0.560 is the new 0.500

[DL44]

Due to the bonus pt that's been handed out with a lot more regularity since the lockout... 0.500 is no longer the pure league "average" which it has traditionally been.

Everyone knows this... but what exactly IS the present era equivalent for 'AVERAGE'?


Here are the numbers.

05-06 - 2741 pts - 91.37 pts/team - 0.557
06-07 - 2741 pts - 91.37 pts/team - 0.557
07-08 - 2732 pts - 91.07 pts/team - 0.555
08-09 - 2742 pts - 91.40 pts/team - 0.557
09-10 - 2761 pts - 92.03 pts/team - 0.561
10-11 - 2757 pts - 91.90 pts/team - 0.560
11-12 - 2760 pts - 92.00 pts/team - 0.561

Overall in the post lockout era = 91.56 pts/team = 0.558
Over the last 3 yrs = 91.98 pts/team = 0.561

So basically a 92 pt pace

A 0.500 peforming team is now a below par performing team in this era...

So for simplicity's sake... consider a 92 pt pace as average.. or 0.560 as average (basically the whole era with a little more weight to the recent 3 yrs yrs of the league..)


What does this mean for the 48 game schedule...

If OT/SO rates remain consistent - which you can see they have been AMAZINGLY consistent over the last 7 seasons - the league average in pts this yr will be around -54 pts.

That should also be the approximate target pt total to be the 8th/9th seed in either conference.


Presently, in the league..
West - 43 gms with 12 gms going into extra time
East - 44 gms with 8 gms going into extra time
Total : 87 games, 20 gms in extra time = 194 pts handed out = 2.23 pts/gm = 0.557 as the present 'average'.
The 'average' has traditionally increased during the year teams and game tighten up, so should end up near that 0.560 pt as per usual.

So there ya go... Consider 0.560 as league average for reference purposes...

Them the facts... use with enthusiasm and care.

EDIT:
We're talking Point Percentage here

[Jaymond Flurrie]

Originally Posted by DL44

Due to the bonus pt that's been handed out with a lot more regularity since the lockout... 0.500 is no longer the pure league "average" which it has traditionally been.

Everyone knows this... but what exactly IS the present era equivalent for 'AVERAGE'?


Here are the numbers.

05-06 - 2741 pts - 91.37 pts/team - 0.557
06-07 - 2741 pts - 91.37 pts/team - 0.557
07-08 - 2732 pts - 91.07 pts/team - 0.555
08-09 - 2742 pts - 91.40 pts/team - 0.557
09-10 - 2761 pts - 92.03 pts/team - 0.561
10-11 - 2757 pts - 91.90 pts/team - 0.560
11-12 - 2760 pts - 92.00 pts/team - 0.561

Overall in the post lockout era = 91.56 pts/team = 0.558
Over the last 3 yrs = 91.98 pts/team = 0.561

So basically a 92 pt pace

A 0.500 peforming team is now a below par performing team in this era...

So for simplicity's sake... consider a 92 pt pace as average.. or 0.560 as average (basically the whole era with a little more weight to the recent 3 yrs yrs of the league..)


What does this mean for the 48 game schedule...

If OT/SO rates remain consistent - which you can see they have been AMAZINGLY consistent over the last 7 seasons - the league average in pts this yr will be around -54 pts.

That should also be the approximate target pt total to be the 8th/9th seed in either conference.


Presently, in the league..
West - 43 gms with 12 gms going into extra time
East - 44 gms with 8 gms going into extra time
Total : 87 games, 20 gms in extra time = 194 pts handed out = 2.23 pts/gm = 0.557 as the present 'average'.
The 'average' has traditionally increased during the year teams and game tighten up, so should end up near that 0.560 pt as per usual.

So there ya go... Consider 0.560 as league average for reference purposes...

Them the facts... use with enthusiasm and care.

I still think .500 is pretty good mark when the .500 is counted the way it actually matters and not with some idiotic "wins-against-losses"-style that is totally secondary in today's NHL.

[DL44]

Originally Posted by Jaymond Flurrie

I still think .500 is pretty good mark when the .500 is counted the way it actually matters and not with some idiotic "wins-against-losses"-style that is totally secondary in today's NHL.

Which is fine... as long as you know in the back of your mind it is really below average.

[Hemskyfanboy83]

I like to look at my team's record vs the record of the teams that play us.

For example, the Oilers are 3-2 right now. But our opponents have a 2-1-2 record against us. We have taken as many points as we have given up which I consider .500

[kingsholygrail]

W-L % is worthless in the NHL since it is a point based system. The only meaningful way to judge a team's % is by potential points in total games.

[source]

Mean > Median

or

Mean < Median

Important to consider.

[Jaymond Flurrie]

Originally Posted by Hemskyfanboy83

I like to look at my team's record vs the record of the teams that play us.

For example, the Oilers are 3-2 right now. But our opponents have a 2-1-2 record against us. We have taken as many points as we have given up which I consider .500

This is exactly how it should be. Keep the 2-1-0 system if that is the only way you can do it, but throw out the decision by "points for" (like it is now) and just use a point percentage (your points / all points shared in your games). You want to go 1.000, you win all your games in regulation.

[DL44]

Originally Posted by kingsholygrail

W-L % is worthless in the NHL since it is a point based system. The only meaningful way to judge a team's % is by potential points in total games.

heh.. the 0.560 is referring to pt %.. not winning percentage.

Originally Posted by source

Mean > Median

or

Mean < Median

Important to consider.

Definitely... in this case we are using the mean to predict the median... which in the NHL its usually pretty close.

2 factors which will skew the median:

1 - a couple of dominant teams : will likely reduce the median
2 - a couple weak team handing out pts like candy : will likely boost the median

You have both 1 and 2.. then there's a balance, and the median is again close to the mean.

The median in each conference is the 8th seed.
The median in the league would be between 15th and 16th overall.

My post to clarify is about the Mean.

[PocketNines]

Yep. However I've learned through tough experience nobody wants to hear it.

I simply subtract regulation losses from wins. My Blues are +4 at the moment (5 minus 1) in 6GP. A team with +4 and 5GP (4-0-1) is going to have a better win percentage since they have the same positive differential but in fewer games. +4 in 7GP (say, 5-1-1) is going to have a worse points percentage.

Games in hand makes things complicated at any moment's glance at the standings to determine the "real" standings, so that's why I always use wins minus reg losses. It's always perfectly accurate. Finishing +5 after a full season ALWAYS means that team has 87 points (82 +5). Finishing +6 on a 48-game schedule means 54 points, which should be the approximate playoff cutoff line this year.

If your team gets to +6 or better this 48-game season, it's probably in the playoffs. After 16 games this year, to keep pace, you want your team to be at least +2 or better.

[kingsholygrail]

Originally Posted by DL44

heh.. the 0.560 is referring to pt %.. not winning percentage.



Definitely... in this case we are using the mean to predict the median... which in the NHL its usually pretty close.

2 factors which will skew the median:

1 - a couple of dominant teams : will likely reduce the median
2 - a couple weak team handing out pts like candy : will likely boost the median

You have both 1 and 2.. then there's a balance, and the median is again close to the mean.

The median in each conference is the 8th seed.
The median in the league would be between 15th and 16th overall.

My post to clarify is about the Mean.

O_o Kings right now are at .500.

2-2-1 is 5pts in 5 games out of a potential of 10.