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Old
01-28-2013, 03:04 PM
  #201
struckbyaparkedcar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
An offersheet of 5.0 - 6.7 million per year would only cost one 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick?

Let's offersheet O'reilly?

We can live without a few picks, and could certainly replace most of them as we continue to purge the old core.

7 yrs / 38.5 million / 5.5 per
I thought any OS over 5 or 6 years in length was an automatic four firsts? Did that change?

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01-28-2013, 03:07 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
I thought any OS over 5 or 6 years in length was an automatic four firsts? Did that change?
Ahhh, its the total dollars divided by the years with a max of five years so a seven/38 offer would be 38 divided by 5 which I think may be in 4 firsts land but I'm not doing the math

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01-28-2013, 03:09 PM
  #203
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not sure at what point the Avs would let him walk without matching, but payback could be a ***** with future RFA's ahead in Cody, Ennis, Foligno, Grigs, Pysyk, Girgs etc

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01-28-2013, 03:09 PM
  #204
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I would offer 5 years at 6.2 mil a year and I bet they'd let him walk

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01-28-2013, 03:10 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Sabreality View Post
not sure at what point the Avs would let him walk without matching, but payback could be a ***** with future RFA's ahead in Cody, Ennis, Foligno, Grigs, Pysyk, Girgs etc
When do we get our payback on edmonton again?

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01-28-2013, 03:22 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by TheyAreGoodScaryGood View Post
I would offer 5 years at 6.2 mil a year and I bet they'd let him walk
I learned that offersheet contracts are divided by 5 years, even if term is 6 or 7 (for compensation purposes)

I'd still do it... I'd give up the 2 firsts, 2nd, and 3rd

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01-28-2013, 03:23 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
I thought any OS over 5 or 6 years in length was an automatic four firsts? Did that change?
over 5 years in length, and the total value is still divided by 5 for compensation


$1,110,249 or below - No Compensation
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 - 3rd round pick
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 - 2nd round pick
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

So my original offershet of 7 yrs/ 38.5 / 5.5 per
would have a 7.7 compensation (38.5/5)....

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Old
01-28-2013, 03:30 PM
  #208
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I guess my biggest qualm would be is RoR worth 5.5 mil per season if he tops out as a 50 - 60 points per season center? I realize he's already scored 55 pts in the league but if that's his yearly average is it enough for a defensively aware center that isn't exactly the big body they'd want? I'd be more apt to say hell with it, if he was sporting Boyles' frame.

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01-28-2013, 03:40 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
I guess my biggest qualm would be is RoR worth 5.5 mil per season if he tops out as a 50 - 60 points per season center? I realize he's already scored 55 pts in the league but if that's his yearly average is it enough for a defensively aware center that isn't exactly the big body they'd want? I'd be more apt to say hell with it, if he was sporting Boyles' frame.
I absolutely think he tops out at 50-60 points

Bottom line... he plays post season hockey. He can shut down an opponent, and he can do enough offensively to play a top 6 role.

He's bigger than Mike Richards and smaller than Ryan Kesler... and his game falls somewhere in between.... I think you NEED players like that to really compete. And they are just as difficult to find as "#1 centers"... that's why Jordan Staal and Mike Richards can fetch so much in trade... they aren't 80-100 pt centers... they score 50-70, and play a 200 ft, 20 minute game.

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01-28-2013, 03:41 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
I guess my biggest qualm would be is RoR worth 5.5 mil per season if he tops out as a 50 - 60 points per season center? I realize he's already scored 55 pts in the league but if that's his yearly average is it enough for a defensively aware center that isn't exactly the big body they'd want? I'd be more apt to say hell with it, if he was sporting Boyles' frame.
He and Landeskog played very difficult competition and dominated the competition in terms of puck possession. He also had one of the best GA/60 at 5-on-5, and was one of two forwards with a + rating in +/- per 60 (Landeskog). His defensive data points look pretty freaking good, especially when one considers age.

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01-28-2013, 03:42 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by TheyAreGoodScaryGood View Post
When do we get our payback on edmonton again?
True, probably goes to show what Darcy thinks about offer sheets, but I'd hope he would at least inquire about a trade before going that route, pretty steep price (multi 1sts/2nds)

Although, I'm not sure if Darcy has another Hodgson/Kassian up his sleeve as far as snagging a young guy that will be part of the future core. Cody was in a unique situation and Kassian was at least NHL 'ready' (with Foligno making him expendable). Guys like O'Reilly or a Hanzal seem to be pretty important pieces going foward for their respective clubs (even if RoR remains unsigned for now).

Not sure there is a 'help now' youngster out there that could be had for current Buffalo pieces (that we'd be willing to move) unless it started with Sekera.

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01-28-2013, 03:44 PM
  #212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
over 5 years in length, and the total value is still divided by 5 for compensation


$1,110,249 or below - No Compensation
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 - 3rd round pick
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 - 2nd round pick
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

So my original offershet of 7 yrs/ 38.5 / 5.5 per
would have a 7.7 compensation (38.5/5)....
If you want to stay in the one 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd range, you can effectively offer him up to $33.625m. If you want to improve the chances that Colorado doesn't match, make it over five years ($6.6m, approx.); if you want to make it more cap friendly, do six years ($5.6m, approx.). I think Colorado begrudgingly matches the latter.

You can probably recoup about two 2nds and a 3rd off Leo and Regehr. It's certainly a roll of the dice in a draft class that is looking pretty good. The question is whether they want to expedite a rebuild.

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01-28-2013, 03:46 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Sabreality View Post
True, probably goes to show what Darcy thinks about offer sheets, but I'd hope he would at least inquire about a trade before going that route, pretty steep price (multi 1sts/2nds)

Although, I'm not sure if Darcy has another Hodgson/Kassian up his sleeve as far as snagging a young guy that will be part of the future core. Cody was in a unique situation and Kassian was at least NHL 'ready' (with Foligno making him expendable). Guys like O'Reilly or a Hanzal seem to be pretty important pieces going foward for their respective clubs (even if RoR remains unsigned for now).

Not sure there is a 'help now' youngster out there that could be had for current Buffalo pieces (that we'd be willing to move) unless it started with Sekera.
With a much better collection of young talent than we had 3 years ago... we could certainly survive the loss of a handful of high picks...
especially since we should be able to replace some of them quickly at the deadline (Regehr 1st, Leopold 2nd) and possibly next year if we (dare i say it) move on from the remaining 3 rochester core guys.

I'd rather trade picks than players like Sekera, Ennis, Girgensons, Pysyk, etc and obviously, Hodgson, Grigs, Myers, Armia are untouchable

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01-28-2013, 03:48 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
If you want to stay in the one 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd range, you can effectively offer him up to $33.625m. If you want to improve the chances that Colorado doesn't match, make it over five years ($6.6m, approx.); if you want to make it more cap friendly, do six years ($5.6m, approx.). I think Colorado begrudgingly matches the latter.

You can probably recoup about two 2nds and a 3rd off Leo and Regehr. It's certainly a roll of the dice in a draft class that is looking pretty good. The question is whether they want to expedite a rebuild.
agreed on all points.

I'm comfortable in the "two firsts" compensation range. I agree that being able to replace some picks with those 2 makes it more enticing. Let alone the idea that we could replace a 1st later if we moved on from 1 or 2 of the remaining 3 Roch Core guys(we probably have to)

Oreilly fits right into the rebuild at 21

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01-28-2013, 03:55 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
With a much better collection of young talent than we had 3 years ago... we could certainly survive the loss of a handful of high picks...
especially since we should be able to replace some of them quickly at the deadline (Regehr 1st, Leopold 2nd) and possibly next year if we (dare i say it) move on from the remaining 3 rochester core guys.

I'd rather trade picks than players like Sekera, Ennis, Girgensons, Pysyk, etc and obviously, Hodgson, Grigs, Myers, Armia are untouchable
great point as far as recouping some of those picks...now if only it could really happen.

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01-28-2013, 04:42 PM
  #216
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This team is going to be picking in the top 10. I want nothing to do with losing that pick. This years draft is as deep as I can remember. Yakupov would go at 5 in this years draft. That's how deep it is.

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01-28-2013, 05:38 PM
  #217
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This team is going to be picking in the top 10. I want nothing to do with losing that pick. This years draft is as deep as I can remember. Yakupov would go at 5 in this years draft. That's how deep it is.
He'd go #3, maybe #2 let's not get crazy here.

The Avs would absolutely not match any offersheet averaging 5.5 Million+ for O'Reily. There's much more going on with that situation than money. It would force their hand in actually parting with him, but why offersheet him when he's probably being shopped?

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01-28-2013, 08:43 PM
  #218
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He'd go #3, maybe #2 let's not get crazy here.

The Avs would absolutely not match any offersheet averaging 5.5 Million+ for O'Reily. There's much more going on with that situation than money. It would force their hand in actually parting with him, but why offersheet him when he's probably being shopped?
Because the price in trade would be much steeper than a 1st,2nd and 3rd

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01-28-2013, 08:47 PM
  #219
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Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
This team is going to be picking in the top 10. I want nothing to do with losing that pick. This years draft is as deep as I can remember. Yakupov would go at 5 in this years draft. That's how deep it is.
Even some of the most well-regarded drafts have busts or average players going in the top-12. The 2003 draft had Zherdev (4) and Jessiman (12), as well as A. Kostitsyn (10). The 2008 draft had Filatov (6) and Kyle Beach (11), and some decent players like Luke Schenn (5), Colin Wilson (7), Mikkel Boedker (8), and Josh Bailey (9)--far from franchise-changing players.

Just because this draft looks good on paper doesn't mean that we'll absolutely be missing out on a stud.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moskau View Post
He'd go #3, maybe #2 let's not get crazy here.

The Avs would absolutely not match any offersheet averaging 5.5 Million+ for O'Reily. There's much more going on with that situation than money. It would force their hand in actually parting with him, but why offersheet him when he's probably being shopped?
First, because it takes teams with better systems and assets than us out of the equation, and makes it an us-or-Colorado proposition--I can live with that. Making the safe presumption that Colorado would probably prefer sending him East, I don't want to give a team like Ottawa an opportunity to put together a package around some of their many quality young players. Ditto Boston. Even teams like Florida will outbid us.

Second, because I don't think it's that big of a deal if we miss out on a 1st rounder, and we have enough of the type of players you get in the 2nd and 3rd round (2nd/3rd pairing defensemen, forwards who can play in the NHL but may not be impact players). There's no guarantee that we'll get a player in 1st round that'll ever be as good as O'Reilly is at 21. And it's been said before, but he remedies what is currently a terribly-constructed center corps based on their similar strengths. Also, I think he'd be a good influence on Girgensons.

Third, we can flip assets like Leo and Regehr at the deadline. At minimum, those guys return at least two 2nd rounders, and it's still conservative to think they can fetch an additional 3rd. So you can recoup most of the draft assets you gave up. Honestly, what Sabres fan says no to this deal:

In:

Ryan O'Reilly
2013 2nd rounder

Out:

Robyn Regehr
Jordan Leopold
2013 1st rounder

I'd rather have ROR than two or three 2nds this year that will take four years to develop, if they ever make the NHL at all.

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01-28-2013, 08:54 PM
  #220
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I'd do regher, leopold, 1st for O'Reilly, 2nd easily but would the avs? Unlikely, they have no interest in Leopold given he played there before

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01-28-2013, 09:12 PM
  #221
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I'd do regher, leopold, 1st for O'Reilly, 2nd easily but would the avs? Unlikely, they have no interest in Leopold given he played there before
Zip was saying we'd lose a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd round pick offersheeting O'Reilly, but if we flipped Leopold and Regehr in seperate deals we could easily get a 2nd for each. Thus we would lose a 1st and a 3rd round pick, gain a 2nd round pick, and get O'Reilly. Sign me up.

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01-28-2013, 09:23 PM
  #222
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Even some of the most well-regarded drafts have busts or average players going in the top-12. The 2003 draft had Zherdev (4) and Jessiman (12), as well as A. Kostitsyn (10). The 2008 draft had Filatov (6) and Kyle Beach (11), and some decent players like Luke Schenn (5), Colin Wilson (7), Mikkel Boedker (8), and Josh Bailey (9)--far from franchise-changing players.

Just because this draft looks good on paper doesn't mean that we'll absolutely be missing out on a stud.



First, because it takes teams with better systems and assets than us out of the equation, and makes it an us-or-Colorado proposition--I can live with that. Making the safe presumption that Colorado would probably prefer sending him East, I don't want to give a team like Ottawa an opportunity to put together a package around some of their many quality young players. Ditto Boston. Even teams like Florida will outbid us.

Second, because I don't think it's that big of a deal if we miss out on a 1st rounder, and we have enough of the type of players you get in the 2nd and 3rd round (2nd/3rd pairing defensemen, forwards who can play in the NHL but may not be impact players). There's no guarantee that we'll get a player in 1st round that'll ever be as good as O'Reilly is at 21. And it's been said before, but he remedies what is currently a terribly-constructed center corps based on their similar strengths. Also, I think he'd be a good influence on Girgensons.

Third, we can flip assets like Leo and Regehr at the deadline. At minimum, those guys return at least two 2nd rounders, and it's still conservative to think they can fetch an additional 3rd. So you can recoup most of the draft assets you gave up. Honestly, what Sabres fan says no to this deal:

In:

Ryan O'Reilly
2013 2nd rounder

Out:

Robyn Regehr
Jordan Leopold
2013 1st rounder

I'd rather have ROR than two or three 2nds this year that will take four years to develop, if they ever make the NHL at all.
This would be awesome

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01-28-2013, 09:53 PM
  #223
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Originally Posted by is the answer jesus View Post
Zip was saying we'd lose a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd round pick offersheeting O'Reilly, but if we flipped Leopold and Regehr in seperate deals we could easily get a 2nd for each. Thus we would lose a 1st and a 3rd round pick, gain a 2nd round pick, and get O'Reilly. Sign me up.
Ahhh I see, didn't read the whole post, my bad

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01-28-2013, 10:15 PM
  #224
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I know we wouldn't make this big of a trade within the division but theoretically would you make a deal based around Myers and stafford for gardiner and kessel?

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01-28-2013, 10:20 PM
  #225
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I know we wouldn't make this big of a trade within the division but theoretically would you make a deal based around Myers and stafford for gardiner and kessel?
Nope

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