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Rayan O'Rayli , From Russia with love

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01-23-2013, 12:45 PM
  #426
hoserthehorrible
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Originally Posted by Mant View Post
However, in this discussion, the suggestion was made that we need O'Reilly for his defensive zone faceoffs after icing... but we've got guys winning those defensive zone faceoffs just fine without him.
The only way O'Reilly would be taking defensive zone faceoffs after an icing is if he was on the ice when the icing occurred. The Avs aren't allowed to put O'Reilly on the ice to take a faceoff after an icing.

I'm pretty sure this argument is not at the core of whether the Avs need O'Reilly or not.

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01-23-2013, 12:51 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Another aspect of this situation is that you have 29 other GMs that want Avs to stand firm here. They don't want this Russia ploy to pay off and have their players threaten to do the same thing in the future.

I'd be very surprised if O'Reilly's agent has any success fishing for offer sheets, if he is doing that. Any team doing that will have to pay a heavy price doing that just after missing half a season to get a new CBA in place.
This.

If the remaining 3 main RFAs didn't all have the same agency, I wouldn't read too much into this but they represent something like 120 NHLers. That's roughly 15% of all players in the league and this appears to be more about the 'war against 2-year bridge contracts' coming out of Entry Level than it is about the actual players themselves.

You're absolutely right, the rest of the teams want the Avs to stand their ground even if it's at their own expense.

Kind of ironic that, apparently, we keep being a team that gets screwed coming out of a lockout, no matter what we do.

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01-23-2013, 12:55 PM
  #428
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Stats would strongly disagree with you..

Oreilly played under 16 Mins last night for MG, and only played 2 shifts in the 3rd period.

That doesn't sound like someone being treated like a "God".

As for the Sgarbossa comment, like I said if he comes in and starts producing right out of the gate, it certainly wont be the Avs getting desperate. Even if he doesn't produce its still not a sign that were desperate, its simply an injury call up.

Oreilly is losing leverage fast right now, Mitchell is playing very well on the 3rd line and the Avs have looked pretty good the 1st two games without him.

How long before managments mind switches from "This team would looks so much better with 3 scoring lines, and all that offensive depth" to a mindset that "With another Top pairing Dman on this team, our Defense gets much better, and the offense will benefit too". At this rate I would guess not very long.
I think people place way too much emphasis on these individual games and their relation to O'Reilly's leverage. Sure, Mitchell has looked like a serviceable 3rd line center, but he's still not anywhere near as good as O'Reilly. What if his play drops off a bit? Mitchell is supposed to be a McClement replacement. Playing him too much will give us the same problem we have on defense. Good players slotted above their abilities.

Moreover, should we count on Duchene to bring that kind of performance every night? Or do we want to have an extra weapon for when he doesn't show up/ is game planned? If anything, last night should show you how close we are to being a one line team. A couple inches the other way, and Duchene would be out for a couple of weeks with a broken jaw.

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01-23-2013, 01:11 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by TwoPadStack View Post
If we are calling up little Sgarbossa without a year of professional hockey under his belt to replace Downie, or O'Ry himself... I can assure you that he is not the one getting desperate.

It's funny to read some of these opinions, as if O'Ry is sitting there begging and pleading to come back. He's getting paid very well, is treated like a God, and believe it or not, his coaches see him as the exact type of player they want younger Russian players to become; two-way threats, going through the wall, constant improvement and work ethic.

He's not sad, he's not depressed. Missing his teammates and playing in the NHL? Sure, but he's not sitting at home looking through the daily job listings in the newspaper.
I know you're his friend but I feel like you're getting the wrong idea about peoples' views here - I don't think a significant number of people are under the impression that O'reilly isn't happy where he is for the time being or isn't being paid or is desperate to come back. For the most part we've been discussing whether or not this move really does increase his leverage in contract negotiations, and I think the clear answer to that is simply "perhaps". There are a number of factors to take into account, but there are absolutely situations in which his leverage decreases (e.g. if the Avs are willing to let him finish his contract in the KHL/leave him in russia long term, if the team succeeds in his absence, etc). Obviously there are just as many circumstances which could lead to his leverage increasing (poor performance, injury to Stastny or Duchene, any other motivation to bring him back overseas sooner than later)


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Originally Posted by Crisp Breakout View Post
I think people place way too much emphasis on these individual games and their relation to O'Reilly's leverage. Sure, Mitchell has looked like a serviceable 3rd line center, but he's still not anywhere near as good as O'Reilly. What if his play drops off a bit? Mitchell is supposed to be a McClement replacement. Playing him too much will give us the same problem we have on defense. Good players slotted above their abilities.

Moreover, should we count on Duchene to bring that kind of performance every night? Or do we want to have an extra weapon for when he doesn't show up/ is game planned? If anything, last night should show you how close we are to being a one line team. A couple inches the other way, and Duchene would be out for a couple of weeks with a broken jaw.
Great post. Mitchell most certainly is a massive downgrade relative to O'reilly at 3C, no matter how well he plays in individual games. It's only realistic to expect that this guy is going to go to play more similarly to the way he has his whole career if given a sample of the whole season - he's just playing hot right now. He will still be a good 4C for us but he shouldn't be a 3C.

If either Stastny or Duchene go down, we're stuck with Mitchell as 2C. Remember Tyler Arnason in 08-09? We either need O'reilly back, or need to acquire some insurance depth at center. As it is we don't have 4 real centers since Olver really shouldn't be played at that position.

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01-23-2013, 01:21 PM
  #430
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Originally Posted by Avsare1 View Post
Things could get real interesting again if Sgarbossa is called up from the AHL to replace Downie, and starts producing offense right away as the 3C. Would make you think Oreilly would start to become worried/desperate and sign a smaller deal to get back here before its too late.

Assuming that is that he still wants to play for Colorado, and isn't holding out for a trade like Turris did.
I have high hopes in Sgarbossa, if he turns out into a true star things are looking good for the Avs.

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01-23-2013, 01:24 PM
  #431
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Another aspect of this situation is that you have 29 other GMs that want Avs to stand firm here. They don't want this Russia ploy to pay off and have their players threaten to do the same thing in the future.

I'd be very surprised if O'Reilly's agent has any success fishing for offer sheets, if he is doing that. Any team doing that will have to pay a heavy price doing that just after missing half a season to get a new CBA in place.
I'm pretty sure there will be a couple of teams willing to pay O'Reilly $4 million / year and they won't give a **** if it's more than Duchene. ;-)

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01-23-2013, 01:39 PM
  #432
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I'm pretty sure there will be a couple of teams willing to pay O'Reilly $4 million / year and they won't give a **** if it's more than Duchene. ;-)
Why are you talking about $4M/year? There is no indication that O'Reilly would accept playing for that amount. I think if he did, there is a decent chance he would be in the NHL right now.

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01-23-2013, 01:39 PM
  #433
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I have high hopes in Sgarbossa, if he turns out into a true star things are looking good for the Avs.
I'm a big fan of Sgarbossa, and have been for a long while now (before the Sharks signed him). He won't ever be a star player. If he maxes out his potential he is a good #2C with some sandpaper to his game. Though where I really see him ending up as a top 6 RW in the mold of a more skilled and much less psychotic version of Downie.

Back on track, for the Avs to be a real threat for the playoffs they have to fill some holes in the lineup still. A top pairing defender and a #3C are two glaring holes right now (another top4 defender and an elite sniping winger could make this team a contender IMO). Signing ROR fills one of those spots, so he is still very valuable to this team. That is where his leverage is. The team's leverage is that they could trade him plus some parts to fill a couple of those needs, or that they can afford to wait as this team isn't close enough to being a contender yet that ROR is needed at the moment.

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01-23-2013, 01:44 PM
  #434
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I bet I'm in the minority but I'm done. The season has started and unless this is resolved shortly I say just let his ass suffer all winter in Russia and then come trade deadline sell him for the highest offer.

I'm done Ryan, Avs fans loved you and this is how you repay us? Over simplified maybe but I don't care. Highest bidder can deal with signing his ass

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01-23-2013, 01:51 PM
  #435
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I bet I'm in the minority but I'm done. The season has started and unless this is resolved shortly I say just let his ass suffer all winter in Russia and then come trade deadline sell him for the highest offer.

I'm done Ryan, Avs fans loved you and this is how you repay us? Over simplified maybe but I don't care. Highest bidder can deal with signing his ass
This is pretty much it. He's not a generational talent, he's not irreplaceable by any means. Screw it. My once favourite player can now go to hell.

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01-23-2013, 02:10 PM
  #436
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Originally Posted by AMDZen View Post
I bet I'm in the minority but I'm done. The season has started and unless this is resolved shortly I say just let his ass suffer all winter in Russia and then come trade deadline sell him for the highest offer.

I'm done Ryan, Avs fans loved you and this is how you repay us? Over simplified maybe but I don't care. Highest bidder can deal with signing his ass
yup. get him the **** out of here for a D/Best offer.

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01-23-2013, 02:13 PM
  #437
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Originally Posted by Hennessy View Post
That's not leverage, that's career suicide.
I just wish we had some more information from O'Reilly or his agent. To me, it seems so obvious that he has nothing to gain from staying in Russia that I feel like I must be missing something. He can make the same money here or there (and that's assuming he is making $4 million in Russia), but (a) not fall completely off the NHL radar, and (b) become a UFA one year faster. I can't imagine that a few extra hundred thousand dollars saved in lower taxes, is worth postponing UFA status by a year, abandoning your teammates, and hurting your reputation. Next summer, he will at best be in the same situation as he is right now: 4 years away from UFA status, but much more likely, his stock will have dropped, not only with the Avs, but with other teams as well.

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01-23-2013, 02:17 PM
  #438
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I just wish we had some more information from O'Reilly or his agent. To me, it seems so obvious that he has nothing to gain from staying in Russia that I feel like I must be missing something. He can make the same money here or there (and that's assuming he is making $4 million in Russia), but (a) not fall completely off the NHL radar, and (b) become a UFA one year faster. I can't imagine that a few extra hundred thousand dollars saved in lower taxes, is worth postponing UFA status by a year, abandoning your teammates, and hurting your reputation. Next summer, he will at best be in the same situation as he is right now: 4 years away from UFA status, but much more likely, his stock will have dropped, not only with the Avs, but with other teams as well.
ROR and Mark Guy must think that the Avs will cave eventually and pay him the salary he wants before the end of the season.

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01-23-2013, 02:24 PM
  #439
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
ROR and Mark Guy must think that the Avs will cave eventually and pay him the salary he wants before the end of the season.
Surely they must know they are dealing with Avs not Leafs? The last Avs players that rejected contracts, Anderson and Winnik got sent packing it's only a matter of time until the same happens to ROR whether he likes it or not.

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01-23-2013, 02:25 PM
  #440
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Why are you talking about $4M/year? There is no indication that O'Reilly would accept playing for that amount. I think if he did, there is a decent chance he would be in the NHL right now.
I don't believe he is asking for $5 anyway, O'Reilly and his agent can't be that stupid.

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01-23-2013, 02:28 PM
  #441
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Surely they must know they are dealing with Avs not Leafs? The last Avs players that rejected contracts, Anderson and Winnik got sent packing it's only a matter of time until the same happens to ROR whether he likes it or not.
That might be their end game. ROR isn't going to get first line (or maybe even second line) minutes unless both Duchene and Stastny falter or get injured. Because of that ROR might not be able to show his true value until one of them are gone. So either force a trade or force the team to commit to you long term.

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01-23-2013, 02:28 PM
  #442
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I asked this the other day, but don't think I ever saw an answer...

What role is he playing in Russia?

Is he a 1st or 2nd line Center?

I think that's all he really wants -- to be able to play in a position where he can realize his full potential. I can understand why he wouldn't want to be stuck in a 3rd line Center role, when he has proven (albeit only for 1 season) that he can be more than that.

I don't want to see him go, and would prefer to have him on the Avs long-term. But I really don't think he'd be happy here unless we traded Dutch or Staz (I don't want to trade either of them.)

So, if what I suspect is true, ROR would probably be happier elsewhere. I just wish he and management could have arrived at that conclusion in a friendlier and healthier manner.

I don't really like him trying to force their hand, and the particular way he went about it definitely leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

I just wish he and the team could sit down and rationally talk it through, determine what is best for each entity, and then work out a reasonable way for each side to attain what they need.

If he wants to play elsewhere in a greater role, then make a deal with the Avs so he can be traded for a decent player. If he is hell-bent on making bank, then I think that he will, unfortunately, be in the KHL for a while, which doesn't really help his career or the Avs.

Just talk it out, determine what is right for everybody, and move forward. dammit.

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01-23-2013, 02:29 PM
  #443
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you guys are such fair weather fans sometimes.

If ROR signed tomorrow, he'd be back in the top 3 of the "Your Favorite Avs Player" polls. Don't kid yourselves.

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01-23-2013, 02:29 PM
  #444
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Originally Posted by 21 View Post
I don't believe he is asking for $5 anyway, O'Reilly and his agent can't be that stupid.
Mark Guy all but said that the last time he spoke. He said he wasn't asking $5m on a short term deal, but only a deal that eats up some UFA time.

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01-23-2013, 02:30 PM
  #445
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
you guys are such fair weather fans sometimes.

If ROR signed tomorrow, he'd be back in the top 3 of the "Your Favorite Avs Player" polls. Don't kid yourselves.
He wasn't in my top 3 to begin with.... top 10 though easily.

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01-23-2013, 02:32 PM
  #446
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ROR and Mark Guy must think that the Avs will cave eventually and pay him the salary he wants before the end of the season.
That or he's trying to get traded. Could this also be a weird way to get to arbitration early? Not sure why O'Reilly would want that, as I expect he'd not get the numbers he wants.

Quote:
A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing ten (10) or
more NHL Games in a given season. A Player aged 20 or older (or who turns 20
between September 16 and December 31 of the calendar year in which he signs his first
SPC) earns a year of professional experience by playing ten (10) or more Professional
Games under an SPC in a given season
Quote:
"Professional Games" includes the following: any NHL Games played,
all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games
played, including but not limited to, games played in any European league or any other
league outside North America, by a Player pursuant to his SPC.
KHL games count as "Professional Games." Certainly that may be the Avs' play if this lasts the whole 2013 season, they can take him to arbitration, and I bet they would "win."

(Both quotes from the 2005 CBA)

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01-23-2013, 02:33 PM
  #447
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That or he's trying to get traded. Could this also be a weird way to get to arbitration early? Not sure why O'Reilly would want that, as I expect he'd not get the numbers he wants.

KHL games count as "Professional Games." Certainly that may be the Avs' play if this lasts the whole 2013 season, they can take him to arbitration, and I bet they would "win."

(Both quotes from the 2005 CBA)
O'Reilly isn't under a SPC.

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01-23-2013, 02:35 PM
  #448
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O'Reilly isn't under a SPC.
I'm unclear if he needs to be from that passage. it just says "pursuant," whatever that means legally.

edit: http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Pursuant "To do an act pursuant to the law is to conform to the requirements of a statute"

so...uh...I think that just means that he can't violate a SPC? In which case he will accrue a year for this KHL jaunt? i am clearly not a lawyer.


Last edited by thedoctor: 01-23-2013 at 02:45 PM.
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01-23-2013, 02:45 PM
  #449
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i'm curious, what would be needed to get him in oiler colours? our team could really use a bigger center to replace gagner so obviously he could be going the other way what else? i know your team wants D and that's not really our strong points but we do have some D prospects in klefbom, musil, gernat, marincin, simpson, etc...

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01-23-2013, 02:47 PM
  #450
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Originally Posted by paberallFTW View Post
i'm curious, what would be needed to get him in oiler colours? our team could really use a bigger center to replace gagner so obviously he could be going the other way what else? i know your team wants D and that's not really our strong points but we do have some D prospects in klefbom, musil, gernat, marincin, simpson, etc...
We don't want to send him to you. We want to send him out East preferably. For a #2 D. Or in a package for a #2 D and a replacement #3 C.

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