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Who do the Oilers buyout? (If anyone)

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01-03-2013, 11:34 AM
  #151
Gord
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Yeah but there are doubts the Oilers would exercise this as a chance to buyout Horcoff.
you're right. I doubt lowe and tambo would abandon him.

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01-03-2013, 11:36 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Gord View Post
you're right. I doubt lowe and tambo would abandon him.
I can understand them maybe not exercising their right to buy out a 2nd contract but if Horcoff isn't bought out it would be a monumental mistake.

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01-03-2013, 11:40 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
I think the only way they buyout Horcoff is if they need the cap space and they think they have a better option at 3C, not including Belanger. Belanger is a 4C at best if he plays like last year.
And Horcoff is a 4C at best if he plays like he has the last 3 years.

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01-03-2013, 11:41 AM
  #154
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Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
I think the only way they buyout Horcoff is if they need the cap space and they think they have a better option at 3C, not including Belanger. Belanger is a 4C at best if he plays like last year.

So they need to either acquire someone through free agency or have someone take a big leap in develop this year (i.e. Lander).
I'm sure we can find a #3 to replace Horcoff. This is Shawn Horcoff, not some sort of all-star 3rd liner.

We should also keep in mind there could be guys available that are currently under contract. Boston has 25 centers, does a Kelly or Peverley become an option? How about Paul Gaustad who was a major mistake in NSH at 3.25mil?

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01-03-2013, 11:56 AM
  #155
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Imagine a world where we have the opportunity to buy out Horcoff's contract and choose not to.

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01-03-2013, 12:00 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
I'm not sure how the new CBA will work, but the players are going to be taking a pay cut to get to that 50/50 sharing. So that would be around 12% of their salaries, then looking at NYI and Dallas and may be Phoenix, next year they will have to be adding salary to get to the minimum. You also have to account that the 5.5M cap hit of Horcoffs and his actual salary of 7M over the next 2 years could save some of these owners 4M actual in salaries. If I'm a owner and I have a team that is rebuilding and my finances are not the best, like in Dallas, Phoenix, NYI and couple of other teams, I would take on a contract with a high cap hit and lower actual salary to save money.
We do not know what the CBA will look like. But it is highly unlikely that there is a rolol back on the face value of existing contracts. This would be a deal breaker for the NHLPA and the NHL has already said it would not ask for this.

None of these teams need to take on Horcoff's salary to make the floor. As such they would only claim him on waivers as a pure hockey move. At that point the issue would be his value at $4M per year. If he was FA right now would you want the Oilers to pick him up at $4M and $3M even excluding cap considerations.

As I have said before, until recent;y I would have said that there was 0% chance of the Oilers buying him out. But if the cap does come in in the low $60M's I think they may take advantage of the opportunity. The issue for me is not really the 2013-2014 season but possibly the 2014-2015 season. It is possible that the lockout hits the NHl hard and that the cap may not rise that much in the first few years.

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01-03-2013, 12:28 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
What exactly is it that needs to be replaced? Keep in mind that in pretty much every other team in the league, 3rd line players don't play over 20 minutes/game.

You know who would be good as a 3C? Someone like Brodziak...
Neither does Horcoff. His ATOI hasn't been 20 minutes or over since 2008-2009.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...horcosh01.html

Last year, Horcoff played the third most even strength TOI amongst Oiler centres. As for what needs to be replaced is replacing his minutes on the special teams - he played the most PK minutes amongst any Oiler forward. Eric Belanger you say? Well, he is already #2 - you need SOMEBODY ELSE to play the PK. I'm not suggesting it can't be done, I'm suggesting that Eric Belanger is not a replacement for Shawn Horcoff on the PK, otherwise you need to replace Belanger's minutes on the PK then.

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01-03-2013, 12:32 PM
  #158
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Would we really be that worse off if we played Belanger and Vande Velde and/or Lander?

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01-03-2013, 12:49 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
No - not really. Used to be, but not really anymore. He hasn't been over 50% in 3 years.
True, but before Belanger arrived, Horcoff has been our best faceoff guy since 2007 (amongst those taking more than 200 faceoffs per season).

Faceoff wins are not just individual based. Having sizeable, experienced wingers who win physical battles also help your faceoff percentage. The Oilers have been young and shrimpy for years.

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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
Used to be. But -53 the last 3 years.
Its always about context. I know IATL sees it as excuses but there's a difference between getting a -1 when you're playing against the oppositions best players and getting a -1 when you're playing against the oppositions fourth line.

That being said. Horcoff was a team worst -23 last year, terrible by any token.

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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
With 20 minutes/night, top PP minutes, playing with the best players? Pathetic production considering the opportunities.
Wait a sec - as I noted earlier, Horcoff is not playing 20 minutes a night. He is third for EV minutes amongst Oiler centres, tops for PK minutes.

As for playing with the best players - do you really consider Ryan Smyth and Eric Belanger to be the Oilers best players? Because that's who his linemates were last season.

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01-03-2013, 12:50 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
And Horcoff is a 4C at best if he plays like he has the last 3 years.
Actually no, Eric Belanger played worse last year than Horcoff. You know the same Eric Belanger who most people say should replace Horcoff.

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01-03-2013, 12:55 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
I'm sure we can find a #3 to replace Horcoff. This is Shawn Horcoff, not some sort of all-star 3rd liner.

We should also keep in mind there could be guys available that are currently under contract. Boston has 25 centers, does a Kelly or Peverley become an option? How about Paul Gaustad who was a major mistake in NSH at 3.25mil?
Whoa... hold up

Shawn Horcoff is an elite 3rd line center!

If he wasn't so tired all the time from taking so many faceoffs, he'd be in the conversation as best 3rd line center of all time...

But yeah, Gaustad would be nice if he can still play at a decent level.

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01-03-2013, 12:56 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Neither does Horcoff. His ATOI hasn't been 20 minutes or over since 2008-2009.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...horcosh01.html
Sorry - 19:35/game last year.

Over the last 7 years: 20:18/game. 3 years over 20 minutes, and years of 19:59, 19:26, and 19:35. 38 times last year he played 20 or more minutes.

Not sure you needed to nitpick on that one.

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01-03-2013, 12:57 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
As I have said before, until recent;y I would have said that there was 0% chance of the Oilers buying him out. But if the cap does come in in the low $60M's I think they may take advantage of the opportunity. The issue for me is not really the 2013-2014 season but possibly the 2014-2015 season. It is possible that the lockout hits the NHl hard and that the cap may not rise that much in the first few years.
Agreed, I think the Oilers should buy out Horcoff based purely on the 2014/15 season contract considerations.

I'm not arguing with Hoogar based on whether I think Horcoff shouldn't be bought out - I think Horcoff SHOULD BE bought out. I'm arguing on the misinformation that is being put out there. There's enough actual reason to criticize Horcoff than making stuff up.

Belanger can replace Horcoff on the EV lines. But the Oilers need to find a fourth line centre who can take PK minutes since Belanger is already doing the second most PK minutes. I'm not convinced that Lander can do the job. Maybe Vandevelde, but I would prefer a veteran instead.

Mark my words - If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, they need a strong PK. Throwing a rookie like Lander or Vandevelde to play against the oppositions BEST players in a short handed situation is not really the best way to do it.

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01-03-2013, 12:59 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Actually no, Eric Belanger played worse last year than Horcoff. You know the same Eric Belanger who most people say should replace Horcoff.
Except being paid like a first line center and playing like a 3rd line center is worse than a 3rd line center playing like a 4th line center.

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01-03-2013, 01:00 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
As for playing with the best players - do you really consider Ryan Smyth and Eric Belanger to be the Oilers best players? Because that's who his linemates were last season.
Sorry - might have added one too many commas there. On the PP with the best players.

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01-03-2013, 01:02 PM
  #166
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But the Oilers need to find a fourth line centre who can take PK minutes .
This shouldn't be hard.

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01-03-2013, 01:03 PM
  #167
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Would we really be that worse off if we played Belanger and Vande Velde and/or Lander?
it would be worse for sure but maybe not 5M (10% of your cap) worse.

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01-03-2013, 01:05 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Agreed, I think the Oilers should buy out Horcoff based purely on the 2014/15 season contract considerations.

I'm not arguing with Hoogar based on whether I think Horcoff shouldn't be bought out - I think Horcoff SHOULD BE bought out. I'm arguing on the misinformation that is being put out there. There's enough actual reason to criticize Horcoff than making stuff up.

Belanger can replace Horcoff on the EV lines. But the Oilers need to find a fourth line centre who can take PK minutes since Belanger is already doing the second most PK minutes. I'm not convinced that Lander can do the job. Maybe Vandevelde, but I would prefer a veteran instead.

Mark my words - If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, they need a strong PK. Throwing a rookie like Lander or Vandevelde to play against the oppositions BEST players in a short handed situation is not really the best way to do it.
I wasn't making stuff up - it's not like I said someone with an avg TOI of 12 minutes was playing 20 minutes/game. His avg last year was 19:35 with 38 games over 20 minutes. Only 5 games with less than 16 minutes.

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01-03-2013, 01:07 PM
  #169
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All I see when I watch Horcoff is him waving his stick at the opposition, doing fly bys, slamming on the brakes or peeling off in order to not hit anyone, and whiffing on one timers. I will open a bottle of champagne once that anchor is off the team.

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01-03-2013, 01:08 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
it would be worse for sure but maybe not 5M (10% of your cap) worse.
Exactly. If we're really 2 years away from seriously competing, as everyone seems to think, why not free up more cap room, not for this year, but the year after?

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01-03-2013, 01:20 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by Hoogaar23 View Post
All I see when I watch Horcoff is him waving his stick at the opposition, doing fly bys, slamming on the brakes or peeling off in order to not hit anyone, and whiffing on one timers. I will open a bottle of champagne once that anchor is off the team.
I'll beer bong 6 westies if he gets bought out.

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01-03-2013, 01:22 PM
  #172
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I'll beer bong 6 westies if he gets bought out.
I've got 6 sitting right here Good call.

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01-03-2013, 01:46 PM
  #173
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I dunno, what metrics do you need? He is pretty good at faceoffs, responsible defensively, can skate decently well and is the captain. He can even chip in some points. I don't see how he isn't decent for a 3rd liner, he's just been overpaid and overplayed.
He is none of those things. He is a millstone around the team's neck. If management is serious about icing a winning lineup or taking appropriate steps to do so then Horcoff is long gone.

If they take a pass, then the jig is up and this team is destined to dwell in the basement indefinitely. New York Islanders/Toronto Maple Leafs 2.0.

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01-03-2013, 01:48 PM
  #174
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He is none of those things. He is a millstone around the team's neck. If management is serious about icing a winning lineup or taking appropriate steps to do so then Horcoff is long gone.

If they take a pass, then the jig is up and this team is destined to dwell in the basement indefinitely. New York Islanders/Toronto Maple Leafs 2.0.
Well perhaps this is a slight over exaggeration. I do Agree. Horc is a good 3rd line C, however a good 3rd line C goes for 2-3 mill, not 5.5. If horc was only under contract for a year or maybe 2 then you could justify keeping him. However, given he is locked up for 3 more years, you have to buy him out. If you don't it sends the message we are happy with mediocre teams and not willing to do what it takes to be elite. Simple as that. He has to be bought out.

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01-03-2013, 01:55 PM
  #175
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Imagine a world where we have the opportunity to buy out Horcoff's contract and choose not to.
Yeah, that would leave me speechless. It really is beyond comprehension.

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