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02-14-2013, 01:08 PM
  #926
Halpysback
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
OK lets do it this way since we are talking about ROR here.

What is your proposed trade for him???

Keep in mind we'd necessarily say goodbye to Ribeiro in the off season if we make this trade. So it breaks down to:

ROR for Ribeiro+(roster player)+(top prospect)

Fill in the blanks and keep in mind we will not be the only bidder as there are teams with much more to offer. So don't try to put in any trash or high priced contract. If CO isn't going to pay ROR they aren't going to take a contract from us either.
Laich, Johansson and a 2nd. If we finish out of the top 7 maybe Johansson and a 1st.

We absolutely do not have to say goodbye to Ribeiro, even though I see him falling off if we resign him, he's the kind of player that plays well when he has a lot to prove. LA is making it work with Kopitar, Richards, Carter and Stoll. 10 of San Jose's skaters are centers as is half of Boston. New Jersey has Zajac, Elias, Henrique and Josefson as top 9 Cs. That's 4 successful teams there. I'd prefer we say goodbye to Laich and one of Ward or Brouwer, as well as our buttload of bottom pairing D.

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02-14-2013, 01:08 PM
  #927
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
OK lets do it this way since we are talking about ROR here.

What is your proposed trade for him???

Keep in mind we'd necessarily say goodbye to Ribeiro in the off season if we make this trade. So it breaks down to:

ROR for Ribeiro+(roster player)+(top prospect)

Fill in the blanks and keep in mind we will not be the only bidder as there are teams with much more to offer. So don't try to put in any trash or high priced contract. If CO isn't going to pay ROR they aren't going to take a contract from us either.
Well, if you were to acquire ROR this season, no reason you can't trade Ribeiro at the deadline. So you might get ROR + 1st/2nd rounder + prospect/warm body for Ribeiro + roster player + prospect.

I don't have a trade in mind, though. I already know other teams will have more to offer than the Caps can afford (I'm not offering up Kuz or Forsberg or a lottery pick). Only hope the Caps have (assuming they want him, obviously) is that Sherman is strange in terms of how he makes trades, and GMGM obviously has some sort of working relationship with him.

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02-14-2013, 01:09 PM
  #928
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Even in the fantasy world where you get Ribeiro for $5M and O'Reilly for $4M, there's simply not cap space left to build a roster.

Brouwer ($3.67M) - Backstrom ($6.7M) - Ovechkin ($9.5)
Laich ($4.5M) - Ribeiro ($5M) - XXX
Chimera ($1.75M) - O'Reilly ($4M) - Ward ($3M)
Beagle ($0.9M) - Perreault ($1.05M) - XXX
XXX/XXX

XXX - Green ($6.08M)
XXX - Carlson ($3.97M)
Schultz ($2.75M) - Orlov ($0.9M)
XXX

XXX
XXX

Cap payroll: $53.8M
Salary Cap: $64.3M
Cap space: $10.5M
Unfilled roster spots: 9
Cap space per spot: $1.16M

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02-14-2013, 01:10 PM
  #929
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
I mean, he was Colorado's best center last year at 21. I'd hope to god he's an upgrade over "most" of our bottom 6 players.

Pretty much all negatives of getting him are based on him taking a complete nosedive in his development, even though he's the type of player that's by far the safest to project (super hard working/gritty/etc). Yet for some reason our "futures" are super untouchable because THEY are gonna pan out, how could they not.

Even if he plateaus he's still basically Zajac, give or take.
By no means do I think most of our prospects should be untouchables.

If O'Reilly can be had for MOJO and one of our better prospects, then I am all about it. So long as we still resign Ribeiro.

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02-14-2013, 01:12 PM
  #930
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Originally Posted by msrulo View Post
O'Reilly and Wolski are good comparison, why would you want another overpaid Laich on this team. Did you ever watch the movie moneyball- stats are a good field of vision compared to personal defensive play. Baseball and hockey may not be the same sports but teams are having success just looking at stats. Maybe you want to make O'Rielly a Dustin Byfulien but that's another conversation.
Wolski and O'Reilly is an absolutely horrible comparison that doesn't take into account anything except early career stats, which have zero to do with what both players represent now. That team from "moneyball" didn't win a damn thing, but you'd have needed to pay attention to actually have seen that. You might as well give Petr Prucha a 5 million dollar contract to come and play here because he did well in his rookie season.

I'm done with this idiocy.

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02-14-2013, 01:14 PM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Even in the fantasy world where you get Ribeiro for $5M and O'Reilly for $4M, there's simply not cap space left to build a roster.

Brouwer ($3.67M) - Backstrom ($6.7M) - Ovechkin ($9.5)
Laich ($4.5M) - Ribeiro ($5M) - XXX
Chimera ($1.75M) - O'Reilly ($4M) - Ward ($3M)
Beagle ($0.9M) - Perreault ($1.05M) - XXX
XXX/XXX

XXX - Green ($6.08M)
XXX - Carlson ($3.97M)
Schultz ($2.75M) - Orlov ($0.9M)
XXX

XXX
XXX

Cap payroll: $53.8M
Salary Cap: $64.3M
Cap space: $10.5M
Unfilled roster spots: 9
Cap space per spot: $1.16M
All those people could be replaced for 1/2 to 1/3 the price with minimal drop-off in the quality of the team.

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02-14-2013, 01:15 PM
  #932
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Laich, Johansson and a 2nd. If we finish out of the top 7 maybe Johansson and a 1st.

We absolutely do not have to say goodbye to Ribeiro, even though I see him falling off if we resign him, he's the kind of player that plays well when he has a lot to prove. LA is making it work with Kopitar, Richards, Carter and Stoll. 10 of San Jose's skaters are centers as is half of Boston. New Jersey has Zajac, Elias, Henrique and Josefson as top 9 Cs. That's 4 successful teams there. I'd prefer we say goodbye to Laich and one of Ward or Brouwer, as well as our buttload of bottom pairing D.
Go suggest this to Colorado fans and see what they say..

You are clearly only thinking about it from a Caps POV.

Colorado is not looking to PAY ROR. Why would they take on Laich's contract?? They are a budget strapped team. They want cheap young players.

Johansson is a roster player not a prospect. They want a TOP prospect from all accounts (and that included Bob McKenzie so don't try to refute it)...this READS as one of Forsberg, Kuznetsov and maybe Wilson if CO values him as a "top" prospect.

EDIT: Love the "2nd" being thrown in there...the venerable 2nd round pick is an absolute staple of every HF proposal.

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02-14-2013, 01:18 PM
  #933
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Originally Posted by msrulo View Post
O'Reilly and Wolski are good comparison, why would you want another overpaid Laich on this team. Did you ever watch the movie moneyball- stats are a good field of vision compared to personal defensive play. Baseball and hockey may not be the same sports but teams are having success just looking at stats. Maybe you want to make O'Rielly a Dustin Byfulien but that's another conversation.
I was right all along about the trolling.

Also, O'Reilly and Wolski are a good comparison and O'Reilly is another Laich, so does that make Wolski and Laich comparable players too?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobRouse
Johansson is a roster player not a prospect. They want a TOP prospect from all accounts (and that included Bob McKenzie so don't try to refute it)
The appeal of a prospect is untapped potential. It's easy to make the case the Johansson is still developing. Why wouldn't they want a "prospect" who's proven he can play in the NHL and can contribute now?

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02-14-2013, 01:18 PM
  #934
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
He also had more ES TOI than either Stastny or Duchene. His PP TOI/G was tied with Stastny and only 3 seconds less than Duchene. He was used in every situation just as much or more than Stastny and Duchene. His linemates had higher production than either of Stastny's or Duchene's. He saw a dead even 50% offensive zone start (as opposed to McClement's 34.3% and Stastny's 50.7%).

How is that not a #1 center? Because he's also used heavily defensively? So is Datsyuk.
I would argue that his ESTOI is high because he was line matched against the opposing top line (which gets the most ice time).

As for the production of his linemates, one is shooting machine Calder-winning Gabriel Landeskog. Got it. The other is Daniel Winnik, who is essentially Chimera, or Steve Downie, who we know well. None of the Avs wingers are that great; Hejduk is old, McGinn came in late and hot, but tapered toward the end of the season; David Jones is inconsistent and can't hit the net, etc. Landeskog is a talent for sure, but from watching those games, I can tell you that line scored greasy goals. Work in the corners and driving the net type goals. It's not like O'Reilly was lined up with snipers. In fact, the only player Colorado has who really fits that bill is Hejduk.

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We're 4-8-1. Why do you care which of them is available right now? Do you really think we should be "buying" in the trade market? Wait until the off-season, then pounce of one of those guys.
When you get a guy who can help long-term AND now, I don't see the problem with moving immediately. What's wrong with getting a guy who can help now and in the future? Again, I'm not advocating a rental. O'Reilly is 21 and has 4 more years of service until UFA.

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Talk about moving the goal posts. I started this by saying that O'Reilly only makes sense if you're getting rid of Ribeiro. You countered with how O'Reilly is fine being a 3C and how we can keep both him and Ribeiro. Now you're saying that you want him instead of Ribeiro.
That's not what I meant. I meant that when Ribeiro does leave or get old, you have a guy who you know is ready to step in and take his place. I'm not counting on Johansson to be that guy.

Quote:
If we determined we aren't going to keep Ribeiro, then I agree we should pursue O'Reilly. But I don't think it's worth the assets to acquire O'Reilly when we have an internal option that has proven to be very highly effective in our current system. Especially if you could put those same assets (including the cap space) towards filling a higher priority vacancy.
I don't think they're mutually exclusive options, and acquiring O'Reilly would allow the Caps to ice a very strong two-way third line (assuming Chimera hasn't hit the wall) and a top shutdown 4th line, all while moving Laich back into the top 6, filling one of the wing holes (without arguing whether another option could fill that hole better).

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02-14-2013, 01:18 PM
  #935
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Wolski and O'Reilly is an absolutely horrible comparison that doesn't take into account anything except early career stats, which have zero to do with what both players represent now. That team from "moneyball" didn't win a damn thing, but you'd have needed to pay attention to actually have seen that. You might as well give Petr Prucha a 5 million dollar contract to come and play here because he did well in his rookie season.

I'm done with this idiocy.
Didn't win a damn thing but they were absolutely close, and on the cap perspective they were so cheap.

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02-14-2013, 01:21 PM
  #936
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The best part of all that is that the "moneyball" approach would probably favor O'Reilly quite nicely. His advanced stats show him to be excellent at driving possession. I worry that too much of his production came on the PP and what that means for his progression (and so I'm not quite up on the hype for him), but if you trust the underlying numbers it should be clear at the very least that he's developing into a good offensive player.

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02-14-2013, 01:21 PM
  #937
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How to troll on the web:

State opinion.. Wait.

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02-14-2013, 01:23 PM
  #938
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
My impression is that he's being offered Duchene's deal. He was Colorado's top C last year, both offensively and defensively, and I'm guessing he feels really slighted by the fact that they're still expecting him to come in as a 3C. Lack of opportunity for upward mobility drives people mad in every line of work including sports.
He was offered 7M over 2 years and 17M over 5 years (buying 1 UFA year).

From an Avs poster who claims to know the player (and has been mod approved), O'Reilly has an issue with Avalanche upper management. I would guess that it's a combination of many things. Keep in mind that he was reported to be close to signing with the Avs in the summer, and something derailed the negotiations. It wasn't like he was holding out all along.

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02-14-2013, 01:25 PM
  #939
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The best part of all that is that the "moneyball" approach would probably favor O'Reilly quite nicely. His advanced stats show him to be excellent at driving possession. I worry that too much of his production came on the PP and what that means for his progression (and so I'm not quite up on the hype for him), but if you trust the underlying numbers it should be clear at the very least that he's developing into a good offensive player.
He would do pretty good as a smaller version of Dustin Byfulien. O'reilly as a d-man would probably do better than Carlson lol.

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02-14-2013, 01:33 PM
  #940
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
Laich is underrated. He can play every forward position and even can play D if we are short!

He is strong on both the PK and PP. He's a responsible two way player that can play up and down the lineup.

Not many players in the NHL that versatile. Verstility is an important skill so don't undervalue it. He's a good vocal presence and has been here from day 1 of the firesale year.

I've never seen him take a shift off either.
Agree.

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OReilly from the limited I've seen and all I've heard is a good 2nd line center on a good team and a 3rd line center on a very good team.
That's what he is right now. He's 21. Is he done developing?

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We are now thin at wing.
Yes, but having Laich back at 2LW instead of 3C would go a long way toward solving that problem, without having to go after a rental.

Quote:
Again it would break down like this. We wouldn't be able to sign Ribeiro. We'd lose a roster player (lets just say MJ since most everyone thinks he's trash now) and a top prospect (lets say Forsberg).

I don't see that as a deal we can afford to make.
I'm not so sure they wouldn't be able to sign Ribeiro (although if he keeps up the pace he's on right now, he'd likely be priced out regardless). They have more than Ribeiro's salary in cap space, with Hamrlik and Poti off the books next year. Again, can't check CapGeek right now but will do so later.

I would think that Johansson (more so) or Laich (less so) is close enough in value to O'Reilly that it wouldn't be Forsberg going the other way. But I'm no GM.


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02-14-2013, 01:46 PM
  #941
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Go suggest this to Colorado fans and see what they say..

You are clearly only thinking about it from a Caps POV.

Colorado is not looking to PAY ROR. Why would they take on Laich's contract?? They are a budget strapped team. They want cheap young players.

Johansson is a roster player not a prospect. They want a TOP prospect from all accounts (and that included Bob McKenzie so don't try to refute it)...this READS as one of Forsberg, Kuznetsov and maybe Wilson if CO values him as a "top" prospect.

EDIT: Love the "2nd" being thrown in there...the venerable 2nd round pick is an absolute staple of every HF proposal.
Colorado is not a budget strapped team. They are a team whose management is extremely committed to having their young players go through a mega lowbally 2nd contract phase. That's how they got such steals on Duchene and Johnson. They paid Jones and Parenteau 4 million as UFAs even though neither of them is half the player Duchene, O'Reilly and Johnson is. They have no problem paying older players (even though they're smart about it).

I think Johansson and a mid round 1st would be of interest if they can't sign him, possibly Johansson and Laich with a million held back as well.

I'd be open to something around Forsberg without much added and definitely something around Wilson. Forsberg doesn't really project much higher than O'Reilly even with everything going right.

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02-14-2013, 01:49 PM
  #942
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
He was offered 7M over 2 years and 17M over 5 years (buying 1 UFA year).

From an Avs poster who claims to know the player (and has been mod approved), O'Reilly has an issue with Avalanche upper management. I would guess that it's a combination of many things. Keep in mind that he was reported to be close to signing with the Avs in the summer, and something derailed the negotiations. It wasn't like he was holding out all along.
I'd be willing to bet he feels he's gonna be pigeonholed as a 3C just because of the pedigree of the other 2 guys. Which he'd probably be fine with if he got an extra mil on top. If they trade Stastny I could see him taking Duchene's deal the same day.

I feel like we could get him for 5x4.25 and wouldn't regret it for a day.

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02-14-2013, 01:50 PM
  #943
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The appeal of a prospect is untapped potential. It's easy to make the case the Johansson is still developing. Why wouldn't they want a "prospect" who's proven he can play in the NHL and can contribute now?
Well lets be real here...I do think MJ has some potential. But he is currently in the press box for a cellar dwelling team. His value isn't exactly at an all time high right now.

Colorado is said to want a roster player and a TOP prospect. This is what Dreger and McKenzie seem to think (at least McKenzie..the other guy may have been Button or someone else on NHL network)

They are a budget strapped team so I don't see them taking on a $3 or $4 million salary.

Again..put yourself in Colorado's shoes. There will be teams would would blow the offers we can make out of the water.

If we want to be in contention on the ROR sweepstakes it would have to include one of Forsberg, Kuznetsov and MAYBE Wilson.

Would you be ready to start with that? I wouldn't

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02-14-2013, 01:52 PM
  #944
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I think they would consider Johansson a more valuable piece than most "top prospects" who haven't played an NHL game yet.

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02-14-2013, 01:53 PM
  #945
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Well lets be real here...I do think MJ has some potential. But he is currently in the press box for a cellar dwelling team. His value isn't exactly at an all time high right now.

Colorado is said to want a roster player and a TOP prospect. This is what Dreger and McKenzie seem to think (at least McKenzie..the other guy may have been Button or someone else on NHL network)

They are a budget strapped team so I don't see them taking on a $3 or $4 million salary.

Again..put yourself in Colorado's shoes. There will be teams would would blow the offers we can make out of the water.

If we want to be in contention on the ROR sweepstakes it would have to include one of Forsberg, Kuznetsov and MAYBE Wilson.

Would you be ready to start with that? I wouldn't
Just curious, what do you think Forsberg projects as?

O'Reilly is a 55 point center with absolutely phenomenal defensive abilities at 21, but apparently he has nowhere to go but down.

It's obviously not something you start with, but if I was offered O'Reilly straight up for Forsberg with no negotiations possible I'd absolutely think about it and probably take it.

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02-14-2013, 01:54 PM
  #946
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Colorado is not a budget strapped team.
Their current payroll is about 53 million which is 4th lowest in the league right BELOW the NY Islanders.

Everything I've seen about them suggests that they are financially strapped. Do you have evidence to prove otherwise?

If you are willing to start with Forsberg I'm sure they would listen. Lets say they take MJ and Forsberg for him and we sign him for $4 mil.

Essentially that would leave us very little room to sign Ribeiro. Even if we DID sign Ribeiro we wouldn't be able to address the winger and D needs this team has.

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02-14-2013, 01:56 PM
  #947
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Just curious, what do you think Forsberg projects as?

O'Reilly is a 55 point center with absolutely phenomenal defensive abilities at 21, but apparently he has nowhere to go but down.

It's obviously not something you start with, but if I was offered O'Reilly straight up for Forsberg with no negotiations possible I'd absolutely think about it and probably take it.
Not sure but I want to find out! Last I checked Forsberg was tearing up the SEL. There was a reason he was the #3 ranked prospect in the draft and we are very fortunate he fell to us.

Also he is a winger. A top 6 winger. We need wingers more than we need centers.

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02-14-2013, 02:00 PM
  #948
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Their current payroll is about 53 million which is 4th lowest in the league right BELOW the NY Islanders.

Everything I've seen about them suggests that they are financially strapped. Do you have evidence to prove otherwise?

If you are willing to start with Forsberg I'm sure they would listen. Lets say they take MJ and Forsberg for him and we sign him for $4 mil.

Essentially that would leave us very little room to sign Ribeiro. Even if we DID sign Ribeiro we wouldn't be able to address the winger and D needs this team has.
I don't see them going after Thomas style gimmicks like Islanders have, or passing up on players more than most teams. I have seen them be ridiculously anal about 2nd contracts though.

I don't think it would take MJ and Forsberg, especially if he holds out the whole season.

Here's a fun fact. Hamrlik, Poti, Schultz, Laich, Ward, Brouwer, Chimera and Erskine combine for 23.5 million in salary. There is zero bona fide top 6 and zero bona fide top 4 players from that group. Bleed it down to Erskine and one of Laich OR Brouwer OR Ward and we can sign anyone we ****ing want.

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02-14-2013, 02:02 PM
  #949
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So if you are trading MAJO and Forsberg for ROR, it's pretty much MAJO and Varly for ROR and a 2nd rounder. I know what my North American bias is saying.

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02-14-2013, 02:03 PM
  #950
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Not sure but I want to find out! Last I checked Forsberg was tearing up the SEL. There was a reason he was the #3 ranked prospect in the draft and we are very fortunate he fell to us.

Also he is a winger. A top 6 winger. We need wingers more than we need centers.
I see him as a 35g 75p player if he absolutely hits his peak, realistically 30g 65p Franzen/Cole style winger.

As jolly as Ribeiro has been in his 13 games here we still need a defensively excellent all situations center. Every team does, but teams that don't have a single one really really do. At worst stick him at wing like Sharks do with Pavelski.

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