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National Hockey League Talk Discuss NHL players, teams, games, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

How big is the difference between 48 games and 82 games?

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Old
01-06-2013, 10:56 AM
  #1
Finnish your Czech
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How big is the difference between 48 games and 82 games?

I see a lot of people say "anything can happen in a short season", and that winning the cup in a shortened season is a pretty big taint. While I agree that hot and cold streaks have a more significant effect on teams' final standings, is it really that big?

These are the stats after 721 games last season. If the upcoming NHL season is 48 games per team, then there would be 720 games in total.









I see that 15/16 playoff teams after 721 games are playoff teams after the end of the season. I also searched for the 2010-11 season, and I noticed that 14/16 teams kept their playoff position after 722 games (Atlanta and Dallas dropped down).

http://dropyourgloves.com/Games/AnyDateStandings.aspx

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01-06-2013, 11:06 AM
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TravisUlrich
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Might be a 50-game season.

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01-06-2013, 11:13 AM
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RANDOMH3RO
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It won't make a difference in the end, the best team will still be the one winning the cup.

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01-06-2013, 11:25 AM
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KingsFan7824
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I would think the mental difference between an 82 game season starting in October, and a 48-ish game season starting in January, is a big one. With 82 games, teams may ease their way into things, and then ramp things up. A short season is a sprint from day 1.

Looking at the 93-94 and 94-95 seasons, 14 of the 16 teams that made the playoffs in 93-94 made it again in 94-95.

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01-06-2013, 11:27 AM
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Jaymond Flurrie
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OP, how about taking the last 48 games of each team? That's what they're going to play now. They cancelled the start of the season, not the end of the season.

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01-06-2013, 11:27 AM
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The match ups may be different, but I'm confident the top 8 teams still get in. At the end of the day the best team will still make it through 4 rounds of the playoffs.

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01-06-2013, 11:29 AM
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Mondello
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34 games.

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01-06-2013, 11:30 AM
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01-06-2013, 11:30 AM
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Jaymond Flurrie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
The match ups may be different, but I'm confident the top 8 teams still get in. At the end of the day the best team will still make it through 4 rounds of the playoffs.
I don't think that it is the best team that wins the Stanley Cup. I mean, sure, it does take skill, but luck is way more important. Have a couple of badly timed injuries against your team might throw your team easily out, but if your team is injured at a critical time, does that make your team bad? I mean, "the best" can mean luckiest, but in my opinion it shouldn't go so.

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01-06-2013, 11:30 AM
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To me the long hard road is what makes a Stanley Cup championship special.

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01-06-2013, 11:45 AM
  #11
Lars The GOAT Eller
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generally it will still be accurate, however a smaller sample size allows for higher error.

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01-06-2013, 11:47 AM
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Dellstrom
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Every game is almost double as important.

Division games are going to be very heated.

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Old
01-06-2013, 11:52 AM
  #13
KingsFan7824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymond Flurrie View Post
I don't think that it is the best team that wins the Stanley Cup. I mean, sure, it does take skill, but luck is way more important. Have a couple of badly timed injuries against your team might throw your team easily out, but if your team is injured at a critical time, does that make your team bad? I mean, "the best" can mean luckiest, but in my opinion it shouldn't go so.
That's why they don't label anything as vague as the best. The team that has the most points wins the President's trophy during the reason season. The team that wins 16 games first wins the Cup in the playoffs. Best is subjective. That's why there's so much debate about most individual trophies. Those are voted on.

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01-06-2013, 11:53 AM
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So in other words the Leafs are making the playoffs??

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01-06-2013, 11:54 AM
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Think we're going to see a great season. The entire thing is essentially one amped up final stretch to the playoffs.

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01-06-2013, 11:55 AM
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Have they announced ahow long the schedule will be or any games yet??

Maybe a dumb question but too lazy to look it up now lol

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01-06-2013, 11:58 AM
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Pierre Dagenais
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Have they announced ahow long the schedule will be or any games yet??

Maybe a dumb question but too lazy to look it up now lol
It will be announced this week!

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01-06-2013, 12:08 PM
  #18
Jaymond Flurrie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingsFan7824 View Post
That's why they don't label anything as vague as the best. The team that has the most points wins the President's trophy during the reason season. The team that wins 16 games first wins the Cup in the playoffs. Best is subjective. That's why there's so much debate about most individual trophies. Those are voted on.
I would say to you as a Kings fan, without flaming, that I really don't think Kings was the best team in 2011-12. I mean, in my opinion there were some better teams, but Kings won the Cup because
1) They stayed healthy enough
2) They got a hot streak at the exactly right time

Now note that this is different than saying that "I think they didn't deserve it" or "I think team X should have won it". By the rules Kings did exactly what needed to win the Cup and I'm totally fine with it, I just don't agree that Kings were the best team. The key here is that I really don't have any better system to offer either and even less I think that the best team has to win it.

I'm not actually sure whether "great timing of hot streak" can be assigned to "being best". I really don't think that it was even done on purpose i.e. take a rest for the regular season and then only play in playoffs - did someone say during regular season that "Sure it looks like we totally suck right now, but actually we're not even trying to get anything done right now, we have carefully counted that we are beginning to actually play when then playoff-series demands it"?

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01-06-2013, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymond Flurrie View Post
I would say to you as a Kings fan, without flaming, that I really don't think Kings was the best team in 2011-12. I mean, in my opinion there were some better teams, but Kings won the Cup because
1) They stayed healthy enough
2) They got a hot streak at the exactly right time

Now note that this is different than saying that "I think they didn't deserve it" or "I think team X should have won it". By the rules Kings did exactly what needed to win the Cup and I'm totally fine with it, I just don't agree that Kings were the best team. The key here is that I really don't have any better system to offer either and even less I think that the best team has to win it.

I'm not actually sure whether "great timing of hot streak" can be assigned to "being best". I really don't think that it was even done on purpose i.e. take a rest for the regular season and then only play in playoffs - did someone say during regular season that "Sure it looks like we totally suck right now, but actually we're not even trying to get anything done right now, we have carefully counted that we are beginning to actually play when then playoff-series demands it"?
And yet it doesn't matter. The Cup winner is the Cup winner. I doubt any other team takes solace in feeling they were a better team.

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01-06-2013, 12:37 PM
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Jaymond Flurrie
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And yet it doesn't matter. The Cup winner is the Cup winner. I doubt any other team takes solace in feeling they were a better team.
I agree with this one too. I just still say that Cup winner is not necessarily the best team.

To take this a bit out of NHL context, I really think that in that WJC tournament that ended yesterday Canada was way better than 4th best team. I can't justify that they should have got medal, because the results show what happened, but still I really think that Canada wasn't as bad (i.e. was better) than 4th best.

This also can be turned so that no-one really cares what is the best team. The thing that everybody cares about is who ends up winning it all.

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01-06-2013, 12:49 PM
  #21
KingsFan7824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymond Flurrie View Post
I would say to you as a Kings fan, without flaming, that I really don't think Kings was the best team in 2011-12. I mean, in my opinion there were some better teams, but Kings won the Cup because
1) They stayed healthy enough
2) They got a hot streak at the exactly right time

Now note that this is different than saying that "I think they didn't deserve it" or "I think team X should have won it". By the rules Kings did exactly what needed to win the Cup and I'm totally fine with it, I just don't agree that Kings were the best team. The key here is that I really don't have any better system to offer either and even less I think that the best team has to win it.

I'm not actually sure whether "great timing of hot streak" can be assigned to "being best". I really don't think that it was even done on purpose i.e. take a rest for the regular season and then only play in playoffs - did someone say during regular season that "Sure it looks like we totally suck right now, but actually we're not even trying to get anything done right now, we have carefully counted that we are beginning to actually play when then playoff-series demands it"?
I agree, the word best is subjective. That's why they play the game, and give out a few trophies at the end. That's the only semi-definitive way to figure it out, and it still doesn't define the word best. It's almost a meaningless word.

As a Kings fan, all that matters is that they won a Cup. All they have to be called is Cup champs. Any adjective in front of the word Cup is fine by me

I've lived through injury plagued seasons. Injuries took down Jason Allison, Ziggy Palffy, and Adam Deadmarsh for multiple years. I've lived through losing streaks. A season ending 11 game losing streak in 03-04 when the Kings could've made the playoffs. A meltdown in the second half of the 05-06 season after the Kings were sitting near the top of the standings in the first half. If the Kings got lucky and things broke their way in the 11-12 playoffs on a way to a Cup, I have no problem with that.

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Old
01-06-2013, 12:54 PM
  #22
Fred Taylor
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I don't think there's really as big a difference as one would think, in my mind it's not tainted at all to win a cup in a shortened season. I'm hoping there's a better chance the Leafs make the playoffs, but I realize it might still be tough.

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01-06-2013, 12:57 PM
  #23
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I think it will make a difference, but this sample size is too small it would be helpful to look at the past 5 seasons.

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01-06-2013, 01:05 PM
  #24
JetsAlternate
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Originally Posted by Jaymond Flurrie View Post
OP, how about taking the last 48 games of each team? That's what they're going to play now. They cancelled the start of the season, not the end of the season.
The players aren't going to start the year fatigued from already playing half a season. By studying the final half of the season, you'd have to take into account fatigue and injuries, not to mention assume everyone is starting in mid-season form. The players are beginning their season now, not resuming it.

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01-06-2013, 01:19 PM
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Like the best team wins the Champions League every year.

This is what happens in a knock-out system. At least with hockey there's a best of 7. With the Champions League there are two games (after the group stage) to decide who will advance. Should we hand out the SC after the regular season ? Should we hand out the CL Cup after the group stage for the team with the most points and GF/GA differential ?

I never understand this discussion.

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