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Old
04-16-2013, 11:50 AM
  #826
Haj
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Its never bad to have a surplus of good defensemen.

For one thing, none of our defense prospects are the complete package. Seth Jones looks like he can do it all, score, move the puck and play physical.

I don't think our defensemen are as good as we think they are.

Kulikov gets injured a lot.
Campbell is good, but he is aging.
Gudrandson is a good physical defensemen, but he'll never score a ton of points.
Kuba is useless
Weaver and Strachan are a 3rd paring guy
Caruso was hurt, so we don't know what he can do.

Robak looks to be a 2nd paring guy.
Petrovic needs more seasoning in the AHL.
Matheson is still in college.

Drafting for need isn't the way to go. You can't project needs 3 years down the road. IMO Tallon should take the BPA, the player that has a chance to become dominant at his position. If he takes Jones over Mackinnon or Mackinnon over Jones as long as he's taking the guy he feels is going to be the better of the two.

Using the past history of first round defensmen not working out is intellectually disingenuous. Forwards and goaltenders are just as likely to not work out. Its an inexact science all the way across the board.

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04-16-2013, 11:59 AM
  #827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madhatter73 View Post
10000x THIS!

I have never been a fan of drafting defensemen in the first round. The risk/reward value just isn't there. It takes at least 4 years (~300 games) of NHL experience for a defenseman to reach his stride. That gives you a player with 'potential' until 3 years before they are a UFA. Couple that with the relative ease of getting quality, already mature, defenseman via trade/free-agency and there is ZERO reason to pick a defenseman in the top 10.

Examples (Top 6 teams - Current Rosters - more than 20 games played):

Chicago
Keith - Drafted 11 years ago - 2nd round - 54th overall
Seabrook - Drafted 10 years ago - 14th overall
Hjalmarsson - Drafted 8 years ago - 4th Round
Oduya - trade from Jets for 2 & 3 rnd picks.
Brookbank - UFA
Leddy - Trade from Minny

Pittsburgh
Orpik - Drafted 13 years ago - 18th overall
Martin - UFA
Engelland - UFA
Niskanen - Trade from Dallas
Letang - Drafted 8 years ago - 3rd round
Despris - Drafted 7 years ago - 30th overall

Anaheim
Souray - UFA
Lydman - UFA
Allen - UFA
Beauchemin - Trade w/Toronto
Lovejoy - Trade w/Pitt
Sbisa - Trade w/Philly

Montreal
Bouillon - Waivers
Markov - Drafted 15 years ago - 162 overall
Gorges - Trade with SJ
Emelin - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Subban - Drafted 6 years ago - 2nd round

Boston
Chara - UFA
Ference - Trade w/Calgary
Seidenberg - Trade w/FLA
Boychuk - Trade w/Colorado
McQuaid - Trade w/Columbus
Hamilton - Drafted 2 years ago - 9th overall

Vancouver
Hamhuis - UFA
Bieksa - Drafted 12 years ago - 5th round
Ballard - Trade w/FLA
Edler - Drafted 9 years ago - 3rd round
Garrison - (We know what happened here - UFA)
Tanev - Undrafted FA
Jeeze, solid post. I'd be interested in seeing what assets it took for those teams to acquire those dmen, but the essential point holds true: lottery picks should be spent on elite offensive talent, so long as the GM understands the importance of committing other resources to build his d unit. It shouldn't be forgotten that Tampa tried to complement their offense by drafting Hedman

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Old
04-16-2013, 12:03 PM
  #828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haj View Post
Its never bad to have a surplus of good defensemen.

For one thing, none of our defense prospects are the complete package. Seth Jones looks like he can do it all, score, move the puck and play physical.

I don't think our defensemen are as good as we think they are.

Kulikov gets injured a lot.
Campbell is good, but he is aging.
Gudrandson is a good physical defensemen, but he'll never score a ton of points.
Kuba is useless
Weaver and Strachan are a 3rd paring guy
Caruso was hurt, so we don't know what he can do.

Robak looks to be a 2nd paring guy.
Petrovic needs more seasoning in the AHL.
Matheson is still in college.

Drafting for need isn't the way to go. You can't project needs 3 years down the road. IMO Tallon should take the BPA, the player that has a chance to become dominant at his position. If he takes Jones over Mackinnon or Mackinnon over Jones as long as he's taking the guy he feels is going to be the better of the two.
I agree with this. Drafting for need is erroneous given what is now may not be in 3/4 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haj View Post
Using the past history of first round defensmen not working out is intellectually disingenuous. Forwards and goaltenders are just as likely to not work out. Its an inexact science all the way across the board.
This however, i disagree with to an extent. The draft of course does not have an optimal strategy. However it does have patterns and trends that do correlate to certain strategies. Now the definition of better/impactful is not definitive or exact, yet it remains reasonably to suggest Forwards drafted very high have a better subjective and objective return than highly drafted defenseman. The transition is generally easier to project. The first couple of Forwards taken have much more success on average than the first couple of defenseman taken.

These trends of course should not intervene with actual scouting and subjective opinions on any individual player, however, they are certainly something to think about.

Another point perhaps less touched on is the current NHL style. The league is more defensive and stifling than ever. Clogging zones, blocking shots etc are the norm. A competent well coached defense can be very difficult to play against. You'll need to excel as a team in all facets of the game (D, O and Goaltending) but in the modern day NHL it is absolutely easier to cultivate a well coached competent defense core than it is to create dangerous competent offensive units.

Again, this concept shouldn't obstruct any individual analysis of any available player in the draft. Since however we are perpetually engaging in this rather useless debate, it is worth noting.

In the end, there is no corrct model for NHL success. Success requires a wide range of attributes, variables and luck and blindly following any model won't likely lead you to where you want to be.

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04-16-2013, 12:20 PM
  #829
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My point is that, even if we draft Jones, he will not be truly impactful for at least 4 years. In that time there will be a TON of readily available defensemen that could be acquired by trading an offensive asset and/or picks.

It's a huge gamble on a payout that we may or may not see after spending 4 years building him up to NHL level.

Gudbranson was picked 3rd overall (2010). He's finally starting to turn the corner this year but it will be his fourth year that he starts to show it.

Hedman (Picked in top 10 in 2009) has started showing solid play beginning this year.

You have to go back to 2008 to find impactful defensemen picked up in the top 10 that are actually notable on their team. Doughty and Shenn.

Doughty had his breakout year in year 4. Shenn this year.

History shows we get a useful 2-3 years of our 7 year contract with a draftee where they actually play at a high NHL level. Considering defencemen get hurt often, rushing them in is a bad idea.

I'm sorry, but I would rather see a player that could help us in the next 2-3 years and move them if we need to than to gamble on the chance that someone could be an elite defenseman if we wait it out.

Especially when there are plenty of avenues to pick up ready-made defensemen in this league.

Same reason it's a bad idea to buy a new car. Let someone else eat the depreciation.

Note: I am speaking of top 10 picks... not the first round...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haj View Post
Its never bad to have a surplus of good defensemen.

For one thing, none of our defense prospects are the complete package. Seth Jones looks like he can do it all, score, move the puck and play physical.

I don't think our defensemen are as good as we think they are.

Kulikov gets injured a lot.
Campbell is good, but he is aging.
Gudrandson is a good physical defensemen, but he'll never score a ton of points.
Kuba is useless
Weaver and Strachan are a 3rd paring guy
Caruso was hurt, so we don't know what he can do.

Robak looks to be a 2nd paring guy.
Petrovic needs more seasoning in the AHL.
Matheson is still in college.

Drafting for need isn't the way to go. You can't project needs 3 years down the road. IMO Tallon should take the BPA, the player that has a chance to become dominant at his position. If he takes Jones over Mackinnon or Mackinnon over Jones as long as he's taking the guy he feels is going to be the better of the two.

Using the past history of first round defensmen not working out is intellectually disingenuous. Forwards and goaltenders are just as likely to not work out. Its an inexact science all the way across the board.

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04-16-2013, 12:34 PM
  #830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madhatter73 View Post

Gudbranson was picked 3rd overall (2010). He's finally starting to turn the corner this year but it will be his fourth year that he starts to show it.
Gudbranson isn't anywhere near as gifted with the puck as Jones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Madhatter73 View Post
Hedman (Picked in top 10 in 2009) has started showing solid play beginning this year.
Hedman was a solid top pairing defenseman in his third year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Madhatter73 View Post
You have to go back to 2008 to find impactful defensemen picked up in the top 10 that are actually notable on their team. Doughty and Shenn.

Doughty had his breakout year in year 4. Shenn this year.
Doughty was an elite defenseman at 19, who for a variety of reasons had a dip. Schenn isn't close to being an elite defenseman.

You convienantly left out Pietrangelo, Brodin and OEL. I don't neccessairly disagree with your argument, but boy did you decide to cherrypick data.

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Old
04-16-2013, 01:07 PM
  #831
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I think the bottom line is that if you think Seth Jones has a chance to be like Alexander Pietrangelo, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang...he gets taken 1st overall. Defensemen like that are pretty rare. I consider Karlsson to be a generational talent, no blueliner has scored 80 pts in a season since Brian Leetch.

All offense starts with puck retrieval, then a good breakout pass / defensmen beating a forechecker. Look at the Flyers, very talented forwards but aside from Timmonen they don't have another PMD. I believe Seth Jones ultimate value will be judged by his ability to contribute in those areas. He should also be developed as a prospect with that in mind.

I don't know if he's the best player in the draft, but I think looking at past draft position history to judge how a prospect will turn out is not a sound idea.

Just trade up and take both Mackinnon and Jones. Problem solved.

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Old
04-16-2013, 01:23 PM
  #832
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There's way more data to suggest that a d-man drafted with the top 2 picks won't be as good as a forward. I went back over 10 yrs and looked at the list of guys that went in the top 5. You can easily find almost every situation where a forward selected is better than the d-man selected.

Honestly, if you had the chance at selecting Doughty (#2 overall pick in 08) or Stamkos (#1 overall), you would take Doughty really? Most GMs would take Stamkos without a doubt. Or how about taking Hedman (#2) or Tavares (#1), who would you take? If you dont take Tavares, I say you're a liar.

Anyway, there's also historically a lot of data that suggests that drafting a d-man in the 2nd round actually can turn into an impact player as well. Particularly at the top of the 2nd round, you can get a top 4 d-man fairly consistently. While LA drafted Doughty at #2 in the draft, they were also able to draft Voynov at #32 in that same draft. Carolina drafted Justin Faulk 1 spot after we selected Petrovic in the 2nd round in 2010. There's plenty more examples like this that I can site but really it seems that either if falls on deaf ears or this has already been said numerous times.

This is the perfect draft to take a forward at the top of the draft and a d-man early in the 2nd round. Even if a lot of scouts think Jones is the top ranked player, that doesnt mean he's gonna turn out to be the guy that makes the biggest impact, especially for the Panthers. Too many people focus on the term "BPA" or "need" but we should focus on the word "impact". Honestly, its why the Dolphins have been so bad for so long also, they never draft "impact" players at "impact" positions. The Panthers have a chance with this draft to get an "impact" player with their top pick and most "impact" players are forwards, plain & simple.

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Old
04-16-2013, 01:40 PM
  #833
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If FLA ends up with Jones (either at #1, or perhaps picking after a team like CGY at #2), do you think there would be interest in moving Kulikov for PHI 1st (7th overall or so)?

There would still be at least one high-end forward prospect (Monahan, Lindholm, or Nichushkin) on the board.

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04-16-2013, 01:44 PM
  #834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
If FLA ends up with Jones (either at #1, or perhaps picking after a team like CGY at #2), do you think there would be interest in moving Kulikov for PHI 1st (7th overall or so)?
I dont think they would be looking to deal Kulikov for another pick TBH. If the scenario is they draft Jones and think he's already as good as Kulikov, then making Kulikov available via trade, I think they want an immediate impact player at forward. So from Philly that would mean a guy like Couturier or Schenn would have to be going back to the Panthers IMHO.

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04-16-2013, 02:21 PM
  #835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
I dont think they would be looking to deal Kulikov for another pick TBH. If the scenario is they draft Jones and think he's already as good as Kulikov, then making Kulikov available via trade, I think they want an immediate impact player at forward. So from Philly that would mean a guy like Couturier or Schenn would have to be going back to the Panthers IMHO.
Fair enough.

Schenn isn't likely to be moved without his brother, so I'd discount him. I assumed Couturier would be less appealing than Lindholm or Nichushkin because they have higher offensive upsides, and because FLA already has a big two-way pivot in their system. I'd be open to moving Couturier for Kulikov, but I'm guessing that that isn't a popular position amongst Flyers fans.


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04-16-2013, 02:41 PM
  #836
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I was not making a skill level comparison, but a timetable one. If you think Jones will be top pairing NHL ready his first 2-3 years, you're most likely going to be wrong.

The teams I named are the top 6 in the league right now. None of them have a defensive top 10 draft pick on the roster. It was used to show that, although they are awesome players, they are not the key to success on the ice.

We have a 3rd overall defenseman in Gudbranson that has yet to fully mature. Kulkov was picked 14th overall and is still growing. We have Petrovic, Matheson and Robak also marinating in the minors. We have a great young player in TJ Brennan.

My expectation is that since this is probably (hopefully) the last top 10 pick we will have for quite some time. Since our prospect pool is deeper in defense, our odds of having a player that helps our team long term is drastically increased if we use our top 10 pick for a forward and pick our defensemen lower (or acquire them via trade/ufa).

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04-16-2013, 04:19 PM
  #837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
I dont think they would be looking to deal Kulikov for another pick TBH. If the scenario is they draft Jones and think he's already as good as Kulikov, then making Kulikov available via trade, I think they want an immediate impact player at forward. So from Philly that would mean a guy like Couturier or Schenn would have to be going back to the Panthers IMHO.
If it's a top 7 pick, I can see it as a possibility. Especially because if we had earned a few more points this season, we'd be drafting there anyway. If the Flyers draft around #10 though, I don't see it as a possibility.

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04-16-2013, 09:15 PM
  #838
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There's way more data to suggest that a d-man drafted with the top 2 picks won't be as good as a forward. I went back over 10 yrs and looked at the list of guys that went in the top 5. You can easily find almost every situation where a forward selected is better than the d-man selected.

Honestly, if you had the chance at selecting Doughty (#2 overall pick in 08) or Stamkos (#1 overall), you would take Doughty really? Most GMs would take Stamkos without a doubt. Or how about taking Hedman (#2) or Tavares (#1), who would you take? If you dont take Tavares, I say you're a liar.

Anyway, there's also historically a lot of data that suggests that drafting a d-man in the 2nd round actually can turn into an impact player as well. Particularly at the top of the 2nd round, you can get a top 4 d-man fairly consistently. While LA drafted Doughty at #2 in the draft, they were also able to draft Voynov at #32 in that same draft. Carolina drafted Justin Faulk 1 spot after we selected Petrovic in the 2nd round in 2010. There's plenty more examples like this that I can site but really it seems that either if falls on deaf ears or this has already been said numerous times.

This is the perfect draft to take a forward at the top of the draft and a d-man early in the 2nd round. Even if a lot of scouts think Jones is the top ranked player, that doesnt mean he's gonna turn out to be the guy that makes the biggest impact, especially for the Panthers. Too many people focus on the term "BPA" or "need" but we should focus on the word "impact". Honestly, its why the Dolphins have been so bad for so long also, they never draft "impact" players at "impact" positions. The Panthers have a chance with this draft to get an "impact" player with their top pick and most "impact" players are forwards, plain & simple.
Nice solid post coolburn!

I agree with everything you said and think that adding another top end forward will greatly improve our chances at competing for a cup every year vs. just being a regular in the playoffs. Solid Defensman like you and madhatter said can be had later in the draft or through FA/Trades. High end forwards are tougher to get through FA/trades for us so better to draft them and grow our own. Please draft either Mac or Drouin DT!

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04-17-2013, 12:16 AM
  #839
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Just another okay night for the tank:

Philly wins

Tampa Bay loses in overtime

Florida loses
Carolina loses
Edmonton loses

-ghoste

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04-17-2013, 12:29 AM
  #840
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Hedman (Picked in top 10 in 2009) has started showing solid play beginning this year.

You have to go back to 2008 to find impactful defensemen picked up in the top 10 that are actually notable on their team. Doughty and Shenn.
You have to go back to 2008 to find a defenseman picked up in top 10, who is notable on his team? WTF?
Brodin? Hedman? OEL? All this guys are 1st pairing defensemen on their teams, Hedman and OEL are #1 actually. Heck, OEL is in Norris discussion, Hedman is probably the best Tampa player this year and Brodin is in Calder discussion.

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04-17-2013, 08:57 AM
  #841
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Jones wouldnt be such a terrible choice, but how often do we get the chance to draft a top line center? We have some good center prospects, but none of them scream top line center. Bjugstad is the closest that we have to one, but MacKinnon is a more complete player, and out of the two, is the more likely to become an elite top line center. In my decade plus here at HF, Ive must have read thousands of comments about the team needed a top line center, the team trading for a top line center, the team signing a top line center, etc., but it has never happened. A lot of us has said that in order for us to get that top line center, it would be through the draft, which could happen for us this summer.

Drouin is a great wing prospect, and Jones is a great Dman prospect, but we have to choose MacKinnon, if we are lucky enough to do so. We can add talent around him better than adding talent around a winger, and by choosing Mac, it allows us to spread our top players over two lines. We could have Mac and Huberdeau on one line, with Nick centering Mueller, Howden, and/or whoever else Tallon has in the fold. Mac isnt a generational talent, but he is really, really good, and we are in position to fill a void that has been missing since 93, and really get this team one step closer to something real special.

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04-17-2013, 09:40 AM
  #842
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Jones wouldnt be such a terrible choice, but how often do we get the chance to draft a top line center? We have some good center prospects, but none of them scream top line center. Bjugstad is the closest that we have to one, but MacKinnon is a more complete player, and out of the two, is the more likely to become an elite top line center. In my decade plus here at HF, Ive must have read thousands of comments about the team needed a top line center, the team trading for a top line center, the team signing a top line center, etc., but it has never happened. A lot of us has said that in order for us to get that top line center, it would be through the draft, which could happen for us this summer.

Drouin is a great wing prospect, and Jones is a great Dman prospect, but we have to choose MacKinnon, if we are lucky enough to do so. We can add talent around him better than adding talent around a winger, and by choosing Mac, it allows us to spread our top players over two lines. We could have Mac and Huberdeau on one line, with Nick centering Mueller, Howden, and/or whoever else Tallon has in the fold. Mac isnt a generational talent, but he is really, really good, and we are in position to fill a void that has been missing since 93, and really get this team one step closer to something real special.
100% agree with you, great post

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04-17-2013, 10:05 AM
  #843
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Originally Posted by pb1300 View Post
Jones wouldnt be such a terrible choice, but how often do we get the chance to draft a top line center? We have some good center prospects, but none of them scream top line center. Bjugstad is the closest that we have to one, but MacKinnon is a more complete player, and out of the two, is the more likely to become an elite top line center. In my decade plus here at HF, Ive must have read thousands of comments about the team needed a top line center, the team trading for a top line center, the team signing a top line center, etc., but it has never happened. A lot of us has said that in order for us to get that top line center, it would be through the draft, which could happen for us this summer.

Drouin is a great wing prospect, and Jones is a great Dman prospect, but we have to choose MacKinnon, if we are lucky enough to do so. We can add talent around him better than adding talent around a winger, and by choosing Mac, it allows us to spread our top players over two lines. We could have Mac and Huberdeau on one line, with Nick centering Mueller, Howden, and/or whoever else Tallon has in the fold. Mac isnt a generational talent, but he is really, really good, and we are in position to fill a void that has been missing since 93, and really get this team one step closer to something real special.
This cannot be stated enough. We have done the defense and goaltending thing enough. Let's get some offense. Just because we are the Panthers doesn't mean that we can't have top offensive talent. We've had one top talented forward in our history... one. I'm sick of being on the outside looking in on this.

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04-17-2013, 10:53 AM
  #844
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i dont see jones and mack being so far apart. and we need scoring and top line talent. we have a good nucleus of d-men on this team and on their way up. guddy and kuli are solid players. kulikov in the past few weeks has shown he can be a top line defender. at worst he's a top 4 which is still solid. guddy is an effective and nasty d-men and i think with a solid off-season can be a top 4 next season wether he turns out to be a top pairing will depend on more development.

petrovic outshined gudbranson a few years ago in training camp and i think he's real solid he'll have a chance next year. and robay has shown some promise as well.

matheson is a few years away but looks like he could turn into another solid d-man.

we have campbell for a few more years and brennan can play a 2nd pairing roll until pushed out but is a solid top 6 guy.

other then hubby and bjugstad i don't see much of a top 2 line guy coming up. howden could be that speedy 2nd liner but then again could be a solid checking foward.

eh i want mack. but again if we pick 2nd and mack is off the board i'm fine with jones. i just want scoring.

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04-17-2013, 11:20 AM
  #845
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This cannot be stated enough. We have done the defense and goaltending thing enough. Let's get some offense. Just because we are the Panthers doesn't mean that we can't have top offensive talent. We've had one top talented forward in our history... one. I'm sick of being on the outside looking in on this.
Who does MacK's game most resemble?

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04-17-2013, 11:41 AM
  #846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmericanJedi View Post
Who does MacK's game most resemble?
The comparison that I've heard is Crosby-lite. Plays a similar game but wont be the generational talent Sid is. Keep in mind that MacK is one of the youngest players (if not THE youngest) in the draft too. To me, that means he still has some room to improve on his current abilities.

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04-17-2013, 11:46 AM
  #847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
The comparison that I've heard is Crosby-lite. Plays a similar game but wont be the generational talent Sid is. Keep in mind that MacK is one of the youngest players (if not THE youngest) in the draft too. To me, that means he still has some room to improve on his current abilities.
I've heard comparsions to Jeremy Roenick, however, he's apparently super fast with good hands and stuff. I think he's the offensive super star in this draft rather than drouin

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04-17-2013, 12:59 PM
  #848
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I'm gonna be honest and say that I will be a little disappointed with Jones. Never been a fan of drafting defensemen in the top5.

After taking another defenseman last year, I don't see us taking another. Even if its Jones. If we got #1 and Tallon is certain he can get MacKinnon at #2, then he could flip picks with however drafting #2, and at a solid return too.

MacKinnon or bust!

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04-17-2013, 02:28 PM
  #849
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do we really think DT will draft Jones with our pick if mac is still on the board? Man I hope this tank has not been for nothing we need scoring.

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04-17-2013, 02:34 PM
  #850
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Originally Posted by Panthersfan1989 View Post
do we really think DT will draft Jones with our pick if mac is still on the board? Man I hope this tank has not been for nothing we need scoring.
I wouldn't go that far lol.... Jones is ranked one of the top players in the draft for a reason. By no means would it be a tank for nothing. I would be disappointed if we have a chance to pick Mac and we don't but Jones is also a good player.

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