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Old
04-16-2013, 09:35 AM
  #801
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Originally Posted by Gudbranson4Prez View Post
As much as I want MacKinnon...

Campbell-Jones
Kulikov-Gudbranson

Is an awesome top 4... with Matheson, Petrovic, Robak, Brennan behind..
And we could turn into a Nashville like organization that can never score goals and has too much money invested in our defense.

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04-16-2013, 09:38 AM
  #802
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Young d-man take forever to have an impact and develop. plus they're very hard to project from juniors to the NHL. Look at all the top d-men picks for the last 20 years and compare them to the forwards taken nearby. Taking Jones with a top 3 pick will be a mistake.

And even if he becomes a #1 d-man it wont be for a few years. I'd much rather have another Huberdeau than another Guds/Kulikov/Bouwmeester. Have we really not learned our lesson with taking Bouw over Nash?
You can't really do that comparsion imo... Doughty was picked high, so was Pietroangelo etc. Panthers have been drafting horribly for the last 10-15 years, have any of our draft picks even turned out into a superstar? you could argue jovo back in '96 playoffs and his vancouver years, eventually jokinen but he fell off quite hard as soon as he left.

florida have just not managed to draft any superstars but i do think that not picking jones at #1 would be dumb. I don't think florida have 4 clear cut top4 d-men. Gudbranson/Kulikov/Matheson and Jones would be one of the absolute best top 2 pairings in the league. Petrovic+Brennan/Robak (i dont know exact right/left shooters so i might be bit off) would be a good 3rd pairing...

However, if Jones is not on the table I'll gladly pick niuschkin or MacKinnon, don't like drouin

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And we could turn into a Nashville like organization that can never score goals and has too much money invested in our defense.
sure, but the difference is that florida do have enough scoring in its organization to compensate for it. They'll probably end up like chicago having to trade off a lot of players but i dont know, i kinda like having a good D with mediocre scoring over a high scoring mediocre D/G

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04-16-2013, 09:44 AM
  #803
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
Young d-man take forever to have an impact and develop. plus they're very hard to project from juniors to the NHL. Look at all the top d-men picks for the last 20 years and compare them to the forwards taken nearby. Taking Jones with a top 3 pick will be a mistake.

And even if he becomes a #1 d-man it wont be for a few years. I'd much rather have another Huberdeau than another Guds/Kulikov/Bouwmeester. Have we really not learned our lesson with taking Bouw over Nash?
I don't disagree that it'd be amazing to have MacKinnon to play with Hubs... All I'm saying is that it seems like 90% of the hockey world thinks Seth Jones is going 1, and for good reason.. You cannot compare him to any of those defenseman, none of them have the hockey IQ Seth Jones has.. He's the complete package, whether it takes longer to develop then the other forwards or not, this is a guy you win with.

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04-16-2013, 09:46 AM
  #804
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And we could turn into a Nashville like organization that can never score goals and has too much money invested in our defense.
If they had won an extra game or 2 in the playoffs, everybody would be trying to build like Nashville.. As soon as they lose Suter, maybe the best dman in the league, they are back down to the bottom of the league.

Compared to Tampa... The complete opposite - a team with all the offense in the world, completely develop, fighting with us for the 1 pick.

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04-16-2013, 09:47 AM
  #805
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Originally Posted by dej View Post
You can't really do that comparsion imo... Doughty was picked high, so was Pietroangelo etc. Panthers have been drafting horribly for the last 10-15 years, have any of our draft picks even turned out into a superstar? you could argue jovo back in '96 playoffs and his vancouver years, eventually jokinen but he fell off quite hard as soon as he left.

florida have just not managed to draft any superstars but i do think that not picking jones at #1 would be dumb. I don't think florida have 4 clear cut top4 d-men. Gudbranson/Kulikov/Matheson and Jones would be one of the absolute best top 2 pairings in the league. Petrovic+Brennan/Robak (i dont know exact right/left shooters so i might be bit off) would be a good 3rd pairing...

However, if Jones is not on the table I'll gladly pick niuschkin or MacKinnon, don't like drouin



sure, but the difference is that florida do have enough scoring in its organization to compensate for it. They'll probably end up like chicago having to trade off a lot of players but i dont know, i kinda like having a good D with mediocre scoring over a high scoring mediocre D/G
Of course you can make the comparison. The fact is you can't project d-men as well as you can project forwards from juniors to the NHL. It's a much harder position to play at the NHL level, skills that translate well at the Junior level don't always translate well to the NHL, and it takes a few years to really see what you have with a d-man. There is much more risk with d-men than there are with forwards at the same part of the draft.

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04-16-2013, 09:49 AM
  #806
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Originally Posted by Gudbranson4Prez View Post
I don't disagree that it'd be amazing to have MacKinnon to play with Hubs... All I'm saying is that it seems like 90% of the hockey world thinks Seth Jones is going 1, and for good reason.. You cannot compare him to any of those defenseman, none of them have the hockey IQ Seth Jones has.. He's the complete package, whether it takes longer to develop then the other forwards or not, this is a guy you win with.
They say this every year about top d-man who have #1 potential.

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04-16-2013, 09:52 AM
  #807
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
They say this every year about top d-man who have #1 potential.
I've been on the MacKinnon/Drouin bandwagon all season, but if we get the 1 pick and get Jones - We will have the best young defense in the league.

The only players with the type of Hockey IQ Jones has that have been up there are Doughty and Pietrangelo..

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04-16-2013, 09:55 AM
  #808
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Originally Posted by Gudbranson4Prez View Post
If they had won an extra game or 2 in the playoffs, everybody would be trying to build like Nashville.. As soon as they lose Suter, maybe the best dman in the league, they are back down to the bottom of the league.

Compared to Tampa... The complete opposite - a team with all the offense in the world, completely develop, fighting with us for the 1 pick.
Well it's not an either or. We have a solid defensive core, we look to have *great goaltending* but we lack more than one legit first line forward, and definitely lack a #1 center. I would argue that a true #1 center is the most important position but I'm not going off on that tangent. I'm pretty confident in Gudbranson and Kulikov. If Guds gets to play with a better partner I think he can really take a huge step next season plus he's going to have plenty of time in the offseason to put on some weight and become a physical force. He's improved this year but with no training camp and the shoulder injury he didn't progress as much as he could have under normal circumstances.

I'm pretty happy with what we have on D and in the pipeline. I expect Kulikov and Gudbranson to improve a lot and based on teams that do well you need to get lucky with a guy who you didn't expect to become as good as he has. Karlsson in Ottawa is an extreme example. They didn't see a Norris winner. Duncan Keith was something like 19 on HF rankings behind top draft pick Cam Barker who was something like 1, 2, or 3. We're going to have to get lucky, Matheson may be that guy (?)

Also, we can play good team defense and be hard to score against. You don't need top d-men like Jones to be a team that plays well defensively and doesn't give up a lot of goals.

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04-16-2013, 09:55 AM
  #809
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
And we could turn into a Nashville like organization that can never score goals and has too much money invested in our defense.
God forbid we turn into a team that has made the playoffs 7 times in the past decade...

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04-16-2013, 10:00 AM
  #810
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
Well it's not an either or. We have a solid defensive core, we look to have *great goaltending* but we lack more than one legit first line forward, and definitely lack a #1 center. I would argue that a true #1 center is the most important position but I'm not going off on that tangent. I'm pretty confident in Gudbranson and Kulikov. If Guds gets to play with a better partner I think he can really take a huge step next season plus he's going to have plenty of time in the offseason to put on some weight and become a physical force. He's improved this year but with no training camp and the shoulder injury he didn't progress as much as he could have under normal circumstances.

I'm pretty happy with what we have on D and in the pipeline. I expect Kulikov and Gudbranson to improve a lot and based on teams that do well you need to get lucky with a guy who you didn't expect to become as good as he has. Karlsson in Ottawa is an extreme example. They didn't see a Norris winner. Duncan Keith was something like 19 on HF rankings behind top draft pick Cam Barker who was something like 1, 2, or 3. We're going to have to get lucky, Matheson may be that guy (?)

Also, we can play good team defense and be hard to score against. You don't need top d-men like Jones to be a team that plays well defensively and doesn't give up a lot of goals.
All I know is whoever we pick with our 1st pick, I'm gonna trust Tallon and be happy.

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04-16-2013, 10:01 AM
  #811
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God forbid we turn into a team that has made the playoffs 7 times in the past decade...
Their model is flawed and we face similar budget constraints. They never won a cup or made it to the finals. They've lost in the first round 5 of the 7 times, losing in the second round the two other times. Tallon's goal isn't to make it to the playoffs. He wants to compete for a cup. They also got lucky with second round pick Shea Weber who turned into an elite and arguably best d-man in the game.


Last edited by RainingRats: 04-16-2013 at 10:06 AM.
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04-16-2013, 10:05 AM
  #812
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Of course you can make the comparison. The fact is you can't project d-men as well as you can project forwards from juniors to the NHL. It's a much harder position to play at the NHL level, skills that translate well at the Junior level don't always translate well to the NHL, and it takes a few years to really see what you have with a d-man. There is much more risk with d-men than there are with forwards at the same part of the draft.
yeah, of course, but there's very few Seth Jones. I believe DT will pick whoever he feels is the best, he have proven over and over again that he's very good at scouting talent and pushing the right buttons in interviews to see the character of the guys. I'm 100% positive to whatever DT does, just like some other here have said.

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04-16-2013, 10:05 AM
  #813
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Their model is flawed and we face similar budget constraints. They never won a cup or made it to the finals. Tallon's goal isn't to make it to the playoffs. He wants to compete for a cup. They also got lucky with second round pick Shea Weber who turned into an elite d-man.
They were a few a offensive players away from being contenders, if there ownership was not so financially tight they would have brought some offense in. I would not call them a flawed model.

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04-16-2013, 10:07 AM
  #814
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They were a few a offensive players away from being contenders, if there ownership was not so financially tight they would have brought some offense in. I would not call them a flawed model.
We're financially tight too.

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04-16-2013, 10:08 AM
  #815
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yeah, of course, but there's very few Seth Jones. I believe DT will pick whoever he feels is the best, he have proven over and over again that he's very good at scouting talent and pushing the right buttons in interviews to see the character of the guys. I'm 100% positive to whatever DT does, just like some other here have said.
My whole philosophy is that guys who become who Seth Jones is projected to become (a legit/elite #1 dman) are not ever as obvious as scouts historically seem to believe.

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04-16-2013, 10:15 AM
  #816
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My whole philosophy is that guys who become who Seth Jones is projected to become (a legit/elite #1 dman) are not ever as obvious as scouts historically seem to believe.
this is a very deep draft class with 4-5 really really strong player who arguably could have gone #1 overall (maybe not barkov) in a weak draft and russian factor was excluded

If we can get Jones, I'm happy. If we can't, MacK will be a great pick too.

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04-16-2013, 10:28 AM
  #817
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
Young d-man take forever to have an impact and develop. plus they're very hard to project from juniors to the NHL. Look at all the top d-men picks for the last 20 years and compare them to the forwards taken nearby. Taking Jones with a top 3 pick will be a mistake.

And even if he becomes a #1 d-man it wont be for a few years. I'd much rather have another Huberdeau than another Guds/Kulikov/Bouwmeester. Have we really not learned our lesson with taking Bouw over Nash?
10000x THIS!

I have never been a fan of drafting defensemen in the first round. The risk/reward value just isn't there. It takes at least 4 years (~300 games) of NHL experience for a defenseman to reach his stride. That gives you a player with 'potential' until 3 years before they are a UFA. Couple that with the relative ease of getting quality, already mature, defenseman via trade/free-agency and there is ZERO reason to pick a defenseman in the top 10.

Examples (Top 6 teams - Current Rosters - more than 20 games played):

Chicago
Keith - Drafted 11 years ago - 2nd round - 54th overall
Seabrook - Drafted 10 years ago - 14th overall
Hjalmarsson - Drafted 8 years ago - 4th Round
Oduya - trade from Jets for 2 & 3 rnd picks.
Brookbank - UFA
Leddy - Trade from Minny

Pittsburgh
Orpik - Drafted 13 years ago - 18th overall
Martin - UFA
Engelland - UFA
Niskanen - Trade from Dallas
Letang - Drafted 8 years ago - 3rd round
Despris - Drafted 7 years ago - 30th overall

Anaheim
Souray - UFA
Lydman - UFA
Allen - UFA
Beauchemin - Trade w/Toronto
Lovejoy - Trade w/Pitt
Sbisa - Trade w/Philly

Montreal
Bouillon - Waivers
Markov - Drafted 15 years ago - 162 overall
Gorges - Trade with SJ
Emelin - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Subban - Drafted 6 years ago - 2nd round

Boston
Chara - UFA
Ference - Trade w/Calgary
Seidenberg - Trade w/FLA
Boychuk - Trade w/Colorado
McQuaid - Trade w/Columbus
Hamilton - Drafted 2 years ago - 9th overall

Vancouver
Hamhuis - UFA
Bieksa - Drafted 12 years ago - 5th round
Ballard - Trade w/FLA
Edler - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Garrison - (We know what happened here - UFA)
Tanev - Undrafted FA

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04-16-2013, 10:43 AM
  #818
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Originally Posted by Gudbranson4Prez View Post
As much as I want MacKinnon...

Campbell-Jones
Kulikov-Gudbranson

Is an awesome top 4... with Matheson, Petrovic, Robak, Brennan behind..
I agree.

If we end up with the first pick, I think we'll get criticized whichever way we go. If we pick Jones, then that means missing out on MacKinnon and Drouin (2 guys with elite potential, perfect to play on a line with Huberdeau for the near future). Picking Jones could make our d-core look great for many years. Unless one of Gud, Matheson or Jones busts, our d-core will be solid. Kulikov is established. So, our d-core could be Jones, Gud, Matheson and Kulikov pretty much. Petrovic and Robak need time to develop.

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04-16-2013, 10:53 AM
  #819
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10000x THIS!

I have never been a fan of drafting defensemen in the first round. The risk/reward value just isn't there. It takes at least 4 years (~300 games) of NHL experience for a defenseman to reach his stride. That gives you a player with 'potential' until 3 years before they are a UFA. Couple that with the relative ease of getting quality, already mature, defenseman via trade/free-agency and there is ZERO reason to pick a defenseman in the top 10.

Examples (Top 6 teams - Current Rosters - more than 20 games played):

Chicago
Keith - Drafted 11 years ago - 2nd round - 54th overall
Seabrook - Drafted 10 years ago - 14th overall
Hjalmarsson - Drafted 8 years ago - 4th Round
Oduya - trade from Jets for 2 & 3 rnd picks.
Brookbank - UFA
Leddy - Trade from Minny

Pittsburgh
Orpik - Drafted 13 years ago - 18th overall
Martin - UFA
Engelland - UFA
Niskanen - Trade from Dallas
Letang - Drafted 8 years ago - 3rd round
Despris - Drafted 7 years ago - 30th overall

Anaheim
Souray - UFA
Lydman - UFA
Allen - UFA
Beauchemin - Trade w/Toronto
Lovejoy - Trade w/Pitt
Sbisa - Trade w/Philly

Montreal
Bouillon - Waivers
Markov - Drafted 15 years ago - 162 overall
Gorges - Trade with SJ
Emelin - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Subban - Drafted 6 years ago - 2nd round

Boston
Chara - UFA
Ference - Trade w/Calgary
Seidenberg - Trade w/FLA
Boychuk - Trade w/Colorado
McQuaid - Trade w/Columbus
Hamilton - Drafted 2 years ago - 9th overall

Vancouver
Hamhuis - UFA
Bieksa - Drafted 12 years ago - 5th round
Ballard - Trade w/FLA
Edler - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Garrison - (We know what happened here - UFA)
Tanev - Undrafted FA
good post. hard to argue with the facts you presented.

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04-16-2013, 11:01 AM
  #820
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just a random thought, if we were to draft mackinnon would anyone be in favor of potentially trading bjugstad if it meant getting a top winger? i was thinking if bjugstad+ for bobby ryan could work for ana.

Huberdeau-MacKinnon-Ryan
Fleischmann-Matthias-Versteeg
Bergenehim-Goc-Kopecky

that 1st line would be perfect, that 3rd line would be perfect, and we'd still have matthias to center flash and versteeg. i dont know how this works out financially but i was just brain storming.

i think even if we end up with the 1st pick we still take mac, maybe if we're picking 2nd and jones is still available then we'd probably take him over drouin but personally id want either mac or drouin over jones, but if we did select jones at 2 in that case then i wont be upset, but i do think mac is #1 on our depth chart.

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04-16-2013, 11:12 AM
  #821
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Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
just a random thought, if we were to draft mackinnon would anyone be in favor of potentially trading bjugstad if it meant getting a top winger? i was thinking if bjugstad+ for bobby ryan could work for ana.

Huberdeau-MacKinnon-Ryan
Fleischmann-Matthias-Versteeg
Bergenehim-Goc-Kopecky

that 1st line would be perfect, that 3rd line would be perfect, and we'd still have matthias to center flash and versteeg. i dont know how this works out financially but i was just brain storming.

i think even if we end up with the 1st pick we still take mac, maybe if we're picking 2nd and jones is still available then we'd probably take him over drouin but personally id want either mac or drouin over jones, but if we did select jones at 2 in that case then i wont be upset, but i do think mac is #1 on our depth chart.
If Bjugstad+ roster player would have worked for Luongo then it should probably work for Bobby Ryan. I don't see DT trading his picks. Plus, we shouldn't give up on Bjugstad yet. His size is too important and rare to have in such a young, talented center.

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04-16-2013, 11:26 AM
  #822
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Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
just a random thought, if we were to draft mackinnon would anyone be in favor of potentially trading bjugstad if it meant getting a top winger? i was thinking if bjugstad+ for bobby ryan could work for ana.

Huberdeau-MacKinnon-Ryan
Fleischmann-Matthias-Versteeg
Bergenehim-Goc-Kopecky

that 1st line would be perfect, that 3rd line would be perfect, and we'd still have matthias to center flash and versteeg. i dont know how this works out financially but i was just brain storming.

i think even if we end up with the 1st pick we still take mac, maybe if we're picking 2nd and jones is still available then we'd probably take him over drouin but personally id want either mac or drouin over jones, but if we did select jones at 2 in that case then i wont be upset, but i do think mac is #1 on our depth chart.
Ryan's talent is undeniable and exactly what we need but he's a UFA in two more years iirc. I don't see Tallon making the move at the cost of Bjugstad.

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04-16-2013, 11:31 AM
  #823
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Of course you can make the comparison. The fact is you can't project d-men as well as you can project forwards from juniors to the NHL. It's a much harder position to play at the NHL level, skills that translate well at the Junior level don't always translate well to the NHL, and it takes a few years to really see what you have with a d-man. There is much more risk with d-men than there are with forwards at the same part of the draft.
I don't always agree with you, but when I do, something must be right.

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04-16-2013, 11:44 AM
  #824
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Take an awesome forward prospect in the 1st round with our highest pick, and pick a dman in the 2nd round with pretty good potential. We've been the whole "lets build from the goal out and have a real good blue line" type of philosophy for a long time and it never worked. I also don't buy the "next pronger" comparisons with Jones either. Sure, until he proves that he is anything close to Pronger in the NHL, I am not buying that at all.

Agree with RR. As usual. lol. We can play great defense with an excellent d-core and still lose 2-1 games. One of our most crippling problems at the end of our day is not having a dynamic offense. Defense does a lot in the game, but our defense without Jones will be fine, and wouldn't it be such an amazing concept if our forwards actually forechecked and backchecked? That would make a world of difference too. Draft a forward.

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04-16-2013, 11:45 AM
  #825
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Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
just a random thought, if we were to draft mackinnon would anyone be in favor of potentially trading bjugstad if it meant getting a top winger? i was thinking if bjugstad+ for bobby ryan could work for ana.
Ryan is Flyers bound after that current contract of his runs out, maybe even sooner if Holmgren is his usual self.

What Flyers have: his local team that was his fave as a kid and a GM that will pretty much give him anything he asks when it comes to salary.

What Florida has: almost the same things as Anaheim.

Seriously, a player that publicly voiced his unhappiness in Anaheim last season? Do not want.

6-7 years of Bjugs >> 2 years of Ryan

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