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Bryan Murray: Probably Not Going To Draft A Russian

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01-22-2013, 07:21 PM
  #1
BonkTastic
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Bryan Murray: Probably Not Going To Draft A Russian

Hey guys, I made this post in another thread, but thought if it might generate some discussion, it could warrant it's own thread? At least at the next draft, when someone asks why we didn't take "that particular Russian" player, someone can necro-bump this thread as a starter FAQ of Bryan Murray's draft trends concerning Russian players.



Hypothesis:
Bryan Murray does not draft Russian players. Like, at all. Almost ever.



Proof:
Bryan Murray has been an NHL GM of three teams over the past 19 years. Their drafting records, under Murray, are as follows-

Murray with Ottawa
2007 - Ruslan Bashkirov (2nd round) - Was still using Muckler's scouts, he had only been GM for 4 days when the draft happened.
Result in Ottawa, 2007-present: 6 years of drafting, 41 players selected, ONE Russian (that he probably wouldn't have even taken if "his guys" had been around.)

Murray with Anaheim, 2002-2004
no Russians drafted
Result with Anaheim: 3 years of drafting, 25 players selected, zero Russians.

In fact, you need to go back to Murray's Florida days (1994-2000) before you have evidence of even a single Russian guy Murray wanted himself... and looking at Florida's track there over 7 drafts, you can even see back then evidence of Murray eschewing Russian picks, even during the 90's mentality of "let's draft Russians because the Iron Curtain is down and every pick is the next Fedorov!!!1":

Murray with Florida, 1995-2000
- Vladimir Sapozhnikov, 2nd round (2000)
- Ivan Novoseltsev, 4th round (1997)
- Oleg Kvasha, 3rd round (1996)
Result in Florida, 1995-2000: 7 years of drafting, 64 players selected, 3 Russians.



So, what's our final tally for Bryan Murray as a GM Since 1995
?
- 15 years as an NHL GM
- 130 players selected
- 4 Russians (or, ~3% of Murray's total picks)
- Of those 4 Russians, NONE were 1st rounders.



Conclusions/ What we have learned: We have, as we can best extrapolate from existing data (and assuming Murray has established enough of a sample size to assume that his drafting trends will continue), a ~3% chance of drafting a Russian player in Ottawa while Murray is here. Even less of a chance of taking a Russian in the first round.


*NOTE*
This post ignores Murray's draft record with Detroit, which includes the following Russians:
- Vyacheslav Kozlov (3rd round, 1990)
- Dmitri Motkov (5th round, 1991)
- Igor Malykhin (7th round, 1991)
- Yuri Yeresko (7th round, 1993)
- Yan Golubovsky (1st round, 1994)
- Pavel Agarkov (6th round, 1994)

Why Murray has drafted a higher number of Russians in Detroit is a good question to ask. Was he more apt to be influenced by the Red Wings scouts because of their past successes in Russia? Did the team force Murray to draft more Rusians to appease the at-the-time UNHEARD of wealth of Russian talent? Did he just simply back off of drafting Russians slowly, over time? Tough to say, and even harder to prove any of those theories.


Last edited by BonkTastic: 01-22-2013 at 07:44 PM.
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01-22-2013, 07:24 PM
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ReginKarlssonLehner
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Most likely not, unless the Russian shows great skill and work ethic as well as strong commitment to NA game.

We were very high on Burmistrov.

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01-22-2013, 07:24 PM
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Not a bad way to go considering the growth of the KHL.

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01-22-2013, 07:26 PM
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RedWhiteBlackGold
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Your forgetting his 4 year span with Detroit, although I'm not certain in regards to the Russian's he selected if any. I found this thread posted 2 years ago with all of Murray's draft selections up until 2010.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=875812

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01-22-2013, 07:29 PM
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BonkTastic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedWhiteBlackGold View Post
Your forgetting his 4 year span with Detroit. Found this thread posted 2 years ago with all of Murray's draft selections up until 2010.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=875812
Ah, though you are correct, that was intentional... but I forgot to say so in my original post. I will make that edit.

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01-22-2013, 07:30 PM
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Tim and Bryans record of drafting and developing players speaks for itself.

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01-22-2013, 07:35 PM
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enviro61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pt_mck View Post
Tim and Bryans record of drafting and developing players speaks for itself.
I don't think that is the point he is making. I agree with the OP, some GM's cut off their nose to spite their face. Burke was like with Toronto in that he had the code of Burke about signing players, Offer sheets etc.

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01-22-2013, 07:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enviro61 View Post
I don't think that is the point he is making. I agree with the OP, some GM's cut off their nose to spite their face. Burke was like with Toronto in that he had the code of Burke about signing players, Offer sheets etc.
Yeah, I'm not saying that Murray's draft history with Russians is a good thing, or a bad thing. I'm just saying: "it's a thing". It's an observable trend, and there is lots of data to back it up.

People can make their own conclusions. I'm just providing the data (as best I can: if I've made a mistake and someone wants to point it out, let me know and I can edit the OP, as I did with RWBG's suggestion)

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01-22-2013, 07:45 PM
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I'm thinking the lack of Russians drafted with the Sens has more to do with the KHL than anything else. The results of drafting Russians are pretty binary now: they're either really good and stick on your top line or they screw off to Russia and make twice as much as they'd make here.

On the other hand if someone like Zibanejad doesn't live up to his hype and become a star there's a decent chance he would play on the 2nd/3rd line and stay in North America.

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01-22-2013, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arglebargle View Post
I'm thinking the lack of Russians drafted with the Sens has more to do with the KHL than anything else. The results of drafting Russians are pretty binary now: they're either really good and stick on your top line or they screw off to Russia and make twice as much as they'd make here.

On the other hand if someone like Zibanejad doesn't live up to his hype and become a star there's a decent chance he would play on the 2nd/3rd line and stay in North America.
Yeah.

It would be interesting to see the % of Russians drafted in each of the periods of time that the OP has selected. I don't believe it is that high.

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01-22-2013, 08:03 PM
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Good.

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01-22-2013, 08:18 PM
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N Bahn Ahden
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It would be stupid to say flat out that you won't draft any Russians. But I'm all for being highly selective in the ones you'll consider. Until I hear otherwise, that's how I'll assume Murray operates.

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01-22-2013, 08:34 PM
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BUT he has traded for Filatov & signed both Gonchar & Kovalev although there has been talk that it was Melnyk that wanted those signings more than Murray, who knows.

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01-22-2013, 08:55 PM
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Maybe it's a good thing he doesn't draft Russians because that is a pretty ugly list.

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01-22-2013, 08:59 PM
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HavlatMach9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aragorn View Post
BUT he has traded for Filatov & signed both Gonchar & Kovalev although there has been talk that it was Melnyk that wanted those signings more than Murray, who knows.
Everyone knows Murray has no problem with Russian players, just his reluctance to draft them.

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01-22-2013, 09:01 PM
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Its too risky with how the KHL is aggressively trying to expand. Sign em' when they're available otherwise don't draft them unless you think they are NHL ready when drafted. Though Im not against swinging for the fences with later picks.

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01-22-2013, 09:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FolignoQuantumLeap View Post
Its too risky with how the KHL is aggressively trying to expand. Sign em' when they're available otherwise don't draft them unless you think they are NHL ready when drafted. Though Im not against swinging for the fences with later picks.
On this we agree & I've said it many times regarding drafting Russian players. It's nice to see some of them that have been drafted recently are going to play with their respective teams but I wonder how many of them would stay in NA if they were asked to go down to the AHL to play for a while? I still thing they are too big a risk to leave at any time & go play in the KHL, like Filatov did. I'd rather Ottawa draft the BPA who isn't Russian, there are a lot of very good hockey players to choose from.

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01-22-2013, 10:25 PM
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I trust Murray completely, but I really wanted Tarasenko if he fell to us, I really wanted us to trade up for Grigorenko last year once he fell to around 10, and I really want Nicushkin (hope I spelt that right) this year, but I don't think it's gonna happen.

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01-22-2013, 10:31 PM
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HavlatMach9
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Murray himself has said that unless the Russian is Ovechkin like pick, he will not pick them.

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01-22-2013, 11:11 PM
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Yeah I think it's a very different thing to draft a Russian player vs. trade for/sign one who's already in the league, or already in an NHL team's development stream.

A kid who's clearly going to be a star is different - if you think you can bring him over within a year or two of the draft and put him in the NHL with absolute certainty, that's a safe pick. A lesser talent who'd need to spend some years in the minors before breaking into the big team's ranks, that's a riskier prospect. If there's a KHL job waiting at home, I can hardly blame them for not wanting to spend a couple seasons riding a bus in the AHL.

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01-22-2013, 11:38 PM
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playasRus
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If you think about it it's quite logical.

Every pick has a bust potential. International picks have an additional risk of not wanting to move away from home.

Could also be that we dont put much money into scouting russian junior leagues. Have to admit it'd be costly to fly guys all over russia.

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01-22-2013, 11:45 PM
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The thing is Murray hasn't applied that reasoning to Swedes. I haven't looked at the numbers but it seems like the Sens have drafted a lot of Swedes since Murray became GM.

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01-22-2013, 11:45 PM
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BonkTastic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by playasRus View Post
If you think about it it's quite logical.

Every pick has a bust potential. International picks have an additional risk of not wanting to move away from home.

Could also be that we dont put much money into scouting russian junior leagues.
Have to admit it'd be costly to fly guys all over russia.
This might be a really good point. If you already know you're not going to draft any Russians, you can assign those resources to other areas and double-up in other regions... like, for instance, twice as many scouts in Sweden/Finland/Czech Rep?

Get a leg up elsewhere by sacrificing Russia.

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01-23-2013, 05:40 AM
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JonnyMacSen
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Murray doesn't seem to draft Finn's either.

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01-23-2013, 06:53 AM
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BonkTastic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyMacSen View Post
Murray doesn't seem to draft Finn's either.
From 1995-2010, there were exactly 4200 draft picks (weird that it was a round number like that). Of those 4200 picks, 216 were from Finland. That means, in that time period, roughly 5% of players drafted were Finnish.

Murray has drafted the following Fins in that time period:
- Janne Pesonen
- Juha Alen
- Ville Mantymaa
- Joonas Vihko
- Janis Sprukts
- Niklas Hagman

So if we do the math, 6 players out of 216. An equal share (216 divided by 30 teams) of Finnish players drafted from that 216 would be ~7 players, so Murray's a little behind with 6, though not that far off the average.

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