follow if all 3 big guys are kept? Interesting times ahead.
When Staal re-signed in Carolina, he was coming off 3 straight 30+ goal seasons (45, 30, 38), and had a 100 point season only a couple of years before. When Lecavalier re-signed with Tampa in 2008 he was probably a top 5 player in the league.

The way Getzlaf played last season, he shouldn't get that money at all. I'd be surprised if he signs sooner than a couple of months from now, when we know if he's still the player he used to be 2-3 years ago.

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01-06-2013, 06:59 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
When Staal re-signed in Carolina, he was coming off 3 straight 30+ goal seasons (45, 30, 38), and had a 100 point season only a couple of years before. When Lecavalier re-signed with Tampa in 2008 he was probably a top 5 player in the league.

The way Getzlaf played last season, he shouldn't get that money at all. I'd be surprised if he signs sooner than a couple of months from now, when we know if he's still the player he used to be 2-3 years ago.
As an UFA he will ABSOLUTELY get that money from somewhere guarenteed, one bad season or not. Top 10 centers in the league almost never hit UFA. Does he want to go to UFA or not, that's the question? Will Murray offer him enough to keep him from testing the market, in my mind 7M is not enough.

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01-06-2013, 07:11 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
As an UFA he will ABSOLUTELY get that money from somewhere guarenteed, one bad season or not. Top 10 centers in the league almost never hit UFA. Does he want to go to UFA or not, that's the question? Will Murray offer him enough to keep him from testing the market, in my mind 7M is not enough.
Yes, he could surely get $8 mil on the open market (with a bounce back season). But most players who decides to re-sign with their current team ends up signing for less than they could have gotten as an UFA. About $7 mil should be enough, if he wants to stay in Anaheim. If he doesn't want to stay in Anaheim, not even $8 mil is going to cover it. Players don't always signs where they get the best (from an economic standpoint) contract. If Anaheim truly is Getzlaf's first choice he should sign for slightly less than he could get on the open market.

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01-06-2013, 07:16 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
When Staal re-signed in Carolina, he was coming off 3 straight 30+ goal seasons (45, 30, 38), and had a 100 point season only a couple of years before. When Lecavalier re-signed with Tampa in 2008 he was probably a top 5 player in the league.

The way Getzlaf played last season, he shouldn't get that money at all. I'd be surprised if he signs sooner than a couple of months from now, when we know if he's still the player he used to be 2-3 years ago.
You're ignoring the salary cap. It was 56.8M in '09-10 when Lecavalier signed (let's be honest) a 10M retirement contract with a 7.7M cap hit, and Staal signed his 8.2M (real) contract. The cap will be 64M next year minimum, he'll get 7-8 easily, 9 would be an idiotic act of desperation by a GM in fear of losing his job, or a bottom feeder looking for legitimacy (Islanders with the new arena?). Which happens.

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01-06-2013, 07:29 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
Yes, he could surely get $8 mil on the open market (with a bounce back season). But most players who decides to re-sign with their current team ends up signing for less than they could have gotten as an UFA. About $7 mil should be enough, if he wants to stay in Anaheim. If he doesn't want to stay in Anaheim, not even $8 mil is going to cover it. Players don't always signs where they get the best (from an economic standpoint) contract. If Anaheim truly is Getzlaf's first choice he should sign for slightly less than he could get on the open market.
Rarely do they sign for less (Teemu does so we've been spoiled), Brodeur too maybe a couple of others, but guys in their prime, who've been underpaid so far in their career, not so much. And to expect him to sign for less is pretty selfish IMO, he's gonna get his money somewhere, might take a few 100K less to stay here for obvious reasons but a million or more is pushing it.

Hopefully Murray gets this and pays up. If it means trading Perry or Bobby then so be it.

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01-06-2013, 07:34 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
You're ignoring the salary cap. It was 56.8M in '09-10 when Lecavalier signed (let's be honest) a 10M retirement contract with a 7.7M cap hit, and Staal signed his 8.2M (real) contract. The cap will be 64M next year minimum, he'll get 7-8 easily, 9 would be an idiotic act of desperation by a GM in fear of losing his job, or a bottom feeder looking for legitimacy (Islanders with the new arena?). Which happens.
Or a stinking rich team not pushing against the cap like Toronto.

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01-06-2013, 07:48 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
You're ignoring the salary cap. It was 56.8M in '09-10 when Lecavalier signed (let's be honest) a 10M retirement contract with a 7.7M cap hit, and Staal signed his 8.2M (real) contract. The cap will be 64M next year minimum, he'll get 7-8 easily, 9 would be an idiotic act of desperation by a GM in fear of losing his job, or a bottom feeder looking for legitimacy (Islanders with the new arena?). Which happens.
I thought the cap was already over $60 mil at that point, my bad. I defenitely think Getzlaf will get around $7 mil cap hit or even $7.5 if he's back at producing PPG numbers this year. But I don't know about $8 mil. The cap has gone up since 2009, but I think we've seen the biggest salary raises in the 2nd and 3rd tier guys since, rather than the big star players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
Rarely do they sign for less (Teemu does so we've been spoiled), Brodeur too maybe a couple of others, but guys in their prime, who've been underpaid so far in their career, not so much. And to expect him to sign for less is pretty selfish IMO, he's gonna get his money somewhere, might take a few 100K less to stay here for obvious reasons but a million or more is pushing it.

Hopefully Murray gets this and pays up. If it means trading Perry or Bobby then so be it.
Teemu have taken extreme paycuts, but it's common for players to re-sign for below their open market value with their respective teams. You usually get the most $$$ once you've hit free agency, which is why many players wants to test the market. UFA's usually ends up being overpaid... Re-signed players, well they do too, but it's typically not as ugly. Just because were not paying up to match the overpaying offers, doesn't mean he's getting underpaid. It just means he's not getting overpaid. I'll agree that he and Perry has been underpaid so far in their careers though, and if they end up getting $8 mil that's probably gonna be a big reason for it.

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01-06-2013, 07:55 PM
  #60
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So realistically what could we expect to get for either one if they said they had no plans on re-signing with us?

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01-06-2013, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
Or a stinking rich team not pushing against the cap like Toronto.
That was meant to be implied by the idiotic act of desperation

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01-06-2013, 08:47 PM
  #62
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Even if Getz were to want the last dollar, I still don't think he would sign in Toronto. He may talk more than Perry but I believe he is very much a low profile guy that likes not being in the limelight. That's also why I believe he will stay and take less than the best financial deal he could have otherwise gotten.

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01-06-2013, 08:49 PM
  #63
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I get the same feeling from Getz. Just not worried about him leaving. There's no reason to be concerned about Perry either; I think a lot of people are just reading their own fears into his silence.

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01-06-2013, 09:10 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Damn Skippy View Post
I get the same feeling from Getz. Just not worried about him leaving. There's no reason to be concerned about Perry either; I think a lot of people are just reading their own fears into his silence.
I don't think them saying or not saying anything means much, usually all the pending UFA players spew the same line "I wanna sign here, I like it its great here yadda yadda" then the minute they hit UFA it's bye bye. That we know Getzlaf's wife is from Cali is actually much more important that whatever comments hes made.

IMO, Getzlaf will definately sign here if the moneys right (about 8M yearly).
Perry, who knows? If they're unsigned come April or say "I don't wanna sign during the season, because it's a disctraction..." then start to worry.

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01-07-2013, 12:54 AM
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In todays NHL all you need is a couple gamebreakers and an elite goalie, and if you make the playoffs you have a shot. if Hiller and RPG play to their potential, then we're a playoff team, if they are like last year, we're picking 6th again

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01-07-2013, 01:05 AM
  #66
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I have faith that both will resign.. That being said; I also had faith in Schultz signing, too.

I'm not saying it's going to happen again but with every day passing, the more concerned I'm getting.

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01-07-2013, 01:34 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Nab77 View Post
I don't think them saying or not saying anything means much, usually all the pending UFA players spew the same line "I wanna sign here, I like it its great here yadda yadda" then the minute they hit UFA it's bye bye. That we know Getzlaf's wife is from Cali is actually much more important that whatever comments hes made.

IMO, Getzlaf will definately sign here if the moneys right (about 8M yearly).
Perry, who knows? If they're unsigned come April or say "I don't wanna sign during the season, because it's a disctraction..." then start to worry.
I could care less what they tell the media, it's because they told Bobby Ryan they planned to stay long term that makes me hopeful. That doesn't make it a sure thing, but I don't think they would say that to Bobby Ryan before he was going to sign a long-term deal, if Anaheim wasn't going to be their first choice. I find it unlikely that both of them would have changed their mind since.

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01-07-2013, 01:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
I could care less what they tell the media, it's because they told Bobby Ryan they planned to stay long term that makes me hopeful. That doesn't make it a sure thing, but I don't think they would say that to Bobby Ryan before he was going to sign a long-term deal, if Anaheim wasn't going to be their first choice. I find it unlikely that both of them would have changed their mind since.
I feel good about the Ducks chances to sign both. But what they told Bobby is close to 3 years old. That's a long time. They could easily see things differently today.

Personally I'm more than pissed at how lousy this team has been the last two years. Not that it was all RC's fault, but it's a new beginning with BB and either could feel differently than they did 2 1/2 years ago.

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01-07-2013, 12:50 PM
  #69
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It's kind of hard to say how much Getzlaf and Perry are "worth."

On one hand, the cap is going down so salaries should go down. On the other hand, cap hits for high tier players were artificially low with the retirement type contracts. So it's hard to use precedent and try to recalibrate.

Ignoring all that, I'd say about high 7s seems like market value.

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01-07-2013, 02:26 PM
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Doesn't the new CBA not allow an increase in salary of more than 35% when a player signs a new contract? or am I reading that wrong?

Edit: never mind. That is the variance of salary within the contract cannot exceed 35%... My bad

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01-07-2013, 05:04 PM
  #71
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It indeed is very difficult go put a fair value on them, because we don't have many comparables. The vast majority of those big deals in the old CBA only were handed out by teams having a lot of cash, but they only gave them so many actual dollars as they were able to reduce the cap number. Those methods are very limited now. In other words: we knew that there would have been a ton of teams giving Getzlaf/Perry $8M salary a year, but it's anyone's guess how many teams will give them a $8M cap hit. I'd be surprised if it really took that much for them to stick around, and I would even go as far as saying that matching stops being a no-brainer at that type of number.

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01-07-2013, 05:38 PM
  #72
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It indeed is very difficult go put a fair value on them, because we don't have many comparables. The vast majority of those big deals in the old CBA only were handed out by teams having a lot of cash, but they only gave them so many actual dollars as they were able to reduce the cap number. Those methods are very limited now. In other words: we knew that there would have been a ton of teams giving Getzlaf/Perry $8M salary a year, but it's anyone's guess how many teams will give them a $8M cap hit. I'd be surprised if it really took that much for them to stick around, and I would even go as far as saying that matching stops being a no-brainer at that type of number.
Kovalchuk and Hossa would be the only decent comparisons IMO. IIRC, both were around the deadline and were impending UFA's.

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01-07-2013, 06:03 PM
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Kovalchuk and Hossa would be the only decent comparisons IMO. IIRC, both were around the deadline and were impending UFA's.
In terms of return in a trade, yeah, those two would fit, although I'd expect a tad more value for either, and I'd expect us to look for a bit of a differently designed package. But yeah, the benchmarks for trade-returns probably won't change a lot. The lack of comparables I meant was in terms of what kind of contract they'll get on the market.

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01-07-2013, 09:29 PM
  #74
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Yeah I kind of derailed the discussion into salary.

Which actually would probably make a good discussion thread. Future contract/salary/etc rather than just rental trades.

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01-07-2013, 09:40 PM
  #75
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Yeah I kind of derailed the discussion into salary.

Which actually would probably make a good discussion thread. Future contract/salary/etc rather than just rental trades.
Yes, it would. Under the new CBA there are no guidelines or precedent for what is a cheap, fair, or over the top deal. But BM better be figuring all that out right about now.

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