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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread II

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Old
01-28-2013, 11:16 PM
  #201
markrander87
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I was kind of hoping you were serious, so we could all laugh at how stupid it is to rank defensemen based off ice time (wish 70s was here reading this ) Oh well.

Niedermayer was a good pick if you really wanted a defenseman.

First last years winner, and now this??

I always felt like I was the only one...

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01-28-2013, 11:17 PM
  #202
TheDevilMadeMe
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Has Chara surpassed Niedermayer by now? At this time last year, I thought Niedermayer and Black Jack Stewart were still ahead of him. Does Chara move ahead of them based on being a 2nd Teamer again last year?

(I'll ignore Eddie Gerard for now because it's too hard a comparison).

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01-28-2013, 11:24 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Has Chara surpassed Niedermayer by now? At this time last year, I thought Niedermayer and Black Jack Stewart were still ahead of him. Does Chara move ahead of them based on being a 2nd Teamer again last year?

(I'll ignore Eddie Gerard for now because it's too hard a comparison).
It's really hard to keep a 6 time post season all-star down...

Hard to say where they all rank, but Chara's consistency is clearly better than many he's compared too, even if he's never really been dominant. Depends what you prefer.

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First last years winner, and now this??

I always felt like I was the only one...
Bret Hedican was the #1 defenceman on a Stanley Cup champion based on ice time.

That says everything we need to know about judging players based on ice time + team success.

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01-28-2013, 11:31 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Bret Hedican was the #1 defenceman on a Stanley Cup champion based on ice time.

That says everything we need to know about judging players based on ice time + team success.
Does Jonathan Cheechoo invalidate goal-scoring leaders?

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01-28-2013, 11:36 PM
  #205
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tsk tsk guys.. for once it wasn't me!

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01-29-2013, 12:03 AM
  #206
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Undisciplined penalties that lead to powerplay goals against are a very bad thing.
As opposed to disciplined penalties?

Ain't you paid attention to the new half season? Bruins can't score on the PP and have yet to allow a PP goal... and given the way their PP has been in the last 2 seasons, they might as well stay on the PK.

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01-29-2013, 12:12 AM
  #207
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BraveCanadian sent me a list for 102

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01-29-2013, 12:13 AM
  #208
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Does Jonathan Cheechoo invalidate goal-scoring leaders?
In a way, yes. Having one goal scoring title means one lucky year with lucky circumstances. Backing up that goal scoring title with some top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes and top 20 finishes makes a career worth remembering.

I guess that's the argument for Chara. Sure, he's never really dominated, but by golly, he's a top 4 defenceman in the NHL. Because he's achieved that mark with consistency.

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01-29-2013, 12:15 AM
  #209
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Does Jonathan Cheechoo invalidate goal-scoring leaders?
Would you have said Cheechoo was the best player on his team because of that? Either way, you're looking at different measures.

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01-29-2013, 12:19 AM
  #210
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It's not really what you guys are talking about, but I think it can be possible to "luck" into a goal scoring or assists title with the right linemates, but not so possible to do so when it comes to the Art Ross race.

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01-29-2013, 12:29 AM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
In a way, yes. Having one goal scoring title means one lucky year with lucky circumstances. Backing up that goal scoring title with some top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes and top 20 finishes makes a career worth remembering.

I guess that's the argument for Chara. Sure, he's never really dominated, but by golly, he's a top 4 defenceman in the NHL. Because he's achieved that mark with consistency.
So why can we apply context to that metric, but not the other?

The fallacy here is TOI is something more than a piece of the puzzle.

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01-29-2013, 12:46 AM
  #212
seventieslord
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I had a choice between Sid Abel and Alex Delvecchio to center Gordie Howe a few years ago and chose Abel. And I'd still choose Abel first
So would I. But I'd still choose Ullman over either.

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Has Hooley Smith risen in every single ATD? He must be on pace to be drafted in the first round around 2020.
Yes. that is 10 straight drafts.

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In the regular season he was #2 in 95, and #1 in 2000, 2003, and 2007 in TOI/G. In the playoffs he was undetermined in 95(probably 2nd), 1st in 2000 by 2 seconds over Stevens(9 seconds ahead in ES), 1st in 2003(3rd in ES), and 3rd in 2007 with Beauchemin(he's not getting picked here) and Pronger logging over 30 minutes and Niedermayer at 29:50.
That's splitting hairs. If it was a matter of 10 seconds or less, please use your eyes and don't be a slave to the numbers. Common sense says he was the #2 in 1995 and 2000, the #1 in 2003 and the #1a/1b in 2007.

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01-29-2013, 12:50 AM
  #213
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TOI has its uses, and I think it can be valuable to look at. It shouldn't be the only thing to look at, and there are a number of caveats you have to look at while using it. If two guys have a similar voting record and balance of perceived offensive/defensive abilities, I believe it can be used as another good metric by which to measure guys. If a guy was more relied upon by teams that performed well defensively than another, I think it certainly says something.

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01-29-2013, 12:53 AM
  #214
seventieslord
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No, Stevens was clearly the #1 on those 3 Devils teams. Just pushing your buttons.
Oh, thank goodness.

I would give him credit as a #1 for 2003 though, if he was considered the MVP...

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I was kind of hoping you were serious, so we could all laugh at how stupid it is to rank defensemen based off ice time (wish 70s was here reading this ) Oh well.
It's actually quite possible to responsibly value ice time among defensemen while at the same time finding Billy's (trolling) comments ridiculous.

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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
First last years winner, and now this??

I always felt like I was the only one...
huh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Bret Hedican was the #1 defenceman on a Stanley Cup champion based on ice time.

That says everything we need to know about judging players based on ice time + team success.
Does it? I think it shows that for one year he caught lightning in a bottle and was just good enough to lead a defense corps that was just good enough to ride the coattails of an excellent offense and a hot goalie. Good for him because he was their best guy. But to have any kind of all-time value he would need to sustain it, and he didn't...

and the correllation between career long icetime/team success and the actual perception of the all-time value of a defenseman is actually extremely high.

Much, much, much, much higher than the correllation between "highest spot ever reached on the goals leaders in a season" and the perception of the all-time value of a forward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nalyd psycho
In a way, yes. Having one goal scoring title means one lucky year with lucky circumstances. Backing up that goal scoring title with some top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes and top 20 finishes makes a career worth remembering.
Right, so you agree.

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01-29-2013, 12:56 AM
  #215
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
TOI has its uses, and I think it can be valuable to look at. It shouldn't be the only thing to look at, and there are a number of caveats you have to look at while using it. If two guys have a similar voting record and balance of perceived offensive/defensive abilities, I believe it can be used as another good metric by which to measure guys. If a guy was more relied upon by teams that performed well defensively than another, I think it certainly says something.
I think it's fair to say that the guy with the most ice time is the #1, the guy with the next most is the #2, and so on, provided the gaps are reasonable enough (i.e. not splitting hairs with 15-20 second gaps or less) and the real life story agrees. Usually that's all congruent. The thing about Stevens and Niedermayer is that when Niedermayer had more TOI, it wasn't very much more, and Stevens was getting possibly the hardest minutes in the NHL, while Nieds was (relatively) sheltered. Ergo, it's not the least bit difficult to conclude Stevens was their #1, probably right through 2002.

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01-29-2013, 01:03 AM
  #216
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
That's splitting hairs. If it was a matter of 10 seconds or less, please use your eyes and don't be a slave to the numbers. Common sense says he was the #2 in 1995 and 2000, the #1 in 2003 and the #1a/1b in 2007.

This is still wrong. 2003 was a 1a/1b situation with Stevens and Niedermayer. That year, the Devils would purposely ice the puck if the other team's top line was out there and Stevens was not (back when you could make a line change after an icing).

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01-29-2013, 01:04 AM
  #217
seventieslord
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wow, I had the 21st most posts in the last ATD thread. Find me the last time that happened. It's a sad, sad day for seventieslandlord.

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01-29-2013, 01:05 AM
  #218
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This is still wrong. 2003 was a 1a/1b situation with Stevens and Niedermayer. That year, the Devils would purposely ice the puck if the other team's top line was out there and Stevens was not (back when you could make a line change after an icing).
I'm just being generous to Niedermayer because he was considered the MVP (IIRC??) - it was a major coming out party for him, wasn't it? I realize it wasn't all that different from 2007 though, TBH

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01-29-2013, 01:07 AM
  #219
TheDevilMadeMe
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I'm just being generous to Niedermayer because he was considered the MVP (IIRC??) - it was a major coming out party for him, wasn't it? I realize it wasn't all that different from 2007 though, TBH
Yeah, Niedermayer was probably the team MVP in 2003 (by a small margin over Brodeur) because of how he played in the last 2 rounds, especially after Stevens was injured. But it was really still a 1A/1B thing in terms of usage.

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01-29-2013, 01:32 AM
  #220
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Halifax selects Doug Bentley, LW.

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01-29-2013, 01:39 AM
  #221
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Doug Bentley was definitely someone I was considering...

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01-29-2013, 01:40 AM
  #222
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Am I alone in my thought that Doug was probably better than Max?

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01-29-2013, 01:47 AM
  #223
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Am I alone in my thought that Doug was probably better than Max?
Considering me interested in that question as well. All too late for me to contribute here, but it will be interesting what has been said by tomorrow and i do have some ideas.

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01-29-2013, 01:51 AM
  #224
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Max is one of the best playoff scorers of all-time, which is why he gets drafted where he does, despite Doug's better all-round game

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01-29-2013, 02:01 AM
  #225
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I'll be around another half hour or so. I'm only a couple picks away, can anyone take a list if my pick doesn't come up by then?

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