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Round 2, Vote 10 (HOH Top Goaltenders final round)

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Old
01-20-2013, 09:19 PM
  #126
Canadiens1958
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Not so fast.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Is there any goalie available other than Lundqvist or Thomas who has any case for "best goalie of his generation?" Or does Thomas count more as part of the older Brodeur generation because of when he was born, rather than when he peaked?

I realize that someone from a generation that is only halfway through their careers can't be rated over the best of a generation that is over, but he has to be rated above guys who were the 5th-7th best of their generations, which basically what we have left otherwise, right?
Let's take a hypothetical top six goalies every season from the start to the O6 era to date and rate their skills. Into the mid eighties each of the top six would have individual skill ratings ranging from very good to elite to innovator.

Conversely from the mid 1980's onwards you would have top 6 goalies each season that would have certain skills rated at the average to poor(fail- equipmemt enhanced, compensated, aided, etc).

Should a present day goalie, regardless of age or provenance, with a few average or fail skills be rated highly just because in any given season there is always a top six? Especially if other eras were at least six deep in goalies with very good to innovator level skills.

Better yet name a NHL goalie with innovator level skills since the mid 1980s.


Last edited by Canadiens1958: 01-20-2013 at 09:20 PM. Reason: Caps
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01-20-2013, 09:27 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Better yet name a NHL goalie with innovator level skills since the mid 1980s.
I'll assume that you're counting Patrick Roy, Ron Hextall, and Dominik Hasek as part of the mid-1980s generation.

Martin Brodeur.

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01-20-2013, 09:33 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Better yet name a NHL goalie with innovator level skills since the mid 1980s.
Patrick Roy is the obvious choice. Martin Brodeur and Dominik Hasek were innovators in their own ways.

But we aren't talking about goalies of that calibre now. How was Dave Kerr or Al Rollins or Gerry Cheevers an innovator?

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01-20-2013, 09:51 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Playoff numbers from 2011 and 2012 are not easily available, and there is no point in posting the numbers through 2010. But Thomas definitely has a playoff advantage.
I'd still like to see them if you have them.

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01-20-2013, 10:08 PM
  #130
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I'd still like to see them if you have them.
Playoff GVTs 2006-2010 by season:

Thomas: DNP, DNP, +1.2, + 7.4, DNP. Total = +8.6
Lundqvist: -4.1, +3.4, +0.7, -0.1, DNP. Total = -0.1

TCG emailed Tom Awad and got Thomas' GVT for 2011 = +13.9.

I don't have any more numbers, but from eyeballing the save percentages and GP,, my educated guess is about +2 for Lundqvist in 2011, +10 for Lundqvist in 2012, and +3 for Thomas in 2012. But those are really just semi-educated guesses.

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01-20-2013, 10:11 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Playoff GVTs 2006-2010 by season:

Thomas: DNP, DNP, +1.2, + 7.4, DNP. Total = +8.6
Lundqvist: -4.1, +3.4, +0.7, -0.1, DNP. Total = -0.1

TCG emailed Tom Awad and got Thomas' GVT for 2011 = +13.9.

I don't have any more numbers, but from eyeballing the save percentages and GP,, my educated guess is about +2 for Lundqvist in 2011, +10 for Lundqvist in 2012, and +3 for Thomas in 2012. But those are really just semi-educated guesses.
Tim Thomas' GVT was 13.9 prior to Games 6 and 7 (73 saves on 75 shots).

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=981


And I'm not sure I would buy Lundqvist's 2012 being that high.

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01-20-2013, 10:13 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Patrick Roy is the obvious choice. Martin Brodeur and Dominik Hasek were innovators in their own ways.

But we aren't talking about goalies of that calibre now. How was Dave Kerr or Al Rollins or Gerry Cheevers an innovator?
Kerr was hailed as an acrobatic goalie of epic levels... if that counts.

Besides, it's a bit tough to put a generation tag on Dave Kerr. If anything, he's closer to Bill Durnan than to Tiny Thompson. Yet never played pro hockey at the same time than Durnan.

If anything, I see Dave Kerr as the second best of his generation (who obviously drops to third best, as Broda played for a while after Kerr retired). The best would obviously be Brimsek.

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01-20-2013, 10:14 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Tim Thomas' GVT was 13.9 prior to Games 6 and 7 (73 saves on 75 shots).

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=981


And I'm not sure I would buy Lundqvist's 2012 being that high.
.931 save percentage over 20 games is pretty impressive. Remember, the Rangers went the distance in the first two rounds, which gives a goalie who is playing well more games to rack up cumulative numbers. Thomas only played 5 more playoff games in 2011 than Lundqvist in 2012.

I don't know, maybe 10ish is too high, maybe 8ish or 9ish is a better estimate. I honestly don't care so much.

For whatever reason, Tom Awad basically dropped the ball on 2011 and 2012 playoff numbers.


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01-20-2013, 10:16 PM
  #134
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Now We Are Onto Something.

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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
I'll assume that you're counting Patrick Roy, Ron Hextall, and Dominik Hasek as part of the mid-1980s generation.

Martin Brodeur.
Define the innovator skills of each of the four listed. We better take this to a new thread because this has the potential for a great discussion.

PS. Just back from a long trip to Montreal thru a storm. So may
be on for may be the next 30 minutes.


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01-20-2013, 10:20 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Define the innovator skills of each of the four listed. We better take this to a new thread because this has the potential for a great discussion.

PS. Just back from a long trip to Montreal thru a storm. So may be on for may be the next 30 minutes.
Completely off-topic -- There's a storm in the area?

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01-20-2013, 11:01 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by MXD View Post
Completely off-topic -- There's a storm in the area?
Journal de Montreal has the weather/storm as their lead story.

www.journaldemontreal.com.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/201...e-de-vehicules

The Gazette has a later release.

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01-20-2013, 11:47 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
.931 save percentage over 20 games is pretty impressive. Remember, the Rangers went the distance in the first two rounds, which gives a goalie who is playing well more games to rack up cumulative numbers. Thomas only played 5 more playoff games in 2011 than Lundqvist in 2012.

I don't know, maybe 10ish is too high, maybe 8ish or 9ish is a better estimate. I honestly don't care so much.

For whatever reason, Tom Awad basically dropped the ball on 2011 and 2012 playoff numbers.
Is that why I feel like I'm buying snake oil with this GVT business?


My overall point is this: Henrik Lundqvist and Tim Thomas basically offer the same strength on a per game basis in the regular season (GVT has it at Thomas by a negligible amount). So basically, it comes down to choosing between a goaltender who can play 15 more games per season but performs slightly worse by that standard in the playoffs

Lundqvist Playoff SPCT vs. Season SPCT: -.003

or a goaltender who preforms significantly better in the playoffs than that standard

Thomas Playoff SPCT vs. Season SPCT: +.012

and already has an all-time great playoff run that resulted in the league championship. And was the best goaltender of the season twice - both statistically

2009: .007 lead over 2nd place; .023 lead over backup
2011: .008 lead over 2nd place; .020 lead over backup


and critically

2009: 73.3% first-place Vezina votes; 78.6% first-place All-Star votes
2011: 56.7% first-place Vezina votes; 73.6% first-place All-Star votes


with only an injury-year in-between. And the major reason why Boston insisted on Thomas not playing as much as he could is because they knew they needed to have another goalie lined up because of his age. It doesn't mean he can't play a string of games at a high level: 38 out of 41 (2006), 25 games in 62 days (2011 playoffs). The Rangers not needing a backup plan the way the Bruins did does not speak about the ability of either man.


40% of Lundqvist's playoff games have been less than stellar (sub-.900). He consistently blows 2-1 series leads with mediocre (2012) or abysmal (2009) followup games. His Olympic Gold was with a .907 when he was the seventh-best starting goaltender in the statistic - behind starters from Finland, Russia, Switzerland, Canada, Slovakia, and Kazakhstan. His next trip to the Olympics saw him let in 4 goals on 14 shots as soon as the elimination round began - despite shutting out everyone at round robin.

Lundqvist has not proven himself as a clutch goaltender. Lundqvist has not proven himself as a playoff goaltender Thomas has done both. Thomas digs his teams out of 0-2 and 1-3 series deficits routinely.

Down 0-2 to Montreal in 2008. Stops 85 of 88 over the next three games.
Down 1-3 to Carolina in 2009. Stops 50 of 52 over the next two games.
Down 0-2 to Montreal in 2011. Stops 112 of 119 over the next three games.
Down 0-2 to Vancouver in 2011. Stops 175 of 179 over the next five games.

It's not all team effects; not every good-to-great goaltender could succeed to this level in Boston. It's not as if Rask had a playoff showing in 2010 as good as any of Tim Thomas' playoffs. And the Flyers destroyed Rask in those last four games of the infamous comeback.


At this point of their careers, Tim Thomas should be conclusively ahead of Henrik Lundqvist and the rest of the 2006-2013 goaltenders. Close in the regular season, but the playoffs have to count for something. The point of the NHL regular season is to prepare for the playoffs. Tim Thomas makes up that 15 GP per regular season gap by performing at a level in the playoffs of some of our top-seven goaltenders.

Henrik Lundqvist will one day be up there with Ed Belfour and the rest of the top-20. Maybe higher, maybe slightly lower. But when was the last time we saw a playoff goaltender like Tim Thomas? When was the last time we saw a goaltender with two peak seasons like that? The answer to my first question is our #1 goaltender, and the answer to my second question is our #2 goaltender.

If Henrik Lundqvist is really a #1 vote, then Tim Thomas should be right there with him.

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01-21-2013, 03:52 AM
  #138
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You do make a good case for Thomas. One issue with Thomas is that he has such a weird career that he's really hard to compare directly to anyone. Lundqvist has a much more normal career curve, and I think he compares favorably to the older goalies still available (and I honestly think he compares favorably to already added goalies like Giacomin and Vachon). But maybe it's a good thing that it looks like both of them are likely to make the cut.

I still think Boston is a pretty favorable situation for a goalie to put up great statistics, from the system on to the fact that they have a great backup who can take some of the load off.

And don't forget that Thomas is a horrendous puck handler, which has to hurt Boston's possession game. Not that Lundqvist brings anything positive in that regards, but I find Thomas' puck handling so poor that it's actually a negative. It's not a big factor, but I think it's a real one.


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01-21-2013, 11:25 AM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
And don't forget that Thomas is a horrendous puck handler, which has to hurt Boston's possession game. Not that Lundqvist brings anything positive in that regards, but I find Thomas' puck handling so poor that it's actually a negative. It's not a big factor, but I think it's a real one.
I think Lundqvist's puckhandling is a negative too. I know the Pens announcers have said in the past that Lundqvist admits he hates leaving his cage, but I found some articles rather than citing my recollections.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sports Illustrated - 4/16/2012
Coaches would prefer Lundqvist take some heat off his defensemen by corralling more of the pucks that wind around the boards, but he is a notoriously poor puckhandler. He puts it more succinctly: "I suck." He prefers discretion to, say, the mad adventures of Patrick Roy.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...09/3/index.htm

Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Post - 1/8/2011
"I'm on a streak," joked Lundqvist, whose ability to move the puck has improved.

"The last thing Glen [Sather ] told me before I went home for the summer was that I have to be better around the net [handling the puck]," the goaltender said. "I don't know if I'm better passing the puck, but I'm better the way I place in the puck for the defense in our own end.

"I'm not always great, but I have more confidence."
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/range...#ixzz1AUNRYTRW
So much for his confidence one year later

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01-21-2013, 11:31 AM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
I think Lundqvist's puckhandling is a negative too. I know the Pens announcers have said in the past that Lundqvist admits he hates leaving his cage, but I found some articles rather than citing my recollections.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...09/3/index.htm


http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/range...#ixzz1AUNRYTRW
So much for his confidence one year later
As bad as Thomas, though?

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01-21-2013, 11:35 AM
  #141
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As bad as Thomas, though?
Don't know enough about how bad Thomas is at it honestly. I just know Hank sucks at it, before he said so himself.

Either way in the scope of this project I wouldn't try to elevate one over the other in that regard. I think they're both deficient compared to other all-time greats.

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01-21-2013, 11:40 AM
  #142
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Don't know enough about how bad Thomas is at it honestly. I just know Hank sucks at it, before he said so himself.

Either way in the scope of this project I wouldn't try to elevate one over the other in that regard. I think they're both deficient compared to other all-time greats.
I disagree. I see Lundqvist as basically your typical immobile butterfly goalie (such a boring style), but Thomas as someone who outright has adventures with the puck.

It's a small part of their resumes, but it's something.

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01-21-2013, 03:29 PM
  #143
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I disagree. I see Lundqvist as basically your typical immobile butterfly goalie (such a boring style), but Thomas as someone who outright has adventures with the puck.

It's a small part of their resumes, but it's something.
Have to agree here.

Thomas is brutal with the puck.

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01-21-2013, 04:30 PM
  #144
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Yeah, Thomas is a poor skater and a very poor puckhandler, so any time he ends up out of the net, it's usually a major adventure. Lundqvist understands his limitations, doesn't really press his luck. Part of Thomas' issue - besides his lack of mechanics for most things - is that he has no anticipation. He can't see the play develop well enough to make a pass under any sort of duress. Lundqvist has very good anticipation skills, but obviously didn't learn the technique, in fact, I'm struggling to think of many Swedish goalies that are handy with the puck...

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01-21-2013, 06:29 PM
  #145
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It seems like Connell, Lundqvist, and Thomas all have a pretty good shot at making the cut.

Are there any specific arguments for or against any of them that haven't yet been made?

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01-21-2013, 06:34 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
It seems like Connell, Lundqvist, and Thomas all have a pretty good shot at making the cut.

Are there any specific arguments for or against any of them that haven't yet been made?
I think Lundqvist is a lock. I don't believe the other two are necessarily locks, personally.

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01-21-2013, 07:00 PM
  #147
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Does anyone have Kiprusoff's home/road splits by season easily available? BM67, ContrarianGoaltender? Thanks.

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01-22-2013, 05:22 PM
  #148
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Does anyone have Kiprusoff's home/road splits by season easily available? BM67, ContrarianGoaltender? Thanks.
I have his post-lockout numbers, and I added in 2003-04, I imagine those are probably the years you would be most interested in.

YearHome MinHome SAHome SVHome SV%Home SA/60Road MinRoad SARoad SVRoad SV%Road SA/60
20041335542508.93724.4966424393.92726.3
200623371014953.94026.02043937847.90427.5
2007234910891006.92427.8207011011003.91131.9
2008245711191023.91427.31941977876.89730.2
200923281064965.90727.420901091981.89931.3
201022251017937.92127.420101018935.91830.4
201122321011919.90927.21924924834.90328.8
2012231911511061.92229.81809889817.91929.5
Total1758180077372.92127.31485473616686.90829.7

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01-22-2013, 05:28 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by ContrarianGoaltender View Post
I have his post-lockout numbers, and I added in 2003-04, I imagine those are probably the years you would be most interested in.

YearHome MinHome SAHome SVHome SV%Home SA/60Road MinRoad SARoad SVRoad SV%Road SA/60
20041335542508.93724.4966424393.92726.3
200623371014953.94026.02043937847.90427.5
2007234910891006.92427.8207011011003.91131.9
2008245711191023.91427.31941977876.89730.2
200923281064965.90727.420901091981.89931.3
201022251017937.92127.420101018935.91830.4
201122321011919.90927.21924924834.90328.8
2012231911511061.92229.81809889817.91929.5
Total1758180077372.92127.31485473616686.90829.7
Wow. I've argued that Kipper was probably the best goalie in 2003-04 but didn't get a chance to win the starting job soon enough to have a shot at the Vezina or 1st Team AS. And his numbers in 2003-04 look somewhat legit. But wow, that split is 2005-06 makes that season (which on paper is the best of his career) look highly questionable. On the other hand, 2005-06 wasn't exactly the best season for goaltending in general, so maybe he still wins the Vezina anyway. But it sure makes his Vezina win look like a pretty weak one.

The argument for adding Kipper is that he was the best goalie in the second half of 2003-04 and for all of 2005-06, while missing a potential great season in 2004-05. Then had quite a few more seasons as workhorse.

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01-22-2013, 06:10 PM
  #150
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Wow. I've argued that Kipper was probably the best goalie in 2003-04 but didn't get a chance to win the starting job soon enough to have a shot at the Vezina or 1st Team AS. And his numbers in 2003-04 look somewhat legit. But wow, that split is 2005-06 makes that season (which on paper is the best of his career) look highly questionable. On the other hand, 2005-06 wasn't exactly the best season for goaltending in general, so maybe he still wins the Vezina anyway. But it sure makes his Vezina win look like a pretty weak one.
Maybe, depends on exactly what team factors might have been in play. One thing about Kipper's Vezina year is that the Flames were much more disciplined at home than on the road (10th in fewest PPOA at home and 2nd in fewest PPGA vs. 26th in PPOA and 24th in PPGA on the road). Given how skewed that season was because of penalty calls, that would probably have accounted for some of the split. And it should be noted that the season average in 2005-06 was just .901, indicating that .904 on the road was far from terrible, although it did rank just 18th out of starting goalies.

The Flames were 30-7-4 at home compared to 16-18-7 on the road. The question is whether Kiprusoff was driving that result with his play or whether there were team factors involved. The Flames had a pattern of playing lower scoring games at home and generally posting better home records than road records. Obviously part of that was influenced by Kiprusoff himself, but it looks like the team did play more conservatively at home given that they often scored more goals on the road as well (an unusual split):

2003-04: 93 GF, 85 GA at home, 107 GF, 91 GA on road
2005-06: 108 GF, 70 GA at home, 108 GF, 123 GA on road
2006-07: 142 GF, 91 GA at home, 113 GF, 130 GA on road
2007-08: 111 GF, 99 GA at home, 115 GF, 125 GA on road
2008-09: 146 GF, 108 GA at home, 105 GF, 138 GA on road
2009-10: 95 GF, 95 GA at home, 106 GF, 108 GA on road

How much that might have influenced Kipper's stats is an open question. Obviously the home/road discrepancy in GA was pretty extreme in 2005-06. Kiprusoff had a 1.57 GAA at home and a 2.64 on the road. You can assume a pretty large home scorer bias and he would still end up with pretty amazing stats in Calgary, meaning he must have been doing something right, although the road stats are much less impressive.

I imagine some of that extreme split was probably just variance, him running a bit hot/lucky at home vs. cold/more unlucky on the road. Switch 10 goals from the road column to the home column and Kipper would have had a fairly normal .930/.915 split and ranked in the top 5 in the league in road save %.

Overall, though, it does look like Kipper got a bit of help at home in 2005-06, whether from his home scorer or perhaps more probably from having a team that was much more disciplined and better defensively in their own rink. With that question mark and Kipper's overall record of mediocre road save percentages, I think there are a few too many warning signs to put him in the top 40.


Last edited by ContrarianGoaltender: 01-22-2013 at 06:16 PM.
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