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Old
02-07-2013, 02:47 PM
  #226
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Originally Posted by hero View Post
Just because we've had a string of bad goalies, doesn't make Reimer any better.

Raycroft did poorly in Toronto - left, did just as poorly is now in the AHL
Toskalol did poorly in Toronto - left, couldn't find an NHL job
Giggy did okay in Toronto - left, is doing okay in Colorado
Gusty did below average in Toronto - too soon, but so far did below average in Detroit

It's not the team that's making the goalie here.
but Reimer has been significantly better than any of those goalies as a leaf.

Reimer (22-24): 78gms, 37-27-9, 6so, .912sv% --- 94pt pace
Giguere (32-33): 48gms, 17-18-6, 2so, .906sv% --- 80pt pace
Gusto (25-27): 107gms, 39-45-15, 5so, .900sv% --- 77pt pace
Toskala (30-32): 145gms, 62-54-14, 5so, .894sv% --- 87pt pace
Raycroft (26-27): 91gms, 39-34-14, 3so, .890sv% --- 86pt pace

Reimer is better than those goalies simply because he's better than those goalies.

He's the only goalie who's played like a legit NHL starting goalie for us since Belfour.

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02-07-2013, 02:50 PM
  #227
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I've been pleasantly surprised by Reimer this year, particularly his calm demeanour.

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02-07-2013, 02:55 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by HockeyThoughts View Post
Instead of comparing him to his peers why don't you show us the stats of the other Leaf goaltenders over the past 3 years.. Even these "average" stats posted by James Reimer are unheard of on the post-lockout Leafs.
That's a dishonest way of looking at it. Comparing Reimer to substandard goaltending will always make him look good. Otherwise you have the Simpsons scenario where Krusty the clown jumps into a pile of manure to avoid a different stench and states, "that's mildly better!" Is that what you want?

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02-07-2013, 02:55 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by firstemperor View Post
7 games in this year, he's right at in the middle of the pack for starting goaltenders, but I don't think anyone here, even people on this board who think highly of Reimer believe he is a better goaltender than Quick, Lundqvist, or Miller, like his stats indicate.
By age 24:

NHL

J.Reimer (#99 overall pick): 78gms, 37-27-9, 6so, .912sv% --- 94pt pace
J.Quick (#72 overall pick): 119gms, 61-44-9, 8so, .908sv% --- 94pt pace
R.Miller (#138 overall pick): 18gms, 6-11-1, 1so, .868sv% ---- 59pt pace

AHL

J.Reimer (#99 overall pick): 44gms, 24-15-3, 4so, .920sV%
J.Quick (#72 overall pick): 33gms, 17-13-2, 3so, .921sv%
R.Miller (#138 overall pick): 172gms, 92-61-16, 15so, .922sv%

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02-07-2013, 02:57 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by achtungbaby View Post
That's a dishonest way of looking at it. Comparing Reimer to substandard goaltending will always make him look good. Otherwise you have the Simpsons scenario where Krusty the clown jumps into a pile of manure to avoid a stench and states, "that's mildly better!"
Good point, unfortunately, that is the narrative of any given team's fanbase much of the time (particularly the leafs because they have a huge following). Always trying to make below average players look better than they are on paper by creating fictitious "straw mans".

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02-07-2013, 03:00 PM
  #231
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Too many variables to judge Reimer purely on a quantitative basis. He had one good half-season, the leafs are great at half-season sample sizes. His injury season may very well be an anomaly, but so can his injury-free half-season. Point is, it goes both ways.

7 games in this year, he's right at in the middle of the pack for starting goaltenders, but I don't think anyone here, even people on this board who think highly of Reimer believe he is a better goaltender than Quick, Lundqvist, or Miller, like his stats indicate.

Right now, all we really have is qualitative observations and it is very hard for someone to say Reimer is an average starting NHL goaltender. He's a lot closer to a bottom 5 starting goaltender in the NHL than he is an average starting goaltender. Not sure where people are getting this "Reimer is an average starting goaltender" notion. Point blank, one cannot name 5-7, let alone 15 teams where Reimer is the legitimate #1 goaltender.
couldn't have said it better myself, although i am pretty pleased with how reimer has done so far year.

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02-07-2013, 03:02 PM
  #232
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Question to you guys - what would Reimer have to do to prove to you that he's as good or better than other NHL goalies?

I'm assuming posting better season and career save percentages, while being much younger and inexperienced, wouldn't be enough for you...so what would it take?

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02-07-2013, 03:06 PM
  #233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Question to you guys - what would Reimer have to do to prove to you that he's as good or better than other NHL goalies?

I'm assuming posting better season and career save percentages, while being much younger and inexperienced, wouldn't be enough for you...so what would it take?
I would say... continue his current level of play for one.

Secondly, lead this team to some level of success. A playoff birth is a start.

For me, if Reimer continues this level of play for the rest of the year, I'll be convinced hes an average NHL starter. Its a matter of consistency for goalies. Any callup can come in and post a shutout or two, or even have a good year (see Steve Mason). But at the end of the day its about being able to have many more good games than bad ones.

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02-07-2013, 03:12 PM
  #234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Question to you guys - what would Reimer have to do to prove to you that he's as good or better than other NHL goalies?

I'm assuming posting better season and career save percentages, while being much younger and inexperienced, wouldn't be enough for you...so what would it take?
As mentioned, there's not much quantitative basis right now, for one to judge Reimer. It's purely qualitative at this point. Simply put, we don't have enough data.

What you just posted above is a series of purely SELECTIVE data, funny how you ignored the trajectory of Lundqvist by the way, who came in to the league, gun's blazing.

Miller had a terrible first 20-odd games to the start of his career at 24, the data is considerably skewed. Check out his sample size at FULL-TIME duty. If your goal was to prove that goalies peak at different times, you sure accomplished that. If your goal was to prove that Reimer is on a similar or better trajectory than Quick or Miller, you proved nothing.

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02-07-2013, 03:17 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by firstemperor View Post
As mentioned, there's not much quantitative basis right now, for one to judge Reimer. It's purely qualitative at this point. Simply put, we don't have enough data.

What you just posted above is a series of purely SELECTIVE data, funny how you ignored the trajectory of Lundqvist by the way, who came in to the league, gun's blazing.

Miller had a terrible first 20-odd games to the start of his career at 24, the data is considerably skewed. Check out his sample size at FULL-TIME duty. If your goal was to prove that goalies peak at different times, you sure accomplished that. If your goal was to prove that Reimer is on a similar or better trajectory than Quick or Miller, you proved nothing.
I think the point here was... Goaltending is about consistency. We've seen too many flash in the pan performances in the crease to consider Reimer a starting goaltender as of yet.

There's no question that he's shown the potential to be a very good NHL starter, and has put up numbers for short stretches that prove the talent level is there.

To me, those stats point out that there have been other very good goaltenders who at the same age as Reimer have fared the same or worse... and some very bad goaltenders have fared better. The jury is out... and itll be at least another year or two before we can say Reimer is capabale of even backstopping a team to the playoffs.

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02-07-2013, 03:21 PM
  #236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Question to you guys - what would Reimer have to do to prove to you that he's as good or better than other NHL goalies?

I'm assuming posting better season and career save percentages, while being much younger and inexperienced, wouldn't be enough for you...so what would it take?
You make wrong assumptions. He merely has to post similar or better numbers than the average of his peers over the course of a few seasons. Right now he has half a season worth of games where he has accomplished exactly that, and he has another half a season where he failed to accomplish that. I'm not saying it's not going to happen for the guy, I'm just saying that he hasn't proven enough yet.

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02-07-2013, 03:23 PM
  #237
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James Reimer's "weak glove" seems to be just about the same as the "weak glove" of most NHL starters, so I don't buy that argument. Shooters pick corners because they're easier to score on against most goalies.

Unless, you know, there's a site somewhere that shows save percentages for shots that arrive in a certain region of the net. Which would be awesome.

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02-07-2013, 03:23 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by topched View Post
I think the point here was... Goaltending is about consistency. We've seen too many flash in the pan performances in the crease to consider Reimer a starting goaltender as of yet.

There's no question that he's shown the potential to be a very good NHL starter, and has put up numbers for short stretches that prove the talent level is there.

To me, those stats point out that there have been other very good goaltenders who at the same age as Reimer have fared the same or worse... and some very bad goaltenders have fared better. The jury is out... and itll be at least another year or two before we can say Reimer is capabale of even backstopping a team to the playoffs.
Agree with you completely here. I'm taking as you agreeing with me that the stats prove virtually nothing then- it was just a series of selective data a poster used to fit his narrative. No complaints from me.

I also agree that the jury isn't out on Reimer yet. However, as I've stated, there's nothing to show, qualitatively that he'd be a very good goalie in this league anytime soon. That is merely a qualitative opinion. And I'd argue, one which will hold true enough to make the argument that he is very much, not an average starting NHL goalie right now, which is the narrative that people have been trying to instill in this thread.

I would like nothing less than for Reimer to prove me wrong on this stance. However, I don't think we should be anticipating that he will move into the upper echelon of goaltenders in this league, which is more than a requisite to become a great team in this league.

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02-07-2013, 03:25 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by firstemperor View Post
As mentioned, there's not much quantitative basis right now, for one to judge Reimer. It's purely qualitative at this point. Simply put, we don't have enough data.
and we should trust your qualitative analysis over the quantitative data at this point....why, exactly?

do you get paid for your qualitative analysis? do you know anything about goaltending at all?

Quote:
What you just posted above is a series of purely SELECTIVE data, funny how you ignored the trajectory of Lundqvist by the way, who came in to the league, gun's blazing.
There's nothing funny about that - Lundqvist has been an elite goalie from the moment he entered the league. I wouldn't argue that Reimer is as good as him, or could follow the same trajectory.

But Miller and Quick are goalies with extremely, extremely similar track records and trajectories as Reimer....and are examples that should make us feel better about Reimer's chances, not worse.


Quote:
Miller had a terrible first 20-odd games to the start of his career at 24, the data is considerably skewed. Check out his sample size at FULL-TIME duty.
Miller age 25: .914
Miller age 26: .911
Miller age 27: .906

which sample skews what?

Quote:
If your goal was to prove that goalies peak at different times, you sure accomplished that. If your goal was to prove that Reimer is on a similar or better trajectory than Quick or Miller, you proved nothing.
The goal was to show that unlike your baseless analysis, the number show that Reimer has an extremely similar track record and start to his career as goalies like Miller and Quick had, and yes, that was shown perfectly clearly.

There is one person here who hasn't shown or proven a thing, and done nothing but offer a "we can't know a young player is good until he proves it" argument, and that would be you.

It's telling, of course, that you wouldn't answer my simple question - what would Reimer have to accomplish, quantitatively, for you to admit that he might be better than some more proven goalies?

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02-07-2013, 03:26 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by achtungbaby View Post
You make wrong assumptions. He merely has to post similar or better numbers than the average of his peers over the course of a few seasons. Right now he has half a season worth of games where he has accomplished exactly that, and he has another half a season where he failed to accomplish that. I'm not saying it's not going to happen for the guy, I'm just saying that he hasn't proven enough yet.
which is true of every single young player in existence, of course.

which does not mean that every young player is not as good as older players, of course.

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02-07-2013, 03:33 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
and we should trust your qualitative analysis over the quantitative data at this point....why, exactly?

do you get paid for your qualitative analysis? do you know anything about goaltending at all?



There's nothing funny about that - Lundqvist has been an elite goalie from the moment he entered the league. I wouldn't argue that Reimer is as good as him, or could follow the same trajectory.

But Miller and Quick are goalies with extremely, extremely similar track records and trajectories as Reimer....and are examples that should make us feel better about Reimer's chances, not worse.




Miller age 25: .914
Miller age 26: .911
Miller age 27: .906

which sample skews what?


The goal was to show that unlike your baseless and meaningless analysis, the number show that Reimer has an extremely similar track record and start to his career as goalies like Miller and Quick had, and yes, that was shown perfectly clearly.

There is one person here who hasn't shown or proven a thing, and has simply made baseless claims, and then weakly attempted to dismiss any actual facts presented by anyone else - and that would be you.
So you acknowledge Lundqvist has had a significantly better trajectory than Reimer. And you acknowledge that Miller has proven himself to be more than capable of Reimer at age 25 and onwards with full-time duty (rather than your selective analysis at age 24- which is rather favourable for your narrative, don't you think?)

You could take a completely variable sample size, of terrible goaltenders, and good goaltenders- comparing trajectories ONLY AT AGE 24 (to fit your narrative), and we would have completely variable results. What does this prove? It proves that Reimer, only at age 24, has a similar/better trajectory to Quick, Miller, and insert X number of goaltenders , many of whom are probably out of the league or aren't considered favourably.

In other words, your proving nothing of substance..



No one is telling you to take my qualitative opinions to heart either. I was merely stating an opinion, not overbearing you with the idea of my opinion. That was your own prerogative.

Simply put, I was making a challenge for posters who were clamoring the idea that Reimer was an average starting NHL goaltender in this league to name me 5-7 teams, let alone 15 teams, where he is the legitimate #1 starting goaltender. I mean, that's the definition of average right?

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02-07-2013, 03:42 PM
  #242
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which is true of every single young player in existence, of course.

which does not mean that every young player is not as good as older players, of course.
Exactly, but neither does it mean that every young player is as good as older (established) players.

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02-07-2013, 03:45 PM
  #243
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You guys have to have a better argument than "young players are unproven".

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02-07-2013, 03:47 PM
  #244
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So far he is proving this year he's capable of holding the fort there in the back end. Is he the ideal candidate ? I dont think so. However if we can hold him till we actually find a solution, I am good. I believe in him and willing to give him a chance.

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02-07-2013, 03:47 PM
  #245
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You guys have to have a better argument than "young players are unproven".
You need a better argument than Reimer had a good rookie season.

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02-07-2013, 03:49 PM
  #246
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I do have a better argument than that.

My argument is that Reimer has been a very good goalie in every year at every level he's played at, at a very young age, aside from one season - and that one season he suffered a major whiplash/concussion injury 6gms into the year.

He's had one bad year. ever. and he was severely injured during it.

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02-07-2013, 03:58 PM
  #247
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I do have a better argument than that.

My argument is that Reimer has been a very good goalie in every year at every level he's played at, at a very young age, aside from one season - and that one season he suffered a major whiplash/concussion injury 6gms into the year.

He's had one bad year. ever. and he was severely injured during it.
He's 25th/33 and 30th/33 in SV%, GAA, respectively, out of all goaltenders with >78 game sample size since 2010-2011.

If that's your definition of "very good", so be it. Personally, I would preferred if you didn't make your narrative blatantly obvious by skewing data completely in your favour, like only taking subsets of data only at the age of 24, and comparing trajectories to show a favourable outcome that only fits your narrative- excluding those that don't.

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02-07-2013, 04:08 PM
  #248
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I do have a better argument than that.

My argument is that Reimer has been a very good goalie in every year at every level he's played at, at a very young age, aside from one season - and that one season he suffered a major whiplash/concussion injury 6gms into the year.

He's had one bad year. ever. and he was severely injured during it.
Getting it done in the junior and semi pro ranks is a good indicator, I agree with you there. However, you must agree that there are lists a mile long with guys who lit up the lesser leagues and didn't accomplish squat in the NHL. There are other lists of guys who have had one good NHL rookie season and didn't come close to them again. If Reimer has another great season he's proven a lot more and will have silenced a lot of his doubters. Have a little patience and let this play out.

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02-07-2013, 06:14 PM
  #249
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For me I am pleased with his play so far, and not just because he makes the saves, but how he is making the saves.
His staying back on the goal line all the time seems to have been fixed, and he seems to be battleing more.
He still looks very very "Allaire-ian" in his basic style and I see that as a very very good thing. However I have always felt the whole positional blocking approach is a fantastic base to work from. It is not the alpha and omega...just the alpha. It is an approach that helps take care of the bottom and middle of the net, but one cannot stop there and be successful.
So I don't feel like Reimer is just having a hot streak. I see tangible improvements in his play this season from last.

As far as comparing him to other starters, I just don't have enough faith in stats for goalies, because all of it is variable with the team in front. The Leafs are still ranking 2nd worst in giveaways I heard the other day. Well that is not exactly a goalie stat, but it definitely has potential to impact a goalie's stats.
It is generally accepted that save % is the best stat we have, but for me that is flawed to some extent as well.
If a goalie faces ten wrist shots from the blue line, he will likely stop them all.
If the same goalie faces ten one timers from the edge of the crease, following a lateral pass, that is a much tougher shot to stop, and it is unlikely he will stop them all.
Quality of shots/opportunities faced matters. The Leafs, especially under Ron Wilson routinely gave up a lot of quality shots/opportunities.
I also don't think it is a terribly fair comparison between Reimer and established starters.
As for Bernier, regardless of the number of games, he has not had to be the starter, and Reimer has. That is a very different mind set. (part of why I think the Canucks Schneider experiment is not working out as expected...Schneider looked great last year, but didn't have the pressure of being "the guy")
For myself I am not really interested in Bernier at all. He might turn out to be the next Roy, but from what we have so far, at best it would be a lateral move, not a step up.

My view is that last season has to be written off. It was Reimer after a fairly serious head/neck injury under Ron Wilson. I cannot say I am 100% sold on him now, but if he continues to play the way he has so far this season, I will be.

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02-07-2013, 07:17 PM
  #250
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Originally Posted by spidergoalie View Post
For me I am pleased with his play so far, and not just because he makes the saves, but how he is making the saves.
His staying back on the goal line all the time seems to have been fixed, and he seems to be battleing more.
He still looks very very "Allaire-ian" in his basic style and I see that as a very very good thing. However I have always felt the whole positional blocking approach is a fantastic base to work from. It is not the alpha and omega...just the alpha. It is an approach that helps take care of the bottom and middle of the net, but one cannot stop there and be successful.
So I don't feel like Reimer is just having a hot streak. I see tangible improvements in his play this season from last.

As far as comparing him to other starters, I just don't have enough faith in stats for goalies, because all of it is variable with the team in front. The Leafs are still ranking 2nd worst in giveaways I heard the other day. Well that is not exactly a goalie stat, but it definitely has potential to impact a goalie's stats.
It is generally accepted that save % is the best stat we have, but for me that is flawed to some extent as well.
If a goalie faces ten wrist shots from the blue line, he will likely stop them all.
If the same goalie faces ten one timers from the edge of the crease, following a lateral pass, that is a much tougher shot to stop, and it is unlikely he will stop them all.
Quality of shots/opportunities faced matters. The Leafs, especially under Ron Wilson routinely gave up a lot of quality shots/opportunities.
I also don't think it is a terribly fair comparison between Reimer and established starters.
As for Bernier, regardless of the number of games, he has not had to be the starter, and Reimer has. That is a very different mind set. (part of why I think the Canucks Schneider experiment is not working out as expected...Schneider looked great last year, but didn't have the pressure of being "the guy")
For myself I am not really interested in Bernier at all. He might turn out to be the next Roy, but from what we have so far, at best it would be a lateral move, not a step up.

My view is that last season has to be written off. It was Reimer after a fairly serious head/neck injury under Ron Wilson. I cannot say I am 100% sold on him now, but if he continues to play the way he has so far this season, I will be.
Very good observations. Another variable is that of playing goal in the Toronto market, arguably one of the most pressure-filled stages in the NHL. Certainly a goalie like Bernier for example has not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny, so it's unclear whether he would stand up as well as Reimer seems to have.

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