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Will a goalie ever be drafted 1st overall ever again?

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Old
01-28-2013, 12:17 PM
  #51
PSGJ
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It's baffling how bad people are at evaluating goaltenders. Fleury is the new Osgood, getting undeserved praise for playing behind a great team.

From one of the smartest bloggers out there, Derek Zona: http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/4/25...fleury-good-no

A few choice excerpts:

Quote:
In 2009, Fleury's save percentage was .9082, good for 11th amongst post-season goaltenders. His even-strength save percentage was .9144, good for 11th that playoff year. In fact, Fleury's career save percentage in the playoffs is .9043, which ranks 40th out of 55 playoff goaltenders since the lockout.
Quote:
Since the lockout, the combined even strength save percentage of all goaltenders is .9188. The combined even strength save percentage of qualifying goaltenders (25 GP or more) is .9201. Fleury's post-lockout save percentage is .9188, in line with the average for all goaltenders, below average for qualifying goaltenders.
Quote:
Dreger remarked that Fleury carried the Penguins in Crosby's absence. The truth is that Fleury ranked 28th of 45 goaltenders in 2011-12 in total save percentage and 35th of 45 in even-strength save percentage. The Penguins were 1st in goals for, 1st in shots for, and 4th in shots against. It wasn't Fleury who carried the Penguins, it was team offense and defense. It's always the same with the Penguins.

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Old
01-28-2013, 12:42 PM
  #52
GetThePuckOut
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If it was a weak draft, an incredible goaltender, and a strong case of team needs, then I could see it happening. That's a lot of stars aligning though, especially these days when every draft has a strong top end.


Last edited by GetThePuckOut: 01-28-2013 at 03:19 PM.
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Old
01-28-2013, 03:31 PM
  #53
Slick Eller
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Let me ask another question, a bit off topic.

Looking back at the 2005 draft... Is it a bad pick/decision, to pick Carey Price 5th overall ? Should he and Rask deserved to be taken in the 1st round ?

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Old
01-28-2013, 03:46 PM
  #54
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
Picking goalies in the top 10 is even huge risk. If we look at all the goalies that have been picked in the top 10 since 2000, how many are impact players?

2000- Rick DiPietro (1st overall)
2000- Brett Krahn (9th overall)

2001- Pascal Leclaire (8th overall)
2001- Dan Blackburn (10th overall)

2002- Kari Lehtonen (2nd overall)

2003- Marc Andre Fleury (1st overall)

2004- Al Montoya (6th overall)

2005- Carey Price (5th overall)

2006- None

2007- None

2008- None

2009- None

2010- None

2011- None

2012- None

A goalie hasn't been picked in the top 10 since Carey Price. Teams don't seem to like risking their top picks on goalies anymore because it's a crap shoot for the most part. You can pick a very good goalie in any round of the draft.
While I agree; I don't think a goalie will be picked in the top 10 for a very long time let alone a first overall pick, most of those goalies were extremely talented. However they all have something in common, at least the ones who failed.

DiPietro had his development railroaded, so he's very much a raw goalie to this day. Brent Krahn was the same way, injuries destroyed his development. Leclaire had injuries, though they weren't that severe and he finally broke through in 07-08 before he fell apart again. Blackburn was ruined by injuries long before he had a chance to make an impact. Kari Lehtonen had conditioning issues which led to his struggles but he's rebounded now and is probably a top 10 goalie in the league. Fleury has never had injury problems, but he was never exactly developed properly, which I think may be a reason with his consistency issues. Montoya was destroyed by injuries as well, has sort of rebounded but is only a backup.

Only Carey Price has avoided both injuries and developmental issues, the one thing that all the other goalies have in common. Out of those 10 goalies, we have 5 NHL goalies, DiPietro, Lehtonen, Fleury, Montoya, Price. Out of those 5, two are top 10 goalies, one is a middle of the pack. Overall, there's 3 starters. Pretty bad ratio for top 10 selections but it seems if you can avoid poor development and injuries you can have a solid goalie.

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Old
01-29-2013, 04:06 PM
  #55
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I'll go out on a limb and say...it's possible.

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01-29-2013, 04:19 PM
  #56
InfinityIggy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slick Eller View Post
Let me ask another question, a bit off topic.

Looking back at the 2005 draft... Is it a bad pick/decision, to pick Carey Price 5th overall ? Should he and Rask deserved to be taken in the 1st round ?
I dont think Montreal fans would say so, they have a steady tender for the next 15 years. People undervalue consistent starting goalies sometimes I think.

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01-29-2013, 04:44 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
While I agree; I don't think a goalie will be picked in the top 10 for a very long time let alone a first overall pick, most of those goalies were extremely talented. However they all have something in common, at least the ones who failed.

DiPietro had his development railroaded, so he's very much a raw goalie to this day. Brent Krahn was the same way, injuries destroyed his development. Leclaire had injuries, though they weren't that severe and he finally broke through in 07-08 before he fell apart again. Blackburn was ruined by injuries long before he had a chance to make an impact. Kari Lehtonen had conditioning issues which led to his struggles but he's rebounded now and is probably a top 10 goalie in the league. Fleury has never had injury problems, but he was never exactly developed properly, which I think may be a reason with his consistency issues. Montoya was destroyed by injuries as well, has sort of rebounded but is only a backup.

Only Carey Price has avoided both injuries and developmental issues, the one thing that all the other goalies have in common. Out of those 10 goalies, we have 5 NHL goalies, DiPietro, Lehtonen, Fleury, Montoya, Price. Out of those 5, two are top 10 goalies, one is a middle of the pack. Overall, there's 3 starters. Pretty bad ratio for top 10 selections but it seems if you can avoid poor development and injuries you can have a solid goalie.
You're making a lot of excuses for the Goalie busts. One injury shouldn't ruin a Goaltender ten years later unless he's lazy coming back from it/not tough enough to play through pain. The truth is that it's pretty dang difficult to project goaltenders. Krahn looked like a stud his first year in Juniors prompting the 9th overall selection. His next two years he wasn't even a very good goalie in the WHL. It happens. Remember what a star Justin Pogge looked like his last year of Juniors?

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01-29-2013, 04:45 PM
  #58
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What a silly question, there will be lots. Hockey isn't going anywhere.

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01-29-2013, 06:36 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Generic User View Post
Pretty much this. Might not happen for 10 years but then again it might.
yep

eventually there will be some prodigy of a Goalie,possibly in a weak draft year as well and the team picking 1st overall won't be able to resist

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01-29-2013, 08:33 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSGJ View Post
It's baffling how bad people are at evaluating goaltenders. Fleury is the new Osgood, getting undeserved praise for playing behind a great team.
A few choice excerpts:
Inb4 someone tries to use shot quality as an argument. Also "he won a cup so there". Fleury's not a "bad" goalie, but he's just... mediocre. He's not an all star, he's not even above average. I just find it weird that even after the Blackhawks won with Antti Niemi people still pin all this team success on their goalies.

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01-29-2013, 08:45 PM
  #61
CASUAL KEV
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No. It's to risky considering how long they take to develop.

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01-29-2013, 08:54 PM
  #62
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For sure there will be but that kid will have to be some kinda talent to do so. Goalies just dont get that good until 22-25

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01-29-2013, 08:59 PM
  #63
tgo0
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
I dont see it happening unless there is a prospect thats the next coming of Brodeur, even then people might not be going for it.
I think it'll have to be a perfect storm of a goalie looking like an amazing prospect and it being a weaker draft class.

Sidenote: Is it possible for a goalie to be granted exceptional status in the CHL? At all realistic? I don't watch much/any hockey below that so honestly have no idea how players look at that age.

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01-29-2013, 09:04 PM
  #64
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If the skater pool is very shallow and the goalie pool is pretty deep, maybe.

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01-29-2013, 09:05 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flames12 View Post
I know goalies are the huge risk, but I don't see it we will be lucky if a goalie will be drafted top 10 in the next 10 years unless a team needs a goalie really bad. Most of the better goalies now were 5th rounders etc. I'm just wondering if we will see a MAF anytime soon?
Given the recent success rate with position players in the 1st round and the lack of success with goalies taken high, i would highly doubt a goalie being taken in the 1st round, in the top 10 pretty much impossible.

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01-30-2013, 01:08 PM
  #66
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
You're making a lot of excuses for the Goalie busts. One injury shouldn't ruin a Goaltender ten years later unless he's lazy coming back from it/not tough enough to play through pain. The truth is that it's pretty dang difficult to project goaltenders. Krahn looked like a stud his first year in Juniors prompting the 9th overall selection. His next two years he wasn't even a very good goalie in the WHL. It happens. Remember what a star Justin Pogge looked like his last year of Juniors?
Injuries aren't the only reason but of all the goalies that busted, poor decisons by the club that drafted them and injuries are common traits found in all of them. That is no coincidence.

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