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Luongo: Light at the end of the tunnel?

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01-08-2013, 11:34 AM
  #801
frag2
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Both parties would _share_ the cap hit remaining. For example, if Luongo retired at 39, with 3 years left on his deal, the Canucks would have to pay 6m over 3 years, and the leafs roughly the same.



Actually, if my understanding is correct on this, it behooves GMs to constantly trade said player after a certain level of utilization is garnered, so they can all share the penalty amongst themselves. But really, it won't come down to that as he will be LTIR'd near the end anyways, as is prudent to do.
I'm pretty sure it's penalized based on actual salary paid out in term - (cap hit x years of service on team) = savings used as pentaly

I'll see if I can find that article/tweet

edit: found article that has it summed up - http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-pu...7517--nhl.html


Last edited by frag2: 01-08-2013 at 11:40 AM.
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01-08-2013, 11:38 AM
  #802
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NHL teams have these guys called "pro scouts" and these pro scouts would look at Schneider's performances throughout his career (elite at every level) and his mental make-up (one of the most level heads I've ever seen on a goalie) as well as his talent (does not quit, elite leg speed) and then said NHL team would make their decision from there.

What they wouldn't do is say "he hasn't played a whole season yet, pass" because that would be incredibly short-sighted and ignorant.
Again all I am saying is that IMO Schneider is not worth a mega package.
I am not saying that he has not excelled at every level and looks to be the real deal.
He should fetch equal value as to what he has shown.
It is also a fairly safe bet to say that by and large goalies tend to not maintain their elite status as well as players do unless they are named : Roy, Lundqvist, Brodeur, Hall, Esposito, Sawchuck etc ... which does have an effect on these " pro scouts " opinions to some degree.

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01-08-2013, 11:40 AM
  #803
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Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
I'm pretty sure it's penalized based on actual salary paid out in term - (cap hit x years of service on team) = savings used as pentaly

I'll see if I can find that article/tweet

I've read both articles and have discussed this with others.


The friedman article explains it well: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...to-luongo.html


Titled: "The new CBA doesn't hurt Luongo"




Excerpt:


Quote:
"The figure is $2,016,445. The Canucks will get a "cap penalty" at that amount for the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.

As for Toronto, the Maple Leafs will pay Luongo $43,666,000. (I'm not pro-rating this year's lockout-infected salary. Going for the easy math here). The total cap hit for those seven seasons is $37,333,331. The difference is $6,332,669. Divide it by the three unused years in Luongo's contract, and the penalty per season is $2,111,890 -- slightly larger than Vancouver's."

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01-08-2013, 11:40 AM
  #804
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both parties would get dinged as well if Luongo retires early if I read correctly

Say Luongo spent a total of 3 years with the Canucks - they have paid him ~$33 M in actual salary and the cap hit across 3 years = ~$16M, that's a savings of ~$17M.

Let's say he went to the Leafs and plays another 6 before retiring. Actual salary =~$37M. Cap hit =~$32M...savings of ~$5M.

Both parties would get penalized for the savings portion. Vancouver would get ~$17M spread over the 3 remaining years of Luongo's contract; Leafs would be ~$5M.

I got this off of I think Lebrun's blog [or maybe it was Friedman]...I could be wrong but that's what I got from reading all the CBA verbose
Thats how I understand it. Not appealing one bit, and two teams get penalized for one teams error. It is a negative, and needs to be addressed in any transaction including Lou.

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01-08-2013, 11:42 AM
  #805
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There's no baseless speculation in the chain of Luongo threads? Alrighty then... I didn't point to anything specefically, so I don't know why you're inferring I did, but these threads are literally 90% baseless speculation at this point.
There is nothing baseless when discussing the new CBA and its implications to Vancouver and any team aquiring him in a trade. These are facts that are being discussed, nothing baseless about it.

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01-08-2013, 11:43 AM
  #806
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
Thats how I understand it. Not appealing one bit, and two teams get penalized for one teams error. It is a negative, and needs to be addressed in any transaction including Lou.

Even in this explanation, the cap penalty to TOR is 5m spread out over 3 years. That's enough to be heavily compensated for? How about VAN throws in a 7th rounder to seal the deal then?

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01-08-2013, 11:43 AM
  #807
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I doubt the Canucks retain cap-hit _if_ the deal is to a budget team. Nor would the budget team want the cap-hit to be lowered further than it is, they would want it at 5.3m.


I think Luongo gets carried into the season. This will be a long haul for VAN. They have to evaluate the new CBA and everything they can do within it. What's more, they'll want to see how certain things play out in FLA, TBay, WSH, EDM, CHI etc... They should wait.
The budget team doesnt cap that much about the cap hit but they do want the actual salary dollar relief. I dont think you can just keep salary and not cap hit too with the new trade rule. If you can do that (just keep salary or just keep cap hit), it would change things with who will be interested.

But a team like the Panthers who is budget conscious still would care about a lowered cap hit because they will have future young players to re-sign. In a few yrs, they have to re-sign guys like Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Kulikov, and eventually a guy like Bjugstad. So they will be fine with cap hit situation in the future in terms of reaching the floor and beyond (they'll never be a cap ceiling team though).

Yup agreed, I think the earliest Luongo gets traded would be probably the trade deadline in April. I think a few teams like you mentioned will need to see how their goaltending is long term. Another team you may be able to throw in there depending on how their goaltending play is would be Boston. Rask was injured during the lockout in the Czech league (groin injury). If Rask struggles or the injury issues crop up, I could see them interested too. That would give them a good option for bridging the gap until Malcolm Subban.

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01-08-2013, 11:45 AM
  #808
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If you step away from being so emotionally involved in the process you can see just how many people are saying he is going to Tarana.

Millard
Maclean
Mendes
Kuzma
Murph


I doubt all of them could be wrong.
How many people called the Ehrhoff trade with San Jose? The Booth trade? The Ballard trade? The Hodgson trade? I'm not saying he won't go to Toronto (if Toronto had a different GM its the logical destination) but trades Gillis makes usually come out of the blue.

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01-08-2013, 11:46 AM
  #809
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If Vancouver doesn't trade him now [where the recapture is only ~6M], if he plays the third year and then gets traded in off season and he retires early, Vancouver will be hit with ~5M of dead cap space.

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01-08-2013, 11:47 AM
  #810
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How many people called the Ehrhoff trade with San Jose? The Booth trade? The Ballard trade? The Hodgson trade? I'm not saying he won't go to Toronto (if Toronto had a different GM its the logical destination) but trades Gillis makes usually come out of the blue.
Erhoff.
Booth.
Ballard.
Hodgson weren't being interviewed about being traded. It was as much as a surprise to them. Luongo knows he is being traded. He openly talks about the trade. He said he want's to be traded.

Very different situations.

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01-08-2013, 11:51 AM
  #811
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Agreed, and it's TOR. It would be pretty difficult to keep secrets there with the ravenous media just outside the rink. Gotta believe there's something to this smoke.

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01-08-2013, 11:51 AM
  #812
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Even in this explanation, the cap penalty to TOR is 5m spread out over 3 years. That's enough to be heavily compensated for? How about VAN throws in a 7th rounder to seal the deal then?
That is depending on when he retires. That also doesnt factor the 5.3 cap hit he has durring the course of his contract, and some of those years he may not be playing at a high level, and that 5.3 is relegated to the bench as a back up. Another clever way to manage cap, byt sitting 5.3 on the bench, then swallowing a few years of dead cap space, for a bad contract someone else signed. Doesnt matter how much lipstick you put on this pig, it's still a pig.

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01-08-2013, 11:54 AM
  #813
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Agreed, and it's TOR. It would be pretty difficult to keep secrets there with the ravenous media just outside the rink. Gotta believe there's something to this smoke.
Nah....they are just driving up the interest so FLA ups the ante.

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01-08-2013, 11:54 AM
  #814
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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
The budget team doesnt cap that much about the cap hit but they do want the actual salary dollar relief. I dont think you can just keep salary and not cap hit too with the new trade rule. If you can do that (just keep salary or just keep cap hit), it would change things with who will be interested.

But a team like the Panthers who is budget conscious still would care about a lowered cap hit because they will have future young players to re-sign. In a few yrs, they have to re-sign guys like Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Kulikov, and eventually a guy like Bjugstad. So they will be fine with cap hit situation in the future in terms of reaching the floor and beyond (they'll never be a cap ceiling team though).

Yup agreed, I think the earliest Luongo gets traded would be probably the trade deadline in April. I think a few teams like you mentioned will need to see how their goaltending is long term. Another team you may be able to throw in there depending on how their goaltending play is would be Boston. Rask was injured during the lockout in the Czech league (groin injury). If Rask struggles or the injury issues crop up, I could see them interested too. That would give them a good option for bridging the gap until Malcolm Subban.


More or less agreed. FLA will need cap space in the future. It's one of the reasons I think Weiss _may_ be dealt. Although the percentage is more on him re-signing, the fact that they have a lot of young players ready to make a push makes me think his job isn't secure. Especially if he won't negotiate until the offseason.


Boston was rumoured to have interest... that would be.. weird.


If TOR is smart, they do this deal now, before the season starts. Gillis can go either way (I say it's prudent for him to wait). Same thing with Tallon.

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01-08-2013, 11:55 AM
  #815
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Originally Posted by Lundface View Post
How many people called the Ehrhoff trade with San Jose? The Booth trade? The Ballard trade? The Hodgson trade? I'm not saying he won't go to Toronto (if Toronto had a different GM its the logical destination) but trades Gillis makes usually come out of the blue.
And... What 'big trade' talk is TO not involved with?

For every source saying TO is the only option for Luongo, there is another equally reputable one saying that he'll refuse to waive his NTC for them. Or Chicago.

The logical destination has always been Florida. But if Tallon gave up just Olesz for Campbell, he won't be wanting to give up much more for Luongo. And since the Canucks don't have to trade Luongo anytime soon, he'll likely be alternating with Schneider at season start, and possibly for all season.

Tallon needs to decide whether or not he wants to shut the door on Luongo completely. Once he's out, then Luongo's 'wtf happens now?' tweet is accurate.


TOML

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01-08-2013, 11:57 AM
  #816
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Nah....they are just driving up the interest so FLA ups the ante.
Or just playing to the crowd. T.O. has one of the largest hockey bases in the league. They are getting a lot of coverage when mentioning T.O. in any capacity. If they were saying it was FLA or team X then nobody would care outside of those markets.

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01-08-2013, 11:57 AM
  #817
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There is nothing baseless when discussing the new CBA and its implications to Vancouver and any team aquiring him in a trade. These are facts that are being discussed, nothing baseless about it.
When did I bring that up? There's a lot of other topics that could be considered baseless speculation in these threads. Have a look, and you're grabbing at something specefic in your argument that I still have yet to touch on. There is a lot of baseless speculation outside of CBA topics as well as within in them, considering we're getting information trickling down all the time, and it's changing all the time. Until we have dry ink and an explanation of all facets of the CBA, then all comments are baseless speculation.But again, I was not discussing topics related to the CBA at all anyway...

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01-08-2013, 11:58 AM
  #818
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That is depending on when he retires. That also doesnt factor the 5.3 cap hit he has durring the course of his contract, and some of those years he may not be playing at a high level, and that 5.3 is relegated to the bench as a back up. Another clever way to manage cap, byt sitting 5.3 on the bench, then swallowing a few years of dead cap space, for a bad contract someone else signed. Doesnt matter how much lipstick you put on this pig, it's still a pig.


Then Burke shouldn't want any part of him correct? Not even at a discount. Yet he keeps calling...?



Quote:
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Nah....they are just driving up the interest so FLA ups the ante.


Millard and Shannon are driving up the interest? Or Burke is?

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01-08-2013, 12:00 PM
  #819
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Or just playing to the crowd. T.O. has one of the largest hockey bases in the league. They are getting a lot of coverage when mentioning T.O. in any capacity. If they were saying it was FLA or team X then nobody would care outside of those markets.
Still risky when guys like Shannon and others are stating "a deal is done" and sticking by it. I do agree that TO rumours feed the beast though.

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01-08-2013, 12:02 PM
  #820
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Then Burke shouldn't want any part of him correct? Not even at a discount. Yet he keeps calling...?







Millard and Shannon are driving up the interest? Or Burke is?
When was the last time you heard Burke talk about it? And even if that were true, why would Burke want to drive up interest?

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01-08-2013, 12:02 PM
  #821
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More or less agreed. FLA will need cap space in the future. It's one of the reasons I think Weiss _may_ be dealt. Although the percentage is more on him re-signing, the fact that they have a lot of young players ready to make a push makes me think his job isn't secure. Especially if he won't negotiate until the offseason.


Boston was rumoured to have interest... that would be.. weird.


If TOR is smart, they do this deal now, before the season starts. Gillis can go either way (I say it's prudent for him to wait). Same thing with Tallon.
Not really. Gillis has to weigh in on whether its worth having Luongo another season, then trading him and if he retires early, how big of a penalty he will be taking back. I would lol if Luongo retires with 1 year left...that's a pretty big savings/penalty to take in that 1 year...math is ~$17M [Actual salary for 3 years - (3 x caphit)]

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01-08-2013, 12:05 PM
  #822
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And... What 'big trade' talk is TO not involved with?

For every source saying TO is the only option for Luongo, there is another equally reputable one saying that he'll refuse to waive his NTC for them. Or Chicago.

The logical destination has always been Florida. But if Tallon gave up just Olesz for Campbell, he won't be wanting to give up much more for Luongo. And since the Canucks don't have to trade Luongo anytime soon, he'll likely be alternating with Schneider at season start, and possibly for all season.

Tallon needs to decide whether or not he wants to shut the door on Luongo completely. Once he's out, then Luongo's 'wtf happens now?' tweet is accurate.


TOML
There really is no pressure on Tallon to make a decision. He can slow play his hand. All he has to do is show lukewarm interest to keep luongo from changing his mind about accepting a trade to another team until gillis caves.

If luongo caves first it really doesn't hurt the panthers too much. Of all the teams involved, panthers are in the best position.

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01-08-2013, 12:09 PM
  #823
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- In January Leafs fans want no part of Luongo. (The "I heart Optimus Riem" phase)
- In February they'll can't beleive they paid what they did. (The "OMG fire Burke! He gave up Tyler Bozak!!" Phase)
- In April they'll tell Canucks' fans they stole Luongo. (The "wait a minute, this guy doesn't suck at all!" Phase)
- In July there will be threads on the main board that say, "Is Luongo Top 3?" (The "Luongo is officially a Leaf" phase)

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01-08-2013, 12:10 PM
  #824
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Are you sure that $17 million is correct? It seems strange that it would go from 6 million after 2 years (based on EF's article) to $17 million in year 3.

Also, if he doesn't retire until just before the last year of his deal then that's a massive 1 year cap hit.


"Why does Burke keep calling?" Why even say this? No one knows how many discussions have been taken place.

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01-08-2013, 12:12 PM
  #825
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Are you sure that $17 million is correct? It seems strange that it would go from 6 million after 2 years (based on EF's article) to $17 million in year 3.

Also, if he doesn't retire until just before the last year of his deal then that's a massive 1 year cap hit.


"Why does Burke keep calling?" Why even say this? No one knows how many discussions have been taken place.
33M in actual paid. Cap hit of 5.x *3 = ~16. savings of 17

edit: math sucks. i calculated 4years and cap hit of 3...should be ~25 actual. So about 10M in penalty. I stand corrected.

Either way, if he retires with 1 year left, Nucks will get hit big with cap savings recapture penalty


Last edited by frag2: 01-08-2013 at 12:16 PM. Reason: my math sucks
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