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Wild are still underdogs?

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Old
01-10-2013, 11:14 AM
  #76
Engebretson
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Meh, let everyone think we're still underdogs. Like others have said, other teams' fans and media still think Lemaire is running the trap. Our very promising future means nothing to them and they attribute all of our success to hot streaks or luck.

Hypothetically, if we were to win a Cup in the next few years, we'd still have "something to prove" the next year. It's just how it is and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

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01-10-2013, 11:17 AM
  #77
Tuomaz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sixbladeknife View Post
It always is. I'm just saying that if you think that a team that, last season, was 14 points away from the playoffs with the third-worst goal differential in the league, should be a surefire playoff team, you ought to think twice how realistic your expectations are.

The Wild could very well make the playoffs, but in my opinion they're going to need a bit of overachievement and/or luck to do so.
Every team needs luck to get to the playoffs. Imo Wild doesn't need to overachieve to make the playoffs. There is just so much quality in the team.

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01-10-2013, 11:25 AM
  #78
Dr Jan Itor
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I have a feeling there are going to a couple teams in the playoffs and a couple teams out that will make you say, "huh?"

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Old
01-10-2013, 11:27 AM
  #79
Sixbladeknife
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuomaz View Post
Every team needs luck to get to the playoffs. Imo Wild doesn't need to overachieve to make the playoffs. There is just so much quality in the team.
I'd say there's lots of potential quality. I hope they put the pieces of the puzzle together fast, because they're such a likable team. But it's hard to improve by 7-8 wins in one season.

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01-10-2013, 11:50 AM
  #80
Dee Oh Cee
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Not really...especially considering the circumstances of what happened last year and the changes that occurred to prevent the same things from happening. Injuries and having players like Warren Peters, Jed Ortmeyer, Jarod Palmer, Chad Rau, etc. fill in killed the team last season. As so many others have said, the difference this season is that not only do we obviously have a better team overall with Parise, Suter, Granlund, Konopka and Mitchell...we have replacements in case of injuries that will not kill this team. For example, Zucker, Coyle, Larsson, Palmieri and Fontaine would be the injury replacements as opposed to those listed before. It's such a huge difference.

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01-10-2013, 12:09 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
I have a feeling there are going to a couple teams in the playoffs and a couple teams out that will make you say, "huh?"
I am sort of tickled with the thought of the decline of the Red Wings. I look at the roster and outside of Zetterberg...

I just don't have the confidence in their team. Datsyuk has been injury prone the last two seasons and he is, arguably, their best player.
No Lidstrom... No Holmstrom...

A cupboard full of "meh" prospects...

I mean, if people think that our D is suspect, take a gander at theirs...

28 Carlo Colaiacovo L 29
52 Jonathan Ericsson L 28
4 Jakub Kindl L 25
55 Niklas Kronwall (A) L 31
27 Kyle Quincey L 27
2 Brendan Smith L 23
18 Ian White R 28

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01-10-2013, 12:19 PM
  #82
Dee Oh Cee
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Yeah I think it's very possible that they finish 4th in their own division.

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01-10-2013, 12:25 PM
  #83
bozak911
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Originally Posted by Dee Oh Cee View Post
Yeah I think it's very possible that they finish 4th in their own division.
I would also laugh my ass off in a serious way if Steve Mason returns to his rookie caliber form (not likely) and Howard flops...

...and with the #1 over all pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, the Detroit Red Wings select... Seth Jones.

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01-10-2013, 12:53 PM
  #84
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I think there are people here that seriously undervalue what a healthy Koivu-Parise combo could do. I don't care who the extra on that line is- Heater, PMB, Granlund. Those two guys are immensely motivated every shift and godforbid Koivu and Parise both go into super-grind godmode- that's going to be hell.

And I mean. Our top PP unit. Gold.

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Old
01-10-2013, 01:58 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
I am sort of tickled with the thought of the decline of the Red Wings. I look at the roster and outside of Zetterberg...

I just don't have the confidence in their team. Datsyuk has been injury prone the last two seasons and he is, arguably, their best player.
No Lidstrom... No Holmstrom...

A cupboard full of "meh" prospects...

I mean, if people think that our D is suspect, take a gander at theirs...

28 Carlo Colaiacovo L 29
52 Jonathan Ericsson L 28
4 Jakub Kindl L 25
55 Niklas Kronwall (A) L 31
27 Kyle Quincey L 27
2 Brendan Smith L 23
18 Ian White R 28
I've made the mistake of counting out the Wings in the past and have been proven wrong many times. There is something about that organization that somehow keeps that team competitive.

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Old
01-10-2013, 03:27 PM
  #86
State of Hockey
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Originally Posted by Karl View Post
I just find it amazing that numerous fans and even media members think all the Wild did was copy the Rangers plan of buying talent. They ignore that Chuck Fletcher and his team have busted their *** rebuilding the team and more importantly their prospects after Doug Risebrough drove this franchise into the ground. It is really quite remarkable the job they have done.
Signing Parise and Suter does have a lot of similarities to the Rangers and Gomez/Drury. And then Heatley is here because we traded away another big free agent. Granlund will be the first new regime prospect that's expected to be a higher-end player. What's so remarkable about being a very poor team lately and then trying to buy your way out of the hole? I'm sorry, but that's the same style New York has been criticized for. I see their point clearly.

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Originally Posted by Tuomaz View Post
Imo Predator fans were just really dissapointed in Suter's decision but Devils' fans started raving about overpayment and calling Parise a grinder who can't shoot etc etc..
You can't help but agree with Devils fans. He likely will be a overpayment at some point, and he's the definition of a grind-it-out, ugly goal player. He doesn't have much of a shot, and there's very little that's "pretty" about his game. He's still very good at it, but the trends aren't in our favor for anything more.

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Originally Posted by Generic User View Post
His post would've been disappointing even if it were in all caps. Parise is the best natural left winger in the game. If you don't agree with that, you'd have to agree that he's top three. Not "top five, maybe."
Parise wasn't even the best left-winger on his own team. Last year you can make a rock solid case that he was top-10, but anything above that is pushing it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sixbladeknife View Post
I'd say there's lots of potential quality. I hope they put the pieces of the puzzle together fast, because they're such a likable team. But it's hard to improve by 7-8 wins in one season.
Yes, someone else understands this.

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Old
01-10-2013, 03:46 PM
  #87
Dr Jan Itor
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From 2010-11 to 2011-12, 7 teams had notable win increases:

NYR with 7
Florida with 8
NJ with 10
Ottawa with 9
St. Louis with 11
Edmonton with 7
Colorado with 11

Roughly 1/4 of the league improved by at least 7 wins. A couple more were in the 4-5 range. That's even more than what my expectation was.


Last edited by Dr Jan Itor: 01-10-2013 at 04:14 PM.
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Old
01-10-2013, 03:56 PM
  #88
Dr Jan Itor
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Now, if you don't consider last year to be a true representation of the quality of the team, like many of us here (we know you do), and considering the players that have departed and the players we have brought in, it isn't too difficult to find those 7-10 wins.

I actually think Florida is good comparison for us. They brought in a couple FA's (lesser quality FA's at that), had some youngsters to bring up, solid goaltending, etc... and made their jump to division winner. We'll see how it goes for us, but I find these situations similar. From what I can see, they went from guys like Booth/Wideman/Stillman to Campbell/Versteeg/Fleishmann.


Last edited by Dr Jan Itor: 01-10-2013 at 04:02 PM.
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Old
01-10-2013, 04:42 PM
  #89
TaLoN
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Most people are putting the Wild in the top ten in the league and top 5-7 in the conference...that's the correct range here people.

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01-10-2013, 05:03 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by State of Hockey View Post
Signing Parise and Suter does have a lot of similarities to the Rangers and Gomez/Drury. And then Heatley is here because we traded away another big free agent. Granlund will be the first new regime prospect that's expected to be a higher-end player. What's so remarkable about being a very poor team lately and then trying to buy your way out of the hole? I'm sorry, but that's the same style New York has been criticized for. I see their point clearly.
I guess I can concede the argument about buying free agents, but I think it is a little different because the Wild didn't plan on landing one or both Parise and Suter. It was just a very nice surprise. But the FA signing's are not what I find remarkable, what I find remarkable is the job Chuck Fletcher did rebuilding this team. When he got the job this team was a dumpster fire, filled with bad contracts and a terrible prospect pool. Now we have one of the best if not the best prospects in the NHL and the Wild have arguably one of it's most talented teams in franchise history.

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01-10-2013, 05:21 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
I actually think Florida is good comparison for us. They brought in a couple FA's (lesser quality FA's at that), had some youngsters to bring up, solid goaltending, etc... and made their jump to division winner. We'll see how it goes for us, but I find these situations similar. From what I can see, they went from guys like Booth/Wideman/Stillman to Campbell/Versteeg/Fleishmann.
Florida improved their goal differential by 10 goals (-34 -> -24). That typically doesn't equate to 8 extra wins. They won a lot of close games; one might call it clutch play or teamwork - statisticians call it luck. That kind of performance is pretty much non-repeatable.

As you pointed out, there are a handful of teams every year that see their record drastically improve (or regress). In these cases, random variance usually has as much of a role as 'true' skill level. In the first half of last season the Wild were very lucky, after that their luck turned completely. I'd argue that in the end, their fortune was pretty average (maybe a bit on minus side because of all those injuries).

I don't want to sound like I'm dissing the team. I'm just a firm believer in statistical analysis, which indicates that they're problably not a true playoff team quite yet. I think they're somewhere around 17th-19th (and I hope I'm underestimating them). Of course, the puck is known to bounce - one way or the other.

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01-10-2013, 05:22 PM
  #92
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it'll be even better once we get the douggie contracts out of our hair too. Parrish has like what 2 more years? butch, ugh. backstrom. all that money will be vital to keep us legit.

any team who didn't have great success in the prior year is going to be considered an underdog. they haven't proven otherwise in one game yet. i am all hyped as much as the next guy for good things to happen, but they actually need to happen before the media starts to take notice.

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01-10-2013, 05:30 PM
  #93
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I think we are closer to the 2008-2009 Hawks. Was in Chicago that season.

They were really bad before that season in 07/08. Had Havlat and nobody else. Their #2 scorer was Vrbata with 41 points.Sharp only had 35 points the season before. Seabrook and Keith were still pups.

But in 08/09, they add Toews and Kane through prospect generation. Versteeg and Ladd via trade. And Campbell via free agency.

And Bam.

Wild have a better base to start with than Chicago did, and Parise, Suter, and Granlund will be as impactful as Toews, Kane, and Campbell were to Chicago.

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01-10-2013, 05:47 PM
  #94
ShutDownDefense
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We have a few top stars, but defense needs work along with a bit of our forwards from being a true top contendor, but still I feel like this year will be a bit more like this:


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01-10-2013, 05:49 PM
  #95
Tuomaz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sixbladeknife View Post
Florida improved their goal differential by 10 goals (-34 -> -24). That typically doesn't equate to 8 extra wins. They won a lot of close games; one might call it clutch play or teamwork - statisticians call it luck. That kind of performance is pretty much non-repeatable.

As you pointed out, there are a handful of teams every year that see their record drastically improve (or regress). In these cases, random variance usually has as much of a role as 'true' skill level. In the first half of last season the Wild were very lucky, after that their luck turned completely. I'd argue that in the end, their fortune was pretty average (maybe a bit on minus side because of all those injuries).

I don't want to sound like I'm dissing the team. I'm just a firm believer in statistical analysis, which indicates that they're problably not a true playoff team quite yet. I think they're somewhere around 17th-19th (and I hope I'm underestimating them). Of course, the puck is known to bounce - one way or the other.


Statistical analysis don't work on this team though. It's nearly impossible to know how they will do because they are practically a different team. All the changes have been ( or atleast should be) on the positive side though.

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01-10-2013, 05:49 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by TaLoN View Post
Most people are putting the Wild in the top ten in the league and top 5-7 in the conference...that's the correct range here people.
This. Wild are slowly creeping up and are great contenders now acquiring two great players along with a strong goalie and offense

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01-10-2013, 05:57 PM
  #97
Billy Mays Here
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Originally Posted by ShutDownDefense View Post
We have a few top stars, but defense needs work along with a bit of our forwards from being a true top contendor, but still I feel like this year will be a bit more like this:

Awww yeah!!! Bringing it back.

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01-10-2013, 06:35 PM
  #98
Sixbladeknife
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Originally Posted by Tuomaz View Post
Statistical analysis don't work on this team though. It's nearly impossible to know how they will do because they are practically a different team. All the changes have been ( or atleast should be) on the positive side though.
You have a solid point - the more a team changes, the harder it is to predict based on numbers. Still, I don't think it's accurate to claim that statistics have little or no value, not even in a situation like this.

Let's look at it this way: there are a couple of key questions regarding the new additions, and a few concerning the old core.
- Will Parise be a great 1st line winger? (1 PPG or close to it)
-Will Suter be a great #1 defenseman without Weber?
-Will Granlund adapt quickly to the NHL and contend for the Calder?
-Can most of the key players stay healthy?
-Will Bäckström have a good (or at least solid) season in the crease?

If the answer to all of these questions is 'yes', the Wild will have a home advantage come playoff time. If the answer to every question is 'no', the season will be a disaster. The most likely scenario is that some of these things work out and some don't - that's how probability works. In my mind, the team still isn't good enough to make a postseason appearance unless more things go right than expected. Still, I can totally appreciate a more optimistic view as well. It's just not very smart to think that everything will go as planned.

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Old
01-10-2013, 06:54 PM
  #99
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I wish Lambert would write a new Unsustainable piece before the season even starts.

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01-10-2013, 07:24 PM
  #100
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Metrics looked better when they went on their giant skid.

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