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In Soviet Russia, Ryan O'Reilly signs you.

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01-20-2013, 02:47 PM
  #951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
You mean like that time Crosby went down and the Penguins tanked the season?
Exactly. They lost Crosby and Malkin at the same time.

With or without O'Reilly, this team was going to be in tough to make the playoffs. There's no reason to give up on the season without him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
BTW, don't lump Benn in with all the other holdouts. He's asking for a short-term deal, and there's nothing wrong with that.
Just like there's nothing wrong with the Avs offering O'Reilly a more than fair short term deal.


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01-20-2013, 02:51 PM
  #952
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
A two year $3.5M/year contract is completely fair and calling it a "prove your worth" contract is wrong. It's a standard bridge contract that most players coming off their ELCs get.

Landeskog will, most likely, be offered one in 18 months time and it won't be insulting to him either.
He's getting the same offer after a breakthrough year that Duchene got after a craptacular season. I certainly wouldn't accept that offer, bridge or no bridge. And I imagine those types of offers will be rejected a lot more often under the new CBA.

And those of you arguing he should have put up more points, well, we'll just agree to disagree, okay?

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01-20-2013, 02:52 PM
  #953
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
I wish he wasn't doing it, and yeah, he doesn't deserve the captaincy after this (though I still maintain it's WAY premature to give it to Landeskog), but I'm not going to completely dismiss the character of a professional athlete who is holding out for more money. If we did that, we'd be dismissing a LOT of professional athletes. I'm as surprised as everyone else that this situation has arisen given what we know about Ryan O'Reilly, but I don't think this necessarily makes him a bad guy.

I'll say this about O'Reilly. If he gets his big $$$, he better damn well back it up. I never had a problem with Trevor Pryce when he held out on the Broncos, but I had a big problem with his play there afterwards.

BTW, don't lump Benn in with all the other holdouts. He's asking for a short-term deal, and there's nothing wrong with that.
Captains with contract issues never work out. See Sakic, Joe.

Am I to understand that it's ok to hold out for a short-term deal, but not for a long-term deal?

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01-20-2013, 02:53 PM
  #954
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Now this is a really scary thought. Why? What did the 'young guys'/team do to make him want to leave? If we can't attract TOP UFAs and the talent this team develops leaves due to being unhappy ... this team is going to have a bigger uphill battle than expected.
Obviously this is all just speculation. I don't think it's anything anyone did, though it does sound like he/his camp have taken some things personally in this, more just O'Reilly looking for a guaranteed future and role. The team offered him a guaranteed future, as well as a very fair present with opportunity to cash in in the future. He said no to both, and that's well within his rights. Obviously this team can't guarantee him a top 6 role, though it's definitely in his power to earn it. He/his camp obviously believe he has nothing left to prove (I don't agree with this), and they're trying to force the team's hand.

Looking at this from game theory and poker POVs, this move actually makes sense, though I think they've overplaying their hand a bit (and the Avs seem to agree). They're forcing the team into a difficult decision: go all in on this player, or fold and let someone else do it. So the question is, what is O'Reilly's expected value/return? If he doesn't at least replicate last season consistently you're committing a lot of coin to a third liner, but if he improves on it (consistently) then you've got a very good deal. What's the probability of each scenario? Then, to add another layer of difficulty, you have to consider what this new salary structure does to the team long-term.

This is similar to the Jordan Staal situation, just on a more accelerated pace.

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01-20-2013, 02:55 PM
  #955
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Do you think there could be any bitterness on O'Reilly's part about Landeskog being named captain and not him? That it may add to a feeling of being undervalued and under-appreciated (where does he stack up on the center rotation) and perhaps a thinking process that he may be more appreciated, and rewarded, on another team? Might just be another straw on the proverbial camel's back.

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01-20-2013, 02:56 PM
  #956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by detrude View Post
Obviously this is all just speculation. I don't think it's anything anyone did, though it does sound like he/his camp have taken some things personally in this, more just O'Reilly looking for a guaranteed future and role. The team offered him a guaranteed future, as well as a very fair present with opportunity to cash in in the future. He said no to both, and that's well within his rights. Obviously this team can't guarantee him a top 6 role, though it's definitely in his power to earn it. He/his camp obviously believe he has nothing left to prove (I don't agree with this), and they're trying to force the team's hand.

Looking at this from game theory and poker POVs, this move actually makes sense, though I think they've overplaying their hand a bit (and the Avs seem to agree). They're forcing the team into a difficult decision: go all in on this player, or fold and let someone else do it. So the question is, what is O'Reilly's expected value/return? If he doesn't at least replicate last season consistently you're committing a lot of coin to a third liner, but if he improves on it (consistently) then you've got a very good deal. What's the probability of each scenario? Then, to add another layer of difficulty, you have to consider what this new salary structure does to the team long-term.

This is similar to the Jordan Staal situation, just on a more accelerated pace.
You're right. Remind me, what happened with Staal?

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01-20-2013, 02:59 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
You mean like that time Crosby went down and the Penguins tanked the season?


The Pens are a perennial Cup contender that has a lot more talent (and salary) than a rebuilding Avs squad that has hugged the cap floor until this year. Big difference.

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01-20-2013, 03:01 PM
  #958
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
He's getting the same offer after a breakthrough year that Duchene got after a craptacular season. I certainly wouldn't accept that offer, bridge or no bridge. And I imagine those types of offers will be rejected a lot more often under the new CBA.

And those of you arguing he should have put up more points, well, we'll just agree to disagree, okay?
He's getting a significantly better offer than del Zotto and Kulikov have signed. Del Zotto had 41 points and was a +20 last year. He's getting paid $2.5M/year for the next two years.

With most young players you are not entirely sure of what you have, unless they are super stars. Offering a bridge contract and giving them every chance to succeed makes perfect sense.

It's only in the last two years a lot of the RFAs have been getting long contracts. It's not a particularly good development for teams and it's healthy that some organizations like Montreal and Colorado resist.

The only RFA Avs have given a long second contract is Stastny and, no surprise, it's the worst of the RFA contracts we have had in the last decade. Asking young players to prove they are worth the big money long term contract isn't insulting in any way, especially if they are making millions proving it.

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01-20-2013, 03:02 PM
  #959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anleva View Post
Do you think there could be any bitterness on O'Reilly's part about Landeskog being named captain and not him? That it may add to a feeling of being undervalued and under-appreciated (where does he stack up on the center rotation) and perhaps a thinking process that he may be more appreciated, and rewarded, on another team? Might just be another straw on the proverbial camel's back.
I know a lot of people have been talking about it, but I don't see it at all.

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01-20-2013, 03:02 PM
  #960
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Captains with contract issues never work out. See Sakic, Joe.

Am I to understand that it's ok to hold out for a short-term deal, but not for a long-term deal?
I don't see the problem with a guy leaving years and money on the table because he's not entirely sure of where the organization might be long-term. I imagine Benn, like Weber in Nashville, is just unsure if ownership is willing to commit the $$$ necessary to build a Cup contender.

So yes, personally I didn't have a problem with Weber holding out for a short-term deal, and I don't have a problem with Benn doing the same. Why is that such a horrible thing? I can see why Nieuwendyk wants a longer-term commitment, but if he's not gonna get it, I think you just need to get your best player into the lineup.


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01-20-2013, 03:03 PM
  #961
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Does anyone else feel like there will be a lot of animosity between the Avs' players and O'Reilly because of the type of season this is? With every game meaning so much more, is it possible that there becomes a big rift between O'Reilly and the guys in the locker room, so much so that he's pretty much forced to be traded?

O'Reilly is one of my favourite players but I can't stand the guy right now, selfish *****. You had one, ONE good season statistically and you want upwards of 4-5 millions dollars? What happens if Jamie McGinn consistently puts up 20 goals and 55 points, does he get more than 5 million a season?

Honestly, its gotten to the point where, as much as I want O'Reilly playing for the Avs, I wouldn't mind trading him if something fair were to come up

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01-20-2013, 03:10 PM
  #962
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Originally Posted by dahrougem2 View Post
Does anyone else feel like there will be a lot of animosity between the Avs' players and O'Reilly because of the type of season this is? With every game meaning so much more, is it possible that there becomes a big rift between O'Reilly and the guys in the locker room, so much so that he's pretty much forced to be traded?

O'Reilly is one of my favourite players but I can't stand the guy right now, selfish *****. You had one, ONE good season statistically and you want upwards of 4-5 millions dollars? What happens if Jamie McGinn consistently puts up 20 goals and 55 points, does he get more than 5 million a season?

Honestly, its gotten to the point where, as much as I want O'Reilly playing for the Avs, I wouldn't mind trading him if something fair were to come up
Oh, there's plenty of animosity at this point...guess we'll see if tradition holds and O'Reilly ends up just like Drury, Deadmarsh, and Ozolinsh before him. Of course the situations with Drury and Deadmarsh involved each player having somewhat rough seasons respectively and Lacroix ultimately deciding he needed to address a more glaring need (in both cases, a defenseman). Don't remember how the Ozolinsh thing went down.

For the record, unless I see any evidence that indicates otherwise, I don't buy into the notion that this is another Turris situation where the player is wanting out more than he's wanting $$$.

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01-20-2013, 03:16 PM
  #963
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
So yes, personally I didn't have a problem with Weber holding out for a short-term deal, and I don't have a problem with Benn doing the same. Why is that such a horrible thing?
Didn't get the memo, did you, Av-merican? This is a pro-owner echo chamber, where players are expected to take extra-discounted hometown deals, and if they don't, they're greedy SOBs that need to be run outta town, yee-haw! After all, why shouldn't our best defensive forward sign a contract identical to Matt Duchene's contract, despite out-scoring Duchene whilst shutting down the opponent's top lines and getting the defensive zone starts, etc? The fact that O'Reilly did Duchene's job better than Duchene, and led the team's defensive effort better than anyone else, can only mean one thing: duh, O'Reilly needs to sign an identical contract to Duchene!

If management blows this with O'Reilly, they're going to set this team back years. Why some of you are pushing for that, I don't know, but be careful what you wish for.

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01-20-2013, 03:24 PM
  #964
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Didn't get the memo, did you, Av-merican? This is a pro-owner echo chamber, where players are expected to take extra-discounted hometown deals, and if they don't, they're greedy SOBs that need to be run outta town, yee-haw! After all, why shouldn't our best defensive forward sign a contract identical to Matt Duchene's contract, despite out-scoring Duchene whilst shutting down the opponent's top lines and getting the defensive zone starts, etc? The fact that O'Reilly did Duchene's job better than Duchene, and led the team's defensive effort better than anyone else, can only mean one thing: duh, O'Reilly needs to sign an identical contract to Duchene!

If management blows this with O'Reilly, they're going to set this team back years. Why some of you are pushing for that, I don't know, but be careful what you wish for.
Two years at $3.5M isn't anywhere in the universe of an extra-discounted hometown deal. It's what he's worth.

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01-20-2013, 03:26 PM
  #965
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post


The Pens is a perennial Cup contender that has a lot more talent (and salary) than a rebuilding Avs squad that has hugged the cap floor until this year. Big difference.
They still managed to meet their expectations without the best player in the world. And they're far from the only team to do it. Boston has been quite successful without Marc Savard. Washington did fine without Backstrom. Vancouver had no problem without Kesler. Chicago somehow managed without Toews.

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01-20-2013, 03:28 PM
  #966
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
Didn't get the memo, did you, Av-merican? This is a pro-owner echo chamber, where players are expected to take extra-discounted hometown deals, and if they don't, they're greedy SOBs that need to be run outta town, yee-haw! After all, why shouldn't our best defensive forward sign a contract identical to Matt Duchene's contract, despite out-scoring Duchene whilst shutting down the opponent's top lines and getting the defensive zone starts, etc? The fact that O'Reilly did Duchene's job better than Duchene, and led the team's defensive effort better than anyone else, can only mean one thing: duh, O'Reilly needs to sign an identical contract to Duchene!

If management blows this with O'Reilly, they're going to set this team back years. Why some of you are pushing for that, I don't know, but be careful what you wish for.
Handing out big money after one year of good offensive production. What could go wrong?


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01-20-2013, 03:34 PM
  #967
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I don't think anyone is saying O'Reilly should get $5.5M/yr like Horcoff did. At least I hope not.

If he is asking for over $5M, that's ridiculous and the Avs should wait it out. But I don't think it's unreasonable for him to be asking for more than Duchene.

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01-20-2013, 03:38 PM
  #968
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One of the main reasons for most people here seemingly being pro-Avs on this is the knock on effect, not just within the Avs but the entire league. If you start handing out 5m per year on every second contract, pretty soon the whole league will be buggered. It is something the NHL wanted to scale back and with good reason. Setting this kind of precedent is dangerous for both the team and the league.

I love O'Reilly and we have a poorer team without him in the line up but no one man is bigger than the team and demanding 5m per year is doing just that.

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01-20-2013, 03:40 PM
  #969
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Originally Posted by MikeyBroomers View Post
One of the main reasons for most people here seemingly being pro-Avs on this is the knock on effect, not just within the Avs but the entire league. If you start handing out 5m per year on every second contract, pretty soon the whole league will be buggered. It is something the NHL wanted to scale back and with good reason. Setting this kind of precedent is dangerous for both the team and the league.
Pretty much every other team is handing out big second contracts. That's one of the reasons why the Avs are in this situation.


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01-20-2013, 03:41 PM
  #970
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They still managed to meet their expectations without the best player in the world. And they're far from the only team to do it. Boston has been quite successful without Marc Savard. Washington did fine without Backstrom. Vancouver had no problem without Kesler. Chicago somehow managed without Toews.
Again, those teams have a lot more talent and larger payrolls. The Avs don't have either of these luxuries. Those other teams have elite talent all over the roster, they can all afford to lose that top player and still be okay. Don't tell me you're seriously comparing Chicago, Vancouver, Washington, and Pittsburgh's situations with the Avs. All of those teams have spent to the cap or come very close. The Avs have only just spent past the cap floor this offseason.

Hell, you could even see the Avs somehow step up and make up for the absence of Forsberg during their Cup run. But again, the talent, depth, and payroll on that squad as opposed to the youth and meager payroll of this Avs team is worlds apart.

And Savard was never, ever Boston's best player while he was there.

If I'm wrong in predicting doom and gloom for the Avs without O'Reilly, fine. I'd be thrilled if I were proven wrong. But I think O'Reilly is too important for the Avs for them to be taken seriously without a player who makes an impact for the team in all situations.

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01-20-2013, 03:43 PM
  #971
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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
I don't think anyone is saying O'Reilly should get $5.5M/yr like Horcoff did. At least I hope not.
Yeah, O'Reilly sure does look like a greedy tyrant when we start inserting pictures of Horcoff and saying he's after a $5.5M+ paycheck, but where did this number even come from? When you strip an hyperbolic argument of hyperbole, there isn't much substance left.

There is clearly a huge difference between $3.5M and $5.5M, and the fact of the matter is, we don't know what O'Reilly is asking for. All we know is what has been offered: $3.5M. And I, like you, don't think it's unreasonable for O'Reilly to get paid more than that.

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01-20-2013, 03:44 PM
  #972
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
Didn't get the memo, did you, Av-merican? This is a pro-owner echo chamber, where players are expected to take extra-discounted hometown deals, and if they don't, they're greedy SOBs that need to be run outta town, yee-haw! After all, why shouldn't our best defensive forward sign a contract identical to Matt Duchene's contract, despite out-scoring Duchene whilst shutting down the opponent's top lines and getting the defensive zone starts, etc? The fact that O'Reilly did Duchene's job better than Duchene, and led the team's defensive effort better than anyone else, can only mean one thing: duh, O'Reilly needs to sign an identical contract to Duchene!

If management blows this with O'Reilly, they're going to set this team back years. Why some of you are pushing for that, I don't know, but be careful what you wish for.
Wouldn't it depend on what we're getting in return?? lol

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01-20-2013, 03:45 PM
  #973
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
Yeah, O'Reilly sure does look like a greedy tyrant when we start inserting pictures of Horcoff and saying he's after a $5.5M+ paycheck, but where did this number even come from? When you strip an hyperbolic argument of hyperbole, there isn't much substance left.

There is clearly a huge difference between $3.5M and $5.5M, and the fact of the matter is, we don't know what O'Reilly is asking for. All we know is what has been offered: $3.5M. And I, like you, don't think it's unreasonable for O'Reilly to get paid more than that.
Couldn't have said it better myself.

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01-20-2013, 03:47 PM
  #974
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Someone go buy O'Reilly a drink and bring him back to Colorado already! Sheesh.

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01-20-2013, 03:48 PM
  #975
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
Again, those teams have a lot more talent and larger payrolls. The Avs don't have either of these luxuries. Those other teams have elite talent all over the roster, they can all afford to lose that top player and still be okay. Don't tell me you're seriously comparing Chicago, Vancouver, Washington, and Pittsburgh's situations with the Avs. All of those teams have spent to the cap or come very close. The Avs have only just spent past the cap floor this offseason.

Hell, you could even see the Avs somehow step up and make up for the absence of Forsberg during their Cup run. But again, the talent, depth, and payroll on that squad as opposed to the youth and meager payroll of this Avs team is worlds apart.

And Savard was never, ever Boston's best player while he was there.

If I'm wrong in predicting doom and gloom for the Avs without O'Reilly, fine. I'd be thrilled if I were proven wrong. But I think O'Reilly is too important for the Avs for them to be taken seriously without a player who makes an impact for the team in all situations.
They all had extremely important players miss significant amounts of time and still met expectations. It doesn't matter that the talent, depth, and payroll are different, because expectations increase to match that.

I think the Avs are more than capable of winning games and making the playoffs without any one player.

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