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The Luongo Thread: Sympathy For The Devil

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Old
01-15-2013, 02:48 AM
  #126
Tiranis
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1) Most GMs keep their job for an average of about 4 years. (I know the number is somewhere in that range but didn't bother to verify the exact numbers.)

2) Luongo has at least 5 more years of top level play, if not more. This is based on the career progression of other high-end goalies similar to him.

3) While his contract has some penalties to it, it's also a very friendly cap hit for the time that he remains a good goalie. It's certainly a great deal compared to what other goalies of his stature get paid.

4) Given 1, combined with 2 and 3, we can safely assume that GMs are far more concerned with the more immediate timeline than something that's 5 or 10 years out. Fans can afford to take the long term approach as you'll be around 5, 10, 15 and 30 years from now (in all likelihood). GMs won't, even the best ones. As a result they're more likely to take risks and they're more likely to place high value on shorter-term assets.

It's why Iginla and Kiprusoff are still in Calgary. Feaster knows he won't be the GM around for the rebuild that will occur so his only hope is to continue middling along and hoping that perhaps one of his draft picks or moves gets him into the playoffs. Perhaps Cervenka is that guy for him?

It's why the Stars traded Iginla when he looked like a complete stud and a total steal for an aging Nieuwendyk. They weren't even a playoff team. If this were HFBoards they would've kept Iginla and continued a slow rebuild.

5) Prospects are consistently overrated on HFBoards. A prospect with 80 point potential is worth more than a 70 point player. Why? Because he has more of his career to go? It's ridiculous and has been proven to be wrong over and over and over again in the real world.

6) It's a business and nobody on HFBoards even bothers to think about that. A playoff series for a Canadian team is anywhere between $5 and $10 extra million. Three playoff series could be as much as $40 million or more once you consider extra merchandise sales and everything else. You don't have any salary obligations to your players either.

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01-15-2013, 02:50 AM
  #127
Willchel Marlynder
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Probably for the same reason Leaf fans overrate their prospects and think overpaid mediocre regulars are of value.
I know a good amount of people over rate their prospects every fan base does. But Lou is not a prospect. He's a 33 year old signed to a horrible contract. How many good year's does he have left ? Lou is very good for sure. But his contract is just awful. And now he indicating he wants out. I guess I see why Gillies is asking for so much. He needs to capitalize now because if Lou is still A Cunuck come summer time. They'll be a noticable drop in value.

Anyway nice way of answering my question lol. You just admitted to over valuing Luongo and that awful contract. Anyway you guys should keep him. Its obviously not awkard (yet) and having an elite tantrum in net is never a bad thing.

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01-15-2013, 02:52 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
MacArthur is basically an offensive Higgins, except little defense to speak of. He could jell with Kesler but I wouldn't be any significance on acquiring him. Frankly, Bozak would be more valuable.
MacArthur also fights when needed.

However, that trade on the first page that the Coyotes blogger posted is a HUGE underpayment for Luongo lol.

Percy is a solid prospect, but he's not an elite prospect by any means. It can also be argued that he's behind Finn and Blacker, although his style is different(like Paul Martin).

The best option for the Leafs, IMO, is to make a move for Luongo in the summer...if he's still available.
Luongo isn't worth a Kadri type, with the Leafs current position. If the Leafs were ahead in their development, it would be a different story.

Rather see the Leafs go with the home-grown this shortened season.

In saying that, I don't think Luongo will ever get that return from any team. Voracek will not leave the Flyers, they lost a ton of size on the wings with JVR and Jagr no longer being there, they won't move Voracek. Maybe Briere and a 1st(late first most likely) for Luongo. He's a clutch player, more clutch than any Vancouver player in the playoffs. His salary ain't the greatest, but he can be bought out if anything. He's also a center...but he has to agree to be traded.

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01-15-2013, 02:57 AM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philer Bozel View Post
I know a good amount of people over rate their prospects every fan base does. But Lou is not a prospect. He's a 33 year old signed to a horrible contract. How many good year's does he have left ? Lou is very good for sure. But his contract is just awful. And now he indicating he wants out. I guess I see why Gillies is asking for so much. He needs to capitalize now because if Lou is still A Cunuck come summer time. They'll be a noticable drop in value.

Anyway nice way of answering my question lol. You just admitted to over valuing Luongo and that awful contract. Anyway you guys should keep him. Its obviously not awkard (yet) and having an elite tantrum in net is never a bad thing.
Ah yes, the horrible, horrible, horrible Luongo contract. Old, horrible Luongo on his old horrible contract. Yep, Gillis better unload that quick, before there's a noticeable drop in the value of the horrible, awful contract.

Makes complete sense, what you're saying.

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01-15-2013, 03:00 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Singh66 View Post
MacArthur also fights when needed.

However, that trade on the first page that the Coyotes blogger posted is a HUGE underpayment for Luongo lol.

Percy is a solid prospect, but he's not an elite prospect by any means. It can also be argued that he's behind Finn and Blacker, although his style is different(like Paul Martin).

The best option for the Leafs, IMO, is to make a move for Luongo in the summer...if he's still available.
Luongo isn't worth a Kadri type, with the Leafs current position. If the Leafs were ahead in their development, it would be a different story.

Rather see the Leafs go with the home-grown this shortened season.

In saying that, I don't think Luongo will ever get that return from any team. Voracek will not leave the Flyers, they lost a ton of size on the wings with JVR and Jagr no longer being there, they won't move Voracek. Maybe Briere and a 1st(late first most likely) for Luongo. He's a clutch player, more clutch than any Vancouver player in the playoffs. His salary ain't the greatest, but he can be bought out if anything. He's also a center...but he has to agree to be traded.
Maybe it's just me, but that sounds a whole lot more interesting to me than Bozak, Kadri and a second.

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01-15-2013, 03:01 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by philer Bozel View Post
I know a good amount of people over rate their prospects every fan base does. But Lou is not a prospect. He's a 33 year old signed to a horrible contract. How many good year's does he have left ? Lou is very good for sure. But his contract is just awful. And now he indicating he wants out. I guess I see why Gillies is asking for so much. He needs to capitalize now because if Lou is still A Cunuck come summer time. They'll be a noticable drop in value.

Anyway nice way of answering my question lol. You just admitted to over valuing Luongo and that awful contract. Anyway you guys should keep him. Its obviously not awkard (yet) and having an elite tantrum in net is never a bad thing.

So question, if you hope he goes to FLA too, what would be your purpose here?


And no, Luongo's contract is still very good overall. Sorry, but that narrative holds no water. They tried to punish cap-circumvention deals with a slap on the wrist recapture. Pathetic. If this was all they were going to do, there was literally no cause for concern. VAN fans fretted for no reason. Now the cap is 64.3m, when people were pushing 60m earlier on, and the recapture is a paltry 6m over 3 years. Nope, his contract is still good.

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01-15-2013, 03:03 AM
  #132
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Maybe it's just me, but that sounds a whole lot more interesting to me than Bozak, Kadri and a second.

It's not just you.

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01-15-2013, 03:04 AM
  #133
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Maybe it's just me, but that sounds a whole lot more interesting to me than Bozak, Kadri and a second.
See, Leaf Fans know what we're talking about

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01-15-2013, 03:04 AM
  #134
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Ide take briere for Lu for sure. He is getting older, but he has a couple more years left on his deal and he can still produce IMO. He has elite playoff numbers. HE's a clutch player and would fill a MASSIVE void in our offense.

Sedin Sedin Burrows
Higgins Kesler Briere
Raymond Lapierre Hansen
Weise Malholtra Kassian

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01-15-2013, 03:10 AM
  #135
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Ide take briere for Lu for sure. He is getting older, but he has a couple more years left on his deal and he can still produce IMO. He has elite playoff numbers. HE's a clutch player and would fill a MASSIVE void in our offense.

Sedin Sedin Burrows
Booth Kesler Briere
Higgins Lapierre Hansen
Weise Malholtra Kassian
And raymond in goal.

Whoops forgot booth.

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01-15-2013, 03:25 AM
  #136
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Originally Posted by philer Bozel View Post
I know a good amount of people over rate their prospects every fan base does. But Lou is not a prospect. He's a 33 year old signed to a horrible contract. How many good year's does he have left ? Lou is very good for sure. But his contract is just awful. And now he indicating he wants out. I guess I see why Gillies is asking for so much. He needs to capitalize now because if Lou is still A Cunuck come summer time. They'll be a noticable drop in value.

Anyway nice way of answering my question lol. You just admitted to over valuing Luongo and that awful contract. Anyway you guys should keep him. Its obviously not awkard (yet) and having an elite tantrum in net is never a bad thing.


Again how can there be a noticeable drop in value from Bozak, Frattin, and a 2nd (or any other similar combo)?

Maybe Laffs fans are thinking they can get away with giving up a 4th or 5th for him?

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01-15-2013, 03:27 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
1) Most GMs keep their job for an average of about 4 years. (I know the number is somewhere in that range but didn't bother to verify the exact numbers.)

2) Luongo has at least 5 more years of top level play, if not more. This is based on the career progression of other high-end goalies similar to him.

3) While his contract has some penalties to it, it's also a very friendly cap hit for the time that he remains a good goalie. It's certainly a great deal compared to what other goalies of his stature get paid.

4) Given 1, combined with 2 and 3, we can safely assume that GMs are far more concerned with the more immediate timeline than something that's 5 or 10 years out. Fans can afford to take the long term approach as you'll be around 5, 10, 15 and 30 years from now (in all likelihood). GMs won't, even the best ones. As a result they're more likely to take risks and they're more likely to place high value on shorter-term assets.

It's why Iginla and Kiprusoff are still in Calgary. Feaster knows he won't be the GM around for the rebuild that will occur so his only hope is to continue middling along and hoping that perhaps one of his draft picks or moves gets him into the playoffs. Perhaps Cervenka is that guy for him?

It's why the Stars traded Iginla when he looked like a complete stud and a total steal for an aging Nieuwendyk. They weren't even a playoff team. If this were HFBoards they would've kept Iginla and continued a slow rebuild.

5) Prospects are consistently overrated on HFBoards. A prospect with 80 point potential is worth more than a 70 point player. Why? Because he has more of his career to go? It's ridiculous and has been proven to be wrong over and over and over again in the real world.

6) It's a business and nobody on HFBoards even bothers to think about that. A playoff series for a Canadian team is anywhere between $5 and $10 extra million. Three playoff series could be as much as $40 million or more once you consider extra merchandise sales and everything else. You don't have any salary obligations to your players either.
All true. However your are probably better off talking to the fence post.

Ive mentioned the bolded several times in the main thread but when you are talking to over emotional fans it goes over their head.

Money left on the table is money lost to a businessman.

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Old
01-15-2013, 05:14 AM
  #138
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Would VAN fans do the following for Lu and spare parts?


Kopecky + Shore/Petrovic + 1st + Theodore for Luongo + Tochkin + Sweatt

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Old
01-15-2013, 05:25 AM
  #139
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Serious question here. Why do Cunuck fan feel like they can get the moon for a 33 year old goalie on a horrible contract ? Gardner and Kadri, Kulikov? It just seems like an overpayment especially with Luongo's tweet.
Whey do some TO fans come on here and repeat the same old tired comments with nothing to back them up? Do you watch hockey? Do you know what a contract is? How is paying a top 5 goalie a top 10 salary a horrible contract? Yes, its a long contract, and yes its front loaded. If he retires early, then there will be a penalty to be paid. Big deal. Its not like there wont be a few cap floor teams interested in getting a goalie that counts $5M towards the cap for $1M ..... and will likely still be a very solid goalie.

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01-15-2013, 05:34 AM
  #140
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Would VAN fans do the following for Lu and spare parts?


Kopecky + Shore/Petrovic + 1st + Theodore for Luongo + Tochkin + Sweatt
Better than the Leafs offers on HF.

Not sure about whether Shore or Petrovic would be the better option. Im inclined to say Shore.

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01-15-2013, 06:38 AM
  #141
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How is paying a top 5 goalie a top 10 salary a horrible contract?
If it wasn't a bad contract, we wouldn't be having so much trouble unloading him.

 
Old
01-15-2013, 06:44 AM
  #142
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If it wasn't a bad contract, we wouldn't be having so much trouble unloading him.
It's been what, 4 months of actual hockey time (June, July, August, September, and 3 days in January)? They couldn't talk once the CBA expired. There are players that took a hell of a lot longer to get traded: Nash, Heatley, even the Kessel deal was in the works for 3 or 4 months.

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01-15-2013, 06:51 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by philer Bozel View Post
I know a good amount of people over rate their prospects every fan base does. But Lou is not a prospect. He's a 33 year old signed to a horrible contract. How many good year's does he have left ? Lou is very good for sure. But his contract is just awful. And now he indicating he wants out. I guess I see why Gillies is asking for so much. He needs to capitalize now because if Lou is still A Cunuck come summer time. They'll be a noticable drop in value.

Anyway nice way of answering my question lol. You just admitted to over valuing Luongo and that awful contract. Anyway you guys should keep him. Its obviously not awkard (yet) and having an elite tantrum in net is never a bad thing.
Stopped reading here.

Can't talk to anyone when they don't realize his cap hit is phenomenal and enables a team to have a top-tier goalie and added cap space for additional players.

Luongo's cap hit enabled us to have Lapierre and Higgins on our SCF team. We would not have made it there without Lu or his contract.

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01-15-2013, 06:59 AM
  #144
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If it wasn't a bad contract, we wouldn't be having so much trouble unloading him.
I don't think we're having 'trouble' unloading him. I think we could deal him tomorrow.

I think Gillis is maximizing his return and is content knowing it's going to hurt the teams that need him more than the Canucks to wait. The Canucks are not going to lose many more games keeping Lu on the team. Yet, teams like Toronto, will certainly without him.

And anyone who cites that he "wants out" or misinterpreted his recent interview, has no idea what Luongo is about. There was a reason he was named captain; he's a team first guy, he'll play his heart out to win here even if he knew he was leaving a week or month later. He's also so full of levity I couldn't even see it being a locker room distraction; just a couple extra questions by the media, which is nothing new in Vancouver.

So why not wait until his value is high, 15 games into the season when other teams are struggling and they it's clear they need a goalie?

If the conversations had have been a stalemate of evaluation, as it has been with their fans, then I'd gamble and say "Okay Nonis. You go ahead into your season with what you have or go find a better deal elsewhere and we'll sit here. Here's our offer in the meantime."

This is how negotiations work. I thought we'd at least learn something from the lockout.

The Leafs are horrible so I'd make this bet any day of the week.

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01-15-2013, 08:07 AM
  #145
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Oh, Luongo, you have got to stay away from interviews...

Anyway - the fact we can't unload him for a good return is all the evidence necessary that we gave him a bad contract - and that "team first" guy just AGAIN made public statements that he needs out of Vancouver.

 
Old
01-15-2013, 08:07 AM
  #146
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Whey do some TO fans come on here and repeat the same old tired comments with nothing to back them up? Do you watch hockey? Do you know what a contract is? How is paying a top 5 goalie a top 10 salary a horrible contract? Yes, its a long contract, and yes its front loaded. If he retires early, then there will be a penalty to be paid. Big deal. Its not like there wont be a few cap floor teams interested in getting a goalie that counts $5M towards the cap for $1M ..... and will likely still be a very solid goalie.
Because I am sure Luongo will be thrilled to spend the remaining years of his contract on some rebuilding cap floor team. Outside of the obvious (Tampa & Florida) he would probably choose to retire instead of accept demotion or trade. I agree that it does seem silly for Leafs fans to worry about potential problems a decade from now, but today's fans are still suffering from the horrific mistakes made by JFJ. It is understandable that Leafs fans are somewhat paranoid about future implications.

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01-15-2013, 08:39 AM
  #147
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Gillis is working out a deal for Luongo to go to Florida right now. I think that's pretty clear.

FLA: Luongo, Connauton, Read, Philly 2nd, Vancouver 2nd
PHI: Kulikov
VAN: Voracek

I think the value is very fair here. Though Florida is probably looking for more quality than quantity.
Wow. Florida gets an all-star goaltender, a 24 goal scoring rookie, a reasonable offensive D-man prospect and two pretty good draft picks all for an unsigned #4 D-man who admittedly has good upside but is not likely to be on a steal-of-a-deal contract when he does sign. That's a hell of a haul for the Panthers.


Really not a fan of Voracek coming back in a Luongo deal. If the return is a forward the canucks need that forward to be a center OR a shoot first winger. I don't think they need a pass-first winger. Not saying he wouldn't be a nice addition as he probably would be, just that I think after such a deal we are still talking about the same things....needing more goal scoring, needing better center ice depth, another right side D-man etc. To me if you are moving a prime organizational asset you need to address those needs (or be able to make a subsequent move based on increased wing depth that addresses the needs).

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01-15-2013, 08:41 AM
  #148
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Stopped reading here.

Can't talk to anyone when they don't realize his cap hit is phenomenal and enables a team to have a top-tier goalie and added cap space for additional players.

Luongo's cap hit enabled us to have Lapierre and Higgins on our SCF team. We would not have made it there without Lu or his contract.
It's not the 5.3 cap by itself that's the problem. The problem is there is going to be several years of it after he retires at 38-39.

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01-15-2013, 09:14 AM
  #149
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It's not the 5.3 cap by itself that's the problem. The problem is there is going to be several years of it after he retires at 38-39.
He's not going to retire at 38 and give up a salary of $6.714 million.

Maybe at the age of 39 but that's still requiring him to give up a salary of $3.382 million.

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01-15-2013, 09:21 AM
  #150
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He's not going to retire at 38 and give up a salary of $6.714 million.

Maybe at the age of 39 but that's still requiring him to give up a salary of $3.382 million.
Not to mention it seems WE are on the hook for the cap recapture if he retires early.

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