I think you'll only get picks unless they just need to shed a contract in which case the pick comes with a minor leaguer.
Could be the same return as Langenbrunner for NJ a conditional 3rd round pick (2nd rounder if team makes playoffs or re-signs Morrow, otherwise 3rd). It's not a great return, but it's something. Plus, Sceviour or Wandell lock in a full time roster spot.
I would expect something right around the value of a late 1st round pick at the deadline.
Players recently traded for 1st round picks ( or a pick was part of the package): Rick Nash; Jeff Carter (Twice), Jordan Staal, Semyon Varlamov, Kyle Quincey, Paul Gaustad, Phil Kessel, Chris Stewart/Kevin Shattenkirk, Dustin Penner, Mike Fisher, Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer, Brent Burns, and Tomas Kaberle.
Brenden Morrow doesn’t belong in that group. If it happens, that would be a huge steal by Dallas.
Brenden Morrow doesn’t belong in that group. If it happens, that would be a huge steal by Dallas.
I'd prefer a prospect. I wonder though if his value is maximized now or at the deadline (assuming the status-quo continues).
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44
NY Rangers, Pittsburgh, or New Jersey.
Not too long ago, someone hinted at Boston being a probable destination and a Boston fan or two were for adding him to line 3 with Kelly and Peverley, in exchange for a mid-level prospect.
As much as I hate it, the late trade deadline benefits Dallas fans. By April 3rd, approximately 75% of the games will have been played.
There's a good chance, with only 13 games remaining, that this deadline will have a more defined group of sellers and buyers. It could also be much easier for GMJN to accept the role of seller should the season continue down it's current path. I guess we'll have to see.
Not too long ago, someone hinted at Boston being a probable destination and a Boston fan or two were for adding him to line 3 with Kelly and Peverley, in exchange for a mid-level prospect.
I think fan's are going to fall for the Brenden Morrow mystique much easier than GM's and pro scouts.
As much as I hate it, the late trade deadline benefits Dallas fans. By April 3rd, approximately 75% of the games will have been played.
There's a good chance, with only 13 games remaining, that this deadline will have a more defined group of sellers and buyers. It could also be much easier for GMJN to accept the role of seller should the season continue down it's current path. I guess we'll have to see.
Wow I didn't realize it was so late. Yeah that actually does bode well for JN to see enough to say sell. I think Ryder has the most value but I'd take a conditional 3rd or a decent prospect and not blink for Morrow. There's no way anyone's parting with a 1st and I think a 2nd is a stretch but a 3rd shouldn't make many GMs blink and I hope Morrow agitates for an opportunity elsewhere if we're out.
Players recently traded for 1st round picks ( or a pick was part of the package): Rick Nash; Jeff Carter (Twice), Jordan Staal, Semyon Varlamov, Kyle Quincey, Paul Gaustad, Phil Kessel, Chris Stewart/Kevin Shattenkirk, Dustin Penner, Mike Fisher, Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer, Brent Burns, and Tomas Kaberle.
Brenden Morrow doesn’t belong in that group. If it happens, that would be a huge steal by Dallas.
Nash, Carter (twice), Staal, Varlamov, Kessel, Burns, Penner were all traded for something significantly more valuable than just a late 1st rounder. That leaves Versteeg, Fisher, Brouwer, Gaustad, Quincy and Kaberle who even come close to having been traded for a late 1st round pick. And I would argue Morrow is within that same realm.
Not to mention with the shortened season, the standings will be less spread out and more teams will be in the hunt. Someone will overpay for him and hope to squeeze a playoff run out of him.
As much as I hate it, the late trade deadline benefits Dallas fans. By April 3rd, approximately 75% of the games will have been played.
There's a good chance, with only 13 games remaining, that this deadline will have a more defined group of sellers and buyers. It could also be much easier for GMJN to accept the role of seller should the season continue down it's current path. I guess we'll have to see.
We'll have to see about. It may be "easier" but that doesn't mean JN gets to become a seller and it's been weird how he has approached the role of a seller. During the deadline of 2009-10, team was clearly out of a playoff spot with no plausible chance of making it, and somehow he could not or did not (don't know which) move Mike Modano when WSH expressed interest. And the years we were still in the hunt for a playoff spot in 2010-11 and 2011-12, he tried shopping Richards around the deadline in 2010-11 and even had a deal in place before Richards nixed it and successfully sold Grossmann to Philly around the deadline of 2011-12.
I think fan's are going to fall for the Brenden Morrow mystique much easier than GM's and pro scouts.
I agree. I just used that statement from a Boston fan as a probable destination in addition to your three. Then again, maybe he picks up the slack in a Boston, NYR, Penguins uniform without the burden of having to provide leadership? Boston's 1st, 2nd, and 4th lines are set. It's the LW of the line 3 that is not stable. There could be a spot for him.
Nash, Carter (twice), Staal, Varlamov, Kessel, Burns, Penner were all traded for something significantly more valuable than just a late 1st rounder. That leaves Versteeg, Fisher, Brouwer, Gaustad, Quincy and Kaberle who even come close to having been traded for a late 1st round pick. And I would argue Morrow is within that same realm.
Not to mention with the shortened season, the standings will be less spread out and more teams will be in the hunt. Someone will overpay for him and hope to squeeze a playoff run out of him.
The 2013 draft is considered a deep draft, and teams aren't going to give those picks away. We all have fond memories of Morrow, but his days of commanding a 1st round pick are long gone. Good drafts make teams horde picks in the 1st. The cap going down will also have a big impact on players like Whitney and Robidas should Dallas try to move them.
Every one of those players were still productive when they were traded, and they weren't suffering through significant injuries. Morrow can say he's the healthiest he's been, but anyone watching one period of a Dallas game can see that's not true.
The 2013 draft is considered a deep draft, and teams aren't going to give those picks away. We all have fond memories of Morrow, but his days of commanding a 1st round pick are long gone. Good drafts make teams horde picks in the 1st. The cap going down will also have a big impact on players like Whitney and Robidas should Dallas try to move them.
Every one of those players were still productive when they were traded, and they weren't suffering through significant injuries. Morrow can say he's the healthiest he's been, but anyone watching one period of a Dallas game can see that's not true.
Exception to the rule: Doug Armstrong trading the Corey Perry spot for Polak and Crombeen in 2003.
One more thing to point out Ambassador, I'd love for Dallas to get a 1st for Morrow, but saying it isn't possible isn't my bias towards Morrow coming out.
This is a predictable league. Jamie Benn and PK Subban signed predictable contracts that are extremely similar to their peers. 4 or 5 D at the deadline last year moved for 2nd + 3rd round picks. Two types of teams are willing to give up firsts at the deadlines: all those players above went to a team acquiring a long term asset or a desperate team trying to a final piece. Those "final pieces" were either younger players or older, productive players.
Very rarely in this league does something surprising happen like the Eric Johnson and Chris Steward trade. Jamie Langenbrunner was in the same stage of his career when Dallas acquired him as Morrow is now. Langs had the benefit of not being totally crippled by injuries though. A conditional 2nd/3rd is a realistic expectation, but there's always the chance some team makes a drastic decision.
Planning on that happening though seems like a waste.
Exception to the rule: Doug Armstrong trading the Corey Perry spot for Polak and Crombeen in 2003.
That was in reference to losing a pick for a roster player (which Armstrong also did several damn times - Nagy, Norstrom, etc.). Armstrong's fascination with quantity over quality is another depressing story I don't want to get into.
That was in reference to losing a pick for a roster player (which Armstrong also did several damn times - Nagy, Norstrom, etc.). Armstrong's fascination with quantity over quality is another depressing story I don't want to get into.
Well, 1st rounders are 1st rounders. Of course we'll never know what could've become of the picks we gave away in the Nagy and Norstrom trades (or other ones) but seeing how our draft history in round 1 since 1993 reads like: Harvey, Botterill, Iginla, Jackman, Morrow, Ott, Bacashihua, Vagner, Fistric, Niskanen, Vishnevskiy, (cough)Glennie(cough), Campbell, Oleksiak, and Faksa, it's easy to see we've picked more duds than studs.
As for Armstrong: Was that management pressure at that time to build a tight-checking grinding team that pushed him to do that? I don't know. He sure doesn't seem to exhibit his "quantity over quality" trait in St. Louis, even if it's too early to judge that.
I'm not saying he will be traded specifically for a 1st rounder, but I do think that that is possible. Something like a decent prospect and a 3rd, or a 2nd and a 4th is probably more likely and still falls in the category of "worth a late first rounder."
That was a different era. 1st rounders weren't valued the same way as they are now.
You may be right, even if the data doesn't indicate anything significantly different in terms of success rates of 1st rounders between the two eras. My guess is that the perception might have been warped by the "Pittsburgh model," which happened right at the beginning of the new era when they won the Crosby sweepstakes.
You may be right, even if the data doesn't indicate anything significantly different in terms of success rates of 1st rounders between the two eras. My guess is that the perception might have been warped by the "Pittsburgh model," which happened right at the beginning of the new era when they won the Crosby sweepstakes.
Free agency has really tightened up, so teams know they need their picks to hit in order to be successful.
Free agency has really tightened up, so teams know they need their picks to hit in order to be successful.
That would be the best possible argument if it weren't for teams still throwing big bucks at UFAs. And the term-lengths? Goodness gracious! I can't recall a single player that got anything beyond a 5-6 year term in the pre-cap era. Even the gaudy $21m RFA offersheet from NYR to Joe Sakic that spurred the spending craze which hasn't abated one bit today, was worth only for a 3 year term.
That would be the best possible argument if it weren't for teams still throwing big bucks at UFAs. And the term-lengths? Goodness gracious! I can't recall a single player that got anything beyond a 5-6 year term in the pre-cap era. Even the gaudy $21m RFA offersheet from NYR to Joe Sakic that spurred the spending craze which hasn't abated one bit today, was worth only for a 3 year term.
If the demand is high and the supply of quality UFAs is low, then the price goes up. Look at the past year and how many quality UFAs were out there. The competition for Suter and Parise was intense because those were the two players that could have fixed the problems on most teams.
