HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk
Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Luongo: The Neverending Story

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
01-05-2013, 03:31 PM
  #226
Bleach Clean
Registered User
 
Bleach Clean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 14,013
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
You have a link?

Saw it on sportsnet 10 min ago. Check their video library later, or the lockout thread on the main board.

Bleach Clean is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 03:35 PM
  #227
Bleach Clean
Registered User
 
Bleach Clean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 14,013
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalsrock View Post
Luongo for Bozak, Kulemin, and Finn

Deal or no deal?

I'd do it. But then we'd have to flip Kulemin in a year because we wouldn't be able to retain him. Still would do it though.

Bleach Clean is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 03:37 PM
  #228
marty111
Registered User
 
marty111's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,423
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Saw it on sportsnet 10 min ago. Check their video library later, or the lockout thread on the main board.
Thanks!

marty111 is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 03:43 PM
  #229
Cogburn
Trixie Hobbitses
 
Cogburn's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,567
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
You're right hoping for a top pick via lottery or a free agent spree is not a good way to build a team and that's actually part of my point. Yes trading for Luongo gives us a short term boost towards the playoffs and I'm all for that, but now we're looking at not only filling our major forward hole with the "hope and a prayer" scenario (a top end center - only one piece but the hardest one to get) but now a top line winger as well. Maybe I just don't have the confidence in JVR that others have but he has a lot to prove in my mind.

Basically I was using those "hope and prayer" scenarios to show when trading for Luongo makes more sense. If we did get a top pick or sign a top player, it makes a heck of a lot more sense because that's a major jump forward and goaltending becomes our last great weakness (still other holes to fill but much more minor ones). If JVR was to develop into a top line winger than that's another scenario where it would make more sense but he's got a ways to go IMO.

This is why I maintain if the season were to start tomorrow, trading for Luongo only makes sense if he comes at a discount price in the form of picks and prospects (because the Leafs have a lot of decent prospects, just not a lot of high end forward prospects) and/or less impactful forwards (i.e. MacArthur, Connolly, Frattin, Kulemin - although I cringe at Kulemin because he was looking very impactful until last season).
Well the hope and prayer route isn't the only way to go, and I never meant to make things sound as dire as that, but Lu doesn't hurt the chances for Perry/Getzlaf/Weiss/whomever. I won't say 100% it helps, if anything, but cap implications aside, it won't hurt.

I hear you and understand what you're saying, but we just can't afford to move a piece like that without getting what we construe as value back. Not to say the players listed do not have value, just not as much to us, as a team that most of their talents are redundant. Frattin and Kulemin aside, most of those pieces aren't more then throw ins to our team, and even the missing elements Kuli and Frattin bring can be filled internally.

If this is the scenario we're in, I reiterate that we might not be the ideal trading partners.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
Florida is a 2 hour flight, not 4.

And it's simple. If Florida is Lu's #1 then location is at the top of his list. Toronto in that regard is 10x more appealing then Columbus, Edmonton of SJ.

It's simple, that's all I'm saying. Toronto, in regards to location would be #2 on his list and that's by a quite a large margin.

Luongo also has A LOT of control over where he goes. It just depends on if he chooses to use it.
I will address the other points together with LEAFS FAN 4 EVER's post below, but what criteria give Toronto an advantage over the other, non-Florida destinations?

Proximity (which I argue) being one, what are we basing this on? (Again, not trying to provokate, but I am curious)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER View Post
At the most it's about a 2.5 hour flight from Toronto to any major city in Florida.

Luongo said himself the Panthers are his #1 choice, but Vancouver might get the best deal from Toronto and they would tell him that.
Seems I overestimated flight time, I thought it was 3.5-4, my mistake there gentlemen.

But my point remains valid, it is not Florida, it is nearer Florida than Vancouver and Edmonton. Columbus and Chicago, as examples, aren't too far from Toronto, and are infact, further south. Outside of Montreal, all of the Eastern Conference and all of the Central Division in the West are as close or closer, so Toronto isn't special in that particular regard.

Toronto may be high on Lu's list, but being relatively closer to his preferred destination won't be an overriding factor, unless we are talking Carolina or Tampa Bay close (or Atlanta, if they come back), I really don't think it regesters to him. Furthermore, if proximity to Florida is a big deal, outside of the Pacific and Northwest division(minus Dallas, I think), every other team short of Montreal has the same advantage, or better.

All the points you make about Toronto being the premiere destination apply to other locations. All the points you've used to tear down Edmonton or Columbus (minus proximity for Edmonton, which I don't think is even a factor if it's not a 2 hour drive or less) can be applied to Toronto as well. It's not that Toronto is a bad destination for him, it's that it's not much better then even the weakest of other teams that could be interested.

Florida is the first choice for Luongo, but that doesn't mean he won't disregard all other offers, he hasn't shot down a trade to Columbus or Edmonton, and seemed to embrace Toronto and Chicago in his interviews, in addition to listing Florida as his number one choice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
I'd go Gardiner, Franson and a 2014 first for Schneider... I think.

Lupul - Bozak - Kessel
Van Reimsdyk - Grabovski - Kadri
MacArthur - McClement - Kulemin
...

Phaneuf - Gunnarsson
Liles - ?
...

Schneider
Reimer
Flip Franson for someone else, he would be entirely redundant with Gardiner coming our way. I like that you're willing to pull out the big guns for Schneider though, we didn't even have to twist your arm Marty

Cogburn is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 03:49 PM
  #230
Cogburn
Trixie Hobbitses
 
Cogburn's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,567
vCash: 50
As for the 63 million dollar cap, before it even starts, that's either Ballard, or Malhotra/Raymond moved for futures, or if Kesler is still injured, no moves yet. If it's true, we're safe.

Cogburn is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 03:58 PM
  #231
Bleach Clean
Registered User
 
Bleach Clean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 14,013
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
As for the 63 million dollar cap, before it even starts, that's either Ballard, or Malhotra/Raymond moved for futures, or if Kesler is still injured, no moves yet. If it's true, we're safe.


Malhotra and Raymond are walking anyways IMO. So they're good.


Edit: Assuming Ballard is jettisoned.


Edit 2: That's next year that is. This year they're safe of course.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 01-05-2013 at 04:05 PM.
Bleach Clean is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 04:20 PM
  #232
Seatoo
Never Stop Poasting
 
Seatoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: The Interior of BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,709
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
Just incase people (Pepper) missed it, the link above details the out clauses in the Luongo deal.

Seatoo is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 04:29 PM
  #233
Pepper
Registered User
 
Pepper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 14,251
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
Just incase people (Pepper) missed it, the link above details the out clauses in the Luongo deal.
Just incase you missed it, here's my reply:

Those are not out-clauses, those are having better chances to jettison Luongo.

I wish people would stop talking about out-clauses because the previous CBA (and most likely the next) don't have such things.

Sending Luongo to minors is not an out-clause, especially in the new CBA.

Pepper is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 04:40 PM
  #234
SufferingCatFan
Registered User
 
SufferingCatFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: fort lauderdale
Country: United States
Posts: 1,685
vCash: 500
Bleach Clean:

Please note that, once again, I avoid making any personal attacks upon you and attempt to engage in a dialogue based upon facts. You asked for goalie stats. Here are some comparing Lou( now 33) to Vokoun (now 36) in terms of goals against/ save percentage and salary over the past 3 seasons--admittedly not perfect or complete, but informative.

2009-10
Lou 2.34/9.20% $7.5 million
Vokoun 2.45/9.29% $5.7 million

2010-11
Lou 2.57/9.13% $10 million
Vokoun 2.55/9.25% $6.3 million

2011-12
Lou 2.41/9.19 $6.7 million
Vokoun 2.51/9.17 $1.5 million

Please note that I agree that Lou is better and 3 years younger, but their selected stats are not that different in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Yet, as a UFA in the off season in an open market, Vokoun signed a one year contract for 2011-12 at $1.5 million, and a 2 year contract at $2 million per season for 2012-2014.

SufferingCatFan is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 04:56 PM
  #235
Seatoo
Never Stop Poasting
 
Seatoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: The Interior of BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,709
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pepper View Post
Just incase you missed it, here's my reply:

Those are not out-clauses, those are having better chances to jettison Luongo.

I wish people would stop talking about out-clauses because the previous CBA (and most likely the next) don't have such things.

Sending Luongo to minors is not an out-clause, especially in the new CBA.
Did you even bother to read it? In year 6 he can be traded, in year 8 he can be traded, after that his NTC is gone. I'm not talking about waiving him or anything like that. There are legit out clauses on top of the possibilities of early retirement etc

Seatoo is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:02 PM
  #236
Bleach Clean
Registered User
 
Bleach Clean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 14,013
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
Bleach Clean:

Please note that, once again, I avoid making any personal attacks upon you and attempt to engage in a dialogue based upon facts. You asked for goalie stats. Here are some comparing Lou( now 33) to Vokoun (now 36) in terms of goals against/ save percentage and salary over the past 3 seasons--admittedly not perfect or complete, but informative.

2009-10
Lou 2.34/9.20% $7.5 million
Vokoun 2.45/9.29% $5.7 million

2010-11
Lou 2.57/9.13% $10 million
Vokoun 2.55/9.25% $6.3 million

2011-12
Lou 2.41/9.19 $6.7 million
Vokoun 2.51/9.17 $1.5 million

Please note that I agree that Lou is better and 3 years younger, but their selected stats are not that different in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Yet, as a UFA in the off season in an open market, Vokoun signed a one year contract for 2011-12 at $1.5 million, and a 2 year contract at $2 million per season for 2012-2014.



SCF, you have compelled my responses against your posts because of a spurious initial comment. Please note that as well.


I have questioned your "facts" in the last post too. No response that?



The 3 year sample is nice, but over the course of their careers, it's not close. Luongo, through many scrutinizing eyes on the Canucks board itself, is recognized as a high end goaltender... For a _very_ long time as you know. If you want to get into a 10+ year breakdown of the two goalies, and how then compare them to the field, I guess I can be convinced of breaking it down with you, but I'd rather not. I've seen the stats, over and over again, so I'm pretty entrenched in my opinion on his "status".


Can you tell me, if the difference between Vokoun and Luongo is marginal, why would Gillis offer him the lifetime contract he did at age 30? His strength has been contracts. Many Canucks are on sweetheart deals. So why this major discrepancy if he could get a Vokoun for 2m dollars in FA?

Bleach Clean is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:09 PM
  #237
marty111
Registered User
 
marty111's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,423
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Flip Franson for someone else, he would be entirely redundant with Gardiner coming our way. I like that you're willing to pull out the big guns for Schneider though, we didn't even have to twist your arm Marty

marty111 is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:11 PM
  #238
kthsn
Registered User
 
kthsn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,505
vCash: 1785
Quote:
Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
2009-10
Lou 2.57/9.13% $7.5 million
Vokoun 2.55/9.25% $5.7 million

2010-11
Lou 2.11/9.28% $10 million
Vokoun 2.55/9.22% $6.3 million

2011-12
Lou 2.41/9.19 $6.7 million
Vokoun 2.51/9.17 $1.5 million
Your stats were incorrect, you replaced Luongo's Vezina nominated season with the worst season he's ever had. Vokoun's stats were also incorrect. Corrected they show a regression over his past 4 seasons for Vokoun.

Honest mistake from the looks of it but it heavily skews the comparison.

kthsn is online now  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:13 PM
  #239
marty111
Registered User
 
marty111's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,423
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
Did you even bother to read it? In year 6 he can be traded, in year 8 he can be traded, after that his NTC is gone. I'm not talking about waiving him or anything like that. There are legit out clauses on top of the possibilities of early retirement etc
First trade clause is completely up to Luongo. Fairly irrelevent.

Second is after 7 years, unlikely anyone will want him for anything worth while. Much of it will be determined by what the league looks like in almost a decade from now. Not promising.

marty111 is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:34 PM
  #240
Pepper
Registered User
 
Pepper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 14,251
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
Did you even bother to read it? In year 6 he can be traded, in year 8 he can be traded, after that his NTC is gone. I'm not talking about waiving him or anything like that. There are legit out clauses on top of the possibilities of early retirement etc
Huh? Did you even bother to read my reply?

In year 6 Luongo can ask the team to trade him. Canucks have agreed to accomodate his request.

1) Just because Canucks have agreed to do that, doesn't mean any future team of Luongo has to agree to that. CBA doesn't give players the option to write that to their contracts so it's up to the teams whether they want to oblige to Luongo's request.

2) Luongo asking/demanding a trade in year 6 doesn't mean his team can trade him, some other team has to be willing to trade for Luongo.

3) Luongo asking for a trade in year 6 doesn't have anything to do with the team wanting to get rid of him.

4) Luongo's NTC expiring after year 8 doesn't mean anything if no team is willing to trade for him (scroll back to point 2.)

Pepper is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:38 PM
  #241
Pepper
Registered User
 
Pepper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 14,251
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Luongo, through many scrutinizing eyes on the Canucks board itself, is recognized as a high end goaltender... For a _very_ long time as you know.
I'm speechless. How can you argue against that?

Pepper is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:41 PM
  #242
SufferingCatFan
Registered User
 
SufferingCatFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: fort lauderdale
Country: United States
Posts: 1,685
vCash: 500
Yes, I can give you my opinion as to why Gillis offered Lou a 13 year contract at age 30.
Not blessed with the gift of 20-20 hindsight, Gillis took a gamble just like every GM does in handing out a long term, guaranteed contract structured to be cap friendly using the then permissible back-diving mechansm based upon a number of hockey-related and financial predictions, assumptions and techniques.

On the hockey side, my guess is that Gillian believed that Lou would be a durable franchise goalie through age 38 or so. On the financial side, that equated to paying Lou the equivalent of $8 million per season, representing a $500,000 raise over the $7.5 million he was paid in the last year of his then existing contract, which equates to $64 million. It was then "present valued" and restructured from an 8 to a 13 year contract to reduce it s cap hit to $5.3 million over 13 years. I do not know the assumed interest rate used to present value the contract, but assume that it was around 5% using both an increased front end of $10,000,000 the first year of the contract and an additional 5 year term.

Does that answer your question?

SufferingCatFan is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:43 PM
  #243
SufferingCatFan
Registered User
 
SufferingCatFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: fort lauderdale
Country: United States
Posts: 1,685
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
Your stats were incorrect, you replaced Luongo's Vezina nominated season with the worst season he's ever had. Vokoun's stats were also incorrect. Corrected they show a regression over his past 4 seasons for Vokoun.

Honest mistake from the looks of it but it heavily skews the comparison.
Sorry for the error. My bad

SufferingCatFan is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 05:58 PM
  #244
kack zassian
Registered User
 
kack zassian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,459
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
Bleach Clean:

Please note that, once again, I avoid making any personal attacks upon you and attempt to engage in a dialogue based upon facts. You asked for goalie stats. Here are some comparing Lou( now 33) to Vokoun (now 36) in terms of goals against/ save percentage and salary over the past 3 seasons--admittedly not perfect or complete, but informative.

2009-10
Lou 2.34/9.20% $7.5 million
Vokoun 2.45/9.29% $5.7 million

2010-11
Lou 2.57/9.13% $10 million
Vokoun 2.55/9.25% $6.3 million

2011-12
Lou 2.41/9.19 $6.7 million
Vokoun 2.51/9.17 $1.5 million

Please note that I agree that Lou is better and 3 years younger, but their selected stats are not that different in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Yet, as a UFA in the off season in an open market, Vokoun signed a one year contract for 2011-12 at $1.5 million, and a 2 year contract at $2 million per season for 2012-2014.
Luongo aside:

Does anyone else not think Vokoun has been the most underrated goalie ever throughout his career?

Played on terrible Nashville/Florida teams, but was always top of the league.
His agent reallyshould have been fired.

kack zassian is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:14 PM
  #245
Vankiller Whale
Win it for AV
 
Vankiller Whale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 22,793
vCash: 5100
Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Luongo aside:

Does anyone else not think Vokoun has been the most underrated goalie ever throughout his career?

Played on terrible Nashville/Florida teams, but was always top of the league.
His agent reallyshould have been fired.
Yes.

Vankiller Whale is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:18 PM
  #246
kack zassian
Registered User
 
kack zassian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,459
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Yes.
The last 10 years hes hovered around 920 % playing on terrible teams.

If he played for TO/Edm the last 10 years he would be regarded as one of the games elites in recent memory

kack zassian is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:22 PM
  #247
Vankiller Whale
Win it for AV
 
Vankiller Whale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 22,793
vCash: 5100
Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
The last 10 years hes hovered around 920 % playing on terrible teams.

If he played for TO/Edm the last 10 years he would be regarded as one of the games elites in recent memory
In case I was misunderstood, I was agreeing with you.

Vankiller Whale is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:23 PM
  #248
Bleach Clean
Registered User
 
Bleach Clean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 14,013
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pepper View Post
I'm speechless. How can you argue against that?


At this point, is a full statistical analysis going to convince you? My point was that Canucks fans have already dissected Luongo's career ad nauseum. They know the score. If you want to get educated, there are a myriad of Luongo/goalie stat threads from the Canucks board that might help you out.



Quote:
Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
Yes, I can give you my opinion as to why Gillis offered Lou a 13 year contract at age 30.
Not blessed with the gift of 20-20 hindsight, Gillis took a gamble just like every GM does in handing out a long term, guaranteed contract structured to be cap friendly using the then permissible back-diving mechansm based upon a number of hockey-related and financial predictions, assumptions and techniques.

On the hockey side, my guess is that Gillian believed that Lou would be a durable franchise goalie through age 38 or so. On the financial side, that equated to paying Lou the equivalent of $8 million per season, representing a $500,000 raise over the $7.5 million he was paid in the last year of his then existing contract, which equates to $64 million. It was then "present valued" and restructured from an 8 to a 13 year contract to reduce it s cap hit to $5.3 million over 13 years. I do not know the assumed interest rate used to present value the contract, but assume that it was around 5% using both an increased front end of $10,000,000 the first year of the contract and an additional 5 year term.

Does that answer your question?


No, it doesn't. It outlines salary details, but it doesn't address the question. You say he took a gamble - Why did he gamble on Luongo and not the Sedins? Further, why did he choose to give Luongo a 5.3m cap/7.14m salary hit contract when he could have gone the "cheap goalie" route? Why the need to pay this goalie so much more than the rest?

Bleach Clean is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:26 PM
  #249
kack zassian
Registered User
 
kack zassian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,459
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
In case I was misunderstood, I was agreeing with you.
I know, just elaborating on my earlier point

kack zassian is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 06:29 PM
  #250
Spazmatic Dan
The Leafs Are Good
 
Spazmatic Dan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Chatham, ON
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,819
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Well the hope and prayer route isn't the only way to go, and I never meant to make things sound as dire as that, but Lu doesn't hurt the chances for Perry/Getzlaf/Weiss/whomever. I won't say 100% it helps, if anything, but cap implications aside, it won't hurt.

I hear you and understand what you're saying, but we just can't afford to move a piece like that without getting what we construe as value back. Not to say the players listed do not have value, just not as much to us, as a team that most of their talents are redundant. Frattin and Kulemin aside, most of those pieces aren't more then throw ins to our team, and even the missing elements Kuli and Frattin bring can be filled internally.

If this is the scenario we're in, I reiterate that we might not be the ideal trading partners.
Agreed. However, that is my assessment. Burke's assessment could be completely different.

If Burke believes that Van Reimsdyk can replace Lupul and/or that he can acquire the key pieces he needs via other methods, he could absolutely make Lupul available. It could change very quickly and all of a sudden Luongo makes a ton more sense.

I just don't see it as likely but I'm a bit pessimistic.

Guess we'll find out if the season ever starts up.

Spazmatic Dan is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:45 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.