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Are you happy with Dubnyk in net now and in the future?

View Poll Results: are you happy with dubnyk in net?
yes 78 26.44%
no 81 27.46%
will give him one more year 68 23.05%
too early to tell, he is sill developing 48 16.27%
Oilers need a backup who can play more games to give him a break 20 6.78%
Voters: 295. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
02-05-2013, 07:31 PM
  #226
oilphan
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Do any of the advanced stat guys keep track of weak goals? It would be interesting to see some sort of analysis that takes these into account.

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02-05-2013, 07:35 PM
  #227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
Do any of the advanced stat guys keep track of weak goals? It would be interesting to see some sort of analysis that takes these into account.
No question, he still needs to get that out of his game. But overall, I'm quite pleased. I'm more concerned about the lack of run support and the continuance of some bone-headed defensive play.

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02-05-2013, 07:39 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
Do any of the advanced stat guys keep track of weak goals? It would be interesting to see some sort of analysis that takes these into account.
Given that the idea of "bad goals" tends to be entirely subjective from person to person - aside from letting in shots taken at center ice.

It's unlikely

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02-05-2013, 09:50 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Tarus View Post
Given that the idea of "bad goals" tends to be entirely subjective from person to person - aside from letting in shots taken at center ice.

It's unlikely
Exactly, some say the goal that went in off Hall's shin pads last night was a "bad goal". On average, a solid starting goalie is going to let in a shot on every 12-15 shots. Dubnyk let in 3 on 40 last night which basically falls right into that margin. And to put the game on Dubnyk last night would be silly. If the play was in the other end a little more often, noone would even be talking about this right now. Every goal scored last night were on sustained pressure in our end.

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02-05-2013, 10:39 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
Funny how many people are blind to Dubnyk and Hemsky's inadequacies. I think it is because we struggled so much over the past few years, people are quite satisfied with mediocrity.

He stops two brutal goals and we win 2-1 in regulation. You are lying to yourself to believe otherwise.

Unless the guy learns to stop those bad goals, he will never be a legitimate starter that can help us to a playoff run. Since he has been doing it since his junior days in Kamloops, I have no illusions that he will ever figure it out. He will be a good backup when we get a better goalie to be our #1.
Anyone who's expecting 39 saves in a 40 shot game is crazy. Also, I don't buy into this "bad goal" theory. Yes, a bad goal can be damaging to a team's psyche - but I still take a goal who averages 1 bad and 1 good goal each game over one who averages 3 good goals. There gets to be a point where damaged psyche is just an excuse - when a goalie is putting up good stats, the team has to win games, and arguing it's the goalie's fault because he's letting in weak goals is just a load of brown bananas.

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02-05-2013, 11:13 PM
  #231
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Those that can't see Dubnyk has been solid and the BEST Oiler this season so far are on crack.

Stats to back up the obvious:

Guess which NHL team has given up the most shots per game in the entire NHL so far this season? Two guesses... one begins with Edmonton... the other ends with Oilers.

They have given up a startling 34.4 shots per game while only putting 27.4 per game on opposing goalies. A difference of 7 shots per game.

The team has also blocked another 148 shots so far... 6th most in the NHL. Add in the fact that the Oilers have the 5th highest number of giveaways so far and it paints a pretty clear picture that Dubnyk is facing a hell of a lot of opposing pressure.

That's a lot of time that opponents have been spending in the Oilers end and a lot of extra rubber Dubnyk has faced.

A somewhat amazing stat so far is that Dubnyk has a 93.2% save pct on the PK so far... while facing the most shots against on the PK in the NHL... allowing just 5 goals on 68 shots. That's a VERY strong stat and Dubnyk is EASILY the main reason so far why the Oilers have the #5 PK in the NHL so far.

Dubby has a 92.1% save pct while facing the 2nd most shots at even strength.

Honestly if he didn't give up a few bad goals along the way we'd be talking Vezina trophy for the guy. As it is he's been a solid #1 goalie and definitely NOT a problem so far for the Oilers.

How many bad periods has Dubnyk actually played beyond that 1 period versus the Sharks?

Sure he's let in a few soft goals here and there but he's also made numerous very good saves as well and I think by the above stats and simply watching him play and using an unbiased eye... he's been doing a solid job in net for the Oilers.

I honestly was somewhat skeptical of Dubnyk as well and this was why I wanted him to get a lot of work this season to see if he could be a true #1 under a heavy workload. IMO he's proving so far that he can fill that role and no argument can be made that he's not getting a full, high pressure workload as well.

I'd basically give Dubnyk a 9 out of 10 rating so far this season... and I can't think of a more important player on the Oilers so far.

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02-05-2013, 11:33 PM
  #232
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really surprised at the poll results. for seeing the most rubber in the league I think he has proven to be a number 1. at the very least should have your respect

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02-06-2013, 04:16 AM
  #233
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Imagine what DD's numbers would be like if the Oilers could cut the giveaways down by 1/3, or better, and our defence actually could nullify other teams rushes. Its not all on DD. I said it before, and I will say it again, he has done a better job than most goalies the Oilers have had in the last 15 years, and, as good as the best goalies if you consider Rollie and Garon the best the Oilers have had in those last 15 seasons.

What makes DD better, is that Rollie only really showed up for the post season, he was very regular that season they went to the cup, and the next season, he was terrible, hower losing some key Dmen didn't help that. Garon was about the same thing. DD played very well down the stretch last season, taking over #1, and he hasn't dropped the ball at this season. I like what I see so far, and I think he can get even better.

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02-06-2013, 07:58 AM
  #234
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Originally Posted by titsuple View Post
really surprised at the poll results. for seeing the most rubber in the league I think he has proven to be a number 1. at the very least should have your respect
Exactly my thoughts.

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02-06-2013, 09:10 AM
  #235
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Originally Posted by titsuple View Post
really surprised at the poll results. for seeing the most rubber in the league I think he has proven to be a number 1. at the very least should have your respect
I think he's played great to this point. He has my respect.

I have my doubts that he can be good enough on a night to night basis to make up for his tendency to give up weak goals.

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02-06-2013, 09:35 AM
  #236
joestevens29
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Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
Do any of the advanced stat guys keep track of weak goals? It would be interesting to see some sort of analysis that takes these into account.
Staples might do something like that, not sure.

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02-06-2013, 10:19 AM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
Funny how many people are blind to Dubnyk and Hemsky's inadequacies. I think it is because we struggled so much over the past few years, people are quite satisfied with mediocrity.

He stops two brutal goals and we win 2-1 in regulation. You are lying to yourself to believe otherwise.

Unless the guy learns to stop those bad goals, he will never be a legitimate starter that can help us to a playoff run. Since he has been doing it since his junior days in Kamloops, I have no illusions that he will ever figure it out. He will be a good backup when we get a better goalie to be our #1.
This guy sucks eh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsA7FOCTios

We got other problems to worry about right now and Dubnyk is not one of them

Edit: please help with video

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02-06-2013, 11:32 AM
  #238
Gord
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Those that can't see Dubnyk has been solid and the BEST Oiler this season so far are on crack.


A somewhat amazing stat so far is that Dubnyk has a 93.2% save pct on the PK so far... while facing the most shots against on the PK in the NHL... allowing just 5 goals on 68 shots. That's a VERY strong stat and Dubnyk is EASILY the main reason so far why the Oilers have the #5 PK in the NHL so far.

Dubby has a 92.1% save pct while facing the 2nd most shots at even strength.

Honestly if he didn't give up a few bad goals along the way we'd be talking Vezina trophy for the guy. As it is he's been a solid #1 goalie and definitely NOT a problem so far for the Oilers.

Sure he's let in a few soft goals here and there but he's also made numerous very good saves as well and I think by the above stats and simply watching him play and using an unbiased eye... he's been doing a solid job in net for the Oilers.

I'd basically give Dubnyk a 9 out of 10 rating so far this season... and I can't think of a more important player on the Oilers so far.
depends what you're looking for in your number one goalie, long term.
He's proving himself to be a good goaltender in this league, probably a servicable #1 guy. your word sums it up perfectly. solid.
but I suppose many of us want a goalie who doesn't let in so many "weak" goals and want someone who can elevate his play, especially with the concerns on defense.
we don't want to be happy with someone who is middle of the pack and solid, but someone who can be expected to and relied upon to play at an even higher level.

I know All Star goalies are hard to find, but I'm kind of sad we're getting so excited to have a good goalie who has some solid play. shows how low our expectations have gotten.
a lot of it probably from the same people who would be fine with another lottery pick this year.

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02-06-2013, 11:38 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Gord View Post
depends what you're looking for in your number one goalie, long term.
He's proving himself to be a good goaltender in this league, probably a servicable #1 guy. your word sums it up perfectly. solid.
but I suppose many of us want a goalie who doesn't let in so many "weak" goals and want someone who can elevate his play, especially with the concerns on defense.
we don't want to be happy with someone who is middle of the pack and solid, but someone who can be expected to and relied upon to play at an even higher level.

I know All Star goalies are hard to find, but I'm kind of sad we're getting so excited to have a good goalie who has some solid play. shows how low our expectations have gotten.
a lot of it probably from the same people who would be fine with another lottery pick this year.

Interestingly enough, I saw Grant Fuhr's entire career with the Oilers back in the 80's and if you wanted to see a guy that gave up bad goals, he may have been the poster boy. But he also had the luxury of a team that could score in bushels and make everyone forget. And Fuhr is now in the HOF. Not saying Dubnyk will ever drink from that rarified air, but let's put this in perspective. This team is barely scoring at all, can't win a faceoff to save their lives, and spends most of the game in their own end which puts immense pressure on the goaltender.

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02-06-2013, 11:41 AM
  #240
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Surprised there are so many "No" votes. Lets take this poll again after a shutout.
lets see what happens after he had two back to back bad games

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02-06-2013, 11:48 AM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Interestingly enough, I saw Grant Fuhr's entire career with the Oilers back in the 80's and if you wanted to see a guy that gave up bad goals, he may have been the poster boy. But he also had the luxury of a team that could score in bushels and make everyone forget. And Fuhr is now in the HOF. Not saying Dubnyk will ever drink from that rarified air, but let's put this in perspective. This team is barely scoring at all, can't win a faceoff to save their lives, and spends most of the game in their own end which puts immense pressure on the goaltender.
that's fair, perhaps I can get into pessimistic views and lose sight of the big picture to a certain extent.
There are positives to his play this year compared to goaltending the Oilers have received over the last 5 years.
I think DD needs to build a resume of big game saving saves that steal points for the team.
Rightly or wrongly, I never get the feeling that when the heat is on, Dubnyk will come through. I feel he's going to let in that tying goal or the game winning goal.
the Vancouver game is a good example. Didn't you get the feeling that Vancouver was going to come back and tie the game at two?
(I know it doesn't help that an Oiler forward seldom seems to get that goal that puts the game away. also using vancouver as an example)

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02-06-2013, 12:08 PM
  #242
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This guy sucks eh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsA7FOCTios

We got other problems to worry about right now and Dubnyk is not one of them

Edit: please help with video
Dubnyk is the guy who is driving his car in treacherous winter conditions and sees a collision happening right in front of him. He makes some skillful moves and narrowly avoids being part of the carnage - coming out unscathed.

A couple of blocks away there is no traffic. He decides to fiddle with the radio, not paying attention to the road and slams into a tree.

Either way, the car is wrecked. Dubnyk is not the answer in goal.

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02-06-2013, 12:12 PM
  #243
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Dubnyk is the guy who is driving his car in treacherous winter conditions and sees a collision happening right in front of him. He makes some skillful moves and narrowly avoids being part of the carnage - coming out unscathed.

A couple of blocks away there is no traffic. He decides to fiddle with the radio, not paying attention to the road and slams into a tree.

Either way, the car is wrecked. Dubnyk is not the answer in goal.

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02-06-2013, 12:13 PM
  #244
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I'm surprised. He's top ten in stats, but apparently that's probably due to him just playing hot, and he'll come back down to earth.

He's not the reason the Oilers are losing, far from.

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02-06-2013, 12:34 PM
  #245
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Dub was out right horrible in the first SJ game and the Calgary game. This poll was starting right around then.

I know I voted no but after 9 games in would change my tune and put yes right now.

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02-06-2013, 01:52 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by Gord View Post
I think DD needs to build a resume of big game saving saves that steal points for the team.
Rightly or wrongly, I never get the feeling that when the heat is on, Dubnyk will come through. I feel he's going to let in that tying goal or the game winning goal.
Did you watch the second SJ game? Dubnyk was THE only reason the Oilers stole a point in that game. SJ was easily the better team but Dubnyk held them in it long enough to get at least a point out of what could have been a lopsided game. He made numerous excellent saves to hold them in it.

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02-06-2013, 02:55 PM
  #247
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I'm surprised. He's top ten in stats, but apparently that's probably due to him just playing hot, and he'll come back down to earth.

He's not the reason the Oilers are losing, far from.
Yup, apparently that playing hot thing has been going on since February of last year. It hasn't been on him in a while, it's the defense in front of him

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02-06-2013, 05:04 PM
  #248
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I dont care if dub lets in a softy every game if he makes a save the nobody else would make each game as well.

That must be what's happening then... Or his numbers would be terrible, rather than STELLAR!

You can't tell me that the Oilers give up more frequent, but less quality shots than the rest of the league.

And ill tell you this, it is easier to learn how to stop giving up softies then it is to learn to save the shots that no one else can stop.

I dont care how it happens, but if he stops 920 out of 1000 shots, he is doing an amazing job!

For the record, i think people are seeing what they want to see when it comes to softies. There have not been many imo.

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02-06-2013, 06:07 PM
  #249
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Some enlightening stats (at least I think so) through the 1st 11 Oilers games so far:

Shots+attempted shots blocked+missed shots:

11 Detroit 61 Edmonton 49 -12
10 Dallas 64 Edmonton 51 -13
9 Vancouver 73 Edmonton 48 -25
8 Colorado 64 Edmonton 53 -11
7 San Jose 76 Edmonton 47 -29
6 Phoenix 61 Edmonton 50 -11
5 Colorado 64 Edmonton 54 -10
4 Calgary 55 Edmonton 38 -17
3 Los Angeles 65 Edmonton 68 +3
2 San Jose 51 Edmonton 47 -4
1 Vancouver 61 Edmonton 54 -7


Opponent total: 695 Edmonton total: 559 -136

Differential: 24.3%


In only one game did the Oilers have more offensive zone events than their opponents... vs LA when they had 3 more than the Kings.

I think that 24.3% differential is a fairly good indicator of the pressure opponents are applying in the Oilers zone and the extra work Dubnyk is having to do. He's doing very well on a team that isn't great defensively in front of him.

To say that Dubnyk hasn't been very solid so far... and I'd actually raise that up a notch to GREAT so far would be doing him a disservice at this point.

It's once again a slanted ice surface in most Oilers games and he's managing to keep them in there and competitive in almost every game.


Last edited by nexttothemoon: 02-09-2013 at 04:40 PM. Reason: edit: updated after the Dallas game
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Old
02-06-2013, 08:05 PM
  #250
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Interestingly enough, I saw Grant Fuhr's entire career with the Oilers back in the 80's and if you wanted to see a guy that gave up bad goals, he may have been the poster boy. But he also had the luxury of a team that could score in bushels and make everyone forget. And Fuhr is now in the HOF. Not saying Dubnyk will ever drink from that rarified air, but let's put this in perspective. This team is barely scoring at all, can't win a faceoff to save their lives, and spends most of the game in their own end which puts immense pressure on the goaltender.
Yes, Fuhr let in softies as well. The difference was Fuhr would let in a couple when the team was up three or four and he wasn't in the zone.

Dubnyk's softies have come at much more critical times. The tying goal in the most recent Vancouver game was soft when that one save might have won the game.

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