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Old
04-18-2013, 01:31 PM
  #876
IceManCat
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Originally Posted by KittysGotClaws View Post
We're 12 points behind Buffalo with 6 games left. So one more point for them or lost point for us and we can eliminate them from the tank list. Kind of like a reverse clinching thing lol.

Worst case scenario - 6-0 (44 points), 11th pick (can catch 10 teams, lose another spot via lotto)

Can catch: BUF, PHX, PHI, NJ, EDM, CGY, NSH, TB, CAR, COL

A loss tonight and we can cross off Buffalo and Phoenix.

Buffalo may be off the tank list but Carolina and Nashville have begun to grace us with their presence. Did anyone notice Calgary has jumped all the way up to 6th. A couple wins in a row for us and we might suffer the same fate.

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04-18-2013, 01:42 PM
  #877
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I don't know if anyone here has noticed, but SportsClubStats is now basing teams eliminated from playoff contention into a percentage of getting the first overall pick.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Florida.html

We're right now at 29.8% according to them. If we finish 3-2-1 or worse the rest of the way, we have at least a 60% chance to finish dead last in the NHL.

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04-18-2013, 02:52 PM
  #878
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i doubt we're gonna win many of our remaining 6 games. its down to us, colorado, and carolina, and its probably gonna be us and colorado for the bottom 2 spots. if carolina can win just 1 of their remaining 6 games, then we can win 3 of our 6 games and still not worry, we'd have to win 4 of 6 or get at least 7 points to move above them, and thats if carolina can muster up just 1 win, so we should be fine. and as long as we finish in the bottom 2 thats all i care about because we'd be guaranteed a top-3 pick. so with calgary thankfully pulling away we should be fine. on a side note if colorado and us get the top 2 picks, i hope nashville gets the 3rd, i dont want carolina or tb anywhere near drouin and nashville could really use him (calgary too).

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04-18-2013, 03:42 PM
  #879
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
I was trying to explain that he's not another Bouw. Bouw was soft as butter. Jones is far from it.
I hope you're right. Guds certainly is nothing like Bouw. However, others' point about drafting forwards (especially when you need scoring) is good. We can trade for good defensemen, like we did with Campbell and even before DT with Seidenberg (whom I didn't want to trade but oh we'll), Leopold and the late Salei and Skrastins.... Point being that IMO we can trade for good dmen, and I think Tallon has plenty of vision to do just that.

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04-18-2013, 03:56 PM
  #880
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Originally Posted by KWGoon View Post
I hope you're right. Guds certainly is nothing like Bouw. However, others' point about drafting forwards (especially when you need scoring) is good. We can trade for good defensemen, like we did with Campbell and even before DT with Seidenberg (whom I didn't want to trade but oh we'll), Leopold and the late Salei and Skrastins.... Point being that IMO we can trade for good dmen, and I think Tallon has plenty of vision to do just that.

Bolded: True Warriors - I missed both of them on the team.. especially seidenberg.

I agree, hopefully we can re-piece this team back to function form next season.

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04-18-2013, 04:16 PM
  #881
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
Jones could stand to be more physical, but this is just another case of trying to find any weaknesses possible that happens to top picks every year. He is far from soft as butter.

I was only basing that off of what I've read on here. Personally, I've only seen highlights of him. It's just stuff like this that scare me a bit.


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Old
04-18-2013, 04:51 PM
  #882
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Tank watch is pretty simply. Worst record in the league with 6 games remaining. The probability of jumping many teams is very very unlikely. Winning half our remaining games and we still get a Top 4 pick no matter the other results.

Ain't no fat ladies up here.

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04-18-2013, 05:04 PM
  #883
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Originally Posted by Jeff Shafer View Post
We have needs at both defense and forward, but I can see us taking the best player available, if it's Jones, you take him. If it's MacKinnon you take him.

I personally think we struggle to score goals, and need a offensive player to go with our young group but as Tampa has proven you need defense or scoring the second or third most goals in the league doesn't matter one bit.

I would take Jones, pass on MacKinnon, that would give us a solid core of Jones-Kulikov, Gudbranson-Matheson Petrovic-Robak and Brennan not to mention a veteran or two like Campbell.

Remember, we will hopefully get a healthy Versteeg and may sign Weiss back along with another yr under Huberdeau's belt and Matthias improving offensively speaking we should be in good shape. Bergenheim should be back as well, it's not far fetched to see us taking Jones.
They dont have a goalie who is capable of stealing games. We have that goalie in Jacob Markstrom

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04-18-2013, 05:12 PM
  #884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWGoon View Post
I hope you're right. Guds certainly is nothing like Bouw. However, others' point about drafting forwards (especially when you need scoring) is good. We can trade for good defensemen, like we did with Campbell and even before DT with Seidenberg (whom I didn't want to trade but oh we'll), Leopold and the late Salei and Skrastins.... Point being that IMO we can trade for good dmen, and I think Tallon has plenty of vision to do just that.
I don't really believe in that 'historical evidence' stuff personally. I think you have to judge each prospect individually. How Erik Johnson turned out has nothing to do with how Seth Jones will turn out. It is true that forwards in the top 5 are easier to project than defensemen. But still, that can only be applied generally. There are also more forwards picked in the first round than defensemen. There are more forwards than defensemen, period. Any argument can be shaped to fit one's point using historical data. At the end of the day, scouting is still important.

Seidenberg is a good 2nd pairing guy, but this is not the kind of impact defenseman we are talking about to build our team around. A blueline full of Dennis Seidenbergs is still not going to get you anywhere. Leopold, Salei, and Skrastins are even lower on the totem pole.

That being said, I prefer MacKinnon to Jones because I think MacKinnon is the BPA, but to not take Jones no matter where we draft simply because he's a defenseman is illogical IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boooooth10 View Post
I was only basing that off of what I've read on here. Personally, I've only seen highlights of him. It's just stuff like this that scare me a bit.

But none of Jones' teammates did anything either. Why is he singled out? His critics are only saying stuff like this because he's 6'4" 208 lbs. If he was 6'0" 190 lbs. nobody would be saying anything. He uses his body when he has to, and even sometimes when he doesn't have to. The fact that he doesn't play with reckless abandon shouldn't deter his draft position.

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Old
04-18-2013, 05:15 PM
  #885
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They dont have a goalie who is capable of stealing games. We have that goalie in Jacob Markstrom
But you still have to play solid defense in front of that goalie or you will not win the Cup.

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04-18-2013, 05:45 PM
  #886
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
But you still have to play solid defense in front of that goalie or you will not win the Cup.
Agreed. We should be able to fill that void via FA. It is all about MacKInnon

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04-18-2013, 05:50 PM
  #887
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Would be the ultimate troll if Tallon traded down a few spots and drafted Nurse or Zadorov. The amount of glee i'd get logging onto good ol' HFboards then ... ahhhh.


Btw MR, i agree with you that it should be individually assessed, but Seidenberg is an extremely under-rated player. Integral to any success Boston has had/will have in the post-season. Never the pretty boys who are the playoff warriors.

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:02 PM
  #888
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boothinator View Post
Agreed. We should be able to fill that void via FA. It is all about MacKInnon
That is one route. I'm just saying the idea of drafting Jones at #2 or 3 shouldn't be brushed aside.

Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Would be the ultimate troll if Tallon traded down a few spots and drafted Nurse or Zadorov. The amount of glee i'd get logging onto good ol' HFboards then ... ahhhh.


Btw MR, i agree with you that it should be individually assessed, but Seidenberg is an extremely under-rated player. Integral to any success Boston has had/will have in the post-season. Never the pretty boys who are the playoff warriors.
I'm not insinuating that Seidenberg is not an important piece of Boston's blueline, but a Cup winning team needs at least one top pairing guy, which, Seidenberg isn't. I know Seidenberg is a playoff warrior, that's why I like Gudbranson so much, I think he can be a consistent rock in the playoffs for us, and he fared well in his first audition last year. A SC winner still needs more guns than that though.

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:09 PM
  #889
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I believe Seidenberg was on the top paring with Chara. People tend to over-estimate what a top pairing defenseman actually is. The assumption is that a top pairing defenseman is usually a star defenseman, when in actuality, many solid "#2" or "#3" defenseman aren't really well reknown players with dynamic perceptions. Some people have a definition of a top pairing defenseman that would mean there are like 20 of them league wide.

Of course you are correct about what it takes to win a SC. This is why the "Defense is stupid, take offense!" or "You win cups with defense" posts are pointless. Cup winners are good teams from top to bottom with good/hot goaltending.

I would say that our defensive core has a nice future, but it isn't exactly spectacular. Many ifs and buts.

Lets hope Seth Jones quits hockey to become a baptist, so the debate can no longer rage.

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:19 PM
  #890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I believe Seidenberg was on the top paring with Chara. People tend to over-estimate what a top pairing defenseman actually is. The assumption is that a top pairing defenseman is usually a star defenseman, when in actuality, many solid "#2" or "#3" defenseman aren't really well reknown players with dynamic perceptions. Some people have a definition of a top pairing defenseman that would mean there are like 20 of them league wide.

Of course you are correct about what it takes to win a SC. This is why the "Defense is stupid, take offense!" or "You win cups with defense" posts are pointless. Cup winners are good teams from top to bottom with good/hot goaltending.

I would say that our defensive core has a nice future, but it isn't exactly spectacular. Many ifs and buts.

Lets hope Seth Jones quits hockey to become a baptist, so the debate can no longer rage.
Matt Carle played on the top pairing with Pronger too. Doesn't mean he's a top pairing guy. I think most astute fans can objectively judge what a #2 defenseman is, and the difference between a bottom pair defenseman.

Simple point is, a team isn't going to win a Cup with 6 Dennis Seidenbergs. That's all I was trying to illustrate.

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:30 PM
  #891
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
Matt Carle played on the top pairing with Pronger too. Doesn't mean he's a top pairing guy. I think most astute fans can objectively judge what a #2 defenseman is, and the difference between a bottom pair defenseman.

Simple point is, a team isn't going to win a Cup with 6 Dennis Seidenbergs. That's all I was trying to illustrate.
Seidenberg is #2 on Boston i think. Hedman is #1 in Tampa. Brodin #2 in Minnesota. Fayne is high up on NJD. God knows what abmonination of hurly burly Canadian Calgary has on the back end.
A top pairing defenseman is often defined by his own environment and the variables that surround that. Depends on the style and system he plays in. What makes a player highly leaned on in one system doesn't always translate to a different system. There are very few defenseman league wide who i would say are clear top pairing defenseman in most situations. I get what you're saying, but illusions of the modern day 2nd line winger or 2nd or 3rd defenseman on average teams are quite different to reality.

Of course Boston wouldn't win a cup with 6 Seidenbergs, they wouldn't be able to move the puck out . Would be like putting a microwave in an oven.

Moving on slightly, and to have a different discussion, MR if you were picking in the 10-15 range, who would you personally like? It's interesting to see why may be the late risers this year. Horvat has finished strongly and is projectable if not dynamic, Lazar isn't dynamic but is projectable and safe, Wennberg i think would be a great pick.

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Old
04-18-2013, 07:03 PM
  #892
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
Matt Carle played on the top pairing with Pronger too. Doesn't mean he's a top pairing guy. I think most astute fans can objectively judge what a #2 defenseman is, and the difference between a bottom pair defenseman.

Simple point is, a team isn't going to win a Cup with 6 Dennis Seidenbergs. That's all I was trying to illustrate.
Kuba.

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Old
04-18-2013, 08:57 PM
  #893
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Seidenberg is #2 on Boston i think. Hedman is #1 in Tampa. Brodin #2 in Minnesota. Fayne is high up on NJD. God knows what abmonination of hurly burly Canadian Calgary has on the back end.
A top pairing defenseman is often defined by his own environment and the variables that surround that. Depends on the style and system he plays in. What makes a player highly leaned on in one system doesn't always translate to a different system. There are very few defenseman league wide who i would say are clear top pairing defenseman in most situations. I get what you're saying, but illusions of the modern day 2nd line winger or 2nd or 3rd defenseman on average teams are quite different to reality.

Of course Boston wouldn't win a cup with 6 Seidenbergs, they wouldn't be able to move the puck out . Would be like putting a microwave in an oven.

Moving on slightly, and to have a different discussion, MR if you were picking in the 10-15 range, who would you personally like? It's interesting to see why may be the late risers this year. Horvat has finished strongly and is projectable if not dynamic, Lazar isn't dynamic but is projectable and safe, Wennberg i think would be a great pick.
I think Seidenberg often plays with Chara, but Hamilton is definitely the 2nd best defenseman on the team. Some teams don't have a #2. Some teams don't have a #1. I don't think a top pairing defenseman is defined by his environment. I mean yes, someone is going to have to undoubtedly fill a position on a team, but when you talk about a true #1 or true #2, that is different. I think most teams have at least one true top pairing defenseman.

Boston-Chara, Hamilton
Toronto-Phaneuf
Montreal-Subban, Markov
Ottawa-Karlsson
Buffalo-Myers, Ehrhoff
Florida-Campbell
Carolina-Pitkanen, Faulk
Tampa-Hedman
Washington-Green, Alzner
Winnipeg-Enstrom, Byfuglien
Rangers-Staal, McDonough
Islanders-Streit
Pittsburgh-Letang, Orpik
Philadelphia-Timmonen
Detroit-Kronwall
Chicago-Keith, Seabrook
St. Louis-Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester
Nashville-Weber
Columbus-Johnson
Vancouver-Hamhuis, Bieksa, Garrison
Colorado-Johnson
Calgary-Giordano
Anaheim-Fowler
L.A.-Doughty, Scuderi
S.J.-Boyle, Vlasic, Burns
Phoenix-OEL, Yandle
Dallas-Goligoski

I've always liked Horvat, I would take him between 10-15. I'm a big Lazar fan also, but I just don't think there's enough offense there to justify. I'd take him 15-20 though. I really like Wennberg and would probably take him at 16 or 17. That just illustrates the quality of this draft. The rest of the guys I'd take between 10-15 are Ristolainen, Domi, Erne, Zadorov, and Gauthier.

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04-18-2013, 09:29 PM
  #894
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ultimate tank

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Old
04-18-2013, 10:16 PM
  #895
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Data by sportsclubstats.com

If Panthers stay at 32 - 35 points - 100% chance of last place

if they get 4 points in the last 5 games - 98% last place, 2% 29th

if they get 5 points - 93% last place, 3 % 29th

if they get 6 points - 82% last place - 18% 29th

they would need to get 7 points in 5 games to even have a 5% chance of finishing 28.

Looks like a top 3 pick is a near certainty (finish 29 or 30), with a top 2 pick (finish 30) a high probability.

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04-18-2013, 10:43 PM
  #896
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at least carolina was able to steal an extra point by forcing OT with less than 2min left. they lost in ot but now we can win 2 games, and lose 1 in OT too, and still be guaranteed a top-3 pick. even more separation as long as we dont win 3 games out of our remaining 5 we'll have a top-3 pick

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04-18-2013, 11:01 PM
  #897
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An alright night for the tank:

New Jersey wins

Carolina loses in overtime

Florida loses
Tampa Bay loses

I have to admit, I'm kinda scared for the New Jersey game. However, they beat Philly tonight so perhaps they just roll us up now that they got the 'devil' off their back.

-ghoste

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Old
04-18-2013, 11:34 PM
  #898
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Scott Luce better be get some Winterhawks and Mooseheads hockey in before their seasons end.


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04-18-2013, 11:41 PM
  #899
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Worst case scenario - 5-0 (42 points), 9th pick (can catch 8 teams, lose another spot via lotto)

Can catch: PHI, NJ, EDM, CGY, NSH, TB, CAR, COL

Next loss would put NJ and PHI out of reach.

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04-18-2013, 11:55 PM
  #900
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KittysGotClaws View Post
Worst case scenario - 5-0 (42 points), 9th pick (can catch 8 teams, lose another spot via lotto)

Can catch: PHI, NJ, EDM, CGY, NSH, TB, CAR, COL

Next loss would put NJ and PHI out of reach.
Yuck. Could you imagine if that actually happened? Worst winning streak in franchise history. I've already got Mackinnon in a Panther jersey.

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