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*ALL* Luongo Talk (News/Speculation/Rumors/Proposals)

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:11 PM
  #451
Lucbourdon
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https://twitter.com/strombone1/statu...47675467603968

He is still something else

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01-29-2013, 02:12 PM
  #452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Pretty sure it's tough to guage a guy after such a small sample size.
It never is too early on hf, don't you remember Fabian Brunnstrom? That guy is going to have a long career...

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01-29-2013, 02:12 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by Wizeman View Post
Luongo is currently 13th in GAA and 16th in SV %

that about as middle of the road as you can get. Average, but solid goaltending.
How about you watch the game, he was solid in the 2nd game, and was by far our only reason we got a point against the kings.

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01-29-2013, 02:14 PM
  #454
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It never is too early on hf, don't you remember Fabian Brunnstrom? That guy is going to have a long career...
LOL...Marleau is going to have 96 goals this season!!!!!!

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01-29-2013, 02:18 PM
  #455
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
LOL...Marleau is going to have 96 goals this season!!!!!!
That would be a record!

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:23 PM
  #456
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I guess we will wait and see. But once again here we have mindless value speculation. Zero insight or sources.
It's not mindless speculation it's very much based on looking at the situation and the rules in play for all the teams in the league and looking at what makes sense. It's very much based on reason and logic, very mindful. At this stage we know sources are worthless, we've heard from every side and angle and none of them come forth with anything of value. One source says the Canucks want to much the other says nobody is offering what they want, since there has been no deal they're not telling us anything we dont already know.

So what do we know? Well for starters nobody is desperate to get Luongo, at least not desperate enough to offer up what it would take so far. We know that Luongo's value is depreciating, as the cap goes down and his age goes up it gets harder to justify giving up a lot for him. We know that he has been a good goaltender and is likely to remain one for a few seasons at least but the problem is he's signed well past the point where it's a given he's worth that contract. We know it's hard to trade big contracts in this league especially for older players. We know that drop in the cap next year is going to make it hard for teams to take on a big contract when many top teams are going to have to make some cuts. Of course the bright side is the compliance buyouts do leave the possibility of teams getting out from long term big contracts that might prevent such a deal from happening.

All this means is there's not a lot of interest around the league, or serious interest at least, i'm sure there are plenty of bargain basement shoppers kicking the tires but not nearly as many interested in seriously haggling over price. There's unlikely to be teams engaging in a bidding war to drive the price up, more likely they attempt to lowball and drive the price down since it's much easier to walk away and talk again when the pressure to move him grows.

Unless some team gets desperate and believe he's the final piece, and I dont see that team out there because teams that could use him need a bunch of other pieces to turn their teams around as well, I think it leads to a low sale price next off summer.

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:43 PM
  #457
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What's with all the people judging the canucks goalies on their statistics after 6 games? Judging from the comments, it is clear that most of you have not even watched the games.

I suppose we can also conclude 6 games in that Phil Kessel has completely lost his scoring touch and Zach Kassian will be a perennial 50 goal scorer!

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:46 PM
  #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
LOL...Marleau is going to have 96 goals this season!!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
That would be a record!
Only by 4 though.

Gretzky was amazing.

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:49 PM
  #459
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Originally Posted by CpatainCanuck View Post
What's with all the people judging the canucks goalies on their statistics after 6 games? Judging from the comments, it is clear that most of you have not even watched the games.

I suppose we can also conclude 6 games in that Phil Kessel has completely lost his scoring touch and Zach Kassian will be a perennial 50 goal scorer!
Well, I don't know about the first two assumptions, but the third is pretty bang on

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01-29-2013, 02:54 PM
  #460
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
It's not mindless speculation it's very much based on looking at the situation and the rules in play for all the teams in the league and looking at what makes sense. It's very much based on reason and logic, very mindful. At this stage we know sources are worthless, we've heard from every side and angle and none of them come forth with anything of value. One source says the Canucks want to much the other says nobody is offering what they want, since there has been no deal they're not telling us anything we dont already know.

So what do we know? Well for starters nobody is desperate to get Luongo, at least not desperate enough to offer up what it would take so far. We know that Luongo's value is depreciating, as the cap goes down and his age goes up it gets harder to justify giving up a lot for him. We know that he has been a good goaltender and is likely to remain one for a few seasons at least but the problem is he's signed well past the point where it's a given he's worth that contract. We know it's hard to trade big contracts in this league especially for older players. We know that drop in the cap next year is going to make it hard for teams to take on a big contract when many top teams are going to have to make some cuts. Of course the bright side is the compliance buyouts do leave the possibility of teams getting out from long term big contracts that might prevent such a deal from happening.

All this means is there's not a lot of interest around the league, or serious interest at least, i'm sure there are plenty of bargain basement shoppers kicking the tires but not nearly as many interested in seriously haggling over price. There's unlikely to be teams engaging in a bidding war to drive the price up, more likely they attempt to lowball and drive the price down since it's much easier to walk away and talk again when the pressure to move him grows.

Unless some team gets desperate and believe he's the final piece, and I dont see that team out there because teams that could use him need a bunch of other pieces to turn their teams around as well, I think it leads to a low sale price next off summer.
What you said here is a matter of opinion.

First off until after the trade deadline I don't see Luongo's value depreciating, but rather appreciating because most likely there will be more teams in the playoff hunt this year due to the shortened length.

Secondly Luongo's contract is long, but has a rather low cap hit. This means with the cap decreasing next year he is in fact more affordable. The length is a concern, but realistically by the time 5.3 mil cap hit becomes expensive based on his play the cap should be increasing.

If we estimate 4 more years of very good play, his cap hit should be considered a discount. After those years his cap hit might be looked as high based on play. But lets understand this better. Instead of using hard number to determine what is a good cap hit, we should use % of overall cap as an indicator of a good deal. For example 5.3 million under 70 mil cap is cheaper then 5.3 under 64.3 cap. So this year Luongo's contract is a better deal. But we estimated 4 years of very good play still makes his 5.3 a bargain. So after 4 years we need to estimate upper limit of cap. If we use a 5% growth rate, 4 years from 64.3 we could estimate between 75-78 million. Under a 64.3 cap Luongo's contract uses approximately 8.2% of upper limit space. Under a cap of 76.5(avg between 75 and 78) 6.9% of upper limit cap. This is a 1.3% differece, if we calculate 1.3% of 64.3 it would be about 0.836. This translates into 5.3-0.836= 4.464. So proportionately Luongo's cap hit in 4 years starting next year if cap did not change from 64.3, Luongo's cap hit would 4.464. And as time continues to run this cap hit would continue to shrink proportionately to growth. This seems like a relatively low cap charge now and into the future for a #1 goalie. At the time Luongo retires there might be some cap recapture, but it depends on when Luongo retires, also Vancouver will be taking on 6+ million of the cap recapture minimizing risk to traded team. There are potential options to eliminate this recapture through LITR or buyout strategies. We will need to wait and see, considering a new CBA could in the works by that time and if there is another lockout then the years remaining in the recapture could be wiped out.

So I hope this explanation helps explain why in fact Luongo's contract is not very expensive in terms of cap hit.

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Old
01-29-2013, 02:57 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
If Luongo had to be traded, I'd do it. But at this point I'd much rather trade Schneider.
Aye. We would receive a better offer and Luongo is far from washed up, even if that belies HF's opinion.

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01-29-2013, 03:22 PM
  #462
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Eddie Lack - hip surgery.

Out 6 months.

Looks like any deal would require a backup returning to Vancouver.

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Old
01-29-2013, 03:41 PM
  #463
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With all the speculation about Stephen Weiss in Florida being on the way out, I don't see how this doesn't match up. Vancouver wants a roster player who can help down the middle since Kesler is injuries(Weiss) and Florida goalies have been dreadful so far. It's one of those deals that just makes too much sense not to happen. I don't know what the other parts will be, but I think Luongo ends up in Florida for Weiss.

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Old
01-29-2013, 03:52 PM
  #464
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With all the speculation about Stephen Weiss in Florida being on the way out, I don't see how this doesn't match up. Vancouver wants a roster player who can help down the middle since Kesler is injuries(Weiss) and Florida goalies have been dreadful so far. It's one of those deals that just makes too much sense not to happen. I don't know what the other parts will be, but I think Luongo ends up in Florida for Weiss.
Problem is the longer time goes on the less Canucks need a high quality center, because Kesler is on his way back from injury. Not sure it's a great idea playing Weiss as a 3rd line center. Weiss also has a NMC. If Kesler is back in 3 weeks, that is about 10 games. Weiss as 2nd line center for only 10 games? Trade with Florida is really hard to predict because of so many potential packages made around players, prospects, and salary.

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01-29-2013, 03:53 PM
  #465
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Well, I don't know about the first two assumptions, but the third is pretty bang on
Maybe in a 48 game season, but in 82 games, at 4 goals/5 games that's over 65 goals. No need to sell the Kassassin short.

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01-29-2013, 03:54 PM
  #466
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Can Weiss play wing?

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Old
01-29-2013, 03:55 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Problem is the longer time goes on the less Canucks need a high quality center, because Kesler is on his way back from injury. Not sure it's a great idea playing Weiss as a 3rd line center. Weiss also has a NMC. If Kesler is back in 3 weeks, that is about 10 games. Weiss as 2nd line center for only 10 games? Trade with Florida is really hard to predict because of so many potential packages made around players, prospects, and salary.
Maybe Weiss wouldn't mind being a 3rd line center instead of sitting in the press box like he is now? Weiss makes 4.1 and Luongo makes 5.3. They don't make that much of a difference. Also the Canucks are a potential cup contender, I really don't see why Weiss wouldn't want to go there. It would be a great 1-2-3 down the middle for the Canucks, wouldn't see why that would be a problem.

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01-29-2013, 03:55 PM
  #468
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What you said here is a matter of opinion.

First off until after the trade deadline I don't see Luongo's value depreciating, but rather appreciating because most likely there will be more teams in the playoff hunt this year due to the shortened length.

Secondly Luongo's contract is long, but has a rather low cap hit. This means with the cap decreasing next year he is in fact more affordable. The length is a concern, but realistically by the time 5.3 mil cap hit becomes expensive based on his play the cap should be increasing.

<snipped the guesswork>

So I hope this explanation helps explain why in fact Luongo's contract is not very expensive in terms of cap hit.

So the question then is why hasnt he been traded yet? If he is as valuable as you claim there should be multiple teams lining up to trade for him and desperate enough to give up the pieces that would make a deal possible but that hasnt happened yet. It didnt happen all last summer while he was on the block and it hasnt happened since the lockout was resolved. If there was even one team willing to give up the significant pieces it would take a deal should have already happened but it hasnt.

The evidence so far suggests that the market just isnt there for Luongo and the last real chance to get much for him will be at the trade deadline and that will be a difficult proposition. Teams trade for rentals at the deadline they dont tend to trade for long term commitment.

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01-29-2013, 03:57 PM
  #469
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Can Weiss play wing?
I think Versteeg would be a better fit because he has played center and wing.

Versteeg
Shore or Petrovick
1st or 2nd (depending on where Florida is in standings when deal goes down, maybe conditional)

For

Luongo

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01-29-2013, 03:59 PM
  #470
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
So the question then is why hasnt he been traded yet? If he is as valuable as you claim there should be multiple teams lining up to trade for him and desperate enough to give up the pieces that would make a deal possible but that hasnt happened yet. It didnt happen all last summer while he was on the block and it hasnt happened since the lockout was resolved. If there was even one team willing to give up the significant pieces it would take a deal should have already happened but it hasnt.

The evidence so far suggests that the market just isnt there for Luongo and the last real chance to get much for him will be at the trade deadline and that will be a difficult proposition. Teams trade for rentals at the deadline they dont tend to trade for long term commitment.
To me it sounds like pieces have been offered, but Canucks do not want to take salary that can play in their lineup. And if you want to call my calculations guess work, fair enough, but at least there is reasoning rather then just pure opinion speculation.

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01-29-2013, 04:03 PM
  #471
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I think Versteeg would be a better fit because he has played center and wing.

Versteeg
Shore or Petrovick
1st or 2nd (depending on where Florida is in standings when deal goes down, maybe conditional)

For

Luongo
I admit, I laughed.

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01-29-2013, 04:08 PM
  #472
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I admit, I laughed.
I did too at your insight

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01-29-2013, 04:09 PM
  #473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
I think Versteeg would be a better fit because he has played center and wing.

Versteeg
Shore or Petrovick
1st or 2nd (depending on where Florida is in standings when deal goes down, maybe conditional)

For

Luongo
That's a huge return. I don't see Florida giving up anything near that.

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Old
01-29-2013, 04:16 PM
  #474
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Just end this already...

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Old
01-29-2013, 04:17 PM
  #475
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That's a huge return. I don't see Florida giving up anything near that.
It's not that big especially if it is only a 2nd. Versteeg is 2nd/3rd line player. Shore or Petrovick are good prospects but not no where near what some would consider top prospects.

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