While it's possible, especially in a shortened season, the Canucks have just been too far in front of anyone else in the division to think it's likely they fall. The Kesler injury hurts, but I don't think they team will fall too far before he gets back, assuming he doesn't have any more setbacks.
The Wild look pretty good on paper, but I think some are too quick to mention their start last year, especially Wild fans. While I don't think advanced stats are the be-all-end-all, the possession numbers were terrible for them last season even during the start and suggested they would fall off even before the injuries. That said, the Parise and Granlund additions give them a solid top two lines, and allow Brodziak and Clutterbuck to fall down to be great third line players. Suter should help solidify the defense who are young and getting better. I think some were overrating them going into the season, but if anyone other than Van is going to win, I'd put money on them. The Oilers have their stars, but I think they're just too raw. I'd probably still take a Koivu, Parise and Heatley combo over Nuge, Hall and Ebs, because of experience and a proven ability to play the tough minutes, and don't have the depth of Minny either.
I think it's still Vancouver but wouldn't be suprised to see Wild going with it. EDM has some issues imo, Colorado needs to figure out ROR situation soon and I don't see Calgary being that competitive
As a Wild fan, it pains me to say this. But I voted Vancouver. Minnesota isn't quite there yet, but they're moving in the right direction. The NW is going through a change, and the Canucks are going to have a lot more competition in the next couple of years. Although the Wild may be moved due to realignment, the Avs and Oilers will create some havoc. Vancouver's days of coasting to a division title are numbered.
The way I see it, defence/goaltending is pretty close but slight advantage Vancouver.
However, I am simply not sold on Minnesota's offence.
In 2010-11, they had no significant injuries, and finished as the 5th lowest scoring team in the league.
In that offseason they dropped Havlat and gained Heatley.
In 2011-12, Minnesota finished dead last, 30th in the league, in goals for, and in fact, were the lowest-scoring team in the entire period between the lockouts 2005-2012. So what, you say? Koivu, Bouchard, and Setoguchi all were out for quite a while.
Except, the Wild were not only 30th but well behind, not even close to anyone else. They could have scored 20 more goals last year and still been the lowest scoring team in the league.
Meanwhile, Vancouver has been 2nd, 1st, and 5th in scoring during the last three seasons. The Canucks are now missing two-thirds of their 2nd line, so they'll slip a bit, but I don't think they're going to end up anywhere near the bottom of the standings. After all, Henrik Sedin was the highest-scoring forward in the West last year, and the Canucks also get a large chunk of their scoring from the blueline.
Now Wild add Granlund, Parise, Suter, and the Canucks are down Kesler and Booth.
IMO everything needs to go right for the Wild - their new acquisitions play to potential and they stay healthy, while Kesler and Booth are out for most of the season, and maybe even a H. Sedin injury (unlikely due to his history) - for them to pass the Canucks in goals per game. There is simply too much of a difference to make up.
Note: You might be wondering about Boston, which finished last in scoring in 2009-10 and then won the division plus the Cup the following year. First of all, the Bruins actually got 2.39 G/G that year, with Savard injured, which is still a lot better than the Wild did last year. Like the Wild, they made major changes in the offseason adding Horton, Campbell, Marchand, and Seguin. But those Bruins didn't have a two-time Presidents Trophy winner and perennial top offensive team in their division to contend with - their division was won by the Buffalo Sabres (10th in goals per game), so the "bar" they needed to beat was lower. They also got historic goaltending from Tim Thomas, which I'm not holding my breath for Backstrom or Harding to accomplish this year.
TL, DR: Canucks offence >>>> Wild offence last year. Changes in the offseason and injuries haven't done enough to make Wild offence better than Canucks, unless the stars align for Minnesota. Therefore Vancouver still favoured to win the NW.
I am not disagreeing about past seasons but last year the wild lost their best player in Koivu and another one of their top players in Bouchard of course they sucked. This year they added Granlund, Parise, and having all players healthy I think they now have the edge in forwards. Also the Canucks have a great offense but the last few years they have been able to beat up on teams like Minny and Col who both made addition that should reduce the amount Van is able to dominate. Its that I think the Canucks suck they are far better then my Flames but I think the atmosphere in Minny is going to bring this team to the next level is all.
As a Wild fan, it pains me to say this. But I voted Vancouver. Minnesota isn't quite there yet, but they're moving in the right direction. The NW is going through a change, and the Canucks are going to have a lot more competition in the next couple of years. Although the Wild may be moved due to realignment, the Avs and Oilers will create some havoc. Vancouver's days of coasting to a division title are numbered.
One of the issues with the Wild's scoring is that Mike Yeo likes to use the top line to shut down the other team's top line. That hurts their scoring but helps them win games. Minnesota will probably be a low scoring team again this year, people who don't watch them play and just look at statistics will wonder why they are wining.
Devin Setoguchi - Kyle Brodziak - Dany Heatley
Darroll Powe - Matt Cullen - Nick Johnson
Chad Rau - Erik Christensen - Cal Clutterbuck
Jed Ortmeyer - Warren Peters - Matt Kassian
Nick Schultz - Nate Prosser
Greg Zanon - Marek Zidlicky
Marco Scandella - Jared Spurgeon
Nik Backstrom in goal
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With the lack of depth we had last year after injuries, every line was basically a shut-down line. We had no offense to speak of, and our defense - believe it or not - was even worse.
As a Canucks fan, I don't really care about Division titles anymore to be honest. Worthless achievement considering how crappy the rest of the teams in the NW are. That said, I highly doubt the Canucks don't win again this year even if they have a huge amount of injuries.
I still think the Canucks have it, but obviously not by the margin they had last year. Minnesota will come close and it wouldn't shock me if they did win, but it's just not was I think will happen.
1 - You're only talking about Minnesotas second half of the season. The first half they were one of the best teams. You can't just isolate the parts that support your argument. The biggest sample size we have from last year is 82 games, and over 82 games Minnesota got 81 points and finished 12th.
Minnesota's record through 28 games was a house of cards and their demise was completely predicted. They were getting badly outshot on a regular basis, and they were getting better goaltending at even strength than Tim Thomas had in his record year. Minnesota was 12th in the standings but they were the worst team in the league. Vancouver won the President's trophy; do you think they were the best team? No.. because they weren't. A team's record is not the 100% accurate measure of how good a team was.
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2 - Penguins added Lemieux. That's your argument? Lemieux put up 22 points that year... Adding Crosby to a dead last team isn't the same as adding Suter/Parise/Granlund to a 12th place team
The Penguins added Crosby, Gonchar (at the time, had 7 straight 50 point seasons), Leclair, and Palffy.
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3 - Vancouver was 18-5-1 against the NW last season...the division they had their best record in, which also happens to be the division they had the most games in. Yes, they were (and are) a good team, but the Presidents trophy was essentially the byproduct of eating up a terrible division. NYR for example had to play against Pittsburgh, NJ, and Philly in their division, all playoff teams. Put NYR in the SE division last year, and how many points do they get?
The Canucks were, by my guess, somewhere between 5th and 7th in the league last year. I'm not crowning them the best team in the league though they were 1st.
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And like I said. I think Vancouver should win the division, I just wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota take it.
I'd be very surprised if Minnesota makes the playoffs. So much so that I bet against it..
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Exhibit A as to how hockey doesn't matter on ESPN:
Last night an ESPN program was discussing how the Detroit Pistons needed a hero citing the heroes on the Detroit Tigers, Detroit Lions and no mention of the Detroit Red Wings. All this despite the Red Wings probably being the most succesful team in Detroit right now.
Canucks fans we haven't won anything yet, so please don't come in here and gloat. Its a quarter way into the season, and like you I would be shocked if we lose our lead in the division at any point this season. But if that point does come we will look awfully stupid if 12 games into the season we tell everyone how stupid they were for betting against us.
