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Old
01-27-2013, 03:55 PM
  #301
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
And Fabian Brunnstrom was a future HoFer too after his first four NHL games with 5 points and a hat-trick in his first NHL game.

Hall, Eberle, RNH and Schultz couldn't make the OKC win enough for playoffs, how are they going to do it for Edmonton? Takes more than putting up points to win games.
When was the last time a young dman stepped into the AHL and produced like Justin Schultz? What he did is mind-boggling.

Can't really blame Gillis because we don't know how he went about trying to lure Schultz to Vancouver but let's not try and undersell what a monumental loss that was having him go to the Oilers. Now drafting Yann Sauve 1 pick before him, that's one I'm sure the scouting staff would like a mulligan on.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Schultz put up close to a PPG this season as a rookie. Just a ridiculous talent.

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01-27-2013, 04:02 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
This seems like a strange place to bring up stats when by watching him you can see that he's at fault for close to a half of the goals that have been scored against his team. Bad luck would be him being on the ice at all the wrong times, meanwhile he's on the ice and directly causing goals against. These aren't just minor mistakes either, he left Ward completely unmarked in front of the net and then deflected another puck right into his own net.

50% offensive zone starts are perfectly fine, nothing wrong with that. Sedins are an anomaly in this league.
The Sedins are an anomaly because the coaches in Vancouver are utilizing them properly. Players who lack footspeed and play a good zone game should get more offensive zone starts -- that's how I'd use Hodgson if I was in charge of the Sabres.

It's not a "strange place to bring up stats" at all. You guys are harping on extreme statistical outliers to make a case against Hodgson. Does he look bad? Yes. Would people notice he looked this bad if a statistically anomalous amount of those chances weren't ending up in the back of the net? Of course not.

There is absolutely no statistical chance in the world (really) that Hodgson is so bad defensively that the on-ice SV% of his team would drop like 60 points from league-average ES goaltending. Nobody is that bad. The worst players probably drop your one-ice SV% by 10-20 points.

Using anomalous statistics based on absurdly small sample sizes to make sweeping conclusions isn't really fair. I think Hodgson's defense clearly needs work -- I watched him enough last year to know that. But this stretch right here is more about variance than anything else. When his on-ice numbers regress to the mean and nobody scores against his line for two weeks (or whatever), will people on here be itching to give him a Selke?

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01-27-2013, 04:05 PM
  #303
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Cody Hodgson is a ****ing train wreck in his own zone.
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01-27-2013, 04:08 PM
  #304
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It's not a "strange place to bring up stats" at all. You guys are harping on extreme statistical outliers to make a case against Hodgson. Does he look bad? Yes. Would people notice he looked this bad if a statistically anomalous amount of those chances weren't ending up in the back of the net? Of course not.

There is absolutely no statistical chance in the world (really) that Hodgson is so bad defensively that the on-ice SV% of his team would drop like 60 points from league-average ES goaltending. Nobody is that bad. The worst players probably drop your one-ice SV% by 10-20 points.

Using anomalous statistics based on absurdly small sample sizes to make sweeping conclusions isn't really fair. I think Hodgson's defense clearly needs work -- I watched him enough last year to know that. But this stretch right here is more about variance than anything else. When his on-ice numbers regress to the mean and nobody scores against his line for two weeks (or whatever), will people on here be itching to give him a Selke?
We're talking about a sample size of 25 games where Hodgson has looked horrible. Chances are he's not this bad but he's still one of the worst, if not the worst, Top 6 centres in the league right now.

And the reason nobody in the NHL is so bad as to put up .850 consistently is because they don't get put into that position consistently. If Hodgson spends the rest of the season at #1C, you can expect his stats to continue to look like this. Of course then I would expect Buffalo to fire their coach for misusing Hodgson in such a way.

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01-27-2013, 04:10 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
The Sedins are an anomaly because the coaches in Vancouver are utilizing them properly. Players who lack footspeed and play a good zone game should get more offensive zone starts -- that's how I'd use Hodgson if I was in charge of the Sabres.

It's not a "strange place to bring up stats" at all. You guys are harping on extreme statistical outliers to make a case against Hodgson. Does he look bad? Yes. Would people notice he looked this bad if a statistically anomalous amount of those chances weren't ending up in the back of the net? Of course not.

There is absolutely no statistical chance in the world (really) that Hodgson is so bad defensively that the on-ice SV% of his team would drop like 60 points from league-average ES goaltending. Nobody is that bad. The worst players probably drop your one-ice SV% by 10-20 points.

Using anomalous statistics based on absurdly small sample sizes to make sweeping conclusions isn't really fair. I think Hodgson's defense clearly needs work -- I watched him enough last year to know that. But this stretch right here is more about variance than anything else. When his on-ice numbers regress to the mean and nobody scores against his line for two weeks (or whatever), will people on here be itching to give him a Selke?


For the people pumping out a statistical argument, a statistical counter-argument is more than fair game. Your post in reply to opendoor, for example, is completely valid. However, Tiranis isn't citing stats. He's pointing to 6 direct occurrences of Hodgson being directly at fault for those goals against. 6 of the 14 total. Opendoor adds to this by saying that he's been on for 10 of the 14. So while stats can explain Hodgson being on for 2/3rds, it's insufficient for the 1/3rds he was directly responsible for.

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01-27-2013, 04:16 PM
  #306
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For some added context, I would say that an elite goaltender in the NHL probably saves roughly 80% of scoring chances on a good night, depending on how you count chances, and I think that number includes odd-manned chances as well. The Sabres SV% at ES before tonight was 85% when Hodgson was on the ice.

The worst SV% for a team at 5 on 5 in the entire league last year was Tampa, at .899 -- and they had abysmal goaltending, not Ryan Miller. Even with an off-year from Miller in 2011-2012, the Sabres had an ES SV% as a team of 92.1%.

You could put me out there instead of Hodgson and their SV% wouldn't be 85% over the course of a season. You know how I know this? Becaus only three teams in the entire NHL has a short-handed 4 v 5 SV% of 85% or less last season. Buffalo's? 88.4%. And, I repeat, that was short-handed.

What you're seeing right now is a really small sample size, some poor defending by Hodgson, and wildly unsustainable results. By all means, schadenfreude it up, but it does need some context.

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Old
01-27-2013, 04:18 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
And the reason nobody in the NHL is so bad as to put up .850 consistently is because they don't get put into that position consistently. If Hodgson spends the rest of the season at #1C, you can expect his stats to continue to look like this. Of course then I would expect Buffalo to fire their coach for misusing Hodgson in such a way.
They might be mis-using him, but this is just flat-out wrong. I forgot to mention above that league-average ES SV% is somewhere around 91.5%. I don't think there's any possibility Hodgson is bad enough to make that drop appreciably. If he's "the worst top 6 center in the NHL", it might realistically drop to 89.5/90%.

Edit: Hodgson's on-ice SV% last season was .918 at ES, for what it's worth. Obviously he played protected minutes in Vancouver (on a vastly better team), but still. If he was as bad as you suggest, that would never have happened playing any minutes.

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01-27-2013, 04:19 PM
  #308
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wouldn't worry about Marcus Foligno, said he was better than both Hodgson and Kassian but Kass has really stepped it up

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Old
01-27-2013, 04:22 PM
  #309
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You could put me out there instead of Hodgson and their SV% wouldn't be 85% over the course of a season. You know how I know this? Becaus only three teams in the entire NHL has a short-handed 4 v 5 SV% of 85% or less last season. Buffalo's? 88.4%. And, I repeat, that was short-handed.
They're not on the PK those 16-ish minutes that Hodgson is out there, they're also trying to score and as a result take chances. You might have a point if the team just fell into PK formation and defended but that's not what's happening. A lot of Hodgson's mistakes come as a result of him wanting to cheat offensively — that is not something that would happen on a PK. His teammates are also relying on him to hold certain coverages which if they were on a PK, they wouldn't have that expectation.

Your argument was decent up until for whatever reason you decided to bring up 5v4 as a valid point of comparison. Just shocked at how poor of a comparison this is.

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01-27-2013, 04:27 PM
  #310
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For the people pumping out a statistical argument, a statistical counter-argument is more than fair game. Your post in reply to opendoor, for example, is completely valid. However, Tiranis isn't citing stats. He's pointing to 6 direct occurrences of Hodgson being directly at fault for those goals against. 6 of the 14 total. Opendoor adds to this by saying that he's been on for 10 of the 14. So while stats can explain Hodgson being on for 2/3rds, it's insufficient for the 1/3rds he was directly responsible for.
Over the course of a season, any NHL player will be directly responsible for any number of scoring chances against. Hodgson's might be worse, marginally, or they may look worse because they're going in the net.

Almost any time there's a goal in a hockey game, there was a breakdown somewhere. If a player is experiencing some seriously bad luck, and an anomalous percentage of them are going in the net, he's going to look much worse than his play indicates. That's not really an arguable point, I don't think.

Look, this is kinda like if I came here and said we should have signed Daniel Winnik because he looks like he's going to score 55 goals in 48 games this year. If someone pointed out that he's shooting a completely unsustainable 45.5%, would it not be silly for me to start talking about how I'd seen his games and his shot looked so good that I thought he'd continue to shoot 45.5% if they kept him in his current role?

There's no precedent for it. It just isn't going to happen, guys.

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01-27-2013, 04:28 PM
  #311
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Rough outing for Coho today.

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Old
01-27-2013, 04:29 PM
  #312
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And to add, I don't think anybody expects him to be on for 70% of their GA going forward. What's being argued is that Hodgson is not even close to ready for these types of minutes. My argument has been that he's one of the worst defensive Top 6 players in the NHL — whatever that realistically translates to in terms of stats.

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01-27-2013, 04:30 PM
  #313
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Your argument was decent up until for whatever reason you decided to bring up 5v4 as a valid point of comparison. Just shocked at how poor of a comparison this is.
Of course the chances are different, but even playing poor defense, a team isn't going to give up more/better scoring chances at ES than killing penalties regardless of who's on the ice.

It's simply a way to illustrate exactly how low an 85% SV% is at ES.

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01-27-2013, 04:34 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
And to add, I don't think anybody expects him to be on for 70% of their GA going forward. What's being argued is that Hodgson is not even close to ready for these types of minutes. My argument has been that he's one of the worst defensive Top 6 players in the NHL *whatever that realistically translates to in terms of stats.
We can agree to disagree. I think it's too early to draw that conclusion. I do agree with you about how the Sabres are utilizing him, for what it's worth. I'd have him playing more favorable zone starts (probably 60%) to take advantage of his good offensive zone play.

I'm also not arguing that Hodgson looks good defensively, just that people are drawing very strong conclusions from very small samples. I'd wait for another 3-4 weeks to start looking too much into trends, and even a 48 game season isn't much to draw firm conclusions from.

Just my 2 cents.

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01-27-2013, 04:36 PM
  #315
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We can agree to disagree. I think it's too early to draw that conclusion. I do agree with you about how the Sabres are utilizing him, for what it's worth. I'd have him playing more favorable zone starts (probably 60%) to take advantage of his good offensive zone play.

I'm also not arguing that Hodgson looks good defensively, just that people are drawing very strong conclusions from very small samples. I'd wait for another 3-4 weeks to start looking too much into trends, and even a 48 game season isn't much to draw firm conclusions from.

Just my 2 cents.
I've watched him play about 15 games in Buffalo now and in every one of those games he has looked outmatched. Through those 25 games his defensive stats have been horrible (not just bad). When isn't it too soon to declare that he's clearly very, very bad defensively?

Hell, I watched him play in the AHL too. I watched him play with Canucks. Hodgson is simply a very, very poor defensive player. On every team and every level since he left junior.

Does it matter if the current rate is unsustainable if a more sustainable rate would still put him in the bottom league-wide?

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01-27-2013, 04:40 PM
  #316
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I was so hoping Washington would get blown out today.

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01-27-2013, 04:40 PM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I've watched him play about 15 games in Buffalo now and in every one of those games he has looked outmatched. Through those 25 games his defensive stats have been horrible (not just bad). When isn't it too soon to declare that he's clearly very, very bad defensively?

Hell, I watched him play in the AHL too. I watched him play with Canucks. Hodgson is simply a very, very poor defensive player. On every team and every level since he left junior.

Does it matter if the current rate is unsustainable if a more sustainable rate would still put him in the bottom league-wide?
ES SV% when he was on the ice last year was .918. He might not be good in his own zone, but if he's good enough offensively to not be there very often, it won't be an issue (something the Sedins take advantage of). I'm not saying he's good defensively: I'm saying his previous results aren't bottom of the league.

25 games is a small sample size when you look at PDO. I'd honestly say you can't draw very strong conclusions until you have a couple seasons of data on him.

But I'll leave it by saying, as I did already, that I agree his defense is not very good, and that I don't think he's suited to handle match-ups vs top lines. I do think with the right linemates he can be a 2nd line center, however, as long as his ES minutes are smartly used. I'm not even necessarily saying I disagree with that he might end up being just that bad, but it's an absurdly small sample size giving some really out there results.

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01-27-2013, 04:41 PM
  #318
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Really we are trying to contextualize poor defensive play, awareness, positioning and recovery on the goalie (who has looked pretty good so far this year).

I'm all for context, but I'm watching him suck not just looking at a box score.

The sample is pretty big going all the way back to last season.

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01-27-2013, 04:45 PM
  #319
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There is an odd man rush against his line every shift. Partly because he can't close the gap on the back check.

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01-27-2013, 04:45 PM
  #320
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I don't think Hodgson's defensive struggles are quiet as worrisome as some suggest. It is well document that he has been quite poor defensively to start his NHL career. However, defense can be learned. Hodgson, by most accounts, has a tremendous hockey IQ and I am quite certain that he will be able to develop his defensive skills and he grows older. When Steve Yzerman broke into the league he was also criticized as being a very poor defensive player. Years later he was known as one of the best all around centres in the entire year.

Moreover, I have been pleasantly surprised with the speed and strength that Hodgson is showing. I think that in the long run Hodgson will be just fine defensively.

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01-27-2013, 04:48 PM
  #321
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I don't think Hodgson's defensive struggles are quiet as worrisome as some suggest. It is well document that he has been quite poor defensively to start his NHL career. However, defense can be learned. Hodgson, by most accounts, has a tremendous hockey IQ and I am quite certain that he will be able to develop his defensive skills and he grows older. When Steve Yzerman broke into the league he was also criticized as being a very poor defensive player. Years later he was known as one of the best all around centres in the entire year.

Moreover, I have been pleasantly surprised with the speed and strength that Hodgson is showing. I think that in the long run Hodgson will be just fine defensively.
The speed and mobility is the problem with Hodgson. He's brutal on the back check, he simply can't keep up with the transition plays. In the defensive zone he doesn't have the acceleration to stick to his man. His skating isn't going to improve drastically enough for this to be greatly improved upon, his physical limitations due to his body type aren't going to make his legs grow longer for a less awkward stride.

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01-27-2013, 04:49 PM
  #322
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For some added context, I would say that an elite goaltender in the NHL probably saves roughly 80% of scoring chances on a good night, depending on how you count chances, and I think that number includes odd-manned chances as well. The Sabres SV% at ES before tonight was 85% when Hodgson was on the ice.

The worst SV% for a team at 5 on 5 in the entire league last year was Tampa, at .899 -- and they had abysmal goaltending, not Ryan Miller. Even with an off-year from Miller in 2011-2012, the Sabres had an ES SV% as a team of 92.1%.

You could put me out there instead of Hodgson and their SV% wouldn't be 85% over the course of a season. You know how I know this? Becaus only three teams in the entire NHL has a short-handed 4 v 5 SV% of 85% or less last season. Buffalo's? 88.4%. And, I repeat, that was short-handed.

What you're seeing right now is a really small sample size, some poor defending by Hodgson, and wildly unsustainable results. By all means, schadenfreude it up, but it does need some context.
Still, we're coming up on a 25-30 game sample of Hodgson with Buffalo where he's at a pace where he'd be on for 90+ GA in an 82 game season, which would put him top (or bottom depending on how you look at it) 3 in the NHL among forwards last season. Obviously he's not going to keep his 164 GA pace that he has this season, but he can cut that in half and still have some pretty bleak numbers.

With the ice time he's getting he's giving up about 7-8 ES shots against per game. Even with a .915 or .920 sv% that's 50-60 ES GA over the course of a season. Then throw in any PK goals he's on for, SH goals against, and EN goals against and he could definitely be up in the 80+ range which is pretty terrible when you look at a risk/reward scenario for him.

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01-27-2013, 04:50 PM
  #323
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I don't think Hodgson's defensive struggles are quiet as worrisome as some suggest. It is well document that he has been quite poor defensively to start his NHL career. However, defense can be learned. Hodgson, by most accounts, has a tremendous hockey IQ and I am quite certain that he will be able to develop his defensive skills and he grows older. When Steve Yzerman broke into the league he was also criticized as being a very poor defensive player. Years later he was known as one of the best all around centres in the entire year.

Moreover, I have been pleasantly surprised with the speed and strength that Hodgson is showing. I think that in the long run Hodgson will be just fine defensively.
You lost me at 'speed'.

To put it simple he can't keep up. That's his problem. He is so slow to get back every time.

But I'm not surprised you are seeing something nobody else is.

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01-27-2013, 04:51 PM
  #324
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I was so hoping Washington would get blown out today.
The Capitals constantly losing isn't what we need if we want them interested in Luongo.

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01-27-2013, 05:03 PM
  #325
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The speed and mobility is the problem with Hodgson. He's brutal on the back check, he simply can't keep up with the transition plays. In the defensive zone he doesn't have the acceleration to stick to his man. His skating isn't going to improve drastically enough for this to be greatly improved upon, his physical limitations due to his body type aren't going to make his legs grow longer for a less awkward stride.
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You lost me at 'speed'.

To put it simple he can't keep up. That's his problem. He is so slow to get back every time.

But I'm not surprised you are seeing something nobody else is.
This year, to me he looks to have improved upon his speed. I know that I am not the only one who thinks this, but I concede that I may be in the minority in thinking this (at least on this subforum).

I think a lot of his defensive issues this season haven't been the result of poor skating, but instead, lack of commitment to the defensive side of the game. On top of this he has made some poor/risky decisions with the puck. To be fair to Hodgson, that whole first line seems to be a train wreck defensively.

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