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Luongo: Is the light getting brighter?

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Old
01-08-2013, 03:52 PM
  #1
spiny norman
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Luongo: Is the light getting brighter?

Carry on.

Previous thread here.

Continuing from the previous all-encompassing Luongo threads:

-----

Just so everyone is clear, if you get the following in this thread:

Warning = threadban
Infraction = forumban starting at 1 month


-----

I'm keeping a eye on this thread and will continue on the subsequent ones.

This thread is here to allow everyone to debate the merits of the various Luongo proposals that are presented.

All I ask is for everyone to please be respectful and civil to each other, and to refrain from making things personal.

Thank you.

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Old
01-08-2013, 03:54 PM
  #2
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Bozak + 4th

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01-08-2013, 03:55 PM
  #3
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
Actually I would agree, you can't have it both ways.

Getting a team to assume a 5.3M cap hit for a player who will not perform at that cap hit [we all know it will happen but when] and to take a dead space cape hit when he retires for multiple years and saying "see that makes up for the 1.5M cap saving for the 3-5 years he potentially saves the team short term".

I'm sorry but that doesn't equate.
So why is 5 years of saving 1.5 million/per now any worse than losing 3 years of 2 mil per 7 years in the future?(assuming, for arguments sake he plays worth his cap hit in year 6)?

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01-08-2013, 03:55 PM
  #4
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Bozak + 4th
Then flip him for Duchene.

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01-08-2013, 03:56 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
And yet you are saying:



What about the years where Luongo is getting paid 5.3M on the cap but playing below that? [potentially even when in real dollars Luongo is getting paid 6.7M] That's a penalty for those assuming the contract.

Now they have to pay out the previous advantage as well?

Clearly doesn't make this a fair deal.


It's a penalty to a team assuming a contract when a player doesn't play up to his salary/cap-hit? Does this apply to other players that don't perform up their cap-hit/salary? If it's the same, the point is moot.


The team getting him would get a 5-6 year cap advantage, roughly, and a 3-4 year penalty. They are still getting more years at advantage than they are disadvantage. Make sense?

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01-08-2013, 03:57 PM
  #6
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@Vankiller Whale in response to Kadri, Bozak, Finn and Franson vs Kadri, Kulemin and Finn:

I think Toronto values the second package quite a bit higher than the first.

I'm certainly open to the Leafs keeping Bozak due to chemistry if Vancouver doesn't value him too highly. What about substituting Bozak out for a 2nd rounder or a futures value comparable to Bozak's?

Say:

Kadri
Finn
Franson
2nd

for

Luongo

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01-08-2013, 03:57 PM
  #7
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Can someone explain to me why Florida is even in the mix? I mean they already have a solid starter in Theodore. They also have Markstrom who is as close as close can be to NHL ready and he has star potential. Why would Florida take on that contract when they don't even need him? It makes ZERO sense.

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01-08-2013, 03:57 PM
  #8
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Alright thanks for the discussion everyone. I'm out.

I still stand by the cap-recapture system hurting Lu's value somewhat among other things.

I don't want the Leafs to part with a 1st and I'm hesitant to include Kadri or Kulemin but definitely not both.

For the record, I'd go Bozak, Kadri and a 3rd. No higher. A higher pick if someone like Finn or a lower prospect is inserted for Kadri.

We'll see when it all goes down which I feel will be soon. We'll see and can comment then. Have a good day.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:00 PM
  #9
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
@Vankiller Whale in response to Kadri, Bozak, Finn and Franson vs Kadri, Kulemin and Finn:

I think Toronto values the second package quite a bit higher than the first.

I'm certainly open to the Leafs keeping Bozak due to chemistry if Vancouver doesn't value him too highly. What about substituting Bozak out for a 2nd rounder or a futures value comparable to Bozak's?

Say:

Kadri
Finn
Franson
2nd

for

Luongo
Meh, I value Bozak more than a 2nd, though. Maybe a 2014 1st? I'd like one established roster player, though, and Kulemin would be a better fit than Bozak. Given that the Leafs just acquired JVR, it might make Kulemin more expendable.

I'd also be okay with something like Kadri, Finn, Frattin, 2nd.(I see Frattin as a downgrade from Kulemin, who i'd still prefer)

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01-08-2013, 04:00 PM
  #10
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Luongo has said and done all the right things... Why not keep him for a year and let Florida and Toronto both miss the playoffs (FLA will miss either way IMO).

It's not like the cap is going down this year or we'll have less options next offseason... Of course this all changes if we get a great offer for either of our goalies that helps us now.

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01-08-2013, 04:04 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
alright thanks for the discussion everyone. I'm out.

I still stand by the cap-recapture system hurting lu's value somewhat among other things.

I don't want the leafs to part with a 1st and i'm hesitant to include kadri or kulemin but definitely not both.

For the record, i'd go bozak, kadri and a 3rd. No higher. A higher pick if someone like finn or a lower prospect is inserted for kadri.

We'll see when it all goes down which i feel will be soon. We'll see and can comment then. Have a good day.
this is as a bright as it will get

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:04 PM
  #12
marty111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The team getting him would get a 5-6 year cap advantage, roughly, and a 3-4 year penalty. They are still getting more years at advantage than they are disadvantage. Make sense?
And on that point, my last, I see where some of the separation begins.

At 5.3M I can only imagine Luongo being a discount on that figure for 3-4 years MAX. He may match that figure but by no means perform better then it. Thus I see him declining somewhat around 36/37 from elite status.

With that being considered, 3-4 years of advantage, maybe 2-3 years of debatable market value leaves about 4 years where he will perform below that cap hit. Say he retires before the contract is over so 3 years. Plus 3-4 years of a dead cap space penalty and you have about 6 years where the cap hit versus his ability would be a detriment versus 3-4 years of real value.

Not what I would consider fair or not even the slightest problem.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:05 PM
  #13
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To Dal:
Luongo
Lack
Edler
Kadri
Franson

To Van:
Goligoski
Bozak
Faksa
Campbell
Ritchie
Oleksiak

To Tor
Lehtonen
Raymond

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:08 PM
  #14
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I think they'll keep Luongo and trade Schneider to the Oilers for Hall

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:10 PM
  #15
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I think they'll keep Luongo and trade Schneider to the Oilers for Hall
Nah, Schneider for Crosby.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:11 PM
  #16
Spazmatic Dan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Meh, I value Bozak more than a 2nd, though. Maybe a 2014 1st? I'd like one established roster player, though, and Kulemin would be a better fit than Bozak. Given that the Leafs just acquired JVR, it might make Kulemin more expendable.

I'd also be okay with something like Kadri, Finn, Frattin, 2nd.(I see Frattin as a downgrade from Kulemin, who i'd still prefer)
I honestly don't think it makes Kulemin more expendable because the rationale for getting Van Reimsdyk IIRC was that we needed more players of that type.

The bottom I think is good value but the issue is it opens a hole on the 3rd line and in the forward prospect department (which is sadly a weak spot of Toronto's prospect pool). If Biggs were more ready I doubt it would be as much of an issue to move Kadri and Frattin.

I'd sooner move Biggs + something small than Frattin to be honest. Is that an option?

So what does your other option amount to? Kadri, Finn, Franson, 1st 2014? Or was it Kadri, Finn, 2nd 2013, 1st 2014?

It seems like we're getting close in value although Burke may not want to pay that much. It all depends on his confidence in Reimer. If Burke and Carlyle truly believe that Reimer will become a very good goalie very soon (I think he will be and from their interviews they seem to like him a lot) and a solid veteran backup is available for a decent price, that would likely be a better option for Burkie than giving up that much future.

Guess we'll see what he thinks soon enough. I'm honestly not sure how this will play out but it would be nice to see top notch goaltending in Toronto again.

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01-08-2013, 04:14 PM
  #17
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Gardiner
Kadri
Connolly

for

Luongo
Raymond

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01-08-2013, 04:16 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minimalist View Post
Gardiner
Kadri
Connolly

for

Luongo
Raymond


Yeah, I don't think so.

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01-08-2013, 04:16 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
And on that point, my last, I see where some of the separation begins.

At 5.3M I can only imagine Luongo being a discount on that figure for 3-4 years MAX. He may match that figure but by no means perform better then it. Thus I see him declining somewhat around 36/37 from elite status.

With that being considered, 3-4 years of advantage, maybe 2-3 years of debatable market value leaves about 4 years where he will perform below that cap hit. Say he retires before the contract is over so 3 years. Plus 3-4 years of a dead cap space penalty and you have about 6 years where the cap hit versus his ability would be a detriment versus 3-4 years of real value.

Not what I would consider fair or not even the slightest problem.



Ok, so that's where we disagree. I see 5-6 years of high end play.


Even in your scenario, it's 3-4 years of high end play, 1-2 years at fair play (because there will be a transition phase), and 3-4 on the decline with him retiring in the 1st or 2nd year of this last section (likely), that's still 1-2 years of play _at_ his cap hit. Not below.


Now this all depends on salary/cap-hit values increase in the new CBA. They've limited long-term length to 8 years, so in order for better players to get accurate salary, the cap-hits will be higher than what we have known on average. Kypreos has said as much on the FAN590 (today in fact). He gets it. Thus, it could be that 5.3m cap hit is seen as _very_ favourable as we go on here. But time will tell.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:18 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minimalist View Post
Gardiner
Kadri
Connolly

for

Luongo
Raymond
Not happening unless Vancouver retains half the cap value on their books.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:19 PM
  #21
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Bozak and a 1st get it done imo.

The leafs need those other wingers more than van does. the leafs get to keep kadri and the other top prospects and just lose the pick.

Van plugs a hole at 2/3 line center gets the 1st that helps the poor prospect pool (should be 10-20 pick) and some cap flexibility for next year.

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01-08-2013, 04:25 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by Kulemon View Post
Can someone explain to me why Florida is even in the mix? I mean they already have a solid starter in Theodore. They also have Markstrom who is as close as close can be to NHL ready and he has star potential. Why would Florida take on that contract when they don't even need him? It makes ZERO sense.
Well Theodore's status as a "solid starter" is debateable. He's bounced between good, bad and injured for some time. Markstrom has yet to blow anyone away at the AHL level and has had knee issues. At 22 he's not exactly breaking down the door, could still be a year or two before he's ready for 60-70 games a season. Luongo has proven to be a very good mentor type for young goalies and players. Bringing him in would allow Markstrom another year in the AHL, then some seasoning, then trade bait or figure it out once he's taken the job.

For what happens when you throw a prospect goalie to the wolves, see: Maple Leafs, Toronto.

On top of that there is the PR aspect. Luongo still has star power, lives and wants to be in Florida. He still holds most of their goaltending records as well. Not to mention getting a guy like that legitimizes your team and gives you a shot at the playoffs year in and year out.

I think Florida has a lot of motivation to bring in Luongo, whether or not they do is a complete unknown, like most things regarding this sutuation.

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01-08-2013, 04:26 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spice Trader View Post
Bozak and a 1st get it done imo.

The leafs need those other wingers more than van does. the leafs get to keep kadri and the other top prospects and just lose the pick.

Van plugs a hole at 2/3 line center gets the 1st that helps the poor prospect pool (should be 10-20 pick) and some cap flexibility for next year.
Doubt the Leafs will trade their first round pick this year. Would have more luck getting it out of Florida, IMO.

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01-08-2013, 04:26 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minimalist View Post
Gardiner
Kadri
Connolly

for

Luongo
Raymond
Add Kassian and mid pick.

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Old
01-08-2013, 04:33 PM
  #25
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Bozak + Biggs + Lombardi (salary dump)+ Franson


for

Ballard (salary dump) + Luongo

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