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02-05-2013, 08:56 AM
  #426
henchman24
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Originally Posted by hek View Post
Couldn't O'Reilly's injury be a factor in that?
Likely is. The Avs won't sign him to a deal (and probably won't talk much about one) until ROR is healed. Why would the reward him for playing overseas, trying to force their hand to a $4m deal, and getting injured while doing so?

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02-05-2013, 08:59 AM
  #427
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02-05-2013, 09:08 AM
  #428
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Man, that guy is full of inanities.

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02-05-2013, 09:22 AM
  #429
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02-05-2013, 09:40 AM
  #430
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If you forecast salary cap numbers for this team, this ROR decision comes down to a decision of whether or not they keep Stastny. I ran some numbers last night assuming Duchene and Lando make around 7, EJ eventually gets bumped up to 6.5 or so, and Varlamov makes around 4. Everyone else makes around the same.

Given that scenario, there's about 6-7M left for Stastny and ROR. ROR signs around 3-4M then Stastny has to take a paycut but they could keep both. IF ROR signs for 5M, Stastny's gone, which would also plant ROR as possibly the future #1 center of this team. I'm sure that's why there hasn't been much backing down on his part.

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02-05-2013, 09:47 AM
  #431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
If you forecast salary cap numbers for this team, this ROR decision comes down to a decision of whether or not they keep Stastny. I ran some numbers last night assuming Duchene and Lando make around 7, EJ eventually gets bumped up to 6.5 or so, and Varlamov makes around 4. Everyone else makes around the same.

Given that scenario, there's about 6-7M left for Stastny and ROR. ROR signs around 3-4M then Stastny has to take a paycut but they could keep both. IF ROR signs for 5M, Stastny's gone, which would also plant ROR as possibly the future #1 center of this team. I'm sure that's why there hasn't been much backing down on his part.
When Duchene and Lando make around 7, and EJ makes around 4 (your numbers), what do you think the cap will be? What cap number did you use for your scenario?

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02-05-2013, 09:48 AM
  #432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
If you forecast salary cap numbers for this team, this ROR decision comes down to a decision of whether or not they keep Stastny. I ran some numbers last night assuming Duchene and Lando make around 7, EJ eventually gets bumped up to 6.5 or so, and Varlamov makes around 4. Everyone else makes around the same.

Given that scenario, there's about 6-7M left for Stastny and ROR. ROR signs around 3-4M then Stastny has to take a paycut but they could keep both. IF ROR signs for 5M, Stastny's gone, which would also plant ROR as possibly the future #1 center of this team. I'm sure that's why there hasn't been much backing down on his part.
Yep. ROR is trying to force the Avs into a decision. Unfortunately this management team doesn't typically respond well to that. The most likely scenario is that ROR is shipped out and Stastny is re-signed.

Also, in that don't forget that McGinn will get a pretty good sized raise.

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02-05-2013, 09:50 AM
  #433
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Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
When Duchene and Lando make around 7, and EJ makes around 4 (your numbers), what do you think the cap will be? What cap number did you use for your scenario?
I'd figure the cap to be around $68 in 14-15. That will be the year where Duchene, Stastny, McGinn, Downie, Varly, and Landeskog all are free agents. Everyone but Stastny will get a significant raise (Downie might be let go).

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02-05-2013, 10:03 AM
  #434
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How big of an offer sheet would he have to sign for us to let him go?

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02-05-2013, 10:08 AM
  #435
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How big of an offer sheet would he have to sign for us to let him go?
Apparently anything above two years, $7 million.

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02-05-2013, 10:23 AM
  #436
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Apparently anything above two years, $7 million.
No, because an offer sheet changes the dynamics a little. It would be hard for players to use it as precedence when the Avs' hand was forced by it.

But I highly doubt he gets an offer sheet. Especially one that has any chance of working.

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02-05-2013, 10:30 AM
  #437
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No one will offersheet ROR because it would take a 5,047,000+ per deal for the Avs not to match. So not only would somebody be giving ROR a 5+ deal, they would be giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. I actually think both parties would welcome it because it brings an end to the situation one way or another.

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02-05-2013, 10:33 AM
  #438
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
If you forecast salary cap numbers for this team, this ROR decision comes down to a decision of whether or not they keep Stastny. I ran some numbers last night assuming Duchene and Lando make around 7, EJ eventually gets bumped up to 6.5 or so, and Varlamov makes around 4. Everyone else makes around the same.

Given that scenario, there's about 6-7M left for Stastny and ROR. ROR signs around 3-4M then Stastny has to take a paycut but they could keep both. IF ROR signs for 5M, Stastny's gone, which would also plant ROR as possibly the future #1 center of this team. I'm sure that's why there hasn't been much backing down on his part.
So you're assuming we don't fix out defense for the next 3 years?

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02-05-2013, 10:59 AM
  #439
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Originally Posted by Hennessy View Post
No, because an offer sheet changes the dynamics a little. It would be hard for players to use it as precedence when the Avs' hand was forced by it.

But I highly doubt he gets an offer sheet. Especially one that has any chance of working.
I know. I probably should've used the

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02-05-2013, 11:03 AM
  #440
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Remember when we joked about how this was like the South Park episode "Canada on Strike" where they strike because the world disrespects them? Turns out, it's not that far from the truth.

Wouldn't surprise me if this gets settled with gumballs and Bennigan's coupons.


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02-05-2013, 11:09 AM
  #441
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So you're assuming we don't fix out defense for the next 3 years?
At this rate? Probably not.

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02-05-2013, 11:09 AM
  #442
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On Saturday Sandy Kluff and Terry Frei were talking about the O'Reilly situation and they were both agreeing that nobody in the league would pay ROR more than 4 million. So there would not be an offer sheet and they also said that no team would give the Avs a decent trade package for ROR. So the Avs have to wait it out or take a bad package for ROR in a trade.

This was based on both of their opinions. Frei was on the inside for a while but he said he hadn't talked to a lot of people this was just his perspective on how other GM's thought about the situation.

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02-05-2013, 11:14 AM
  #443
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Here's what I used......This is by no means perfect, so here's the explanation:

1) This is just a really simple view. Bolded salaries are raises and in Stastnys case an estimated reduction. Some guys are on ELC's and are eligible for arbitration, so the contract values are not perfect. Especially for Lando and Barrie. Duchene and Varly will be RFAs. If you want me to change the values, let me know. My estimates are really high and assume long term deals, which is probably NOT realistic. Like I said, I just did this in 5-10 minutes.

2) I believe the cap is $63M or so. If someone has exact numbers and can extrapolate these numbers into the future, great. Let me know.

3) This whole chart doesn't include ROR or what he would sign for. Any reductions (Stastny leaving, Duchene or Lando or Varly signing for less than whats below) would open some room up for ROR.

4) Obviously Hejduk is leaving and the roster won't be the same for the next 5 years. I made the assumption that their replacements would have the exact same cost. No one can foresee who we will sign and what for in the future for players not even on the roster yet.

Everything in red is projected salaries. All other colors are already committed salaries.



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02-05-2013, 12:08 PM
  #444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
Here's what I used......This is by no means perfect, so here's the explanation:

1) This is just a really simple view. Bolded salaries are raises and in Stastnys case an estimated reduction. Some guys are on ELC's and are eligible for arbitration, so the contract values are not perfect. Especially for Lando and Barrie. Duchene and Varly will be RFAs. If you want me to change the values, let me know. My estimates are really high and assume long term deals, which is probably NOT realistic. Like I said, I just did this in 5-10 minutes.

2) I believe the cap is $63M or so. If someone has exact numbers and can extrapolate these numbers into the future, great. Let me know.

3) This whole chart doesn't include ROR or what he would sign for. Any reductions (Stastny leaving, Duchene or Lando or Varly signing for less than whats below) would open some room up for ROR.

4) Obviously Hejduk is leaving and the roster won't be the same for the next 5 years. I made the assumption that their replacements would have the exact same cost. No one can foresee who we will sign and what for in the future for players not even on the roster yet.

Everything in red is projected salaries. All other colors are already committed salaries.


Nice job... i'll just add my two cents:

* Landeskog's 6M average salary is too righ, IMO, same with EJ;
* If Duchene keeps his current pace, 6M is right for him;
* Varlamov's is about right too, but with a improved defense his numbers might look better and so he might comand more;
* Also, i don't believe Stastny will take a 1.1M reduction per year to stay with us.

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02-05-2013, 12:24 PM
  #445
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Nice job... i'll just add my two cents:

* Landeskog's 6M average salary is too righ, IMO, same with EJ;
* If Duchene keeps his current pace, 6M is right for him;
* Varlamov's is about right too, but with a improved defense his numbers might look better and so he might comand more;
* Also, i don't believe Stastny will take a 1.1M reduction per year to stay with us.
Agree, and would like to add that it seems evident the Avs would move Stazz anywayIF ROR proves a consistent #2. Ideally they would have had this year and up to the trade deadline next year to evaluate the situation. Currently, ROR is not proving to be a reliable anything except frustration.

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02-05-2013, 12:46 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
Here's what I used......This is by no means perfect, so here's the explanation:

1) This is just a really simple view. Bolded salaries are raises and in Stastnys case an estimated reduction. Some guys are on ELC's and are eligible for arbitration, so the contract values are not perfect. Especially for Lando and Barrie. Duchene and Varly will be RFAs. If you want me to change the values, let me know. My estimates are really high and assume long term deals, which is probably NOT realistic. Like I said, I just did this in 5-10 minutes.

2) I believe the cap is $63M or so. If someone has exact numbers and can extrapolate these numbers into the future, great. Let me know.

3) This whole chart doesn't include ROR or what he would sign for. Any reductions (Stastny leaving, Duchene or Lando or Varly signing for less than whats below) would open some room up for ROR.

4) Obviously Hejduk is leaving and the roster won't be the same for the next 5 years. I made the assumption that their replacements would have the exact same cost. No one can foresee who we will sign and what for in the future for players not even on the roster yet.

Everything in red is projected salaries. All other colors are already committed salaries.



My thoughts:

Landy won't get a 6M contract out of his ELC, especially if he is injured most of this year which it appears that this could be a possibility. He is probably looking at a bridge deal like Duchene, maybe if he has really good next season somewhere in the 4M per region.

Doubt Stastny stays on board for over a million less than what he is currently making, unless no one else offers anything good, which is doubtful considering how many teams are looking for top 6 centers.

Dependent on how McGinn plays he'll be in line for a bigger check like 3M per possibly.

Johnson probably won't hit 6M per unless his offensive numbers make a huge jump over the next 3 years. Probably looking more around 5M per if he stays at current offensive output.

I see a player like Jones getting bought out, if he doesn't get bought out, no way he makes 4M on his next contract. He'll be lucky to get 2.5M.

Hejduk will be gone no later than next season.

Sgarbossa/Elliott/Barrie/Hishon (basically any top prospect) is a wildcard. If any of them start to produce their contracts will take on big raises

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02-05-2013, 02:38 PM
  #447
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During a normal season, unsigned RFAs are ineligible to play if they are still unsigned by December 1st. Has the NHL released that date for this shortened season?

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02-05-2013, 02:41 PM
  #448
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During a normal season, unsigned RFAs are ineligible to play if they are still unsigned by December 1st. Has the NHL released that date for this shortened season?
No such date this season.

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02-05-2013, 02:42 PM
  #449
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During a normal season, unsigned RFAs are ineligible to play if they are still unsigned by December 1st. Has the NHL released that date for this shortened season?
Not that I'm aware of, they may not have one because of the shortened season.

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02-05-2013, 02:44 PM
  #450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
Here's what I used......This is by no means perfect, so here's the explanation:

1) This is just a really simple view. Bolded salaries are raises and in Stastnys case an estimated reduction. Some guys are on ELC's and are eligible for arbitration, so the contract values are not perfect. Especially for Lando and Barrie. Duchene and Varly will be RFAs. If you want me to change the values, let me know. My estimates are really high and assume long term deals, which is probably NOT realistic. Like I said, I just did this in 5-10 minutes.

2) I believe the cap is $63M or so. If someone has exact numbers and can extrapolate these numbers into the future, great. Let me know.

3) This whole chart doesn't include ROR or what he would sign for. Any reductions (Stastny leaving, Duchene or Lando or Varly signing for less than whats below) would open some room up for ROR.

4) Obviously Hejduk is leaving and the roster won't be the same for the next 5 years. I made the assumption that their replacements would have the exact same cost. No one can foresee who we will sign and what for in the future for players not even on the roster yet.

Everything in red is projected salaries. All other colors are already committed salaries.


All I have to say is that's a piss poor team that's spending the cap.

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