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What are the chances MacKinnon is a bust?

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Old
01-24-2013, 11:45 AM
  #26
canucksPK
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At worst you have a 70ish point Centerman who is always a physical threat keeping dmen on their toes. Upside is 90-100 points and dominant all over ice.

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01-24-2013, 11:48 AM
  #27
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Yeah. Personally I don't feel he'll bust. But I don't see a Crosby, Making, Stamkos, Tavares type talent in him. Maybe a bit above Hall. I see him being a good 70 point two way player.

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01-24-2013, 11:51 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
Tens of thousands of tons of space particles hit earth every year. Just a heads up.
They aren't comets. Most comets are at least a few hundred metres across and are much rarer than asteroids, meteors, and general space debris. That said, there's a much greater chance that MacKinnon will be a bust, though I think he was being facetious.

On topic, we have to define our expectations for him. Are we expecting him to be the next Crosby? If so, then he's, in my opinion, likely to be a disappointment (though not necessarily a bust). If we're expecting him to be a top ten or twenty forward, those are still high expectations, but much more realistic. If we're expecting him to be merely a good first line centre (he plays centre, right?), then we're probably underestimating his abilities, and he's very unlikely to disappoint. Just my take.


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01-24-2013, 11:55 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tfong View Post
Hypothetically, and it is purely hypothetical...but what are the chances MacKinnon busts and we see the next Daigle or Stefan? Are there holes in his game that most of us have simply over looked because we don't watch him on a game to game basis?

I mean who would have thought someone like Johnson would've been traded 6 years after draft because the team no longer thought of him as their franchise player?

Howmuch of MacKinnon is hype rather than fact? Does he really have the traits of a franchise altering player? Or just a solid first liner?

I say this as I just happened to be thinking how much Drouin made a name for himself in the WJC and MCK was more of an after thought.
you probably could have ended the post after the bolded statement.

Comparing him to a defenceman that was drafted as you point out 6 years ago doesn't support your position. It's post filler.

As for Drouin, since no one expected this much out of him, naturally it's going to be the bigger story. Granted, he's a solid player and a key contributor to his junior team, but the names that were on the Canadian team greatly overshadowed his. For him to play as well as he did is a story unto itself.

I don't think that it vaulted him ahead of Nate, but that's just my opinion.

If anything, it made the #2 pick overall a tough choice if Nate is selected 1st.

If Seth Jones is the #1 pick, Drouin is #3

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01-24-2013, 12:11 PM
  #30
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01-24-2013, 12:13 PM
  #31
shortshorts
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Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
At worst you have a 70ish point Centerman who is always a physical threat keeping dmen on their toes. Upside is 90-100 points and dominant all over ice.
At worst he's a 1st line center?


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01-24-2013, 12:41 PM
  #32
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I have some reservations about his ability to use his size in the NHL. His skating is too strong for him to fail as an NHL player, and there is absolutely no reason to think that he lacks drive like Daigle. Low end I can see is a 50 point player relying mainly on his shot and skating for offence, strong both ways. High end is about a 40-40 player that is strong both ways.

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01-24-2013, 12:42 PM
  #33
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MacKinnon kind of reminds me of a RH Hall.

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01-24-2013, 12:45 PM
  #34
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Depends on who drafts him.... The last three #1's were seemingly consensus busts after the Oilers drafted each.

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01-24-2013, 12:46 PM
  #35
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Well he wasn't going to play ahead of R. N-H, Huberdeau , Strome, Rattie and Scheifele, being 17.
And how'd that work out?

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01-24-2013, 12:51 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
At worst you have a 70ish point Centerman who is always a physical threat keeping dmen on their toes. Upside is 90-100 points and dominant all over ice.
That's ridiculous.

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01-24-2013, 12:51 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
At worst he's a 1st line center?

With his skill set/hockey sense, yeah.

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01-24-2013, 12:53 PM
  #38
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That's ridiculous.
Not really. Maybe 60-65ish very low end. But its pretty far fetched imo to think he wont be a 70-90 pt nhler in his future. He really is that good.

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01-24-2013, 12:57 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frag2 View Post
MacKinnon kind of reminds me of a RH Hall.
I agree. I do think MacKinnon has a slight edge in a few respects. I like his balance better, and his defensive game is ahead of where Hall's was at the same time, not that I would put much weight on the latter anyway. I do think he is a smarter player than Hall overall, while he does not play quite as physical a game (although it's still excellent for this type of talent).

I have high hopes for MacKinnon. If he ends up at the same level as Hall, then the team that drafts him will be ecstatic. As much as I am loving the Galchenyuk pick for Montreal, I think MacKinnon is a true game breaking forward that would work perfectly for Montreal in a 1-2 punch scenario down the middle. Of course, this is assuming Montreal somehow gets in a position to take him.

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01-24-2013, 01:36 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
Not really. Maybe 60-65ish very low end. But its pretty far fetched imo to think he wont be a 70-90 pt nhler in his future. He really is that good.
No. Sorry. He doesn't have the floor of a 1st line player in the NHL.

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01-24-2013, 01:40 PM
  #41
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There's not much chance that he'll be a complete bust, but there's a chance that one or more forwards end up better than him, so he might go down as being drafted a few spots too high. But he's definitely not gonna bust.

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01-24-2013, 01:43 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
Not really. Maybe 60-65ish very low end. But its pretty far fetched imo to think he wont be a 70-90 pt nhler in his future. He really is that good.
The only player in the last while to come into the NHL and have a #1C be his floor was Sidney Crosby

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01-24-2013, 03:51 PM
  #43
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Really depends how you classify bust. He will probably be an NHL player regardless of what role he plays for his team.

The chance for him to be less then expected is obviously a possibility just like every other first overall pick.

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01-24-2013, 03:55 PM
  #44
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It is scary how much Mac is getting under-rated. He will be a tavares type player. There is honestly about no chance that he busts !

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01-24-2013, 04:00 PM
  #45
tfong
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Just for clarification by bust I mean not living up to being a top line center more so than I mean not making the nhl.

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01-24-2013, 04:04 PM
  #46
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1. Serious injury
2. Series of nagging injuries (ex. back injuries, concussions, etc.)
3. Lack of motivation (ex. personal issues, life changing events etc. etc.)

There are some possible reasons for becoming a bust for a player like MacKinnon. For him it's not about whether he will develop enough, because he is already that good. But nothing is certain because effectively he's still a child. There is no such thing as a "floor of X amount of points".

FWIW I'm not saying anything like this is likely to happen.

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01-24-2013, 04:11 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tfong View Post
Just for clarification by bust I mean not living up to being a top line center more so than I mean not making the nhl.
Well, in that case.................

About a zero. I mean, injuries are always a possibility, but beyond that he's a sure thing.

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01-24-2013, 05:55 PM
  #48
Jabba11
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I would absolutely draft a Bob Gainey or Guy Carbonneau 1st overall if his ceiling is a 2nd or 3rd line centerman with 50 points a year and wins the Selke couple of times.

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01-24-2013, 06:48 PM
  #49
BLASPHEMOUS
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I would absolutely draft a Bob Gainey or Guy Carbonneau 1st overall if his ceiling is a 2nd or 3rd line centerman with 50 points a year and wins the Selke couple of times.
Would you take him over a solid defensive player who gets 90 points a year?

Sorry, I don't follow you.

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01-24-2013, 07:40 PM
  #50
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I'm confident that he'll be a #1 centre in the future. However, I no longer believe that he's a generational talent.

Now that I think about it, the term "generational" is thrown around far too often.

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