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Old
08-18-2012, 11:18 AM
  #1
MVW
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2012/2013 Point Projections

Assuming there is a full season next year, I thought we should have a thread with everyone's point projections as our roster stands now.

Here is how I see our line combo's assuming no other deals are made:

Tangs Cammy Iggy
Glencross Cervenka Hudler
Baertschi Backlund Stempniak
Comeau Stajan Jackman

Bo Wideman
Gio Brodie
Sarich Smith
Babchuk

Kipper
Irving

Point Totals:

Iginla-81
Cammy-79
Tangs-69
Hudler-49
Cervenka-46
Glencross-58
Baertschi-47
Backlund-41
Stempniak-32
Comeau-29
Stajan-26
Jackman-12

Bouwmeester-42
Wideman-49
Gio-46
Brodie-39
Sarich-16
Smith-26
Babchuk-22

Kipper-41 Wins

Notes: I see Glencross breaking 30 goals and getting close to 60pts, he is capable of it and he should hit that mark. I see Brodie and Backlund having a breakout season of sorts, at least taking that next step in their development. I think Iggy, Cammy and Tangs will perform quite well and Iggy will rebound nicely under Hartley. And lastly, I see Sven scoring the exact amount of points as his Jersey. If I'm right I'm going to bump this thread up!

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08-18-2012, 11:29 AM
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SmellOfVictory
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Assuming a full season of play, naturally:

Point Totals:

Iginla-79
Cammy-72
Tangs-69
Hudler-45
Cervenka-52
Glencross-46
Baertschi-58
Backlund-46
Stempniak-37
Comeau-29
Stajan-26
Jackman-12

Bouwmeester-35
Wideman-41
Gio-44
Brodie-29
Sarich-12
Smith-26
Babchuk-8 (unless he gets traded to another team mid-season)

Kipper-35 Wins
Irving-7 wins


Last edited by SmellOfVictory: 08-18-2012 at 04:36 PM.
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Old
08-18-2012, 11:35 AM
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TheJudge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVW View Post

Point Totals:

Iginla-81
Cammy-79
Tangs-69
Hudler-49
Cervenka-46
Glencross-58
Baertschi-47
Backlund-41
Stempniak-32
Comeau-29
Stajan-26
Jackman-12

Bouwmeester-42
Wideman-49
Gio-46
Brodie-39
Sarich-16
Smith-26
Babchuk-22

Kipper-41 Wins
That's some insane offense from the defense. I'd be blown away if that happened.

Using some basic math the team would need to score about 250 goals next year to get those point totals. Possible, but that'd put us top 5 in scoring for the league. I'm down

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08-18-2012, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
Assuming a full season of play, naturally:

Point Totals:

Iginla-79
Cammy-72
Tangs-69
Hudler-45
Cervenka-52
Glencross-46
Baertschi-58
Backlund-46
Stempniak-37
Comeau-29
Stajan-26
Jackman-12

Bouwmeester-35
Wideman-41
Gio-44
Brodie-39
Sarich-12
Smith-26
Babchuk-8 (unless he gets traded to another team mid-season)

Kipper-35 Wins
Irving-7 wins
Wait Brodie gets 39 points in his second year and Smith gets 26 in his?

I find it impossible to believe Brodie is in the top 30 for points for defenseman next year.

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08-18-2012, 11:57 AM
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I Hate Chris Butler
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Iginla - 83 points, 38 goals
Cammalleri - 70 points 33 goals
Tanguay - 69 points 24 goals

Wideman - 45 points 12 goals
Giordano - 41 points 8 goals
Bouwmeester - 36 points 6 goals

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08-18-2012, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJudge View Post
That's some insane offense from the defense. I'd be blown away if that happened.

Using some basic math the team would need to score about 250 goals next year to get those point totals. Possible, but that'd put us top 5 in scoring for the league. I'm down
I know, and thats exactly what I am expecting. All the elements are there. Wideman is always in the 40-50pt range, I think Bouwmeester's numbers will improve significantly under Hartley and possibly playing with Wideman. We also need to consider that Gio will hopefully rebound after missing significant time last year. Brodie is your prototypical offensive dman, and I am REALLY expecting him to breakout next season and he is definitely capable of it.

The haters will always hate on the Flames, but the fact is it has been a long time since we have had this much scoring depth throughout our lineup. Our best team we fielded in recent years was in 08/09, and our lineup this year definitely has the potential to be better. I expect us to be in the top 5-7 in scoring next season, defensively is where I have questions. If we can also be a sound defensive team, then we should see the playoffs.

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08-18-2012, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGleninator View Post
Wait Brodie gets 39 points in his second year and Smith gets 26 in his?

I find it impossible to believe Brodie is in the top 30 for points for defenseman next year.
I think it has more to do with minutes and PP time. Smith will be in a #6 or 7 role, while Brodie will be borderline top 4 and should see lots of PP time. His offensive skillset is also superior to Smith's IMO.

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08-18-2012, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVW View Post
I think it has more to do with minutes and PP time. Smith will be in a #6 or 7 role, while Brodie will be borderline top 4 and should see lots of PP time. His offensive skillset is also superior to Smith's IMO.
No I mean they are both way to high. As it is Brodie may not see pp time and with no pp time Smith will be lucky to get 15 points.

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08-18-2012, 01:43 PM
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Point Totals:

Iginla-74
Cammy-63
Tangs-61
Hudler-44
Cervenka-39
Glencross-52
Baertschi-43
Backlund-37
Stempniak-31
Comeau-27
Stajan-32
Jackman-11

Bouwmeester-35
Wideman-41
Gio-36
Brodie-24
Sarich-8
Smith-11
Babchuk-10

Kipper-32 Wins
Irving-10 wins

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08-18-2012, 01:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGleninator View Post
No I mean they are both way to high. As it is Brodie may not see pp time and with no pp time Smith will be lucky to get 15 points.
Obviously time will only tell, but I think Brodie will round out into being a 45-50pt+ dman down the road. He was the Heat's 2nd or 3rd leading scorer 2 seasons getting 34pts in 68 games on a team that had no offence. If Nemisz is your teams leading scorer, it won't be a very high scoring team. I think Brodie will crack 30pts next year for sure and actually be closer to 40.

Just my opinion...

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08-18-2012, 01:49 PM
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Here are my guesses, I'll put their 82 game pace beside.

FORWARDS

Jarome Iginla- 82GP- 33G - 42A - 75P (75/82)

Alex Tanguay- 70GP- 17G - 39A - 56P (66/82)

Mike Cammalleri- 71GP- 27G - 35A - 62P (71/82)

Curtis Glencross- 72GP- 22G - 21A - 43P (49/82)

Roman Cervenka- 80GP- 16G - 32A - 48P (49/82)

Jiri Hudler- 82GP- 19G - 24A - 43P (43/82)

Sven Baertschi- 65GP- 14G - 22A - 36P (45/82)

Mikael Backlund - 70GP - 11G - 22A - 33P (38/82)

Lee Stempniak - 70GP - 14G - 15A - 29P (34/82)

Blake Comeau - 65GP - 8G- 12A - 20P (25/82)

Matt Stajan - 75GP - 6G - 20A - 26P (28/82)

Tim Jackman - 65GP - 3G - 9A - 12P (15/82)

Lance Bouma - 20GP - 1G - 3A - 4P (15/82)


DEFENSE

Dennis Wideman - 80GP - 11G - 33A - 43P (44/82)

Jay Bouwmeester - 82GP - 5G - 30A - 35P (35/82)

Mark Giordano - 75GP - 9G - 28 A - 37P (39/82)

T.J. Brodie - 70GP - 5G - 19A - 24P (28/82)

Chris Butler - 70GP - 4G- 16A - 20P (23/82)

Cory Sarich - 65GP 1G - 9A - 10P (13/82)

Anton Babchuk - 25GP 3G - 3A - 6P (20/82)


GOALIES

Miikka Kiprusoff - 70GS - 2.49GAA - .918SV% - 37W 25L 8SOL - 5SO

Leland Irving - 12GS - 2.78GAA - .916SV% - 5W 5L 2SOL - 1SO



So according to my predictions the flames finish 42-30-10 good for 94 points. We finish with 228 Goals for and 207 against. So we should be right around 7-9th place again....

Edited for easier reading, and a couple small changes.


Last edited by superhakan: 08-18-2012 at 04:30 PM.
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08-18-2012, 01:51 PM
  #12
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Dammit, I knew I was missing someone. How did I forget Butler!

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08-18-2012, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVW View Post
Obviously time will only tell, but I think Brodie will round out into being a 45-50pt+ dman down the road. He was the Heat's 2nd or 3rd leading scorer 2 seasons getting 34pts in 68 games on a team that had no offence. If Nemisz is your teams leading scorer, it won't be a very high scoring team. I think Brodie will crack 30pts next year for sure and actually be closer to 40.

Just my opinion...
So you are telling me you think he is capable of being a top 15 point defenseman? No offense but I think that is vastly overrating him. He is most likely a 30ish point defenseman that is solid at both ends of the rink, that puts him around the top 50. There is no way I can see him getting over 30 this year especially when our pp might not include him as we will most likely have

Wideman - Tanguay
and
Gio - Jbo

as our pairings I just don't see him 25ish points at ES.

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08-18-2012, 02:55 PM
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I agree with MVW about our scoring depth from the blueline. Bouwmeester, Brodie, Wideman, and Giordano are capable of providing goals, but we lack physicality. I doubt we'll see that many points from the backend however.

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08-18-2012, 03:48 PM
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I see it playing out as the following, as a general overview, under a puck possession offensive system:

Tanguay - Stajan - Iginla plays against the top competitors, in two-way situations. Slightly out shot, but still put up respectable numbers.

Tanguay (18g - 38a) - Stajan (15g, 25a) - Iginla (25g, 31a)


Cammy - Cervenka - Hudler get mostly offensive starts against weak competition because they can't be trusted to handle tough loads.

Cammy (28g - 52a) - Cervenka (18g - 29a) - Hudler (21g - 23a)


Glencross - Backlund - Stempniak will be given a two-way role against average competition and will compete well. I expect this to be our best line as far as Corsi numbers goes.

Glencross (22 - 14a) - Backlund (12g - 20a) - Stempniak (14g - 19a)


Boumeester (10g - 35a) and Wideman (16g - 30a) should be very good offensively, but have poor Corsi and +/- stats because they can't clear out the net or hit guys off the puck.

Giordano (8g - 20a) is our best two-way defesemen, with Brodie (11g - 15a) mentoring him and becoming a good two-way defensemen too.

With injuries, I see Baertschi, Comeau, and Jones performing well as our top 9 call ups. I hope to see 40 goals between the three of them.

Bouma, Jackman, Aliu do OK as defensive energy forwards.

I see Byron, Smith, Horak, Babchuck, Sarich struggling for ice time.

All and all we should be top 5 in goals, bottom 15 in goals against. Optimistically looking for us to be in the 5th to 9th range in the conference all year, with Nashville, Pheonix, San Jose, and Red Wings slipping back in the standings, while Minny, Edmonton, and Dallas step forward. Kings face a cup-hangover problem, St. Louis and Vancouver lead the conference, but Anaheim and Colorado remain in average-bottom contention.

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08-18-2012, 03:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by superhakan View Post
Here are my guesses, I'll put their 82 game pace beside.

FORWARDS

Jarome Iginla- 82GP- 33G - 42A - 75P (75/82)

Alex Tanguay- 70GP- 17G - 39A - 56P (66/82)

Mike Cammalleri- 71GP- 27G - 35A - 62P (71/82)

Curtis Glencross- 72GP- 22G - 21A - 43P (49/82)

Roman Cervenka- 65GP- 13G - 20A - 33P (42/82)

Jiri Hudler- 82GP- 19G - 24A - 43P (43/82)

Sven Baertschi- 65GP- 14G - 22A - 36P (45/82)

Mikael Backlund - 70GP - 11G - 22A - 33P (38/82)

Lee Stempniak - 70GP - 14G - 15A - 29P (34/82)

Blake Comeau - 65GP - 8G - 12A - 20P (25/82)

Matt Stajan - 75GP - 7G - 19A - 26P (28/82)

Tim Jackman - 65GP - 3G - 9A - 12P (15/82)

Lance Bouma - 20GP - 1G - 3A - 4P (15/82)


DEFENSE

Dennis Wideman - 80GP - 11G - 33A - 43P (44/82)

Jay Bouwmeester - 82GP - 6G - 29A - 35P (35/82)

Mark Giordano - 75GP - 9G - 28 A - 37P (39/82)

T.J. Brodie - 70GP - 6G - 18A - 24P (28/82)

Chris Butler - 70GP - 4G - 16A - 20P (23/82)

Cory Sarich - 65GP 1G - 9A - 10P (13/82)

Anton Babchuk - 25GP 3G - 3A - 6P (20/82)


GOALIES

Miikka Kiprusoff - 70GS - 2.49GAA - .918SV% - 37W 25L 8SOL - 5SO

Leland Irving - 12GS - 2.78GAA - .916SV% - 5W5L 2SOL - 1SO



So according to my predictions the flames finish 42-30-10 good for 94 points. We finish with 228 Goals for and 207 against. So we should be right around 7-9th place again....
This is right around what I'm thinking we'll get. Except I imagine Irving will get 20 starts.

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08-18-2012, 03:57 PM
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@ Glen, I do. I don't think it is overrating him either. Brodie is an offensive dman in the purest form. He has had to work on all his other aspects of his game like strength and defensive zone play to become an NHL'er. As long as he is getting top 4 minutes and PP time, I see him getting alot points. Many times last season Brodie also was a catalyst in generating offence. Many of the plays he made last season we were not used to seeing from guys on our blueline. I really think there is alot there in terms of growth with Brodie and I don't expect it to be all that long before is our top producing dman.

Maybe I am overrating him, however thats exactly how I see him developing and I know he has all the tools to do it.

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08-18-2012, 04:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikael Backlund View Post
This is right around what I'm thinking we'll get. Except I imagine Irving will get 20 starts.
I can guarantee you he gets nowhere near that. We'd all like to see Kipper get some rest, its just not gonna happen.

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08-18-2012, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGleninator View Post
Wait Brodie gets 39 points in his second year and Smith gets 26 in his?

I find it impossible to believe Brodie is in the top 30 for points for defenseman next year.
Mine actually should've said 29. I wasn't very thorough. lol

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08-18-2012, 04:42 PM
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I can guarantee you he gets nowhere near that. We'd all like to see Kipper get some rest, its just not gonna happen.
Irving needs to play 20 games or he becomes UFA. We can't lose him because we have underplayed him. I'm sure Feaster knows this.

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08-18-2012, 05:01 PM
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Iginla- 33g 37a - 70 points
Cammy- 25g 30a - 55 points
Tangs- 17g 42a - 59 points
Hudler- 22g 23a - 45 points
Cervenka- 18g 17a - 35 points
Glencross- 28g 25a - 53 points
Baertschi- 16g 23a - 39 points
Backlund- 12g 25a - 37 points
Stempniak- 14g 14a - 28 points
Comeau- 6g 11a - 17 points
Stajan- 9g 20a 29 points
Jackman- 3g 5a - 8 points

Bouwmeester- 7g 25a - 32 points
Wideman- 13g 24a - 37 points
Gio- 10g 31a - 41 points
Brodie- 5g 22a - 27 points
Sarich- 1g 8a - 9 points
Butler- 3g 15a - 18 points
Smith- 1g 3a - 4 points (only plays when there are injuries)
Babchuk- 4g 5a - 9 points (see above)

Kipper-36 Wins 68 starts
Irving- 6 Wins 15 starts

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08-18-2012, 05:18 PM
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I can tell you this. You guys are all seriously underestimating Hudler's offensive ability.

He's going to post at minimum 22-28-50, probably something closer to 28-35-63.

He would have posted numbers approaching 70 this past season had Babcock actually used him at forward on the PP; he's absolutely lethal down low.

Furthermore, I think there's also a chance he ends up centering Tanguay and Iginla (or Glencross and Iginla). If he plays on Iginla's line, they could break 80 together.

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08-18-2012, 05:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVW View Post
@ Glen, I do. I don't think it is overrating him either. Brodie is an offensive dman in the purest form. He has had to work on all his other aspects of his game like strength and defensive zone play to become an NHL'er. As long as he is getting top 4 minutes and PP time, I see him getting alot points. Many times last season Brodie also was a catalyst in generating offence. Many of the plays he made last season we were not used to seeing from guys on our blueline. I really think there is alot there in terms of growth with Brodie and I don't expect it to be all that long before is our top producing dman.

Maybe I am overrating him, however thats exactly how I see him developing and I know he has all the tools to do it.
I am not disagreeing that he is a great offensive talent but I hard it extremely hard to believe that Brodie will be be on par with guys like Yandle, Weber, Boyle etc. Those guys need 250+ pp minutes in order to put up those kind of points as it stands for the next several years he will be behind Jbo, Gio, Wideman for those minutes (he may surpass Jbo) but there is no way he takes those minutes on this team with out significant changes. Time will certainly tell which one of us is right but I believe he is being overrated due to the fact he is the first defenseman since Dion to show top 4 offensive potential. But I will say his 6 points in 93 pp minutes shows he has the potential to put up high numbers at that pace he would of had 20.5 pp points in the same amount of time that it took Boyle to get 17.

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08-18-2012, 06:46 PM
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I remember when I saw Gio break into the NHL. I liked his game a lot, but I never really viewed as an offensive dman, rather more of a good overall dman. I think most hockey people would regard Gio as a 40ish point dman while in the prime of his career. Brodie has superior offensive skills compared to Gio at the start of his career. He also has the confidence to create and make plays that Gio did not. I really only saw Gio become dominant at times offensively just last season and specifically on the PP. My main point being, in time as Brodie develops he should surpass the offensive level that Gio is at today.

To me, I feel with the confidence this kid has, he may be only 2nd to Wideman as early as next season.

I realize I'm being quite optimistic, and a lot of things and opportunities need to happen for him to get there. But I'm a huge Brodie fan and I believe he will achieve that level.

Like you say though, only time will tell. I will stand by my prediction though that he breaks 30pts this season.

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08-18-2012, 06:50 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGleninator View Post
I am not disagreeing that he is a great offensive talent but I hard it extremely hard to believe that Brodie will be be on par with guys like Yandle, Weber, Boyle etc. Those guys need 250+ pp minutes in order to put up those kind of points as it stands for the next several years he will be behind Jbo, Gio, Wideman for those minutes (he may surpass Jbo) but there is no way he takes those minutes on this team with out significant changes. Time will certainly tell which one of us is right but I believe he is being overrated due to the fact he is the first defenseman since Dion to show top 4 offensive potential. But I will say his 6 points in 93 pp minutes shows he has the potential to put up high numbers at that pace he would of had 20.5 pp points in the same amount of time that it took Boyle to get 17.
The 2008-09 Red Wings are a good comparable for the Flames in this context. The Wings used Samuelsson on the point for the power play, leaving three defensemen; Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall. That season, the Wings had Marian Hossa on a one-year deal. The first unit was Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hossa-Lidstrom-Rafalski and the second unit was Franzen-Zetterberg-Hudler-Kronwall-Samuelsson. Samuelsson (40) was the only player on that unit to score under 51 total points.

The Flames have Iginla, Tanguay, Cammalleri, Hudler, Glencross as the top five; Stajan, Stempniak, and Comeau as guys who have shown in the recent past that they are capable of that level over one or more seasons, and finally Cervenka, Backlund and Baertschi as "potential" guys in that range.

That's a pretty solid lineup offensively. There's no reason for Calgary to not field two effective PP units. If it's Wideman/Tanguay and Giordano/Bouwmeester, then Brodie won't be getting points there. If Tangs is up front though, Brodie perhaps plays on the second unit. The first unit would be Iginla, Tanguay, and probably Cammalleri but maybe it ends up as Hudler or Cervenka. The second unit is probably Glencross, Cervenka, and Hudler in that instance. So both units are good enough to be first units, much like the 2008-09 Wings.

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