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Does Henrik Zetterberg have a shot at the Hall?

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02-20-2013, 06:25 PM
  #1
Passchendaele
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Does Henrik Zetterberg have a shot at the Hall?

645 career points in 684 games. One of the best two way forwards of his generation. A Conn Smythe and a Cup.

The numbers don't look great, but he might have lost near 100 points if we take in consideration the 116 games lost because of both lockouts.

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02-20-2013, 06:26 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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He has a shot, but I think he's still pretty far away. Needs to keep doing what he's doing for a good 5 more years or so.

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02-20-2013, 06:45 PM
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I don't want to hijack this thread, but I wonder, I assume Datsyuk has had a better career point-wise, so if Zetterberg is close, does that mean Datsyuk has a shot too?

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02-20-2013, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
I don't want to hijack this thread, but I wonder, I assume Datsyuk has had a better career point-wise, so if Zetterberg is close, does that mean Datsyuk has a shot too?
At this point Datsyuk will probably make it. The HHOF loves counting trophies and Datsyuk has a lot of them to go with his slightly-better-than-Zetterberg offense

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02-20-2013, 07:04 PM
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He's better than a lot of the players in the HOF so yes he has a shot.

He's playing excellent now. I think he's deserving if he has a few more good seasons.

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02-20-2013, 07:41 PM
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Both Datsyuk and Zetterberg will make it if they keep playing at this pace. Datsyuk is already in though. I mean, people even use the word "Datsyukian" to describe hockey plays.

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02-20-2013, 09:38 PM
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Zetterberg is practically a shoe-in.

There are two major question-marks to his candidacy, and neither has to do with how he has performed so far.

1. What will he do from now on?

2. How will voters account for the lockouts? Zetterberg would have had his breakout season a year earlier, and ~80 more points, had it not been for the 2005 lockout. He's better than a point per game right now and was IMHO the best NHLer playing overseas during the lockout (he was certainly the best in the NLA by a wide margin). So there's another 35+ points.

If he's at 765 in 800 right now, does that change what people are thinking given that he's still only 32? That's almost as many points as Bure in only 100 more games. Except Zetterberg's defense over his career has been Selke caliber (he should have won at least two IMHO) and Bure's defense well... wasn't.

Or even better, since Bure started his career in a high-scoring era and then played into the DPE, while Zetterberg has played in a mix of eras, let's say he has a season in 04-05 similar to his 07-08 (like I said earlier it would have been ~80-85 points) and he gets his production for the missing 34 of this season projected out based on his play this year, but we'll do it based on adjusted stats instead of raw stats.

That means Bure has 823 in 709. Zetterberg's "actual" is 665 in 684. Zetterberg adds another 100 in 75 for 04-05, and 45 in 34 more from this season. Placing Zetterberg at 810 in 793. Not quite Bure-level offense. But close enough that Zetterberg's elite defense and the fact that Bure already is a Hall of Famer should make this question a no-brainer.

I think Zetterberg has a few more strong years left of at/near PPG level hockey, which would put him probably to 1100-1200 points in a comparable number of games played. If he keeps up his current level of play this season, I can see him being named to the first-team, winning the Selke, and being one of the major contenders for the Hart (likely not the winner though).

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02-20-2013, 10:01 PM
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I highly doubt Zetterberg would have gotten 100 points in 75 games had there been a season in 04-05...

And what does Bure have to do with this?

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02-20-2013, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Litework View Post
I highly doubt Zetterberg would have gotten 100 points in 75 games had there been a season in 04-05...
The 100 points is "adjusted" stats, as done by hockey-reference.com.

My numbers that I picked for his 04-05 season were based on the (highly likely) situation that he would have had his breakout season a year earlier without the 04-05 lockout. So I just took his 04-05 numbers and added them in again.

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02-20-2013, 10:19 PM
  #10
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
The 100 points is "adjusted" stats, as done by hockey-reference.com.

My numbers that I picked for his 04-05 season were based on the (highly likely) situation that he would have had his breakout season a year earlier without the 04-05 lockout. So I just took his 04-05 numbers and added them in again.
Well, his breakout year was 85 points, so why don't you just give him 85 point and not 100. 100 seems pretty outrageous for Zetterberg.

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02-20-2013, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
Well, his breakout year was 85 points, so why don't you just give him 85 point and not 100. 100 seems pretty outrageous for Zetterberg.
(MOD)

I suggested Zetterberg would have had a similar season, and ended up with Zetterberg at around 800 points including pro-rated this season.

THEN I did a "what if" because Bure's first few seasons were played in a much higher scoring era (remember, in his sophomore season the average GPG was something like 7.5) and I used the "adjusted stats" found at hockey-reference.com to do so. Zetterberg's 85 becomes 100 because in the 07-08 season the average GPG was below 6 by a fair bit (everything is adjusted to 6 goals per game on HR.com).


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02-20-2013, 10:45 PM
  #12
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Point Finishes
Zetterberg: 6, 9, 20
Bure: 2, 3, 5, 7, 13

Goal Finishes
Zetterberg: 5, 14
Bure: 1, 1, 1, 3, 5, 16

Assists Finishes
Zetterberg: 5, 16

Zetterberg: 0x 1st AS, 1x 2nd AS
Bure: 1x 1st AS, 2x 2nd AS


I don't know how anyone can argue they're close offensively. Does Zetterberg's defensive play really make up for that massive offensive gap?

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02-21-2013, 12:55 AM
  #13
pdd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
Point Finishes
Zetterberg: 6, 9, 20
Bure: 2, 3, 5, 7, 13

Goal Finishes
Zetterberg: 5, 14
Bure: 1, 1, 1, 3, 5, 16

Assists Finishes
Zetterberg: 5, 16

Zetterberg: 0x 1st AS, 1x 2nd AS
Bure: 1x 1st AS, 2x 2nd AS


I don't know how anyone can argue they're close offensively. Does Zetterberg's defensive play really make up for that massive offensive gap?
Bure was lucky to get his first-team selection. Jagr didn't get PP time with Mario, and Neely was hurt half of the season. If either of those conditions were removed, Bure is 2nd-team at best.

To put it into context, I'll use Steve Yzerman:
In 1993-94, Pavel Bure scored 58 ES points in 76 games (0.76). Steve Yzerman scored 52 ES points in 58 games (0.90).

By comparison, Neely had 47 in 49 (0.96), and Jagr had 70 in 80 (0.88). Being healthy and on the first PP is why Bure beat those two; if all three were healthy and on the first PP, Bure is likely last.

Zetterberg, in contrast, may have lost all-star selections due to positional confusion (he has been voted in at multiple forward positions multiple times, and in 2007-08 was 2nd among LW AND 6th among centers). Bure, despite switching wings at times early in his career, never faced this type of situation.

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02-21-2013, 01:46 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Bure was lucky to get his first-team selection. Jagr didn't get PP time with Mario, and Neely was hurt half of the season. If either of those conditions were removed, Bure is 2nd-team at best.

To put it into context, I'll use Steve Yzerman:
In 1993-94, Pavel Bure scored 58 ES points in 76 games (0.76). Steve Yzerman scored 52 ES points in 58 games (0.90).

By comparison, Neely had 47 in 49 (0.96), and Jagr had 70 in 80 (0.88). Being healthy and on the first PP is why Bure beat those two; if all three were healthy and on the first PP, Bure is likely last.

Zetterberg, in contrast, may have lost all-star selections due to positional confusion (he has been voted in at multiple forward positions multiple times, and in 2007-08 was 2nd among LW AND 6th among centers). Bure, despite switching wings at times early in his career, never faced this type of situation.
Mario played 37 games that year. 36 year old Joe Mullen (was 5th in points on the Pens) would have placed 2nd on the Canucks in scoring that year. Neely took passes from Oates and Bourque. Bure had who? Cliff Ronning and Jyrki Lumme? Youre right, Bure was lucky to play with those 2 Hall of Famers.

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02-21-2013, 01:58 AM
  #15
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Zetterberg is practically a shoe-in.

There are two major question-marks to his candidacy, and neither has to do with how he has performed so far.

1. What will he do from now on?

2. How will voters account for the lockouts? Zetterberg would have had his breakout season a year earlier, and ~80 more points, had it not been for the 2005 lockout. He's better than a point per game right now and was IMHO the best NHLer playing overseas during the lockout (he was certainly the best in the NLA by a wide margin). So there's another 35+ points.

If he's at 765 in 800 right now, does that change what people are thinking given that he's still only 32? That's almost as many points as Bure in only 100 more games. Except Zetterberg's defense over his career has been Selke caliber (he should have won at least two IMHO) and Bure's defense well... wasn't.

Or even better, since Bure started his career in a high-scoring era and then played into the DPE, while Zetterberg has played in a mix of eras, let's say he has a season in 04-05 similar to his 07-08 (like I said earlier it would have been ~80-85 points) and he gets his production for the missing 34 of this season projected out based on his play this year, but we'll do it based on adjusted stats instead of raw stats.

That means Bure has 823 in 709. Zetterberg's "actual" is 665 in 684. Zetterberg adds another 100 in 75 for 04-05, and 45 in 34 more from this season. Placing Zetterberg at 810 in 793. Not quite Bure-level offense. But close enough that Zetterberg's elite defense and the fact that Bure already is a Hall of Famer should make this question a no-brainer.

I think Zetterberg has a few more strong years left of at/near PPG level hockey, which would put him probably to 1100-1200 points in a comparable number of games played. If he keeps up his current level of play this season, I can see him being named to the first-team, winning the Selke, and being one of the major contenders for the Hart (likely not the winner though).
Bure missed time due to lockout to.

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02-21-2013, 02:07 AM
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
Bure missed time due to lockout to.
Adjusted stats account for the short season. So if we want to be *really* accurate, we can add 33 more GP to Bure because his adjusted points for 94-95 were increased based on the season length.

That puts him at 823 in 742, compared to Z's 810 in 793.

Projecting out to 82 game seasons, we're looking at:

Bure: 91pt
Zetterberg: 84pt

That's the offensive difference between the two.

How much of a defensive difference do you think there is?

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02-21-2013, 02:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Adjusted stats account for the short season. So if we want to be *really* accurate, we can add 33 more GP to Bure because his adjusted points for 94-95 were increased based on the season length.

That puts him at 823 in 742, compared to Z's 810 in 793.

Projecting out to 82 game seasons, we're looking at:

Bure: 91pt
Zetterberg: 84pt

That's the offensive difference between the two.

How much of a defensive difference do you think there is?
That's why the stats can't be taken seriously.

Zetterberg won't make the Hall imo. Not enough hardware.

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02-21-2013, 02:19 AM
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Don't forget the Olympic gold.
Right now it's doubtful, but give it a few more years and I think he will get in. Not first ballot perhaps but soon enough.

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02-21-2013, 02:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Adjusted stats account for the short season. So if we want to be *really* accurate, we can add 33 more GP to Bure because his adjusted points for 94-95 were increased based on the season length.

That puts him at 823 in 742, compared to Z's 810 in 793.

Projecting out to 82 game seasons, we're looking at:

Bure: 91pt
Zetterberg: 84pt

That's the offensive difference between the two.

How much of a defensive difference do you think there is?
Listen, I actually do think there is a case that Zetterberg's overall game makes him as valuable as Pavel Bure. But if you want to be taken seriously, you probably shouldn't abuse statistics like this. I find it really hard to believe that you seriously think giving Zetterberg credit for 100 adjusted points in 2004-05 is fair when he only hit that level once in his career (in 2007-08) and never came close in any other season.

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02-21-2013, 02:23 AM
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That's why the stats can't be taken seriously.

Zetterberg won't make the Hall imo. Not enough hardware.
The only hardware Joe Nieuwendyk has on Zetterberg is a Calder. Dino Ciccarelli and Bernie Federko have less hardware than Zetterberg.

I don't think Zetterberg is a guy like Bure who can get in on peak alone, but his peak is high enough where he would likely get in on career value if he keeps it up for a number of more years, IMO.

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02-21-2013, 02:27 AM
  #21
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He's better than his (offensive) stats indicate, as well as his trophies/all-star team selections, but he still has some way to go.

Also Zetterberg is nowhere near peak Bure offensively...

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02-21-2013, 02:30 AM
  #22
TheDevilMadeMe
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Also Zetterberg is nowhere near peak Bure offensively...
I don't think anyone actually believes that. Eva unit zero is certainly gaining a reputation for playing with statistics in funny ways that always benefit Red Wings players, though.

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02-21-2013, 02:44 AM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The only hardware Joe Nieuwendyk has on Zetterberg is a Calder. Dino Ciccarelli and Bernie Federko have less hardware than Zetterberg.

I don't think Zetterberg is a guy like Bure who can get in on peak alone, but his peak is high enough where he would likely get in on career value if he keeps it up for a number of more years, IMO.
Its funny how Ciccarelli and Federko (both undeserving) are always brought up instantly as the worst HOF inductions. Yet guys like Steve Shutt and Bill Barber are just as bad if not worse imo, and you hardly hear their names brought up.

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02-21-2013, 03:01 AM
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I don't think anyone actually believes that. Eva unit zero is certainly gaining a reputation for playing with statistics in funny ways that always benefit Red Wings players, though.
Yeah Eva goes over the top on a few Red Wings (or former in the case of Hudler.)... He overrates Yzerman pretty significantly and he'll defend and argue for Zetterberg to no end.

Zetterberg, for example, is far from a shoe-in at this point in time. If he can play at the level he has to start this season for about 3-4 more it would go a long way. Offensively he's got to remain at a high level though, as his 2-way reputation will only take carry him so far.

As it stands right now Zetterberg has two strong building blocks: Peak and Postseason. Those are obviously two huge focal points on a HHOF resume, but he's got to continue to add to make a legit case.

On paper, his regular season work looks a bit underwhelming in comparison to his postseason and peak. His best regular season was in fact the season that he happened to play alongside Datsyuk most nights. Coincidence? I don't know. But if he can manage to play at this current level it'll significantly improve that part of his resume. Is it practical? Time will tell. On top of this his postseason success must continue as well. Detroit needs at least one more solid run before he's done though IMO. Doesn't necessarily have to be a Cup, but a long run where he's playing at a high level.

Zetterberg was one of, if not the best 2-way player in the world during his peak. The only player who really can take that away from him is his own teammate. And when you consider that he has a Conn Smythe and was literally one win away from back-to-back Conn Smythes, he's clearly played some HHOF worthy hockey. Those scoring finishes don't show off great though, so he needs to continue to add to them.

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02-21-2013, 05:10 AM
  #25
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As a swede i'm looking forward to seeing him shut out Crosby in the 2014 Games, just as he unfortunately did in the 2008 Stanley Cup finals. Then we'll talk again.

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