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Old
01-17-2013, 04:17 AM
  #476
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Originally Posted by Oil Gauge View Post
Isn't the Cap set at $64.3M next season? And the next???
It's set at 64.3M next year, but I think it changes with revenue after that.

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01-17-2013, 05:58 AM
  #477
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Because he is an asset to this years team. Him and Belanger are the best options they have for 3/4th line centers.



If you read my post it would be obvious that when I said "some of them are rough guesses and some of them will be different players", that that was directly in reference to Khabibulin amongst a few others.

Sure we can't be overpaying mediocure players, but try signing a 2nd line RW who can set up Yakupov all night long and a #1 Dman for much less than $9Mil.

Stop looking at the names so closely and look at the numbers, its going to get tight.

My 4th line average cap hit: $1,050,000
My 3rd line average cap hit: $1,833,333 or With Horcoff $3,166,667
My 2nd line average cap hit: $4,925,000
My 1st line average cap hit: $5,258,333

Are you arguing that they should buy out horcoff? cause it sounds like it.
Just a small point. You may want to check your numbers on Petry from 2014 onward. I doubt you will ge him for $250K.

I actually think that your numbers show that the Oilers cap situation is in decent shape. But I also think that they do show why a buyout for Horcoff is more likely than many of us might have thought 6 months ago.

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01-17-2013, 09:13 AM
  #478
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
It's set at 64.3M next year, but I think it changes with revenue after that.
I believe it is 64.3 M for this and next year. The average cap rise based on previous CBA revenue increase per year would be about 5% per annum. However, this season, there is an artificial ceiling of about 70-72M (going over the cap of 64.3M will not be penalized). This would cause chaos for GMs and players for teams to meet league cap this year if not for the special stipulation by the NHL.

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01-17-2013, 12:33 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by Oil Gauge View Post
I guess that's a risk you have to take. Unless you want someone like Lander playing 4th line center?
I'd rather not take the risk unless they find a way to trade a draft pick to get a serviceable 3rd line center. Maybe you can pick up Tim Connolly if he gets bought out or pick him up on waivers since his contract is due to expire. It's not that I don't think Horcoff is useful because he's a great 3rd line center who makes this team better. But if he gets injured we're basically screwed for the cap next year.

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Hell of an injury if it lasts for 2 years.
It doesn't have to last for 2 years, just last into next year where we'd be over the cap if Horcoff stays on the team.

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01-17-2013, 12:41 PM
  #480
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It doesn't have to last for 2 years, just last into next year where we'd be over the cap if Horcoff stays on the team.
They can use a buyout this summer or next. Horcoff is a completely non-physical player who is unlikely to be injured in both years.

If the Oilers have any intention of buying him out, they will get their chance.

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01-17-2013, 01:02 PM
  #481
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Do people really think it would look good and do good for the team morale to buyout the captain of the team a few days before your first game?

I really see no advantages to buying him out now. Re-evaluate this summer.

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01-17-2013, 01:13 PM
  #482
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Originally Posted by OilerNut View Post
Do people really think it would look good and do good for the team morale to buyout the captain of the team a few days before your first game?

I really see no advantages to buying him out now. Re-evaluate this summer.
It looks as though that's the team's plan and you have a point about the optics of the situation for sure. I'm only advocating it because it's an available option and we're over the cap next season if he gets injured and we can't buy him out this summer. I'm just afraid of being over the cap next year because we didn't take an opportunity to buy out an albatross contract when we had the chance and the player was healthy.

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01-17-2013, 01:16 PM
  #483
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I don't think there is much advantage to buying out Horcoff right now as opposed to the summertime. The cap savings would be exactly the same.

And I would rather have our 3rd/4th line centres to be Horcoff and Belanger versus Belanger and Lander/Vandevelde.

If horcoff was to be bought out, we would need find someone to replace his minutes on the PK and PP. Belanger can't replace his minutes on the PK because he's already on the PK. And Belanger, sad to say, is EVEN WORSE offensively than Horcoff is.

thanks Oilgauge for putting up the contracts in such a readable fashion.

I think even $1.75 is a little high on a backup goaltender. Most backup goaltenders are desperate to find an organization where they can get starts in the NHL and I would guess, we can cheapen out on the contract.

I think that we can also cheapen out on a fourth line centre for the same reason. So I think its possible to avoid a max cap situation next year. Despite that, I think buying out Horcoff during the summer should be given every thought by the Oilers organization.

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01-17-2013, 01:44 PM
  #484
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Originally Posted by OilerNut View Post
Do people really think it would look good and do good for the team morale to buyout the captain of the team a few days before your first game?

I really see no advantages to buying him out now. Re-evaluate this summer.
More than optics though, I just think the team sees him as an important player for this team and they aren't even close to being in cap trouble.

Buying him out this year doesn't save them any cap space (which they don't need to begin with) and it makes the on-ice product worse. There's just no upside to buying him out at all, even without taking the optics into account. The same could be said about next year's Oilers as well.

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01-17-2013, 03:27 PM
  #485
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Originally Posted by OilerNut View Post
Do people really think it would look good and do good for the team morale to buyout the captain of the team a few days before your first game?

I really see no advantages to buying him out now. Re-evaluate this summer.
You're right there is no advantage to doing it now. At least take this shortened season to see where he is at because one wild card that still remains to be see is what kind of player Shawn Horcoff is now in a reduced role. Althought we all called him a 3rd line center last year he was still the team leader in TOI.

Once his ice time gets reduced I'm curious to see if it actually helps him or if he doesn't excel.

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01-17-2013, 05:50 PM
  #486
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Since everyone, besides Oilguage, keeps missing the point I'm trying to make I'll ask my question again.

What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?

Oilguage said that's a risk the Oilers brass seems willing to take. Does everyone else agree that rolling the dice on whether or not Horcoff gets injured this season is the right thing to do?

IMO it's not the best move. I recognize we currently have no suitable replacement for Horcoff in the system right now. But lots of players are currently being bought out or placed on waivers. If we throw Horcoff on waivers and buy him out right now we can grab a waiver wire pick up (Tim Connolly is pretty much the only choice) and his contract ends this season. That way both Horcoff's contract and Connolly's contract are done at the end of this season. We can afford the cap space this year (next year we can't) and still find a suitable replacement for Horcoff on the 3rd line. Worst comes to worst, you try to find a team who will take a draft pick or a prospect for a 3rd line center.

This whole line of reasoning is designed to cut Horcoff loose and not face the possibility of being stuck with his contract after this season should he get injured.

One other thing, I'd also pick up Leland Irving or Henrik Karlsson on waivers too. Not because I think they're anything special, but because they're ready to be at least a back up at the NHL level and as a bonus, it screws over Calgary.

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01-17-2013, 06:09 PM
  #487
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?
There's a very good chance the Oilers weren't gonig to buyout Horcoff's contract next summer anyway. I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but the Oilers won't be over the $64.3M cap next year even with Horcoff on the books.

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01-17-2013, 06:23 PM
  #488
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
There's a very good chance the Oilers weren't gonig to buyout Horcoff's contract next summer anyway. I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but the Oilers won't be over the $64.3M cap next year even with Horcoff on the books.
I get my numbers from NHLnumbers.com

We have $48.45M committed to 14 contracts next season including Horcoff. We would need to re-sign Gagner, Hartikainen and Paajarvi up front. On the back end we need to re-sign Whitney (or a replacement), Smid, Fistric and another goalie. There's another 12 minor league and junior contracts of guys who may graduate next year but depending on how many and how good they do, I wouldn't rely on this to give us cap relief.

With $16M to play around with we need to fill 9 spots. I can see Gagner, Smid and Paajarvi costing us $8M between the 3 of them. If the roster doesn't undergo some kind of change giving us cap relief, are you really that confident we'll have the cap space to get better WITHOUT buying out Horcoff? I sure don't.


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01-17-2013, 06:39 PM
  #489
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
Since everyone, besides Oilguage, keeps missing the point I'm trying to make I'll ask my question again.

What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?

Oilguage said that's a risk the Oilers brass seems willing to take. Does everyone else agree that rolling the dice on whether or not Horcoff gets injured this season is the right thing to do?

IMO it's not the best move. I recognize we currently have no suitable replacement for Horcoff in the system right now. But lots of players are currently being bought out or placed on waivers. If we throw Horcoff on waivers and buy him out right now we can grab a waiver wire pick up (Tim Connolly is pretty much the only choice) and his contract ends this season. That way both Horcoff's contract and Connolly's contract are done at the end of this season. We can afford the cap space this year (next year we can't) and still find a suitable replacement for Horcoff on the 3rd line. Worst comes to worst, you try to find a team who will take a draft pick or a prospect for a 3rd line center.

This whole line of reasoning is designed to cut Horcoff loose and not face the possibility of being stuck with his contract after this season should he get injured.

One other thing, I'd also pick up Leland Irving or Henrik Karlsson on waivers too. Not because I think they're anything special, but because they're ready to be at least a back up at the NHL level and as a bonus, it screws over Calgary.
What do you do if any player under contract gets injured?

Why limit it to Horcoff? An injured player isnt helping you any.

Your whole line of thought is crap in my opinion. Without Horcoff eating up the hard minutes some other putz would have your unreasoning hatred.

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01-17-2013, 06:45 PM
  #490
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Originally Posted by AM View Post
What do you do if any player under contract gets injured?

Why limit it to Horcoff? An injured player isnt helping you any.

Your whole line of thought is crap in my opinion. Without Horcoff eating up the hard minutes some other putz would have your unreasoning hatred.
"some other putz" doesn't eat up $5.5M in cap space till 2015 while playing on the 3rd line genius. Please try to use your head, I know it must be hard sometimes, but at least try.

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01-17-2013, 07:33 PM
  #491
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"some other putz" doesn't eat up $5.5M in cap space till 2015 while playing on the 3rd line genius. Please try to use your head, I know it must be hard sometimes, but at least try.
Ok, answer me this, why do a huge succession of NHL coaches decide to play Horcoff?

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01-17-2013, 09:42 PM
  #492
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Ok, answer me this, why do a huge succession of NHL coaches decide to play Horcoff?
Well in the simplest terms.....we don't have anyone else.

Center depth has been a weakness on the Oilers for years. When we signed Horcoff to a 7 year $37.5M contract extension the Oilers brass hoped he'd turn into a #1 center. They certainly paid him like one and boy were they wrong. Whether it was MacTavish, Quinn, or Renney there wasn't another player to fill the role. When we got Gagner, we hoped he'd turn into a #1 C and he hasn't. Finally we drafted RNH who's going to be the #1 C we've lacked since the departure of Doug Weight. Furthermore, you can't have a $5.5M player riding the bench or up in the press box either. They HAD to play him.

Now you mentioned that Horcoff plays hard minutes and you're totally right. But again, what other choice do we have? Gagner is a smurf who isn't up to the task physically and RNH was a rookie who had to be sheltered. I certainly don't think it was a coincidence that Horcoff ended the season a -23 because he was in over his head against more skilled competition and he was on a terrible team on top of that.

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01-17-2013, 10:32 PM
  #493
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
Since everyone, besides Oilguage, keeps missing the point I'm trying to make I'll ask my question again.

What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?

Oilguage said that's a risk the Oilers brass seems willing to take. Does everyone else agree that rolling the dice on whether or not Horcoff gets injured this season is the right thing to do?

IMO it's not the best move. I recognize we currently have no suitable replacement for Horcoff in the system right now. But lots of players are currently being bought out or placed on waivers. If we throw Horcoff on waivers and buy him out right now we can grab a waiver wire pick up (Tim Connolly is pretty much the only choice) and his contract ends this season. That way both Horcoff's contract and Connolly's contract are done at the end of this season. We can afford the cap space this year (next year we can't) and still find a suitable replacement for Horcoff on the 3rd line. Worst comes to worst, you try to find a team who will take a draft pick or a prospect for a 3rd line center.

This whole line of reasoning is designed to cut Horcoff loose and not face the possibility of being stuck with his contract after this season should he get injured.

One other thing, I'd also pick up Leland Irving or Henrik Karlsson on waivers too. Not because I think they're anything special, but because they're ready to be at least a back up at the NHL level and as a bonus, it screws over Calgary.
Good post, I said this the other day and many posters on here had a hard time understanding. Glad there's other posters who actually look at what could happen. Especially in a shortened season where they'll be averaging 4 games a week.

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01-17-2013, 10:39 PM
  #494
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You're right there is no advantage to doing it now. At least take this shortened season to see where he is at because one wild card that still remains to be see is what kind of player Shawn Horcoff is now in a reduced role. Althought we all called him a 3rd line center last year he was still the team leader in TOI.

Once his ice time gets reduced I'm curious to see if it actually helps him or if he doesn't excel.
Dont kid yourself. He is still on the 1st unit PP, 1st unit PK and will probably be the top average TOI/G for forwards again this year.

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01-17-2013, 10:41 PM
  #495
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Lombardi was just picked up for a 4th round pick. A healthy Lombardi is a better player than Horcoff.

The way people talk about Horcoff being totally irreplaceable is amusing.

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01-17-2013, 11:00 PM
  #496
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Lombardi was just picked up for a 4th round pick. A healthy Lombardi is a better player than Horcoff.

The way people talk about Horcoff being totally irreplaceable is amusing.
Yeah, he's easily replacable, the cult of Horcoff is still strong in this city.

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Good post, I said this the other day and many posters on here had a hard time understanding. Glad there's other posters who actually look at what could happen. Especially in a shortened season where they'll be averaging 4 games a week.
The Oilers simply aren't going to use an accelerated buyout on him and pay 48 games of a full cap hit for a player to play on another team. They just reaffirmed him as captain, and are ready to go into the season with him on the roster, injury risk or not - it's not happening.

Not to mention with this management group, it's up in the air if they'll use a buyout on Horcoff over the next two years at all, no matter how much sense it makes.

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01-17-2013, 11:19 PM
  #497
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
Well in the simplest terms.....we don't have anyone else.

Center depth has been a weakness on the Oilers for years. When we signed Horcoff to a 7 year $37.5M contract extension the Oilers brass hoped he'd turn into a #1 center. They certainly paid him like one and boy were they wrong. Whether it was MacTavish, Quinn, or Renney there wasn't another player to fill the role. When we got Gagner, we hoped he'd turn into a #1 C and he hasn't. Finally we drafted RNH who's going to be the #1 C we've lacked since the departure of Doug Weight. Furthermore, you can't have a $5.5M player riding the bench or up in the press box either. They HAD to play him.

Now you mentioned that Horcoff plays hard minutes and you're totally right. But again, what other choice do we have? Gagner is a smurf who isn't up to the task physically and RNH was a rookie who had to be sheltered. I certainly don't think it was a coincidence that Horcoff ended the season a -23 because he was in over his head against more skilled competition and he was on a terrible team on top of that.
You could hope your teams captain has a bounce back season. And its a possibility with a more skilled team.

No one player is going to be able to take the team on their shoulders.

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01-18-2013, 05:48 AM
  #498
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
Since everyone, besides Oilguage, keeps missing the point I'm trying to make I'll ask my question again.

What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?

Oilguage said that's a risk the Oilers brass seems willing to take. Does everyone else agree that rolling the dice on whether or not Horcoff gets injured this season is the right thing to do?

IMO it's not the best move. I recognize we currently have no suitable replacement for Horcoff in the system right now. But lots of players are currently being bought out or placed on waivers. If we throw Horcoff on waivers and buy him out right now we can grab a waiver wire pick up (Tim Connolly is pretty much the only choice) and his contract ends this season. That way both Horcoff's contract and Connolly's contract are done at the end of this season. We can afford the cap space this year (next year we can't) and still find a suitable replacement for Horcoff on the 3rd line. Worst comes to worst, you try to find a team who will take a draft pick or a prospect for a 3rd line center.

This whole line of reasoning is designed to cut Horcoff loose and not face the possibility of being stuck with his contract after this season should he get injured.

One other thing, I'd also pick up Leland Irving or Henrik Karlsson on waivers too. Not because I think they're anything special, but because they're ready to be at least a back up at the NHL level and as a bonus, it screws over Calgary.
They will not be over the cap if he is not bought out next summer. The numbers that Oilgauge posted includes a substantial amount of bonuses. They have the full bonus cushion to work with.

There is also the fact that we don't even know what next year's roster might be yet, so there is still plenty of time for making moves.

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01-18-2013, 07:21 AM
  #499
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according to cap geek the Oilers will have $15m in cap space for next year. pretty much middle of the road when it comes to space.

http://capgeek.com/payrolls/?charts_year=2013

There are a lot of teams who won't be able to spend much at all next year when you look at their current salary spend compared to the cap.

Chicago $4.8m space 4 players to sign.
Philidelphia $5.6m space 4 players to sign.
Boston $7m space 5 players to sign
Tampa $7.4m space 6 players to sign
Montreal $8m space 5 players to sign
Vancouver $8.9m space 8 players to sign

That is surely going to lower the money going to players quite a bit going into free agency.

Some teams have a lot of space (6 teams with over $30m) but without checking their key RFAs and UFAs it's hard to judge how they will spend it.

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01-18-2013, 08:50 AM
  #500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
Since everyone, besides Oilguage, keeps missing the point I'm trying to make I'll ask my question again.

What do you do if Horcoff gets injured during this season and we can't buy him out until summer 2014? Does everyone realize we'll be over the cap if Horcoff isn't bought out THIS summer?

Oilguage said that's a risk the Oilers brass seems willing to take. Does everyone else agree that rolling the dice on whether or not Horcoff gets injured this season is the right thing to do?

IMO it's not the best move. I recognize we currently have no suitable replacement for Horcoff in the system right now. But lots of players are currently being bought out or placed on waivers. If we throw Horcoff on waivers and buy him out right now we can grab a waiver wire pick up (Tim Connolly is pretty much the only choice) and his contract ends this season. That way both Horcoff's contract and Connolly's contract are done at the end of this season. We can afford the cap space this year (next year we can't) and still find a suitable replacement for Horcoff on the 3rd line. Worst comes to worst, you try to find a team who will take a draft pick or a prospect for a 3rd line center.

This whole line of reasoning is designed to cut Horcoff loose and not face the possibility of being stuck with his contract after this season should he get injured.

One other thing, I'd also pick up Leland Irving or Henrik Karlsson on waivers too. Not because I think they're anything special, but because they're ready to be at least a back up at the NHL level and as a bonus, it screws over Calgary.
Suck it up and traded an injured player along with a draft pick. Pick up part of his salary is also an option. Also if the player is that injured LTIR becomes an option.

Need to realize that you buy him out right now it's 8mil in real cash that Katz has to pony up. Not exactly chump change.

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