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Boston's Three Picks

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Old
02-24-2016, 07:26 AM
  #1
1865
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Boston's Three Picks

About 9 months on, does Boston's decision to pick relatively-off board for the 13th, 14th and 15th picks look like it will bear fruit? Are they developing in a way to suggest they were ranked a little too low and the Bruins got it right?

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02-24-2016, 07:38 AM
  #2
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Originally Posted by 1865 View Post
About 9 months on, does Boston's decision to pick relatively-off board for the 13th, 14th and 15th picks look like it will bear fruit? Are they developing in a way to suggest they were ranked a little too low and the Bruins got it right?
I personally was a big fan of going off the board to take Senyshyn and I think he is proving that gamble worthy. He was tabbed as one of the best goal scorers in the draft when he was taken and he is showing that. I think it was a shrewd pick.

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Old
02-24-2016, 07:40 AM
  #3
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senyshyn looks good but the other two... i'd rather have chabot and one of connor/white/barzal/beauviller, funny seeing as senyshyn was considered the reach

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02-24-2016, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by brettzz View Post
senyshyn looks good but the other two... i'd rather have chabot and one of connor/white/barzal/beauviller, funny seeing as senyshyn was considered the reach
Yeah, just goes to show how much of a crap shoot it all is.

I still think Zboril has more two way game than Chabot, but it seems like he is going through the motions a bit this year and that is concerning, but I don't think the Bruins regret the pick.

DeBrusk is the disappointing one at this point but, honestly, if Boston hits on 2 of 3 mid first picks I'd take it. It does look like they did very well on the second round picks in Carlo, JFK and Lauzon.

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02-24-2016, 08:20 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1865 View Post
About 9 months on, does Boston's decision to pick relatively-off board for the 13th, 14th and 15th picks look like it will bear fruit? Are they developing in a way to suggest they were ranked a little too low and the Bruins got it right?
Personally I would have taken Barzal but the 3 picks still look good and the outrage over them will prove to be unjustified IMO.

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Old
02-24-2016, 08:20 AM
  #6
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DeBrusk is barely a PPG, if that. Senyshyn was a projected late 1st, but he's been scoring pretty decently this year. Zboril was the only one that was projected to go around when Boston took him, and his game has apparently leveled off. I don't think Boston will regret those picks per se, but given the talent that was still available - Connor, White, Chabot, Barzal, Svechnikov, Konecny, etc. - I think they could have done a lot better with their picks. Hell, they should have taken a high ceiling boom or bust player like Svechnikov to augment 2 "sure thing" prospects. Zboril, Svechnikov, Senyshyn instantly looks and sounds better than what they currently have. Hell, even Zboril, White, Svechnikov looks better than what they currently have.

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02-24-2016, 08:28 AM
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I didn't have a problem with the picks its the guys they picked them over. Id much rather have Chabot, Barzal and Connor.

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02-24-2016, 08:32 AM
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I was happy about the Zboril pick. Incorporating some element of hindsight I don't regret it at the moment. He still has the upside Boston is lacking currently in its D corp.

Was never a fan of Debrusk, but watching him play I think he could be a solid contributor at the NHL level. High floor with relatively limited upside IMO. Hes a player I would have loved to select at 25, but not at 14.

LOVED the Senyshyn pick. Was very young when he was drafted and has shown some incredible talent showing why he was selected at 15. He'll go back to Juniors most likely next year and have a shot at the Canadian team. Love his skillset.

If I could change the picks now I would have gone Barzal, Connor, Senyshyn. We were able to snag Carlo and Lauzon in the 2nd so could have lived without Zboril.

At the time of the draft I think I would have gone Zboril, Barzal/Connor, Senyshyn. Two highly ranked skaters with high upside then the "Sweeney guy" with the 3rd.

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Old
02-24-2016, 08:36 AM
  #9
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Nothing to write home about, stats-wise.

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Old
02-24-2016, 08:47 AM
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They did a great job getting 3 picks from 13-15. If you asked me was it better than having one top 3 to 5 pick in the draft or 3 picks from 13-15. I would have taken the latter in a NY second given the talent that was available in this range.

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:00 AM
  #11
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Question for Bruins fans.

If I was a GM from Arz, Tor, Carolina

And offered my 1st for your 3 picks. Would you have accepted.

For the record I had no problem with the Zboril pick.

But on my rankings.

With Boston's 3 picks. I would have taken Barzal, Connor, Konecny and I had Zboril in there also.

To me having any of the 3 of these prospects is better than having just one of Strome, Marner, or Hanifin.

IMO I think Boston was situated best this draft other than Edmonton to do well this draft.

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:17 AM
  #12
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It's worth noting that they hit an absolute home run with Jesse Gabrielle in the 4th round. Check out this post from the Bruins board from the extremely knowledgable Fonzerelli. When you add in the fact that he's also a pretty effective pest, it's remarkable that he landed where he did:

Fonzerelli

Just to add some meat to those bones, here is the ES/P60 numbers from the WHL from the 2013-14 season, ranking the top 16 year olds (1997);
stats from Kyle Dubas Extraskater.com

2013-14 Even Strength Points per 60 minutes for 16 year old WHL players

1. Nick Merkely - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.8)
2. Jesse Gabrielle - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.2)
3. Tyler Soy - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.2)
4. Matt Barzal - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.1)
5. Brad Morrison - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.1)
6. Jansen Harkins - even-strength-points-per-60 (2)

For perspective, this same year 17 year old Jake DeBrusk had an ES/P60 of 2.1

And here is the ES/P60 numbers from the 2014-15 season, ranking all CS rated first year eligible 17/18 year olds NHL Draft prospects the WHL (1997/late 1996);
stats from Josh Weisbrock's chlstats.com

2014-15 Even Strength Points per 60 minutes for first year NHL Draft eligible CS Rated WHL Players

1.) Gabrielle, Jesse - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.11)
2.) Bittner, Paul - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.98)
3.) Harkins, Jansen - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.94)
4.) Morrison, Brad - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.94)
5.) Soy, Tyler - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.9)
6.) Merkley, Nick - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.83)
7.) Wagner, Austin - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.81)
8.) Sideroff, Deven - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.73)
9.) Gropp, Ryan - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.73)
10) Estephan, Giorgio - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.68)
11) DeBrusk, Jake - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.64)
12) Barzal, Mathew - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.63)
13) Karnaukhov, Pavel - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.57)
14) Gawdin, Glenn - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.48)
15) Musil, Adam - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.25)
16) Kolesar, Keegan - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.13)

For this year I don't have a ES/P60 source. My statement comparing Barzal/Gabrielle ice time this season is based off my own eyeball in the games I watch them play. Barzal is often double-shifted and he often plays full 2 minute power plays, or close enough.

Lacking a ES/P60 source, I will list the top fifteen producing 2015 NHL draftees in the WHL this season, here are there even-strength-points-per-game figures
stats from whl.ca

2015-16 Current WHL Season Top 15 Even Strength Points per Game performances for players taken in 2015 NHL Draft

1.) Jesse Gabrielle - 58GP, 27G, 21A, 48pts (.83 ppg)
2.) Matt Barzal - 48GP, 12G, 27A, 39pts (.81 ppg)
3.) Giorgio Estephan - 51GP, 19G, 21A, 40pts (.78 ppg)
4.) Jake DeBrusk - 48GP, 11G, 23A, 34pts (.71 ppg)
5.) Austin Wagner - 55GP, 16G, 23A, 39pts (.71 ppg)
6.) Ivan Provorov - 48GP, 8G, 23A, 31pts (.65 ppg)
7.) Keegan Kolesar - 56GP, 20G, 16A, 36pts (.64 ppg)
8.) Nick Merkley - 43GP, 10G, 17A, 27pts (.63 ppg)
9.) Andrew Nielsen - 58GP, 7G, 29A, 36pts (.62 ppg)
10) Ryan Gropp - 54GP, 18G, 15A, 33pts (.61 ppg)
11) Jansen Harkins - 55GP, 16G, 14A, 30pts (.54 ppg)
12) Brad Morrison - 58GP, 14G, 17A, 31pts (.53 ppg)
13) Deven Sideroff - 49GP, 5G, 21A, 26pts (.53 ppg)
14) Ethan Bear - 57GP, 6G, 19A, 25pts (.44 ppg)
15) Parker Wotherspoon - 56GP, 5G, 19A, 24pts (.43 ppg)

With regards to DeBrusk vs Barzal, I think there definitely was a case to be made for Barzal, but there is also some value to going and getting the players you want. DeBrusk is certainly in the same category of player as Barzal and DeBrusk also "out-performed" Barzal in their draft year, in terms of both even strength production and massively in the goal scoring department. Barzal is enjoying a slightly better D +1 year, but an argument can also be made that he is getting far more ice and opportunity in Seattle than DeBrusk is getting in Red Deer. Either way, I don't see any big red flags with DeBrusk as of yet, although I do respect the differing opinions of others. Two good players here.

In the Gabrielle vs Barzal comparison (or anyone else really), it's just flabbergasting how long he has been at the top of his peer group without recognition. It's not like he is "one of the top" of his peer group or a flash in the pan, i.e., "having a good year". His body of work in terms of sheer performance, from the get-go, has been nothing but the best of the best in his peer group. When I read so called "experts" talk about the "breakout season" he is having, I just shake my head. Where have they been for the past 3 years? No 1997 player in the WHL has been as consistant. He has always been at the top of his class and what he is doing this year is just a continuation of that. And it doesn't matter where he plays in the lineup or who he plays with. He hasn't been handed great opportunity , ice time, linemates etc., but he finds keeps finding ways to get the job done no matter. Not just getting it done, but getting it done better than any of his peers. And not just on the ice, but off ice as well. All he did at the 2015 NHL combine was finish with 4 top 10 finishes including 3 first place finishes out of 11 events, and those 3 finishes weren't just #1 in 2015, but they were record breaking performances in both strength and stamina. #1 in over 20 years of publicly released combine results. We got this guy in the 4th round? Larseny. Grand Larseny!

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:18 AM
  #13
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Zboril was a better choice than Chabot at the time of the draft. Everyone is making it look like Chabot was the clearly better defenseman at the draft... lol. Just because Chabot is doing better in the post-draft season, doesn't mean he will be better at pro as well.

Only change I would have made would be drafting Barzal over one of the forwards. Missing on him was just a stupid, stupid move.

Also, do we really need this kind of thread every month or so? Give the guys time, come back in few years when you can already see what their future actually looks like.

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:30 AM
  #14
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I know hindsight's 20/20 in these type of threads. But they are kind of fun for all of us draftniks that love playing Armchair GM's.

If I were a GM and had Boston's 3 picks. I would have been salivating at the table at how the draft evolved.

My 3 to 18 draft list past Mc-Eichel prior to the draft.

3. Hanifin
4. Strome
5. Barzal *
6. Provorov
7. Crouse
8. Zacha
9. Marner
10. Werenski
11. Konecny *
12. Connor *
13. Rantanen
14. Meier
15. Chabot *
16. Merkley
17. Zaboril *
18. White *

I would have been very happy with any combination of Barzal, Konecny, Connor, Chabot, Zboril, or White from 13-15.

Just incredible value in this grouping.

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:38 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sutekii View Post
It's worth noting that they hit an absolute home run with Jesse Gabrielle in the 4th round. Check out this post from the Bruins board from the extremely knowledgable Fonzerelli. When you add in the fact that he's also a pretty effective pest, it's remarkable that he landed where he did:

Fonzerelli

Just to add some meat to those bones, here is the ES/P60 numbers from the WHL from the 2013-14 season, ranking the top 16 year olds (1997);
stats from Kyle Dubas Extraskater.com

2013-14 Even Strength Points per 60 minutes for 16 year old WHL players

1. Nick Merkely - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.8)
2. Jesse Gabrielle - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.2)
3. Tyler Soy - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.2)
4. Matt Barzal - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.1)
5. Brad Morrison - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.1)
6. Jansen Harkins - even-strength-points-per-60 (2)

For perspective, this same year 17 year old Jake DeBrusk had an ES/P60 of 2.1

And here is the ES/P60 numbers from the 2014-15 season, ranking all CS rated first year eligible 17/18 year olds NHL Draft prospects the WHL (1997/late 1996);
stats from Josh Weisbrock's chlstats.com

2014-15 Even Strength Points per 60 minutes for first year NHL Draft eligible CS Rated WHL Players

1.) Gabrielle, Jesse - even-strength-points-per-60 (2.11)
2.) Bittner, Paul - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.98)
3.) Harkins, Jansen - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.94)
4.) Morrison, Brad - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.94)
5.) Soy, Tyler - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.9)
6.) Merkley, Nick - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.83)
7.) Wagner, Austin - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.81)
8.) Sideroff, Deven - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.73)
9.) Gropp, Ryan - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.73)
10) Estephan, Giorgio - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.68)
11) DeBrusk, Jake - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.64)
12) Barzal, Mathew - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.63)
13) Karnaukhov, Pavel - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.57)
14) Gawdin, Glenn - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.48)
15) Musil, Adam - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.25)
16) Kolesar, Keegan - even-strength-points-per-60 (1.13)

For this year I don't have a ES/P60 source. My statement comparing Barzal/Gabrielle ice time this season is based off my own eyeball in the games I watch them play. Barzal is often double-shifted and he often plays full 2 minute power plays, or close enough.

Lacking a ES/P60 source, I will list the top fifteen producing 2015 NHL draftees in the WHL this season, here are there even-strength-points-per-game figures
stats from whl.ca

2015-16 Current WHL Season Top 15 Even Strength Points per Game performances for players taken in 2015 NHL Draft

1.) Jesse Gabrielle - 58GP, 27G, 21A, 48pts (.83 ppg)
2.) Matt Barzal - 48GP, 12G, 27A, 39pts (.81 ppg)
3.) Giorgio Estephan - 51GP, 19G, 21A, 40pts (.78 ppg)
4.) Jake DeBrusk - 48GP, 11G, 23A, 34pts (.71 ppg)
5.) Austin Wagner - 55GP, 16G, 23A, 39pts (.71 ppg)
6.) Ivan Provorov - 48GP, 8G, 23A, 31pts (.65 ppg)
7.) Keegan Kolesar - 56GP, 20G, 16A, 36pts (.64 ppg)
8.) Nick Merkley - 43GP, 10G, 17A, 27pts (.63 ppg)
9.) Andrew Nielsen - 58GP, 7G, 29A, 36pts (.62 ppg)
10) Ryan Gropp - 54GP, 18G, 15A, 33pts (.61 ppg)
11) Jansen Harkins - 55GP, 16G, 14A, 30pts (.54 ppg)
12) Brad Morrison - 58GP, 14G, 17A, 31pts (.53 ppg)
13) Deven Sideroff - 49GP, 5G, 21A, 26pts (.53 ppg)
14) Ethan Bear - 57GP, 6G, 19A, 25pts (.44 ppg)
15) Parker Wotherspoon - 56GP, 5G, 19A, 24pts (.43 ppg)

With regards to DeBrusk vs Barzal, I think there definitely was a case to be made for Barzal, but there is also some value to going and getting the players you want. DeBrusk is certainly in the same category of player as Barzal and DeBrusk also "out-performed" Barzal in their draft year, in terms of both even strength production and massively in the goal scoring department. Barzal is enjoying a slightly better D +1 year, but an argument can also be made that he is getting far more ice and opportunity in Seattle than DeBrusk is getting in Red Deer. Either way, I don't see any big red flags with DeBrusk as of yet, although I do respect the differing opinions of others. Two good players here.

In the Gabrielle vs Barzal comparison (or anyone else really), it's just flabbergasting how long he has been at the top of his peer group without recognition. It's not like he is "one of the top" of his peer group or a flash in the pan, i.e., "having a good year". His body of work in terms of sheer performance, from the get-go, has been nothing but the best of the best in his peer group. When I read so called "experts" talk about the "breakout season" he is having, I just shake my head. Where have they been for the past 3 years? No 1997 player in the WHL has been as consistant. He has always been at the top of his class and what he is doing this year is just a continuation of that. And it doesn't matter where he plays in the lineup or who he plays with. He hasn't been handed great opportunity , ice time, linemates etc., but he finds keeps finding ways to get the job done no matter. Not just getting it done, but getting it done better than any of his peers. And not just on the ice, but off ice as well. All he did at the 2015 NHL combine was finish with 4 top 10 finishes including 3 first place finishes out of 11 events, and those 3 finishes weren't just #1 in 2015, but they were record breaking performances in both strength and stamina. #1 in over 20 years of publicly released combine results. We got this guy in the 4th round? Larseny. Grand Larseny!
Very interesting analysis... Thanks

I'm interested in where you got TOI for WHL players?

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Old
02-24-2016, 09:46 AM
  #16
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Well Connor and Konecny look like sure-fire quality NHLers already, Barzal's stuck has went up a lot, White has been great and Chabot has been much, much better than his teammate Zboril.

Like others have said, I don't think they were THAT bad, but they certainly coould have done better.

The truth is, if you look back in time most teams who had multiple first-round picks either busted them all or only had one decent pick (I'm talking outside of the top-3 or so here). So in the middle if the 1st round here if Boston gets 2 NHLers they would have done well. If they even get 1 of those guys to become a star they will have done great to be honest.

So let's wait and see.

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02-24-2016, 09:59 AM
  #17
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They made 3 absolutely horrendous picks back-to-back-to-back.

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Old
02-24-2016, 10:03 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Winter Soldier View Post
I know hindsight's 20/20 in these type of threads. But they are kind of fun for all of us draftniks that love playing Armchair GM's.

If I were a GM and had Boston's 3 picks. I would have been salivating at the table at how the draft evolved.

My 3 to 18 draft list past Mc-Eichel prior to the draft.

3. Hanifin
4. Strome
5. Barzal *
6. Provorov
7. Crouse
8. Zacha
9. Marner
10. Werenski
11. Konecny *
12. Connor *
13. Rantanen
14. Meier
15. Chabot *
16. Merkley
17. Zaboril *
18. White *

I would have been very happy with any combination of Barzal, Konecny, Connor, Chabot, Zboril, or White from 13-15.

Just incredible value in this grouping.
Every time I see your list it makes me happy we got Provorov and Konecny. Hope you are right!!

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02-24-2016, 10:16 AM
  #19
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Every time I see your list it makes me happy we got Provorov and Konecny. Hope you are right!!
I absolutely loved Provorov prior to the draft. If I were more bold I should have had him at #3.

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02-24-2016, 10:21 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Winter Soldier View Post
I know hindsight's 20/20 in these type of threads. But they are kind of fun for all of us draftniks that love playing Armchair GM's.

If I were a GM and had Boston's 3 picks. I would have been salivating at the table at how the draft evolved.

My 3 to 18 draft list past Mc-Eichel prior to the draft.

3. Hanifin
4. Strome
5. Barzal *
6. Provorov
7. Crouse
8. Zacha
9. Marner
10. Werenski
11. Konecny *
12. Connor *
13. Rantanen
14. Meier
15. Chabot *
16. Merkley
17. Zaboril *
18. White *

I would have been very happy with any combination of Barzal, Konecny, Connor, Chabot, Zboril, or White from 13-15.

Just incredible value in this grouping.
Agree

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02-24-2016, 10:42 AM
  #21
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Well, at least it's not more knee-jerk, ill-informed bashing of Boston and its drafting (well, save for one post so far).

Zboril was a no-brainer. Boston's biggest need was on defense and he was the best one available at #13. Senyshyn is turning out to be a very shrewd pick. He's having a great year in the OHL, much improving on his stats from the previous season. As for Debrusk, the jury is out. In hindsight, I think that Boston should have gone with Zboril, Connor and Senyshyn.

And, yes, the Gabrielle pick was a home run. Those stats show him out-performing the supposedly magical Barzal. Boston also aced its second-round picks last year (JF Karlsson, Lauzon and Carlo). A very strong draft for the team in 2015.

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Old
02-24-2016, 10:49 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Estlin View Post
Well, at least it's not more knee-jerk, ill-informed bashing of Boston and its drafting (well, save for one post so far).

Zboril was a no-brainer. Boston's biggest need was on defense and he was the best one available at #13. Senyshyn is turning out to be a very shrewd pick. He's having a great year in the OHL, much improving on his stats from the previous season. As for Debrusk, the jury is out. In hindsight, I think that Boston should have gone with Zboril, Connor and Senyshyn.

And, yes, the Gabrielle pick was a home run. Those stats show him out-performing the supposedly magical Barzal. Boston also aced its second-round picks last year (JF Karlsson, Lauzon and Carlo). A very strong draft for the team in 2015.
While the focus is on those first 3 picks, it looks like an outstanding draft by Boston so far in terms of depth and NHL possible or likely players.

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02-24-2016, 11:02 AM
  #23
tony d
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Boston really dropped the ball on those picks. They should have went with Barzal, Chabot and Konecny.

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02-24-2016, 11:28 AM
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I think any combination of Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Konecny, and White would have been better than the picks they made. Having said that, it's still very early and things can change.

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02-24-2016, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony d View Post
Boston really dropped the ball on those picks. They should have went with Barzal, Chabot and Konecny.
Oh, come on. How can you or anyone say that at this point? Let's re-visit the 2015 draft picks in two or three years, when some of these kids will be playing in the NHL.

Also, it's "should have gone", not "should have went".

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