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Colorado/Washington

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Old
01-18-2013, 12:57 AM
  #1
dahrougem2
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Colorado/Washington

To Colorado:

Karl Alzner
Joel Ward
2013 2nd Round Pick




To Washington:

Ryan O'Reilly
Jan Hejda
2013 1st Round Pick


This is assuming he doesn't want to sign in Colorado, which nobody knows. I love Alzner, I feel he'd make the perfect partner for Erik Johnson but I don't know if Caps fans would like to see him leave, I know he was a stud watching him last year in the playoffs especially vs the Bruins shutting down Lucic with Carlson.

Now, hypothetically speaking, is the value there?

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Old
01-18-2013, 12:59 AM
  #2
Ashasx
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Not good for Colorado.

I personally value ROR above Alzner
Joel Ward has negative value with that contract
1st > 2nd

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Old
01-18-2013, 12:59 AM
  #3
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Value is there but Alzner is really a nonstarter. He's our most important defenseman IMO.

Only reason I don't want McPhee to offersheet O'Reilly is because Sherman would throw Alzner a 6 million per offersheet next summer.

Something around Orlov is probably more realistic.

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01-18-2013, 01:04 AM
  #4
dahrougem2
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Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
Not good for Colorado.

I personally value ROR above Alzner
Joel Ward has negative value with that contract
1st > 2nd
I value ROR above Alzner too, but with the centre depth the Avs have and the need for a top pairing, left handed d-man now (Siemens may turn into that guy, or he could turn into Ryan O'Byrne for all we know, he's still developing), I feel like the trade benefits Colorado. I threw Joel Ward in there because Colorado is low in payroll and giving up Hejda we need to take some back

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01-18-2013, 01:06 AM
  #5
Ashasx
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Originally Posted by dahrougem2 View Post
I value ROR above Alzner too, but with the centre depth the Avs have and the need for a top pairing, left handed d-man now (Siemens may turn into that guy, or he could turn into Ryan O'Byrne for all we know, he's still developing), I feel like the trade benefits Colorado. I threw Joel Ward in there because Colorado is low in payroll and giving up Hejda we need to take some back
That's fair, but I just don't see Colorado giving up ROR and a 1st round pick in the same trade.

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Old
01-18-2013, 01:09 AM
  #6
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I'd pass if I am the Avs. I like Alzner but not sure if I'd want to give ROR for him and swapping Hejda for Ward hurts more than it helps and after not having a 1st last year I really don't want to trade ours again.

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Old
01-18-2013, 01:10 AM
  #7
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Alzner is pretty much the ideal partner for all the Johnsons, Pietrangelos, Bogosians, Karlssons, Subbans, Larssons or Myerss and out there. All the teams that have a young top pairing offensively inclined RD that are constantly looking for a defensively excellent partner for one to form their own version of the Suter-Weber pairing. He's a much rarer player than O'Reilly. His defensive hockey IQ may be best in the league, easily top 5. You don't really get to appreciate it unless you watch him play every game, and then watch Jeff Schultz come on the next shift who has a similar build and plays a similar style and just botches it horribly.

I feel like Colorado would jump on it, this would solve their X-Johnson problem for the next decade. They jumped on Varlamov when that was viewed as a permanent high end solution.

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Old
01-18-2013, 01:20 AM
  #8
dahrougem2
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Alzner is pretty much the ideal partner for all the Johnsons, Pietrangelos, Bogosians, Karlssons, Subbans, Larssons or Myerss and out there. All the teams that have a young top pairing offensively inclined RD that are constantly looking for a defensively excellent partner for one to form their own version of the Suter-Weber pairing. He's a much rarer player than O'Reilly. His defensive hockey IQ may be best in the league, easily top 5. You don't really get to appreciate it unless you watch him play every game, and then watch Jeff Schultz come on the next shift who has a similar build and plays a similar style and just botches it horribly.

I feel like Colorado would jump on it, this would solve their X-Johnson problem for the next decade. They jumped on Varlamov when that was viewed as a permanent high end solution.
I know he's good, but I wouldn't go that far. In my opinion, I value Jon Carlson more so than Karl Alzner, which is why I included Alzner and not Carlson, although Alzner shooting left handed makes the choice much easier. And Johnson isn't necessarily an offensively inclined defenseman, he's more of a two-way defenseman but the problem with Colorado is that there is nobody to play with, everyone else is either a 3-6 d-man or a prospect

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01-18-2013, 01:27 AM
  #9
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Originally Posted by dahrougem2 View Post
I know he's good, but I wouldn't go that far. In my opinion, I value Jon Carlson more so than Karl Alzner, which is why I included Alzner and not Carlson, although Alzner shooting left handed makes the choice much easier. And Johnson isn't necessarily an offensively inclined defenseman, he's more of a two-way defenseman but the problem with Colorado is that there is nobody to play with, everyone else is either a 3-6 d-man or a prospect
Carlson is a much more common quantity. Hell, we have 3 of him - Green, Carlson, Orlov. You've got at least 3 of those types with Johnson, Elliot and Barrie and only Siemens in the Alzner mold, and he doesn't really have the same IQ either.

Also don't confuse defensive IQ with saying top defensive Dman or anything. For instance, McDonaugh doesn't seem to think the game as well as Alzner but can be considered a better DFD since his skating and endurance is greater (though Alzner is elite in both, McDonaugh is a freak of nature). Keith too, his skating just bails him out completely any time he's behind. I can't think of many that process the game defensively better than Alzner. Lidstrom retired. Suter, probably. Doughty too when he choose to concentrate on defense, but he also constantly goes for risky offensive plays and sometimes loses it for long periods of time. Staal, maybe but I doubt it. He pretty much always reads the play correctly and does the right thing to diffuse it. Completely automatic on 2 on 1s, against forecheck and dump and chases, at diffusing screening situations by the net. The ideal partner for a free wheeling 1D. Imagine if you had a guy who thought the game at an elite level and had elite skating and other tools, but was completely committed to playing 100% defense and never tempted to go out of position to make an offensive play or monster check.

Alzner right now is good enough to anchor the top pairing on a cup winning team defensively. You don't move those players for 2C, even ones as good as O'Reilly.


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Old
01-18-2013, 01:35 AM
  #10
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I like Karl but that is a terrible deal for Colorado. Alzner is an upgrade over Hejda for sure but not at the cost of O'Reilly let alone him and a potential lottery pick. Ward is negative value as mentioned.

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Old
01-18-2013, 01:37 AM
  #11
dahrougem2
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Carlson is a much more common quantity. Hell, we have 3 of him - Green, Carlson, Orlov. You've got at least 3 of those types with Johnson, Elliot and Barrie and only Siemens in the Alzner mold, and he doesn't really have the same IQ either.

Also don't confuse defensive IQ with saying top defensive Dman or anything. For instance, McDonaugh doesn't seem to think the game as well as Alzner but can be considered a better DFD since his skating and endurance is greater (though Alzner is elite in both, McDonaugh is a freak of nature). Keith too, his skating just bails him out completely any time he's behind. I can't think of many that process the game defensively better than Alzner. Lidstrom retired. Suter, probably. Doughty too when he choose to concentrate on defense, but he also constantly goes for risky offensive plays and sometimes loses it for long periods of time. Staal, maybe but I doubt it. He pretty much always reads the play correctly and does the right thing to diffuse it. Completely automatic on 2 on 1s, against forecheck and dump and chases, at diffusing screening situations by the net. The ideal partner for a free wheeling 1D. Imagine if you had a guy who thought the game at an elite level and had elite skating and other tools, but was completely committed to playing 100% defense and never tempted to go out of position to make an offensive play or monster check.

Alzner right now is good enough to anchor the top pairing on a cup winning team defensively. You don't move those players for 2C, even ones as good as O'Reilly.
Lol ok now this is pushing it, I understand you're a Capitals fan but there are a ton of defenseman out there that I would take before Karl Alzner, and he is not good enough alone to anchor a pairing, which is what makes his pairing with Carlson so valuable, they feed off of one another, but I prefer Carlson. I feel as though Alzner is the type of d-man who, if placed with a player who's not similar to Carlson, would struggle, and likewise for Carlson, but I don't think Alzner can anchor the top pairing on a cup winning team

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Old
01-18-2013, 01:40 AM
  #12
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i don't like it, were giving up our second best dman, for someone who would become our second best dman, yet an upgrade at that, all this at the expense of o'reilly and a 1st. no thanks.

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01-18-2013, 01:49 AM
  #13
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Originally Posted by dahrougem2 View Post
Lol ok now this is pushing it, I understand you're a Capitals fan but there are a ton of defenseman out there that I would take before Karl Alzner, and he is not good enough alone to anchor a pairing, which is what makes his pairing with Carlson so valuable, they feed off of one another, but I prefer Carlson. I feel as though Alzner is the type of d-man who, if placed with a player who's not similar to Carlson, would struggle, and likewise for Carlson, but I don't think Alzner can anchor the top pairing on a cup winning team
I said defensively anchor. As in, you'd still need a high end offensive D to go with him. What I meant is basically that if Alzner-Johnson is your top pairing, you don't seek to upgrade either of those players when going for a cup. Much like Alzner-Carlson, which was our #1 point of strength in last year's playoffs, who had a grand total of maybe 2 moments in 14 games when they really messed up. Carlson may seem more valuable to outsiders since he also hits and puts up points and in a vacuum he may be, but if I had to choose between either Carlson, Green and Orlov and Alzner, Green and Orlov I'd choose the latter. I'm a believer in at least one defenseman on a roster who thinks the game through at an elite level defensively.

I can understand you thinking you're getting ripped off and I don't underrate O'Reilly (think he'll be on Bergeron's level), but for us it's really not close, especially after we saw his playoff shutdown abilities over the last 2 years. And we have a bigger ***** for O'Reilly on our board than most.

You guys can have Schultz for Hunwick and try him with Johnson. Who knows, maybe he finally gets it.


Last edited by Halpysback*: 01-18-2013 at 01:54 AM.
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Old
01-18-2013, 02:30 AM
  #14
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No freaking way, Radar and Alzner are a wash, I'd rather have Hejda than Ward and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that a 1st round pick is more valuable than a 2nd round pick.

As for Alzner easily being top 5 in terms of defensive play, I have to disagree, here's 5 better players of the top of my head: Scuderi, Mitchell, Vlasic, Hamhuis, Gorges.

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01-18-2013, 02:41 AM
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Its always fun to see fans get on young Ds like Bogo and Alzner then a season or two later go on how they are top pairing Ds with elite this or elite that. Such a drastic change in so little time.

I think the Avs will just be patient and wait for Duncan to be ready next season or so. If not, in about 6 months there will be some nice options for much cheaper than what is being asked for Alzner here.

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01-18-2013, 02:46 AM
  #16
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No freaking way, Radar and Alzner are a wash, I'd rather have Hejda than Ward and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that a 1st round pick is more valuable than a 2nd round pick.

As for Alzner easily being top 5 in terms of defensive play, I have to disagree, here's 5 better players of the top of my head: Scuderi, Mitchell, Vlasic, Hamhuis, Gorges.
I was talking about solely defensive hockey IQ. In terms of defensive hockey IQ I'd say he's comfortably above Gorges, Mitchell and Scuderi. Other two, I guess you could argue (especially Vlasic) he's also the best skater of the group. He's also 24, and defensive defenseman is the one profession where you benefit most from veteran experience in all of hockey. It can also make hockey IQ appear much better than it really is. Beauchemin for instance doesn't have a high hockey IQ yet is a very successful all around defensive defenseman. Gorges is flashier since he blocks tons of shots and hustles all over the place but Alzner generally doesn't let things even get to that point. Scuderi was playing with a much better partner this year and on a team that was completely on the same page and rolling like a machine. Not to take away from his or Mitchell's contribution to the Kings' cup but they were in a better position than caps' defensemen.

One thing that makes Alzner seem meh to a lot of people is that he doesn't make lots of flashy defensive plays. No big hits like Mitchell, epic blocks like Gorges or stick along the ice interceptions like Scuderi. But that's because things don't get to a point where he needs to make flashy defensive plays. He just closes things out clinically, recognizes the simplest way to diffuse a situation early and makes it with complete reliability. Take Lidstrom, set his offensive game to near zero, and you have roughly what Alzner's defensive game looks like or at least will once he's fully developed. The times when he does get hung out to dry on a 2 on 1 or needs to block shots or do things like that he does the same things Scuderi, Gorges and Vlasic do without being any worse.


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01-18-2013, 02:48 AM
  #17
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Its always fun to see fans get on young Ds like Bogo and Alzner then a season or two later go on how they are top pairing Ds with elite this or elite that. Such a drastic change in so little time.

I think the Avs will just be patient and wait for Duncan to be ready next season or so. If not, in about 6 months there will be some nice options for much cheaper than what is being asked for Alzner here.
I remember people getting on Bogo, Green, Johnson (both), Carlson (this season), even Doughty when he was slumping in his 2nd year. No one has ever gotten on Alzner as far as I can recall. Him and Pietrangelo are two young D that no one in the history of hf ever crapped on.

Part of it is his expectations aren't as high as a DFD, but part of it is also total consistency of delivering to those expectations.


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01-18-2013, 02:53 AM
  #18
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Lol ok now this is pushing it, I understand you're a Capitals fan but there are a ton of defenseman out there that I would take before Karl Alzner, and he is not good enough alone to anchor a pairing, which is what makes his pairing with Carlson so valuable, they feed off of one another, but I prefer Carlson. I feel as though Alzner is the type of d-man who, if placed with a player who's not similar to Carlson, would struggle, and likewise for Carlson, but I don't think Alzner can anchor the top pairing on a cup winning team
Except that he spent this year playing alongside a struggling Carlson and he was still elite (to give you an idea of how poorly Carlson played during the regular season, despite playing over 65% of their minutes together, Alzner was a team leading +12 while Carlson was a team trailing -15). The only defensemen last year who faced a higher Corsi Rel QoC and a lower GA/60 were Nick Lidstrom and Ryan McDonagh. When Carlson was actually showing up in the playoffs, they steamrolled the Bruins' top lines and nearly did the same to the Rangers (unfortunately, Dale Hunter insisted on giving their antithesis, Schultz-Wideman, 15-20 minutes a night and they almost single handedly destroyed us). Anyway, Alzner's a very unique talent. He's not going anywhere without a decisive overpay, and this deal isn't it.

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01-18-2013, 02:56 AM
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Except that he spent this year playing alongside a struggling Carlson and he was still elite (to give you an idea of how poorly Carlson played during the regular season, despite playing over 65% of their minutes together, Alzner was a team leading +12 while Carlson was a team trailing -15). The only defensemen last year who faced a higher Corsi Rel QoC and a lower GA/60 were Nick Lidstrom and Ryan McDonagh. When Carlson was actually showing up in the playoffs, they steamrolled the Bruins' top lines and nearly did the same to the Rangers (unfortunately, Dale Hunter insisted on giving their antithesis, Schultz-Wideman, 15-20 minutes a night and they almost single handedly destroyed us). Anyway, Alzner's a very unique talent. He's not going anywhere without a decisive overpay, and this deal isn't it.
This.

He tacks on 35 points a year to his skillset, GMs line up to give him Suter money. Since he won't, we can probably sign him for around what Carlson got.

6+ years of already one of the better top pairings in the league that's still 4 years away from its prime. Hehe.

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01-18-2013, 03:13 AM
  #20
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What about O'Reilly for Orlov, Perreault, 1st, 2nd.

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01-18-2013, 04:42 AM
  #21
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Maybe switch the picks to colorado 2nd and washington 3rd.

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01-18-2013, 04:42 AM
  #22
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What about O'Reilly for Orlov, Perreault, 1st, 2nd.
This one unfortunately does not meet any of our needs.
Orlov of course is a very talented player but we have too many similar prospects, Barrie probably even starting the season with the Avs.

Alzner on the other hand would be exactly the guy I'd love to get for O'Reilly if we cannot sign him.
I would even be ready to use our 1st round pick but I don't want to trade Hejda and I don't want anything of Joel Ward around the avalanche.

What else could be worked out as O'Reilly + 1st would be too much for Alzner only.

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01-18-2013, 05:16 AM
  #23
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What about O'Reilly for Orlov, Perreault, 1st, 2nd.
That would hurt as Caps fan but would do it.

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01-18-2013, 05:18 AM
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What else could be worked out as O'Reilly + 1st would be too much for Alzner only.
What do you want? Plugs, prospects, picks, roster players, forward, defenseman?

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01-18-2013, 06:26 AM
  #25
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I like ROR,But I wouldnt move a top pair shutdown left dfd for a third line center. I dont care how good that 3c is.

Halpy is right. Alzner is a rare player and hes yet to reach his potential. Not saying ROR wont develope into more,but with the caps having to play in the east...Alzner will be the more valuable player. If the caps cant stop the rangers,flyers and pens,it wont matter how many 2nd/3rd line centers they have.

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